European Union Referendum Bill

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Wednesday 4th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Flight]

My Lords, I campaigned in the 1975 referendum to stay in the Common Market. To criticise the precedent, I well remember that we thought we had been rather clever because we had the establishment onside and we had 2:1 of the brochures sent to people. The whole objective was to marginalise the campaign of those who were not in favour of staying in. It was, in essence, a scheme to rig the whole vote.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

I very much agree with my noble friend Lord Flight. Just because Harold Wilson rigged the 1975 referendum so that my noble friend Lord Forsyth and I—and indeed my noble friend Lord Flight—were conned into supporting staying in the EU, is that a reason for rigging this one? That is the question we have to ask.

The House will have noticed Amendment 40 in my name. Even my closest friends advise me that this amendment is rubbish. All I say to my noble friend the Minister is that I will not press my amendment. She will not have to spend any time telling the House that my amendment is rubbish because I agree with that anyway.

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[Lord Wallace of Saltaire]

My Lords, I am well aware that the political definition of a level playing field is a field in which, when the ball is placed in the centre, it rolls naturally towards your opponent’s goal. That is one of the problems with trying to define a level playing field.

I am fascinated to hear so many Conservative Peers speaking in favour of an expenditure cap to ensure that one side in a campaign does not spend more than another. I look forward to the speeches that will come from those Benches the next time we discuss political party funding. Perhaps they will support a similar principle then. The Conservative Party spent a great deal more than any other party in the recent election. I do not recall any complaints from Conservatives on that—whatever position they take on the European Union—either then or since.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Is the noble Lord saying that the general election principle is unfair because one party can raise more money than another, and that this unfairness should continue in the referendum?

[Lord Wallace of Saltaire]

I am simply remarking that principles should apply across the field. I am strongly in favour of greater control over political parties’ spending, which the Conservative Party has resisted extremely strongly. I just remarked that we need to be a little more consistent than we were being.

I will make one other point relating to this group of amendments and to the next.

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[Lord Collins of Highbury]

I am glad to hear that but at the moment it does not look as though there is a single campaign. If the Conservative Party and UKIP unite as one, so be it. The public will no doubt take account of that. But the business currently before this House is an amendment that says to UKIP, “If you register as a political party, you will limited to £10,000”. I am not sure that would cover Nigel Farage’s flights around the country, so I think he will be concerned about that.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

On the question of the designated organisation for leaving, does the noble Lord not accept that there are members of the Labour Party who are members of this? It is not a Conservative organisation; it is completely cross-party.

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[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

My Lords, I shall speak to Amendments 38, 39, 52 and 54 in my name and that of others. Amendment 38 is designed to strengthen the controls on public money and resources during the purdah period. As my noble friend will know, Section 125 of the 2000 Act only prevents the Government publishing certain materials. It does not apply to general government activity during the final four weeks of the campaign, which remains regulated by constitutional convention, not by statute.

The amendment would prevent the Government campaigning and trying to promote a leave or remain vote in the purdah period, and restrict taxpayer-funded special advisers—who, we must remember, are civil servants and paid civil servants—from assisting in referendum campaigns during the purdah period.

Amendment 39 would prevent EU institutions incurring referendum expenses or doing anything to procure a remain vote during the referendum period. Both the Government and the Electoral Commission accepted that principle when similar amendments were tabled in another place. However, they claimed that the law was sufficient to prevent EU campaigning. That is mistaken. The law referred to is the European Communities Act 1972, which provides EU institutions with full authority to engage in activities authorised by EU law. The 1972 Act must be specifically disapplied for the EU institutions to be made subject to the same campaign controls as other foreign Governments.

Amendment 52 is a short amendment to do with the Electoral Commission. At the moment, the Bill advises that Ministers should “consult” the Electoral Commission. The amendment adds “and obtain the consent”, which is an important adjustment, because we must be bound by the Electoral Commission.

Amendment 54 would leave out subsection (8), which means that Section 4(1)(c) could enable the Government to abolish purdah together. I am sure that is not their intention in the Bill, and therefore I commend the amendments.

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[Lord Pearson of Rannoch]

The noble Lord referred to the notices that our masters in Brussels have required to be erected all over the countryside. I have an idea for the farmers in question. Alongside the notice that gives the great news that our masters in Brussels have given us so much money, they could put up a notice saying, “PS. Of course, for every pound they give us, we will have given them £2.66”—which I think is the present amount. Perhaps that would put those notices into perspective, because there is no such thing as European aid to this country, as I am sure all noble Lords will agree.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Does the noble Lord not agree, though, that if somebody did something as impudent as that, measures would be taken to take their grant away?

