Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament: China Report

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 23rd October 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

As the noble Lord will be aware, our relationships with key partners provide us with platforms across a number of areas in the Indo-Pacific. We have a permanent presence in Brunei, and the British Defence Singapore Support Unit. He is correct that the United Kingdom and the United States share a defence facility in the British Indian Ocean Territory. That plays a vital role in our efforts to keep the region secure. We are very clear about its strategic significance and continue to have due regard to the significance of that location.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Question mentions the two integrated reviews. The first, in 2021, was a very good and helpful document but unfortunately came out before the Russian assault on Ukraine. The second, refreshing the first, was also excellent but unfortunately came out before the present Israel-Hamas horror and the complete change to the map of the Middle East. Can the Minister encourage the Cabinet Office not to be deterred from having a go at a third one, maybe in the early spring of next year, because these documents are genuinely valuable in showing our purpose and direction in a very fast-changing world?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for his recognition of the strategic significance of these documents and the enduring messages which both contain and which continue to suggest a pungent relevance to events in the world today. The issues to which he refers are deeply troubling and complex. As to whether the Government would contemplate a further integrated review, I cannot say, but I acknowledge his concern at the extent of global tumult that we are witnessing today.

Wagner Group

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 11th July 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that although all eyes are understandably on Ukraine and Moscow regarding the Wagner Group, the noble Lord, Lord West, is right to raise the activities of the Russian militias and the Chinese right across the Sahel and throughout the whole of Africa? Will she therefore ensure that her colleagues and policymakers are really focused on this other war, as eyes tend to drift away to Ukrainian affairs, and make sure that we make every effort to reinforce security against the authoritarian regimes, which in many areas are winning? This is of particular note since 21 of the African countries being invaded by the Chinese are Commonwealth members.

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My noble friend makes a very important point. He will be aware that through the United Nations and our other relationships and partnerships, whether multilaterally or bilaterally, we are very cognisant of that threat. He is correct that Wagner is a pernicious and unwelcome presence in Africa, and absolutely right that there are other influences at play.

Defence Policy (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Friday 30th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is an honour and a pleasure to be at the end of the Back-Bench contributions to this very important debate and to have listened to the extremely powerful speeches and the undercurrent of worry and discontent that has run through almost all of them. This report from the International Relations and Defence Committee has given us the chance to examine both the two integrated review papers from the Government on foreign policy and the last defence Command Paper. As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said, we are waiting for the next one, although the report was published before the second, so-called “refreshed”, integrated review.

I give all credit to the committee, which the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, and I were proud to help instigate and set up seven years ago. It has proved its worth. I also give all credit to my noble friend Lady Anelay, my successor as chair, for her highly successful chairmanship and for securing and opening this debate, which she did with great appeal and effect.

The two integrated review papers of 2021 and 2023 have been curiously undiscussed. This debate has made it pretty clear why that is so: we have not had the chance or an opportunity, and in a way they have almost fallen outside and behind the rapid pace of events. “Integration” was the right concept in both papers, not least since today’s adversaries are weaponising nearly every aspect of daily life, far outside the military zone and far into areas which have never before been touched by warfare, defence or external security. The papers were right to avoid calling it a plan or strategy, because we all remember General von Moltke’s classic remark that no strategy or plan ever survives first contact with the enemy, so flexibility and uncertainty are understandable.

However, I share some of the committee’s scepticism and disappointment when it spoke in its report of a lack of focus in these integrated reviews and said that there was a lack of priorities, in both the 2021 and 2023 versions. In fact, I would go further in three respects. First, both reviews continue to underestimate the evolving power of new international networks. Yes, of course they mention ASEAN, the five-power defence pact Five Eyes and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which have been mentioned in the debate. We also have the AUKUS plans with the Australians and Americans to build submarines that are nuclear-powered, but not equipped with nuclear weapons. We are also engaged in an enormous project with Japan for the next combat air programme, and a lot of other things go in with that which to me are extremely welcome.

All that is so, but there are huge changes in the Middle East. The role of China there is growing all the time, and for instance there is Israel’s move closer to the Saudis and the new Saudi-Iranian rapport, which may or may not come to something. None of that comes into the integrated reviews at all, as the present chairman of the committee, my noble friend Lord Ashton, pointed out in his reply to the Government’s comment and as my noble friend Lady Anelay mentioned in her opening speech. Nor does the African Union seeking to join the G20, which is an enormous change in world affairs, feature at all.

