(2 days, 9 hours ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, this is my first occasion to speak in this debate on the eighth day of Committee. As I said at Second Reading, I have concentrated and will continue to concentrate on the issues relating to home-schooling parents and their pupils. It was therefore heartening to hear from the noble Lord, Lord Lucas, his strong endorsement of home education. It was also helpful of my noble friend the Minister to intervene when she did. It gives me the opportunity at the beginning of my short speech to say that there should always be a register.
The noble Baroness, Lady Barran, may remember that when she was in the Department for Education—I do not know if she is listening to me at the moment—I brought home-schooling mothers to her. The issue that I have on behalf of the home-schooling mothers is not whether there should be a register or not. I wholly endorse the ample reasons my noble friend the Minister gave in her speech just now. Yes, there should be a register, but the problem is that—these are the words I used at Second Reading—the provisions relating to home-schooling in the Bill are
“too long and too complicated”.—[Official Report, 1/5/25; cols. 1414.]
We have certain difficulties in the conduct of this debate. First, there are several amendments that are not on the issue of home-schooling. The second difficulty, which the noble Lord, Lord Frost, identified, is that we are not taking things in the order of the Bill. We have already jumped to Clause 31. The first clause in the Bill on home-schooling is Clause 30. As an omnibus, there are altogether four clauses relating to home-schooling in the Bill: Clauses 30, 31, 32 and 33. It would be much more convenient if we had taken them in order.
The best thing that I can do at this stage, it being the first occasion I have spoken on the Bill in Committee, is to address your Lordships on home-schooling, and their parents. Altogether, home-schooling accounts for only 1% of all children eligible for state education. In England in the academic year 2024-25, there were altogether 9,092,073 children in state schools. That makes the total of home-schooling parents to be in the region of 90,000 to 91,000. This is a substantial and surprising number of pupils, but that is how the arithmetic works out.
Many of the home-schooling mothers, but by no means all, are university educated. They group together in what they call co-operatives. The number of children being educated is often around seven to eight pupils per group and sometimes, on special subjects, home-schooling mothers can gather together 20 to 30 pupils at the same time. During each term, home-schooling parents have on average three educational visits to London museums and other places of education.
Another feature of home-schooling is that it allows the teaching of subjects that are not available in the state system—for example, classics, and also schooling in music and drama is not always available in state schools. There was a good example given to the Minister, Stephen Morgan, when I met him with some home-schooling mothers. One cited the case of wanting to include classics in the education of one or more of her children, so she found an Oxford graduate who could take on that task.
The reasons for home-schooling are a better education, an education in subjects that are not available in state schools and, sometimes, the need to take a child out of a state school for one unhappiness or another. Your Lordships can all understand that home-schooling is a big commitment—the noble Lord, Lord Lucas, recognised that—and that home-schooling mothers are very busy in their prime role of the education of their children. Therefore, to involve them in extensive bureaucracy as proposed in the Bill is wrong and that is what I oppose.
(2 days, 9 hours ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I rise to speak to Amendments 203A and Amendment 215A, and to give moral support to Amendment 221. Before turning to these provisions, I wish to reflect briefly on the underlying scope and purpose of Clause 30.
Clause 30 as drafted is striking in its breadth. It hands local authorities the power to demand consent before a child may be withdrawn from a maintained school. I pick up here on a point made previously by the Minister about whether all parents could be subject to this. My assertion is that they could if a local authority decided, on the withdrawal of the child from school, to put the parent under a Section 47 order. Apparently, this is incredibly easy to do. The law requires only reasonable cause to suspect significant harm. It is a deliberately low bar, meant to protect children, and I have had correspondence—we can discuss this again in August—that indicates that it has at times been misused, just through a referral, for example, from the school itself. Let us say that a teacher does not really understand home education, is concerned that withdrawal might cause harm and alerts the local authority. Instantly, it can start an investigation. As an officer, you run that by your manager, who is busy—partly, perhaps, because there are many more families to investigate now that that the database exists. Perhaps there was a missed medical appointment, which I am sure we have all experienced, and they were late and could not see the doctor in time, perhaps because there was traffic. Suddenly, that might give rise to an S47. Although in theory, under the clause, only a certain subset of parents may be affected, potentially, in practice, depending on the ideological bias of the officers involved—and we have seen in some authorities that there clearly are some outliers—all parents may be swept into such measures.