[Lord Pearson of Rannoch]

I do not think they would be in a position to do that. If farmers were forced to do that, it would be a very good thing for those of us who wish to leave the European Union.

On Amendment 61D, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, he worries about the provision not having enough teeth to ensure that the European Commission behaves itself—which, of course, I forecast it will not. One could add on Report a clause which says that any money the European Union does spend in this regard can be deducted from the £12.5 billion net that we are sending to Brussels at the moment. Perhaps we can get the money back that way.

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[Lord Collins of Highbury]

I fear I might sound like Donald Rumsfeld if I did—talking about the unknown unknowns and the known unknowns—and I will resist the temptation. I will leave it in the capable hands of the Minister to give those examples.

However, this group of amendments gives rise to some issues, including how we define the actions of Ministers and special advisers, and the question of acting in a personal capacity. I fear that all these things are incredibly difficult to prescribe, not least: when is a Minister not a Minister; when is a spad not a spad? What about when they are working at home at weekends? The situation is clear with matters such as having no government transport, or no paid facilities when campaigning.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

The noble Lord asks, when is a spad not a spad? A special adviser is paid as a civil servant, so surely he should never get involved in matters such as a referendum.

European Union Referendum Bill

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Monday 2nd November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I am afraid I do not work in the British Government and do not have the statistics to hand. However, it is the case that a large member state such as the United Kingdom, with a voting weight proportionate to its population, has a considerable say in EU legislation. An EEA but non-EU member state, such as Norway, has none whatever.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

Can the noble Lord explain the free trade treaty between the EU and South Korea? Does it bind South Korea to following all EU legislation?

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I had assumed that the principal interest of the noble Lord, Lord Hamilton, was making sure that we managed, as some sort of country member or associate, to remain within the single market. The Koreans have no such rights. They have a very good free trade agreement, which is greatly in the UK’s interest, and has produced a considerable increase in UK exports to South Korea.

There is no doubt that the UK could secure a free trade agreement with the EU. That is not an issue. But if we want access to the single market, we need more than a free trade agreement. That is why the Norwegians are in what is known as EFTA and the EEA and why they are complaining about their relations with the EU.

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, told us that nobody in Norway wants to join the EU. Actually, the entire Norwegian establishment would like to join the EU but has not, as yet, managed to persuade the Norwegian public of that.

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[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Assuming the United Kingdom decides to leave, Europe will surely be somewhat concentrating its mind in these negotiations on the fact that it sells one and a half times as much to us as we do to it. The idea of it having some kind of stand-off with the United Kingdom and it saying, “We’re not going to trade with you at all” is almost unthinkable bearing in mind the astronomical levels of unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, in the EU at the moment.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

The impetuosity of youth is spreading all around the Chamber. The point will be addressed in a second.

If we had no structured relationship with the EU and operated purely as WTO members, the damage to our exports and inward investment would come more quickly, since UK exports to the EU would become subject to EU tariffs straightaway—10% on cars, 15% on food products and so on. We would also lose the benefit of the EU’s 200 or so trade agreements with third countries and regional groupings and we would need to negotiate our own.

Maybe there is too much Nordic gloom and doom in my analysis. Maybe the noble Lords, Lord Forsyth and Lord Stoddart, are correct. Certainly, that great Scottish economist, Peter McKay, writing in today’s Daily Mail, finds my analysis defeatist, but it is possible that the Norwegians know what they are talking about. Maybe we could, to address directly the point of the noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, secure a new sui generis deal more generous than any that the EU currently has with anybody. Maybe we could forget all these models and establish the new Union Jack model. It is true, as the noble Lord, Lord Hamilton, says, that we would have some cards in our hand. Some 6% of exports from the rest of the EU come to us and we could threaten to cut them off, so pleasing Mr McKay in the Daily Mail, if not the British consumer. However, we need to face facts—four facts. First, 6% of their exports come to us—3% if one excludes the Netherlands, Germany and Ireland—but nearly 50% of ours go to them. In a protectionist showdown, we would be shooting uphill. They would be facing a blip; we would be fighting for our lives.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

The noble Lord talks about a blip. We are talking about 4.5 million Europeans losing their jobs, on top of the astronomically high levels of unemployment they have now. If that is a blip, I am very glad that the noble Lord does not advise me on economics.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I do not recognise the figure of 4.5 million. Maybe the noble Lord is assuming that exports that did not come to Britain, because we erected a protectionist barrier against them, would not go somewhere else in the world. It is a static analysis.