There was no more than a passing reference to the biggest network of all: the modern Commonwealth, which could well prove our gateway to Asia’s and Africa’s vast new markets, where all the growth is going to be. It could be one of our greatest assets in the changed world, as a bulwark against the Chinese expansionism and maritime intrusions which have been referred to. None of that gets mentioned in these documents at all. Indeed, some of us have suggested that the 56-nation network which is the Commonwealth, with several more countries interested in joining it, could become a sort of safe haven from a divided world as the great powers slug out their 20th-century quarrels and ideological conflicts, which are less and less relevant to the problems that these nations face. That is my first concern.

Secondly, both documents shy away from our changing relationship with a changing USA. We remain, of course, the closest partners and friends but they are not our bosses; they are our partners and we work with them. We are in no way the puppets of Washington, nor should we be. That relationship needs much more careful updating than merely repeating the hopes of the previous century, and that updating is long overdue. Why is this crucial? Because the majority of independent nations, many in the Commonwealth, which have been called by many commentators the neo-non-aligned—quite different from the Bandung non-aligned of the previous century—are watching to see where we, the British, stand. They want neither Chinese hegemony nor American puppetdom. Of course, they are quite ready to take what they can from both, and rightly so, to preserve their independence in this new age.

Thirdly, eyes are understandably on Ukraine and the hideous but conventional war there, which some experts said would never happen—but it has—and on NATO and its need for solidarity and expansion. But eyes should also be, and are not enough, on what might be called the autocracies’ other wars, as China, followed to a more violent extent by Russia, is quietly hoovering up the developing world and large parts of the Sahel and central Africa, including numerous smaller Commonwealth islands in the south seas and the Caribbean, and African coastal states, while we sit watching, seemingly unaware of what is happening, to judge by the reviews. We should be thinking about how to put the autocracies on the defensive; yet instead, they appear to be turning the Commonwealth network, the chain of what should be bastions of liberty and freedom, the other way around, using them as their advance points of intrusion into the rest of the world.

The late Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the much underestimated former UN Secretary-General, once said, and repeated to me, that “Everyone must have a country to love and believe in”. Well, we love our country and believe in its future, in utterly transformed conditions, with much more rapid change to come immediately ahead. Nothing like enough of that comes through in either of the government documents looked at in this excellent report. We need to do much more thinking and to be less confined in silos, and a much deeper effect needs to be achieved. Like others, I look forward to hearing what our Front-Bench sages have to say on that.

Ukraine: Ministry of Defence Strategy

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 15th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I commend the noble Lord on his change of position; many people will identify and sympathise with his stance. If I may seek to reassure him, it has been the UK Government’s very clear position in relation to trying to bring this war to an end that only by going into peace negotiations from a position of military, economic and diplomatic strength will Ukraine secure a strong, just and lasting sustainable peace. Sadly, we are not there yet. I seek to reassure him that within the MoD, through various channels, ambitious and very effective attempts have been made to disseminate information within Russia, with evidence that this information is being increasingly received and taken up. He makes the important point that a powerful and cogent persuader in relation to President Putin will come from within Russia, when his country realises that this is a disastrous enterprise that it has embarked upon.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, in any review of strategy will my noble friend and the whole Government bear in mind very carefully the role of China in this situation? China is of course a country that supports Russia, and we all know that Putin very badly needs its support, but the Chinese are absolutely determined to oppose his possible use of nuclear weapons, which he keeps threatening. Is this not a key factor in calling Putin’s bluff, and should it not encourage us to press on and give Ukraine every weapon it needs, including aircraft cover, to gain the upper hand as soon as possible?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I express complete agreement with the last point made by my noble friend. Yes, I agree with his proposition. We welcome China’s engagement with President Zelensky. We expect China, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, to stand up for the United Nations charter and for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We hope China will use its influence with President Putin to persuade Russia to cease its attacks, withdraw its troops and hopefully bring an end to the war.

Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 2nd May 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

Obviously we remain engaged with Ukraine on its immediate needs and how best we, in conjunction with partners, can respond to them. I am not at liberty to disclose operational matters, for reasons widely understood. We constantly monitor the situation, and we will continue to do whatever we can to support Ukraine as it tries to repel this illegal invader.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Will my noble friend use her influence to see whether, in future Ukraine Statements, we could learn a little more about the state of internal morale inside Russia in the face of the appalling slaughter, which is almost reminiscent of the First World War? The level of morale in Russia itself, and the pressures on the Government, may be the decisive factor in ensuring that this hideous horror comes to an end. Does she see any comparison with the Russian mood when Russian troops had to retreat from failure in Afghanistan, which of course helped to bring about the collapse of the whole Soviet Union in those days?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