Clause 30 as drafted hands local authorities the power to demand consent before a child may be withdrawn, yet nowhere does it properly limit the grounds on which that consent may be withheld. This gives the state a sweeping veto over parents’ decisions to withdraw their children, even when such withdrawal arises from urgent, pressing circumstances such as sustained bullying or grooming—I believe that you can be subject to an S47 if you are being groomed in a school—unmet special educational needs or serious mental health concerns. In doing so, it risks turning what should be a family’s protective step—for example, taking your child out of that circumstance of grooming by bullies in school—into a procedural trap.
This is a significant expansion of state power into private family life. It runs counter the well-established principle, under both domestic common law and Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights, that parents are presumed to act in their children’s best interests unless there is clear evidence to the contrary. By casting such a wide net without rigorous statutory safeguards, Clause 30 risks inviting inconsistency, arbitrary refusals and unnecessary confrontations that erode trust between families and local authorities. It is precisely this sort of overreach that sows the seed of future litigation and damages the co-operative spirit that effective safeguarding truly depends on.
Against that backdrop, Amendment 215 offers a much more balanced and constructive approach and, dare I say it, safeguard. It would require local authorities to offer parents a voluntary information session before they formally deregister a child to home educate. This session would do three modest but crucial things: provide an exploration of the parents’ legal rights and responsibilities, give details of what support services might be available, and lay out clearly what the process and consequences of withdrawal would entail.
This is not a barrier, a checkpoint or a covert mechanism for delay; it is simply an offer of information. It is a means to ensure that parents contemplating such a significant step—as we have heard, many more do so these days—do so with a full understanding of the legal and practical landscape, and it respects their right to choose while empowering them to make that choice wisely.
The decision to home-educate is rarely casual; many parents arrive at it after considerable distress. We have heard accounts from across England of children so overwhelmed by school that they stop speaking, suffer debilitating anxiety or face persistent exclusion. In such cases, parents often withdraw a child in a crisis, being understandably focused on immediate well-being rather than long-term procedural consequences. Those parents deserve our empathy, not our suspicion.
This amendment is rooted in sound constitutional principle. In R (Anufrijeva) v Secretary of State for the Home Department the law is clear. Procedural fairness is a cornerstone of our system requiring timely, clear information when rights are at stake. This is precisely what Amendment 215A would achieve, ensuring that parents understand their freedoms and obligations.
It is not an abstract problem. In evidence we have repeatedly heard of parents who did not fully appreciate the impact of deregistration. Some assumed that they could simply return their child to school at any time. Others did not realise the additional hurdles for exam access or the financial implications once local authority funding fell away. One parent who wrote in from the West Midlands said starkly, “We thought we’d just get on with it, but suddenly we were isolated. No support, no guidance and a local authority more interested in interrogating us than helping”. Another told us, “No one warned us about exam costs. If we’d known, we would have budgeted and planned differently”.
This amendment also helps to address the troubling postcode lottery that currently characterises local authority engagement. Some councils build relationships with home-educating families, others issue notices to satisfy and school attendance orders at extraordinary rates. In Portsmouth, for instance, in one recent year nearly three-quarters of all known home-educating families were issued a notice. That is not a safeguarding approach grounded in individual assessment; it is a blunt instrument that breeds fear and resentment.