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[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, I very much support the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. It is important that we think about the implications for the UK of its relations with the EU, should there be a vote to leave it. Before dinner, we heard of concerns about fear and claims that the pro-Europeans wanted to talk about withdrawal and its dangers only because we wanted to whip up fear. There is a danger that comes from Eurosceptics such as Dan Hannan, who says, “You pro-Europeans invent things. We don’t want to be Norway”. That is certainly something that was suggested in your Lordships’ House at Second Reading. The noble Lord, Lord Stoddart of Swindon, has already suggested today that the UK does not want to have a Norwegian model or a Swiss model; it would like its own model. In order for the citizens of the UK, and anyone else who may be enfranchised in the forthcoming referendum, to understand the implications of what they are doing in the vote, it is important that they have an understanding, and that the Government make clear, what the implications of leaving would be for our relationship with the EU.

The noble Lord, Lord Hamilton, intervened earlier on my noble friend Lord Wallace of Saltaire to ask whether arrangements could not just carry on as they are if the UK were to leave the EU. That strikes me as a very strange sort of club. If you say to your golf club, “I’m not going to pay my dues any more; I no longer want to be a member of this club”, it is not going to say, “That’s fine, you can come and play golf again on Sunday”.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

We were actually talking about the arrest warrant and the legal arrangements that we have. There seems to be no reason why those should not be negotiated to continue as they were before.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham]

I thank the noble Lord for his comment. It would indeed be perfectly possible to negotiate a whole range of things associated with access to the internal market, the European arrest warrant and many other aspects of the relationship that the UK currently has with our European partners. However, we would need to consider, and the Government would need to be able to explain, in what areas they would envisage having relationships with the EU.

The idea that things could just carry on as before, as was suggested in a previous group of amendments, is rather complacent. Legislation that the UK has on its statute books would certainly persist, and on day one it might look very similar, but with regard to access to markets there is no reason whatever to assume that the EU 27—particularly acting by unanimity on Article 50, which the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, has just referred to—would simply say, “The United Kingdom is so important to us that we will give it free access to our markets”. There would have to be negotiations, and there is no reason to assume that our current colleagues in the EU would open up the markets without extracting some sort of quid pro quo with some sort of agreement. I know it is not palatable to everyone to hear yet again about the European Economic Area, but looking at those relationships reveals that the member states of the EEA have effectively signed up to a huge amount of the EU’s acquis but without a seat at the table. They have to accept what the EU agrees.

The United Kingdom may be out-voted while we are a member of the European Union but if we play our cards right as a member we can negotiate, we can work with partners and we can amend legislation. On the outside we would be policy-takers and we would be doing what the European Union asked us to do. If we felt it was in our interests we might sign up to it but the costs are likely to be significant. If we engaged in a relationship that looked like a Norwegian model, we would end up paying into the Union budget, taking policy and having even less influence than now.

Noble Lords may say that I say that only because I want Britain to remain in. I am simply suggesting that it is important for citizens of the United Kingdom to understand the implications and that the Government should make clear what the implications of leaving would be and how they envisage the relationship of the United Kingdom with the rest of the European Union.

On Amendment 32A, could the Minister bring back to the Committee some thoughts on how the Government envisage the relationship with the Republic of Ireland if there were a vote to leave the European Union? That relationship is sui generis. The relationship between the Republic and Northern Ireland and the fact that there is currently no land border would be fundamentally changed. Withdrawal has implications for the United Kingdom and this one particular close neighbour in the European Union. I ask the Government to look again at that relationship.

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[Lord Liddle]

I take the point. The noble Lord has thrown me off my path. I was saying that the nature of our economy has changed and that sometimes when I listen to these debates I do not get an appreciation of that. The fact is that Britain has benefited more from European Union membership than virtually any other member, and has done so through attracting inward investment to the United Kingdom from all parts of the world. This has been a tremendous boost; it has been the only successful industrial policy we have had since the era of Margaret Thatcher; she was the one who first started it, and it has worked. That has meant that many British businesses are part of European and global supply chains, and we as a country benefit from hosting many foreign companies here. I often think, when I listen to the arguments, that people just do not appreciate that. Yet, that is clearly the major economic issue in the debate on membership. If that inward investment, that ability to organise your supply chains across Europe, were to be interrupted as a result of withdrawal and badly damaged, that could seriously deter future inward investment in the UK.