Many people will be in sympathy with the important point made by my noble friend. We do everything that we can through intelligence outlets to try to ascertain what is happening in Russia—what the mood is and what the sentiment is. It is difficult to elicit any specific information, apart from a general observation that there is now evidence that morale is being impacted by this illegal war in Ukraine. Increasingly within Russia, as a consequence of that war, the brutal effect upon families who have lost loved ones or seen loved ones seriously injured is beginning to tell its own story. My noble friend makes an important point. I wish that I had some more specific instrument available to me to ascertain in detail what he asks. We continue to monitor the situation as best we can.

UK Undersea Infrastructure: Hostile Activity

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 25th April 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I in no way disagree with the noble Lord’s final conclusion. It is recognised across government, which is why a number of government departments have a role to play in protecting that critical national infrastructure. We certainly regard these installations as essential to our national infrastructure and monitor a variety of risks that they face. The noble Lord will understand that these subsea cables are predominantly owned and operated privately, but key departments work closely with their owners. Supporting that is the national risk register, the National Protective Security Authority and the National Cyber Security Centre. There is a comprehensive framework to support the private owners and operators of these cables, but the MoD has and discharges a critical role in monitoring threat.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, if, as is reported in the newspapers today, the plan is now to turn the whole north Atlantic into one gigantic system of wind farms on an international basis, the effect would be to turn the whole seabed of the north Atlantic into a cat’s cradle of vital undersea electric power lines. Are we prepared, in moving forward to this fossil-free electric world that we are heading for, to safeguard those lines, since they could, if interfered with, put at risk not merely 25% of our electricity supply but our entire electricity supply when the wind is blowing?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I think we all agree that the overall objective of increasing our usage of renewable energy is laudable and to be commended, but my noble friend is correct that the installation of infrastructure brings with it an obvious degree of risk. As I indicated to the noble Lord, Lord West, across government there are a range of departments with responsibilities in this field. As far as the MoD is concerned, we actively monitor threat. When it comes to looking at, for example, Russian activity in either the Baltic Sea or the North Sea, noble Lords will understand that we regularly assess by our maritime presence what is happening. The Russians know that we know they know what we are doing.

Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 9th February 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I am absolutely delighted to follow the maiden speech of my noble and long-standing friend Lord Soames, which contained much wisdom, as we have just heard. It was a very fine speech. I remind your Lordships that my noble friend, throughout the whole of his career, has been a beacon of balance and common sense in a world plagued by distorting polarisation and extremism, and has enormous experience, including his time as a highly successful Defence Minister. In my view we are indeed lucky to have him with us. We should all listen very closely to what he says, especially on these intractable world issues, which seem remote to some but in fact affect us all, our future and our children’s future.

This dreadful war is being fought on three fronts, if not more. There is the battlefield war, where we are now being told to expect an imminent and major Russian assault, and maybe some nasty blows. How this has come about, I do not know. They will be full of cunning—full of Russian maskirovka, as they call it—and difficult to anticipate. There is the war of sanctions, finance and trade, and especially energy trade. I am very glad to see the resuscitation of my old department, Energy, which will help to handle the very difficult problems lying ahead. There is the shadowy war of cyber and intelligence, fake news, and attempts at demoralisation and undermining civil order.

On the battlefield, I hope the enthusiasm with which we all greeted President Zelensky in Westminster Hall yesterday lunchtime will now be followed not just by tanks—that is good—but by much longer-range missiles, helicopters and advanced drones, which are improving technologically all the time; and, from the United States, if we can help and support them and jog them along, F16s. Without these coming—and coming in time—I foresee a prolonged and bloody stalemate at best. Even then, much more will be needed on other fronts as well.

I am going to focus on the other front where there could be a breakthrough: via sanctions and economic pressures, and Russian trade isolation. The question is, have sanctions of all kinds worked so far, and what more could be done? The answer to whether they have worked is, awkwardly, yes and no. On the “no” side, the Russian economy is not yet crippled and Putin has not withdrawn; on the contrary, he is gearing up for new assaults. The rouble is stronger, not weaker, than at the start of all this. The $60 cap on Russian oil, along with insurance sanctions, is not much different from what Russia was getting anyway, and Russian oil and frozen gas are pouring into Asia at a discount, benefiting hugely countries like China, which I cannot believe is something we intended or wanted. A lot of this oil is being moved illegally by so-called ghost fleets, evading Western eyes. As a result, Russian crude exports have surged enormously this last month, even if their revenues have not. The reality is that half the world is not playing the Western game, which means that the sanctions system is being undermined constantly.