Offering a voluntary information session helps to shift this climate. It replaces adversarial compliance checks with constructive engagement. It gives parents confidence that they understand their rights, that they are under no obligation to accept invasive home visits, and that they can approach home education in a spirit of informed partnership rather than fearful retreat. It is essential that this remains voluntary. To compel attendance would simply re-create the coercive environment that we seek to avoid. Some parents may never need further help; others may seek guidance. This gentle first step ensures that they start that journey from a place of respect and understanding.
Finally, I want us to remember the positive role that schools themselves can play. Head teachers are often the first to hear of a family’s intention to deregister. With this amendment in place, they would have somewhere helpful to direct parents to—not as a hurdle but as a supportive opportunity to become better informed.
In sum, this is precisely the kind of proportionate, relationship-based approach we should be championing, respecting parental authority, ensuring clarity of obligation, building trust and ultimately safeguarding children far more effectively than heavy-handed procedural entanglements could ever do. If in August we can perhaps implement more changes such as this, we may need fewer tribunals, although I agree they are a very important measure, and we may need fewer databases because parents and local authorities are working together in co-operation. I beg to move.
My Lords, as I said at Second Reading and repeated earlier this afternoon, it is my contention on behalf of home-schooling parents that the provisions in this Bill are
“too long and too complicated”.—[Official Report, 1/5/25; col. 1414.]
To that end, I have given notice that I will oppose the Question that Clause 30 stand part of the Bill. I also put down Amendment 233A relating to Clause 31.
Perhaps we could look at the whole. I have argued against the long and complicated provisions in this Bill relating to home-schooling parents because they are frightfully oppressive on home-schooling parents and are in many ways unworkable because of the complicated language used in this Bill.
To look at it as a whole, the home-schooling provisions in the Bill are covered in Clauses 30 to 33. They cover 29 pages, from page 50 to page 79 of the Bill, and the clauses therein contain 17 very large new sections to be inserted after Sections 434 and 436 of the Education Act 1996. So the further complication is that not only do you need to have in your hands this Bill, or Act when it is passed, but you have to go back to the 1996 Act.
My Lords, I rise to ask a question on this set of amendments on registers. I have not spoken before, but I am absolutely supportive of the Bill; it is long overdue and I very much welcome it. But in the spirit of wanting to do this as practicably as possible, we need to make sure that we are not being too onerous on parents and local authorities in this area, and that what we do makes sense. In respect of what has just been said, if I am right, parents just have to provide information under new Section 436C(1), not new Section 436C(2), which is a much longer list. In fairness, it says:
“To the extent that the local authority has the information or can reasonably obtain it”,
so I am not overly worried about that.
I do not think that the questions being asked are unreasonable, as long as the list does not grow and we are firm with local authorities about not sneaking in extra questions that are not required, but—I am not sure where this is in the Bill—how often does this have to be updated by parents? When educating your child, if for some reason you wish to do an area of learning next month and you approach somebody new to do that—maybe for one hour a week—would you have to notify in advance, would you do an annual review or whatever? We need to be really clear around that area, as a sign of good faith that we are not deliberately trying to make this onerous. There should not be some kind of checking that means you can never make a mistake. I am just using this as an example for the Minister because, if we are not careful, the rules could be misinterpreted and this could get more cumbersome than we intended. Other than that, I do not think that new Section 436C(1) is unreasonable or time consuming, as long as it is interpreted in the way that was intended.
My Lords, my noble friend was a most distinguished Secretary of State for Education, and I am very grateful to her for intervening in this debate. To answer her questions directly, she said that she was focusing only on new Section 436C(1), which is indeed the subsection that I particularly drew to your Lordships’ attention in covering paragraph (e). I have to disagree with my noble friend saying that it is okay; I do not think it is okay at all.
My noble friend asked what the onward obligation is to provide further information when, let us say, an extra teacher or the like is brought in. The answer according to the Bill is that there is a duty to inform the register every time, within 15 days, so that is the onward responsibility.
My noble friend is quite right that new Section 436C(2) refers to the local authority, not the parents. I pointed it out because there is an enormous number of requirements on the local authority in the registration process; they actually number 27. That is an illustration of how complicated the Bill has become and how unworkable it is in its present state.