Most of us in this Chamber are pretty passionate in our views about the European Union, for and against. However, we also have to remember that most of the great British public are not very passionate about it; in fact, the great majority do not regard it as the most important issue in the world at all. Most opinion polling suggests that only about 10% of the voters are worked up about our membership of the European Union. That does not mean that they are pro—I am not trying to argue that. They are genuinely sceptic about the whole issue in a way in which a lot of the people who are anti-European Union in this Chamber, who claim to be sceptics, are not—they are passionate ideologues. However, most of the voters are sceptics, who want to weigh the evidence and be convinced one way or another by the argument.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

I totally accept the noble Lord’s thesis that this is not a high priority for the British public at the moment. On the other hand, however, he will recollect the time when the Tory party was tearing itself apart over the issue of Europe, and it was certainly a very much higher priority at that time. Does he not feel that as we approach the referendum and the debate rages it will move up in people’s priorities, and that they will take more interest in it?

[Lord Liddle]

The noble Lord is right about that, but it is the result of dissent in an elite and a particular part of the British political elite. People will get worked up about this because of a vigorous argument on one side of the political spectrum; it is not as a result of massive popular demand from below. However, that is not my point, which is that a lot of people are genuinely sceptic and probably dislike the Brussels bureaucracy a great deal but worry about our future outside the EU. That is where I think that the need for objectivity is very important. Clearly, I am not the right person to make an objective case about the European Union but I still believe that we have a public service in Britain which is independent and can be objective and which can help to frame a rational debate about our membership. That is why I think that the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, is so important.

I hope that the Minister, for whom I have the greatest respect, and the Government will look favourably on the argument regarding the need for objectivity in this debate and on the argument that the public service can help to bring that to the debate. That is what the public are looking for. I would hate to think that our politics had got to the state of that of the United States, where everything is so polarised that it is impossible to have any kind of meeting of minds or objectivity and rationality in discussions. I think that the senior members of the Government are coming round to a certain view about Britain’s future which I favour, so I hope that they will be prepared to support this call for independent, objective analysis, which is so important for the quality of our politics.

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[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

These are the kind of questions to which we need answers from the Government. That is precisely what we are asking: what would it look like and what would we need to do? What would the administrative consequences be? Does the Foreign Office have the capacity to deal with this?

Let us look at the Swiss model, where each negotiation is done bilaterally and on a piece-by-piece basis. You would need an army to start renegotiating that model if we were interested in pursuing that kind of thing. Let us not forget that the Swiss model does not allow access to financial services, which is something that should concern the City of London. The fact is that the City would be locked out. I am absolutely sure of that because if the Swiss financial services sector is locked out, I am quite sure that the Germans would be eyeing up the financial services sector very happily in terms of the opportunities for them. The City of London commissioned a report by the University of Kent looking specifically at the Swiss relationship and financial services. It found that Swiss financial services do not have unfettered access to the EU and that Switzerland—listen to this—currently uses London as a staging post to get access to the EU. We need to take note of that.

We could rely on WTO rules, of course, but again let us be clear that services, particularly financial services, would not be covered. Let us face it, the WTO is not an organisation that exactly moves fast. I think the last massive deal was done in 1994. When we are pressing the button and knowing that we need to get a negotiation done within two years, that is not something we could rely on. We also have to understand that if we wanted access to EU markets, WTO rules mean that British car manufacturers would face a 9.8% tariff on the export of cars, 5% on car components, 15% on food and 11% on clothing. Those are the rules of the WTO. If you want a loose relationship, that is what you would be looking at.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for giving way. Has she considered the number of luxury cars that Germany sells to the United Kingdom?

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

Absolutely, that is fine, and of course we would negotiate a deal with the Germans. But we come back to the point that we would not be holding all the cards. Exports to the UK account for 2.5% of their GDP, while it is 14% of our GDP. The other thing we should bear in mind is that the people who trade with us are, on the whole, Germany and the Netherlands. A lot of other countries do not do massive trade with us, quite frankly, and they would not have much interest in negotiating a great deal for the UK. Moreover, each of them would have a say in what that deal says.

Some have suggested that we have special links with the Commonwealth and with emerging markets around the world, so that is where we should be focusing our efforts. Really? How come Germany’s trade with China is three times greater than ours? The Germans also export more to India than we do. How come France finds it easier to land defence contracts with India than we do? That is the special relationship that we have with our Commonwealth friends. We cannot rely on historic relationships when 50% of our market in goods is with the EU.