On the other hand, turning to a more optimistic stance, Russian GDP is heavily down, some say by at least 15%. There is a massive disinvestment and capital flight, where people can get their money out—and they will find the means to do so. The Russian budget deficit is up to 6% of GDP and, much more encouragingly, Europe is now in far better position on energy resources than last year. Gas storage facilities are almost full, except, regrettably, here in the UK, where we are still arguing about who should pay for the storage we should have had from the start. Overall, Russia has much less leverage on western Europe today than it did a year ago.

The issue now is: should the wider world try to tighten sanctions further and, as some suggest, make the oil price cap much lower still—say, $35? Would that really begin to limit Putin’s capacity to wage this war? It is a very difficult call, with events often backfiring and unfolding in the opposite way from that intended. Yet it is here, in this sphere of economic pressures, with the major political consequences that could follow inside Russia, that the real weak point could lie.

Whatever happens on the battlefield now, the best supporting strategy could be to aim at increasingly isolating Russia, as the unquestioned pariah in the comity of nations, from its markets, from its arms and component suppliers, from investors, from so-called neutrals, even getting China to back a little further away from its old ally, as has been hinted at by others. Remember, China is scared stiff that Putin will go nuclear and ruin its world business and recovery from Covid, as backchannel discussions with the Chinese are confirming all the time. Please remember also that China now accounts for 30% of all world manufacturing.

If we could weaken Chinese support; persuade India—which my noble friend Lord Soames rightly mentioned—to come round, despite its long-standing reliance on Russian goods and arms; and persuade our 55 like-minded fellow Commonwealth members to stand firm, that would be a real strategy. We could then take a bold leap internationally which might help to break the deadlocks on the ground which will otherwise develop. This should be the overwhelming and priority task for our diplomacy and national security strategy but, quite frankly, attention on this external aspect has been rather on the slow side and, from my point of view, far too weak from the start.

When Russia’s brutal invasion began, we found that half our Commonwealth friends did not even see things our way, as the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, rightly reminded us. We then found that our supposed friends in the Middle East and the Gulf—who are always claiming such close relations with us—still wanted to keep in with the Russians and that OPEC had other priorities than easing our unbearable gas and oil costs by quickly pumping more oil, as it could well have done. Those countries were looking a different way altogether.

Things are now easing a bit. In 2023, there is every chance that energy prices will come down—what goes up does come down in an immense cycle of investment in the energy field. However, this is where we should press much harder, building relations, mending fences and using the international influence and powers of persuasion which were always available to us, and always here, but which we neglected. We should now use them much more vigorously.

Whatever the resistance of the brave Ukrainian soldiery, it is only by leveraging up a solid world front all around against Russia and by intensifying internal hardship and anger inside Russia that the pressure on the Putin gang, or on Putin himself, might break the stalemate, force Russian withdrawal and begin Russia’s return to sanity as a nation in the comity of nations. That is the brutal truth. The fight continues on the ground, but the more it can be reinforced by these other strategies, the better the chances are of—as Zelensky himself said yesterday—

“victory over the very idea of the war”,

and the better the chances are of the closure of this unjust, unjustified and barbaric conflict.

Ukraine: Russian Drone Attacks

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 29th November 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, although concerns about the use of drones are justified, are not both sides—Ukraine and Russia—using them, the Ukrainians very cleverly? A year or so ago, the Azerbaijanis showed that drones can inflict terrific damage on all tanks, unless they are very clever. Is it not evident that drones really are going to be the weapon of the future and that most significant armies are developing them? Can the Minister assure us that, although we are not involved in the ground fighting in Ukraine, we are building up adequate supplies here in Britain? Can she also assure us that we are making them ourselves—or are we importing them?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I have observed before in this Chamber that drones—unmanned aerial vehicles—are part of the UK’s defence capability. My noble friend makes an interesting point. The war in Ukraine has been instructive as to how current warfare is developing and what new stratagems and forms of equipment are necessary to conduct it. He is quite right that unmanned aerial vehicles have a role to perform.

Mali: UN Peacekeeping Mission

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2022 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My understanding is that a total of £79.85 million has currently been committed to the deployment through the Conflict, Stability and Security Fund. I emphasise that the decision to withdraw is nothing to do with money—I wish to make that clear to the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe. It is to do with a fundamental change in the operational environment, which means that we are trying to support a peacekeeping mission when the host country is not prepared to co-operate on that objective and is enlisting the help of parties that have a directly inimical attitude to such an objective.