My Lords, I very much support what the noble Lord, Lord Hacking, has said, as the Minister will know from my numerous amendments later in the Bill, which I look forward to discussing with officials.
I have three amendments in this group. Amendment 204 inquires after the process in subsection (3) describing condition A. I hope that the Minister can describe today what the Government’s reasoning is in making this change. When it comes to what the process is going to be and whether there is the capability in system to do it, I am happy to leave that to discussions with officials.
Amendment 210 questions the meaning of “without undue delay”. If the hereditary Peers Bill was amended to say that we were leaving without undue delay, I would regard that as a plus. Such phrases in the mouths of government tend to mean quite a long time. I would have thought that in these circumstances, where the education of a child is concerned, something tighter might be advisable.
Amendment 221 says that, if this is what it looks like, the parent really needs access to a tribunal. If a local authority is on song and doing things quickly and it all goes smoothly and fairly, fine, but there are a lot of local authorities—my noble friend Lord Wei named the most notoriously worst of them—where this is not the case, often just temporarily because of staff changes or short-staffing. In those circumstances, the parent needs some recourse, because it is the child that matters.
My Lords, we have got to group 3, which is good. I start by addressing the Clause 30 stand part notice tabled by my noble friend Lord Hacking. Clause 30 sets out the requirement that a child who is on a child protection plan, who is the subject of a Section 47 inquiry or who is registered at a special school cannot be removed from school to be home-educated without local authority permission.
We have set out clearly those instances—my noble friend did not necessarily agree that it was clear, but I hope that I will make it clear now—where children will fall within the scope of Clause 30 and so require consent in order to be home-educated. Specifically, it will apply to pupils in England who are of compulsory school age and for whom at least one of the following applies: the child attends a special school and they became a pupil at that school through arrangements made by the local authority; the child is subject to child protection inquiries under Section 47 of the Children Act 1989; or there is a child protection plan in place. The intent of the legislation is that, if you do not fall into one of those categories, you do not need to seek the consent of the local authority in order to home-educate your child. There is a narrow and specific group of children for whom Clause 30 suggests that their parents will need to seek the consent of the local authority.
I thank my noble friend the Minister. She has lucidly identified what we now know is the correct position and I am very grateful to her.
The children who are subject to child protection inquiries and plans are among our most vulnerable and the children who attend special schools are likely to have the highest levels of need. It is necessary that local authority consent is sought in those scenarios to ensure that these children are safe and suitably educated.
Even then, Clause 30 does not mean that these eligible families will not be able to home-educate their children. We are simply requiring the local authority to take a closer look in those circumstances. It may, in any of those three categories, be wholly appropriate for those children to be educated at home, but it is also right, given the specific circumstances, that the local authority that has responsibility—or where those children live—looks at that case and gives consent for home education in those narrow categories of cases.
We want local authorities to know which children in their areas may be home-educated and to make an informed decision to determine what will be in the best interests of the child in those circumstances. Clause 30 is underpinned by a review process; I will return to that in a moment. Statutory guidance will also be published to help schools and local authorities to carry out their new duties consistently from authority to authority and in a proportionate way.
I turn to the specific amendments. Amendments 203A and 204, in the names of the noble Lords, Lord Wei and Lord Lucas, seek to remove the requirement for parents to obtain local authority consent to home-educate should their child attend a special school under arrangements of the local authority. The Government believe it is important to retain this requirement. We totally recognise that parents of children at special schools have their children’s best interests at heart, just like other parents. However, children in special schools often have very complex needs that would be difficult for their parents to provide for at home. The loss of the support the child receives in a special school may be a major upheaval in the child’s life. Clause 30 retains an additional check that there are no educational suitability issues resulting from the loss of this support and that home education would be in the child’s best interests. It is clear that this is a different nature of concern from that represented by Section 47 inquiries or a child protection plan.