Whatever deal is agreed, we know that each of the other 27 member states will be given a say in addition to the three members of the EEA, while Switzerland might have something to say if the UK managed to negotiate better terms than it. Some member states would be more generous than others and some would feel betrayed by a UK exit. The European Parliament would also have to ratify the agreement. So we have to be absolutely clear: the UK would not be holding very strong cards and it would not be an easy negotiation. Moreover, let us face it, negotiation is not exactly our Prime Minister’s strongest suit. The Prime Minister found it difficult to negotiate changes to the treaty from the inside but that will be nothing compared to trying to negotiate a new trade relationship with the EU from the outside.

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[Lord Wallace of Saltaire]

My Lords, I, too, agree with this amendment. I anticipate that when the negotiations are complete, the Prime Minister will publish a paper and I think it highly likely that the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, will disagree fundamentally with what the Prime Minister says.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

My Lords, I went to the Public Bill Office and said that I wanted to put down an amendment very similar to this. It would have called for a White Paper, which this amendment does not. When it was pointed out to me that my noble friend Lord Forsyth’s amendment was already tabled, I added my name to it. This smacks very much of Amendment 1, which I put my name to and which was supported very early on by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. The Liberal Democrats supported it, too, and I suspect that the Front Bench of the Labour Party is going to support it. This amendment ties in with everything that the Government have said already. The only worry I have is that my noble friend the Minister may say that the Government have given an undertaking to this and that it does not need to be in the Bill. I have to say that we will all be very reassured if it is.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

Before my noble friend sits down, one of the key points is of course the provision:

“Not less than four months before the date of the referendum”.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Yes, indeed, that is a very significant part of it.

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

My Lords, we are all keen to know the outcome of the Prime Minister’s negotiations. Now we have an idea of what he is hoping to achieve and he has promised to write down the UK’s negotiating position in a letter to the President of the Council. I think we are expecting that to happen next week. I am sure that other EU leaders will be happy to see that as well, given the reports we have read of their frustration at the vagueness of the UK’s negotiating position.

We know the broad themes—sovereignty, economic governance and what the meaning is of “ever-closer union”—but I would take issue with one point brought up in relation to the report written by the European Committee of this House. In relation to restrictions on free movement of labour, we would warn the Government not to talk up the problem of benefit tourism, as they did in their response to the European Committee on its report assessing the reform process. They said in their response that they want to reform,

“welfare to reduce the incentives which have led to mass immigration from Europe”.

I am afraid that the facts simply do not match up to that proposition. Last year, a European Commission report found there was no evidence of systematic or widespread benefit tourism by EU nationals migrating within the EU, including to the UK. In fact, the UK is the only EU member state where there were fewer beneficiaries among EU migrants than among nationals.

We are expecting the first substantive discussions on reform at the December summit. Let us hope that they are given a bit more of an airing than in June, when I think the Prime Minister was lucky to have had 10 minutes. Of course, it would make sense if the outcomes of the negotiations were made clear to the public. We would endorse the idea of the production of a report to this effect.

Nepal

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Tuesday 27th October 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

I entirely agree and endorse what the noble Baroness has said. Of course, our remaining concern must be to ensure that the constitution is put into effect. Because of the recent elections, that is still a matter to be resolved.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

Will the Government be the first in discouraging the Nepalese Government from imposing massive tariffs on aid flows into their country?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it is true that the Nepali Government rely very heavily on the charges on goods going into their country. My noble friend is right to point out that Nepal relies heavily on aid from others, including from the UK, and I am sure it respects the importance of that. For example, on 25 June at the international donors’ conference in Kathmandu, the DfID director for Asia, Beverley Warmington, announced a commitment of £70 million in total from the UK. It is important that the Nepali Government work closely with us in delivering that.

Burundi

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Thursday 11th June 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

I have been waiting to say that for quite a long time. We saw recently the refreshing effect that elections can have.

In the case of Burundi, it is clear that the first term of President Nkurunziza was by appointment, not by election. It is therefore time for him to step aside, and to have open and fair elections.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

Does my noble friend accept that many sub-Saharan African leaders find it so profitable to be in power that the sums that will have to be paid to get them to go will have to be very substantial?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, that is certainly an interesting point of view.