As to future funding, we have to look at the Accra initiative and see what unfolds from that. We have not yet asked His Majesty’s Treasury to fund that initiative. When we know more about what is needed and how much funding we will apply for, we will make sure that this is an agreed, cross-government effort. The noble and gallant Lord will remember that Operation Newcombe, our contribution to Mali, was resourced by two different funds. It was resourced by the special reserve for our support to Operation Barkhane and the Conflict, Stability and Security Fund for our contribution to the MINUSMA mission.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, we must all feel deep sorrow for the people of Mali if they are to be left to the tender mercies of the Wagner Group, as looks all too likely. I should have thought the Government of Mali would rue the day they got in with that lot. Can my noble friend elaborate, which she is very good at doing, on the phrases in the Statement and exactly what they mean? What is the implication of

“rebalancing our deployment alongside France, the EU and other like-minded allies”

and

“preventing further contagion of the insurgency”—[Official Report, Commons, 14/11/22; col. 401.]

in a whole string of countries in the region? Does that mean we will redeploy some of our troops, military effort and equipment to these other countries? Will we concentrate just on those that happen to be in the Commonwealth, such as Togo and Ghana, or will we put troops in Niger? Can she give us just a little more indication, even though decisions have yet to be made, on what the broad aim is—to leave troops in the area or to take them all away?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I am not sure that it is possible to give a specific response to my noble friend’s question; reverting to the Accra initiative, I think a great deal of discussion has to be had as to how we take forward a concerted desire to support these west African states, with a mixture of military intervention—or military support rather—if that is required, and advice and support for the political or economic regimes. A number of factors have to be taken into account. Mali is, of course, an observer member of the Accra initiative along with Niger. In total, the initiative represents a very healthy and promising group of countries. One of the strategic challenges to be hammered out is just what my noble friend referred to: at the end of the day, what is it that the African states are looking for, and what can we do to support that endeavour?

I am not being evasive; it is just that I think a great deal more discussion has to ensue before clarity begins to emerge about some of these strategic objectives. My noble friend will be aware that we already do a lot in west Africa. We provide support in Nigeria and in the Chad basin, we are supporting the armed forces of Cameroon and we are working closely with the Ghanaian armed forces to develop ongoing counterterrorism training packages. At the end of the day, the threat of terrorism in the Sahel has not disappeared; it is there. Sadly, the presence of Wagner is likely to exacerbate the situation rather than facilitate solutions; that is another important component of everything that has to be discussed.

Royal Navy: Conduct towards Women

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd November 2022 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

The noble Baroness makes a very important point. I think it is important to remember that nearly 90% of the respondents to the committee would recommend the Armed Forces to other women. I found that reassuring, but that is no reason for complacency on the part of the MoD. I can say to the noble Baroness that over the past year, since we responded to the Select Committee report, enormous changes have been introduced: we have zero-tolerance policies on sexual offending—people will be discharged if they are convicted; we have a zero-tolerance policy on behaviour below the criminal threshold—if they are found guilty of unacceptable sexual behaviour, there is a presumption of discharge; we have also dealt with the issue of instructors and trainees—any sexual abuse in that relationship leads to mandatory discharge; we have also vastly improved the service complaints system.

While it is discomforting for the MoD to see these negative reports appearing, it does mean—and I have first-hand information about this—that women with increased confidence in the complaints system are now reporting behaviour. I welcome that. It may not be pleasant for the MoD to hear about these things, but I would much rather that women had the confidence to bring these incidents out into the open, so we can address them.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, these are obviously deeply serious matters, whether all the allegations and reports in the media are correct or not. Can the Minister reassure the House that the work of the investigating team mentioned in the Statement—and also what she calls the large-scale changes in policy in the defence area in the last year—are really going to lead to meaningful, lasting and decisive change?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I very much hope that they will. I have described to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, where the teeth are in a lot of the changes that have now been made. There are real repercussions for miscreants now if they transgress and fail to observe the high standards of behaviour that we expect. But perhaps helpfully—to reassure my noble friend—we are in fact now publishing the annual reports on sexual complaints within the Armed Forces. We published in March of this year the single service sexual harassment surveys. We have also instigated a D&I programme to monitor and measure the efficacy of our initiatives, to make sure that they are delivering. In April of this year, we mandated climate assessments across Defence, and that is to try and ensure—as my noble friend rightly identifies—that the changes we are making are delivering the improvements we hope.