Amendment 210, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Lucas, wants to specify a timeframe for the home education consent decision to be made. I wholly share the noble Lord’s desire for decisions to be undertaken as quickly as possible. We think that the current wording in the clause, “without undue delay”, ensures as prompt a turnaround as possible. If we had an arbitrary timeline for this process—28 days, for example—that would imply that every decision was as straightforward as any other. Timings are likely to be different, depending on the circumstances of the child. By necessity, because these are children who already have other needs and requirements, the process could be complex and will involve multi-agency collaboration and information-sharing to reach a decision.
Amendment 215A seeks to ensure that local authorities offer parents an information session on home education as part of the consent process. I agree it is important that the decision to home-educate is an informed one. But the duty to secure a suitable education rests with the parent, not the local authority. With this in mind, requiring local authorities to offer mandatory information sessions would not be appropriate. It is parents who should be taking responsibility for researching their educational choices. Parents should carefully consider their responsibilities and the financial implications of home-educating before requesting permission to withdraw their child from school. We will ensure that the department’s relevant guidance provides key information that a parent needs to consider when contemplating whether to home-educate. Local authorities and schools can signpost to this should they become aware of parental intentions to home-educate.
Amendment 219, tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Barran, seeks to require local authorities to provide a statement of reasons to parents when refusing a request for consent. As the noble Baroness suspected, it is the case that local authorities are already obliged to provide their rationale for such a decision. We intend to make this clear in the relevant statutory guidance, which will need to be updated so that relevant professionals know what is required of them.
Finally, Amendment 221, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Lucas, looks to provide a tribunal appeals process as a review in the case of a local authority’s decision to refuse to grant permission to home-educate a child. We do not believe that this amendment is necessary because Clause 30 already provides for a review process. Parents who disagree with the local authority’s decision to grant or refuse permission to home-educate their child can refer the decision to the Secretary of State for review. They will carefully consider the full facts of the case. Having done so, the Secretary of State has the power to either uphold the local authority’s decision, to direct the local authority to grant consent or to refer the question back to the local authority for review.
Let us not talk about what will happen and when in terms of engagement with my officials. Just to be clear: as I said at the beginning of my remarks, that engagement will enable noble Lords to get an understanding of the way the Government intend to implement these provisions and to get some assurance around the processes that will be used. It will not be another opportunity for noble Lords who fundamentally oppose what the Government are doing—I am thinking of the noble Lord, who started his contribution by saying that he fundamentally opposes what we are trying to do here. I am not sure that the engagement will be particularly helpful for persuading, through officials, the Government to wholly change their approach to this. As I said, it is intended to look at the detail and to provide some assurance about how the processes will work.
I will reiterate the point I made previously. Clause 30 is introducing a consent mechanism and, specifically, a review process of that consent mechanism. Home-educating parents may well have written on other issues to the Secretary of State and been dissatisfied with the response that they received. However, that is different from the review process that is spelled out in legislation in Clause 30.
I turn to the points made by my noble friend Lady Morris. She is right. She asks questions that are the subject of amendments to be debated in later groups, but they are very reasonable. She asked about how much time a child would need to study with a provider for it to be reported, and how often and how quickly parents would need to update the details about that. Those are precisely the types of issues that would be subject to the further consultation around the regulations and guidance, including with home-educating parents and others, to ensure that we do that in a way that balances the burdens and requirements on parents, alongside ensuring that the local authority has the basic information that it needs to make the scheme work properly. In this area, there is considerable scope for consultation and engagement about how precisely that will work. I hope that answers my noble friend’s question and that the noble Lord, Lord Wei, will feel able to withdraw his amendment.
I am very grateful to my noble friend the Minister for her flexibility on the notification period, which in the Bill currently is 15 days. It is very nice to hear that the Government and my noble friend can be more flexible about it and are prepared to discuss it. I thank her very much indeed for that. I gave a very strong indictment against new Section 426C—
Can I just clarify whether my noble friend is concluding the group or intervening on me?