Greece: New Government

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd February 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, we would never wash our hands of discussions with our colleagues within the European Union. I think that I have made it clear that both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer have already had discussions. Indeed, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister telephoned Mr Tsipras on the very day that the Greek Prime Minister took his position. Discussions are ongoing and there will, of course, be meetings next week at the European summit. As regards the IMF, we are indeed part of the system that backs it up. The IMF’s status as preferred creditor means that it is repaid first. What is important is that we do not get to the point of a Greek default. The new Greek Government are working on that and it is important for them to be able to discuss what kind of package they can put together, as they work around their colleagues in the eurozone this week.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

My Lords—

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords—

EU: Free Trade Agreements

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Monday 13th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livingston of Parkhead]

The challenge of child labour in certain countries can happen irrespective of free trade, but I think that free trade will actually help through the exposure and openness of the economies, which is a major help to improving the conditions of workers in individual countries. That is something we will continue to push for. As I said earlier, we also put human rights clauses in the various agreements and the UN has certain statements on human rights, which we also look to comply with. It is an important subject, but it is not peculiar to free trade agreements.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

My Lords, is it not inevitable that, as long as European energy prices are double—or, in the case of Germany, triple—that of the United States, there is inevitably going to be a transfer of manufacturing to the United States?

[Lord Livingston of Parkhead]

As I said earlier, energy prices are a significant issue for EU-US relations, but they are not the only issue and there are many industries that are not wholly reliant on energy prices. In fact, energy prices are just one part of the total package. We would also look to see the exploitation, for instance, of alternative energy sources in the UK, which will hopefully act to balance some of that. With that in mind, I was delighted to see the comments from the Prime Minister about looking for alternative energy sources. The UK, which is already an energy producer through conventional means, is also looking at alternative sources of energy, and that is going to be very important for the future of the UK.

European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Friday 10th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Triesman (Lab)]

My Lords, it has been a long and remarkable Friday, not least perhaps for the extraordinary role that a Private Member’s Bill has taken up. This is an issue that has generated 68 speeches, which were bound to demonstrate widely divergent views. However, even given the nuances of those views, I think I can tell the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, that it is still roughly 2:1 in favour of those who do not support an unamended Bill. I will settle for 2:1 every average weekend.

I doubt that my role today is to seduce Lord Cormack, or indeed any others, but I will certainly have a go at it. The Bill introduced by the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, will undoubtedly, over the years, make people reflect on his courage. It is a poor Bill and it is a Trojan Bill. I suspect it has the unintended benefit of making us address some fundamental questions. I suspect it will also have the intended or unintended disbenefit of edging us still further towards exit from Europe, whether that is a declared intention or not.

Some of our questions go to the heart of why so many accession nations, starting with poor rule of law, a lack of democracy, overweening state bureaucracy and no viable markets, have sought to bring all these deficiencies to an end in order to join the EU. I share with my noble friend Lord Giddens the view that they have also understood the unstoppable progress to peace in Europe, historically one of the most bloodstained continents in the world. In every case, I believe those countries have honed in on the paramount issue: what is right for their nation? So should we this afternoon.

What is right for the people of the United Kingdom? I have a preference; of course I do. I want the United Kingdom to remain part of a non-nationalistic and peaceful Europe. However, the Bill would impose on that decision an arbitrary date for a referendum, which is why it is imperative to weigh the evidence. It gives a fixed year for a referendum, come what may. Is that the optimum position for the people of the United Kingdom?

The case for the United Kingdom’s continued membership is better than strong. Putting it at risk seems unwise. Starting a process that is likely to lead to exit by fixing the date in this way is still worse. Indeed, continuing membership of the EU was so compelling that, at the previous general election, nobody thought to raise it in the way that it has been described in either of the major party manifestos. There was no mention at all of an “in or out” referendum. Nor did the coalition mention it in its agreement. I think we have heard a decent explanation of the Lib Dems’ position at that time in the course of today’s debate.

Our national interest is about our ability to earn our living in a complex world. It is about families having the opportunity for prosperity rather than tumbling standards of living. It is about the best education that we can afford and the healthiest population that we can create. It is about dignity and decent standards in old age. It is about all those things because only a sound trading economy can generate the wealth that can deliver them. It is about the values of a decent society. It is about fairness and is opposed to the unfairness that always accelerates when we see any corrosion or downgrading of an economy. The interests of the United Kingdom seem straightforward enough to me.

Indeed, there has been a long-standing consensus on the issue. That was clearly expressed by Sir John Major recently—a leader who had at least won a general election and had dealt with some volcanic anti-Europeans in his party—who said: “I’m not in favour of Mr Wharton’s Bill”. He said that his party should focus on taxes, jobs, education, health and living standards. He recognised that in a world of 7 billion, the EU was the closest and largest of the trading groups drawing together that offered us any kind of option—an option that simply would not be available, in his words, “for our island”.