Does my noble friend want me to respond again? That is what I would like to know.
I am getting up to thank the Minister for her willingness to consider the timetable for the notification by the schooling parent of any changes in the educational plan, which they will have had to give already in detail under new Section 426C(1)(e). I am asking her, as I did in my speech, whether she and the Government would be willing to look at the actual terms of subsection (e), which have been widely described as very onerous. I gave examples of that, such as the need to give details of Sunday schooling. I also pointed out that that type of information is not sought at all from parents with children at state schools. I remind her that, after the very successful meeting with the Minister, Stephen Morgan, on 17 June, I wrote a follow-up letter on 20 June, copying in my noble friend. I asked specifically whether the provisions in subsection (e) could be reviewed, with a schooling parent, to find a practical answer. I must suggest again that, in its present form, it is most onerous.
The questions that my noble friend asks are, I think, the subject of amendments in later groups, which is when I had presumed we would come to those details. I will stick to that, if that is okay.
My Lords, I support the noble Lord, Lord Wei, on all these amendments, but particularly on his Amendment 423. At an earlier stage in these proceedings, the noble Lord, Lord Nash, who is no longer in his place on the Benches, was very critical of home-schooling, alleging that there were poor results in home-schooling. Anything that home-schoolers can do in order to show the success of their home-schooling is to be encouraged. For that reason, I particularly support Amendment 423.
My Lords, all the amendments in this group in the name of my noble friend Lord Wei seek to find exemptions to the basic principle that there should be a register of children not in school; therefore, I cannot support these. First, the point of the register is to ensure that the local authority knows which children are not in school, and these amendments would undermine that. Secondly, and importantly, it allows home-educating parents to access support where they need it. I hope we might spend a bit more time on that in future groups. Finally, these amendments make an assumption that, in these conditions, it may be preferable to educate the child at home, and this could well be right, but, in my opinion, it remains reasonable and proportionate to record which children are not in school.
My Lords, I think I have to correct myself, because I have said, on behalf of home-schooling mothers, that we favour the registry. I said that two years ago and during the Schools Bill of 2022. I did not comprehend that these amendments by the noble Lord, Lord Wei, are anti-register. I therefore cannot remain loyal to what I have just said in support of them, because I think the register is important, but Amendment 423 still stands good and I continue to support it.
My Lords, very briefly, I find myself roughly in agreement with the noble Baroness, Lady Barran, on this one: a register should be there.
(8 months, 2 weeks ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, as a number of your Lordships know, I prepared an assessment on the school fees issue. I believe that this assessment was fair, honest and accurate. I sent a copy to the Prime Minister on 15 August and have supplied a number of Peers with copies, including my noble friend the Minister.
On the essential issue of the likely forced pupil migration, it is clear that the Government’s assessment is patently wrong. The consequences are grave: no profits whatever for the much-needed benefit to state education; and 80,000 pupils being forcibly migrated from the independent sector. This must not happen. I ask my noble friend the Minister to prevent it.
(10 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I stand here as a supporter of the Government, but no support can be blind. I cannot support the proposed VAT on independent school fees, whether or not it was in the manifesto. It is immoral and destined to bring about significant social and political damage to my party and the country.
There are many serious worries. For example, the introduction of an education tax will put us at odds with every country in the European Union and all federal and state law in the United States of America. There is also a serious worry about a blatant breach of the education provision in article 2 of the first protocol of the European Convention on Human Rights. Unfortunately, the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, is not among us, but we have heard his views through the noble Lord, Lord Alton, and he supports entirely what I just said.
The most worrying feature is the failure properly to assess the likely level of forced pupil migration from the independent to the state sector—a vital assessment. The VAT proponents have not revealed their calculations, but the arithmetic is such that any pupil migration above 10% will wipe out any profit for the state and become a progressive burden on the state. Since the VAT proponents are still claiming a profit of between £1.3 billion and £1.5 billion for the state sector, the assumption has to be that they are the working on a very low pupil migration figure, possibly as low as 5%.