In that Sir John Major echoes the CBI, which, like all of us, most certainly sees the case for reform in Europe and the development of more appropriate institutions but which is clear that leaving the EU would be catastrophic for our economy and for jobs and that the EU provides global leverage that we, on our own, cannot exercise. He echoes business leaders such as Sir Martin Sorrell, Sir Richard Branson and very many others, leaders to whom we look for the energy to fuel economic recovery. I know that not all business leaders take exactly that view, but it is fair to say that an overwhelming proportion of them do. He echoes what has been said by businesses such as Nissan, which has been quoted several times today, which described its remarkable Sunderland plant as,

“a very competitive plant, it’s a very productive plant and it’s a European plant”—

not just simply a plant in the United Kingdom.

About a week ago, commenting on whether we are now in a period of economic recovery—we will see whether that is true over time—the Chancellor cautioned the whole country, saying that the job was not yet half done. I will take him at his word, not argue about whether we are making progress. This, then, is a period when uncertainties and instabilities are best avoided. Two days ago, a sober analysis of our major banks suggested that there is a further £28 billion hole in their far-from-repaired balance sheets. The problems of lending and the cost of lending are still serious issues. The costs of maintaining and building small and medium enterprises still rise. Europe, where we already have less influence in its financial institutions, has a long way to go to achieve overall stability. That is another instability that impacts on us. Who knows where all this will be at some arbitrary date in 2017?

It may be that, with the unresolved issues, the party speech that was given by David Cameron when he became leader of his party will now come to be seen as very significant. He told his party that they had been locked in a dispute. People have been quoting the part about banging on about Europe, but the beginning of the quote is more interesting. He said that they had for too long been locked in a dispute about being in the EU. While normal people,

“worried about childcare, getting the kids to school, balancing work and family life, we were banging on about Europe”.

I can tell the House that, as a rather elderly dad of a young child here late on a Friday afternoon, I think I know what he means. In November 2011, the Foreign Secretary said that,

“a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU … at this time of profound economic uncertainty, is not the answer”.

He then developed the case very cogently. Therefore, although there is internal dissension, which has reached mega-decibel level in the Conservative Party, largely giving rise to problems of party management, that has now come to trump national interest.

Let us in this House, therefore, consider this. There will probably be some economic turbulence for some time to come—possibly, even probably, including major anxieties about unemployment, household incomes and acute pressure on pensions. The British people may be asked whether to leave the EU in circumstances that might lose another 3.5 million jobs, which would be at stake, and they might reflect on whether an invigorated trade with North America and the Asians would make us more prosperous in what has been described as potentially the Asian century. All of that will be at play during the course of 1917—or, rather, 2017. It was probably at stake in 1917 as well—we have not come very far, have we? That will be very likely to turn into a referendum on the Government of the day or on any of the dissatisfactions that emerge during tough financial times.

The comments made by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, on all the other events of 2017 are all absolutely fundamental to understanding whether progress can be made. Of course, there is always uncertainty. I think that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said at the beginning, “In a world of uncertainty, why not 2017? There is always uncertainty”. I hope that I do not misquote him.

The point is surely to choose the time that is least likely to rack up the degree of uncertainty, plainly set out by business for us and by many others, or a time when the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary of the day can feel most confident that the interests of the nation will be properly served and resolved. It does not drain uncertainty to have the date 2017; it makes uncertainty a certainty. As far as possible, it is our obligation to try to measure certainty and mitigate uncertainty.

I said earlier that the case for reform in Europe is powerful. There are issues that should and must be addressed, such as democratic enlargement, managing enlargement itself, the push for more liberalised services sectors, the budget, mechanisms for changing Community law and so on. It is not difficult to identify a reform agenda, but I would start by trying to reform eurospeak, which is a form of language that I do not personally understand—and I am not sure that I have ever met anyone from Tottenham who did.

The fact is that any kind of negotiation on these issues will not be helped by an arbitrary timetable with a difficult background, which, as I have said, we are very likely to face. It is always easier for the negotiator who has no time constraints than the one who has to perform to time constraints, and those of us who have earned our living over the years as negotiators know that only too well. The silence from the Government on this is alarming. I do not prejudge Mr Cameron’s future work in negotiations, although I am not optimistic, as noble Lords can tell. I always want success for any negotiator who goes to negotiate for our country. I observe only that Mr Cameron has taken on this task in the least propitious circumstances that could be created. It is a millstone that he bears from Tory EU history. Labour itself had a difficult history—it was 40 years ago, and I remember it well. My own trade union told me to vote no, but I voted yes. It is clear that our European partners are becoming tetchier with us all the time.

There are a number of faults in the text that we have to consider, but I shall not go through them, as they have already been mentioned. But I suspect that all colleagues on all Benches believe that saying that any attempt to make this Bill better will “Kill the Bill” is gratuitous hyperbole. Proper scrutiny and amendment are the central purpose of this House, and the purpose will be served without any impropriety. There is no possibility of any amendment making that worse in terms of our process and practice. A Private Member’s Bill on a take-it-or-leave-it basis could lead only to one conclusion, which has been expressed in the House today—a very dark conclusion, which would be a disaster for this House. The Government have at least 14 months to get it right, and there is no point in blaming anyone else for the difficulties of timing. They can use the time properly if they wish to, and can take account of the decisions that may be taken in this House. The odds are that we would not produce a wrecking policy for the future of our people.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

Before the noble Lord sits down, could he clarify for the benefit of the House whether Labour is in favour of an “in or out” referendum, or is it keeping its options open?

[Lord Triesman]

My Lords, I thought that I had collapsed then, let alone sat down. If there is to be such a referendum, or consideration of one, it will be at a time that does not wreck our economy.

Kenya: Kenyan Emergency

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Tuesday 18th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

I think the noble Lord will accept that by acknowledging the wrongs and expressing deep regret for what happened during that period, the Government have gone much further than previous Governments. I am not aware of the answer to the noble Lord’s specific question on archives but if there is an answer I will certainly write to him.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Does my noble friend accept that during the emergency tens of thousands of Africans were killed by the Mau Mau, many of them for not joining the Mau Mau? Are the Kenya Government doing anything to pay compensation to the victims who were tortured by the Mau Mau?

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, I do not intend to answer this question with a view to reopening the debate about the rights and wrongs of that period. Nor do I feel that it is appropriate for me to comment on how the Kenyan Government should respond to this.

EU: Prime Minister’s Speech

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Thursday 31st January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

My Lords, I do not terribly want to get involved in a debate about what will happen when the referendum is held. Rather, I will make two points. The first is that within the next 12 months, I suspect that the Labour Party will commit itself to an “in or out” referendum, whether the noble Lord, Lord Davies, likes it or not. It is completely unsustainable for any party to stand at the next election saying that it is not going to hold a referendum when a major party like the Conservatives is doing so. I suspect that the Liberal Democrats will follow suit as well.

Not for the first time, I find that I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. He knows, as most noble Lords in this Chamber know, that the construct of the EU has been a series of treaties which need unanimous support, and that if you want to revise those treaties, it has to be done with unanimity. I therefore suggest that the chances of Britain renegotiating a position that entails treaty change is virtually non-existent, and by the same token, it will not be possible for Germany, Holland, Sweden and Finland to renegotiate to make the EU more competitive. If something needs treaty change, it will not happen; that is the reality of the position that we are in.

I have absolutely no idea who will win the election of 2015, but we will have either a Labour or a Conservative Prime Minister. Then what will happen? If Ed Miliband is Prime Minister, he will go off to Europe and come back with a minimal number of concessions. He will not be able to pull off the same trick as Harold Wilson: namely, minimal renegotiation and a vote for us to stay in the EU. He would have to win major concessions—which I do not think he will get—and, of course, at that stage he will be faced by a Conservative Opposition, led, I suspect, by a different leader, who will campaign vigorously against any move to keep us in the EU. Alternatively, if David Cameron wins, he will have to go off to Europe and come back with very serious concessions. I suspect that the best that he will be able to achieve will be some hybrid solution for the United Kingdom that will leave us more out of the EU than in. Either way, I do not see that we will do anything other than come out.

That brings us to my noble friend’s Liberal Democrats, who already have the somewhat suspect reputation of being the people whom Conservative and Labour candidates least want to face in an election. They have now added to that the reputation of being unreliable and untrustworthy when it comes to the coalition agreement that was set up at the beginning of this Parliament. So I do not think that an awful lot of people will want to go into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats ever again. If the opinion polls are right, they will probably get only 10 seats at the next election, so the question may not even come up.

Egypt: Elections

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Thursday 24th January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Baroness makes an important point. I can assure her that the Government have been raising the issue of women’s rights both in relation to the election and more widely, such as the way in which the rights of women have been drafted into the current constitution. I also assure her that in my discussions next month, women’s rights will certainly be raised. This Minister certainly does not need prompting to raise them.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Is my noble friend confident that there will be elections in Egypt this year or will it be yet another question of one man, one vote, once?