There are other calculations. The October 2022 parent survey by the Independent Schools Council, conducted among 16,000 parents, found that 18.8% of parents were likely take their children out of independent education. In April 2024, a parent survey by the Times newspaper set a pupil migration figure of 26%. A preparatory school in Surrey forecasted the same 26% migration of pupils. The Hulme Grammar School in Oldham believes that 50% of parents will find it difficult to meet the VAT school fees. Scaling down the figures as far as possible, this means we are risking no less than 80,000 to 108,000 pupils being forced from the independent sector, with all the education disruption and distress this will involve, and with a big burden of new pupils being placed into the state sector.
The task, therefore, upon which I have embarked is to persuade my party not to carry this measure further forward. It must be noted that the well-endowed schools constitute only 10% of the independent sector, as the noble Lord, Lord Lexden, pointed out. The axe will fall not on them, although they will be affected, but on the hundreds of independent schools, some very small, throughout the country which are providing most valuable education to supplement the state sector. Take, for example, the independent schools in Greater Manchester that I recently visited—the Hulme Grammar School, which I have just mentioned, and the Bolton School in Bolton. As I learned, the parents are just working people employed in health, education, catering and hospitality. They are taxi drivers, joiners, carpenters, and all are making great sacrifices to provide a better education for their children. These are the very people my party has pledged to support.
Finally, I can only repeat that this VAT proposal is wrong. Any reasonable assessment of likely pupil migration will show that it will provide no benefit to the state but would be a heavy burden on it. I ask the Minister and the Government to respond positively to all these concerns and, as promised by the Leader of the House, to listen to constructive criticism.
No—the noble Lord has had the opportunity to have his say, and I want to respond to as many of the points that have been made as possible.
Private education is not an option for most of those people and, unlike the last Government, we will not build public policy around the expectation that public services will fail our children. Most parents need local state-funded schools to support them in meeting these aspirations. It is therefore right for the Government to focus on improving those schools—a public good that will benefit all of us.
Several noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, have identified the significance of education and the contribution that investment in that education makes. My noble friend Lady Ramsey identified the gap between that investment provided to our state schools and that provided to private schools: there was a 40% gap in 2010 and there is a 90% gap now. The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, said that we should spend more on state schools. The noble Lord, Lord Winston, talked about the deprivation and impact on aspiration of those who do not get the education that they deserve, and argued for more investment. That is precisely what this Government want to do—but we arrived into government to discover a £22 billion black hole and, unlike the previous Government, we are determined to make that investment in our schools but make it on a sustainable basis whereby we can outline where that money is coming from. That is why ending the tax breaks on VAT and business rates for private schools is a tough but necessary decision. It will generate additional funding to help to improve public services, including the Government’s commitments relating to education and young people.
VAT will apply to tuition and boarding fees charged by private schools for terms starting on or after 1 January 2025. I assure noble Lords that the impact of those changes has been assessed and that the Office for Budget Responsibility will certify the Government’s costings for those measures at the Budget.
Several noble Lords have asked what the impact will be of introducing the change on 1 January. We are impatient in this Government to ensure that we can start funding the improvements that so many noble Lords have argued for—that is one reason. It is also worth while, when thinking about the impact of the changes, to recognise that, for many pupils, the change should not mean that parents will automatically face 20% higher fees—nor do we expect pupils to move immediately. Most of the analysis suggests that that will not happen to the extent that pupils move at all—and I shall return to that point.
The Government expect private schools to take steps to minimise fee increases, including through reclaiming the VAT that they incur in supplying education and boarding—so the estimate is that the real VAT impact will be 15%. We think that that will happen, because we have seen what has happened in recent times. There have been above-inflation increases in private school fees for very many years. There has been a 55% increase since 2003 and a 20% increase since 2010, and there has not been a large exodus of pupils from those schools, which of course suggests an inelastic demand for private school places. It is reasonable for the Government to model and think about future impact based on previous experience.
We have provided considerable information around the proposal—both in the technical note and the draft VAT legislation. The technical consultation remains open until 15 September, and I encourage those who are interested to contribute to that as well.
The noble Baroness, Lady Monckton, raised a specific issue about the support to implement the VAT regime. The Government recognise that this will be the first time for many schools that they will need to register for VAT, and HMRC will publish bespoke guidance. It will also contact private schools directly with information about support sessions that will help them to go through this process.
The noble Lord, Lord Lucas, and the noble Baroness, Lady Barran, raised issues about what potential there is to raise revenue here. This will of course be part of the OBR assessment that will be published alongside the Finance Bill at the time of the Budget, which will enable us to consider the broad impact of this—not just the taxation impact but the broader cost impact as well. The IFS estimates that it will raise an extra £1.3 billion to £1.5 billion per year in the medium to long term. As I say, these points will be certified by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The Treasury is doing an economic analysis of the impact of this policy change and the interaction with other behaviours that might come about because of the introduction of VAT.
While there will be more detailed information about the revenue raised by this measure, this seems like a reasonable estimate of the revenue that will be raised. Unlike some other noble Lords, I do not see that amount of money as being inconsiderable. Of course there is more that I would certainly hope that we as a Government will be able to find to invest in education, as previous Labour Governments have, but this is an important contribution to some very important changes that we wish to make.
The noble Baroness, Lady Finlay, asked about the devolution consequences of VAT receipts. I assure her that additional funding provided for schools in England will be matched in the devolved Administrations in line with the Barnett formula.
I move to the issue of special educational needs. Understandably, this has been raised by many noble Lords this afternoon, in particular the noble Lord, Lord Shinkwin, in his contribution about the enormous significance of the independent special school that he identified, and the noble Baroness, Lady Monckton. Once again, I say that there is excellence in the private sector in independent special schools. Such excellence is the reason why, when there is a particular need for a pupil educated in the state sector to benefit from that excellence and its provisions for their education, health and care plan, that place is paid for by the local authority. The local authority will have the ability to reclaim the VAT placed on that fee, so there will be no impact on the parents of those children with the most acute special educational needs. I can also confirm, in answer to questions from the noble Baroness, Lady Barran, that further education institutions will not be affected by these provisions, and non-maintained special schools are exempt as well.
I can understand the concern of parents—given what I said previously about everybody’s aspiration—particularly where their children have special educational needs that have not been met or assessed through an education, health and care plan, in wanting to think about the best place for their children to go, but we cannot organise policy on the basis of the broken state of public provision for children with specific learning needs. This is a government failure long in the making. I share the passion of the noble Lord, Lord Addington, about the way in which the current system is working. In fact, the former Secretary of State for Education, after 13 years of her party’s approach to special educational needs, rightly described this issue as “lose, lose, lose”. One reason for needing the additional investment that this provision will provide is to help begin turning round the special educational needs system, which I wholly agree currently fails too many of our students.
In response to those who have asked for further discussions about the position of independent special schools, we are happy to continue having those conversations. However, I reiterate that, for those children with acute needs who are being educated in independent special schools with an EHCP, there will be no impact on them from this VAT change. We will actively listen to the questions and concerns being raised and will meet with our colleagues.
Several noble Lords, including my noble friend Lord Hacking and the noble Baroness, Lady Barran, raised the impact of these changes on state schools. The Government believe that the number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of these changes represent a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector. As I have already outlined, those parents paying to send their children to private schools have already experienced considerably above-inflation increases and have not chosen to move their children, but we will of course monitor local demand to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to increase capacity where required.
I take the noble Baroness’s point about the differential impact, potentially, on different parts of the country, and DfE officials will monitor that very carefully, but children move between the private and state sectors every year and local authorities and schools have processes in place to support their transition. In terms of places, of course we are going through a period of demographic change. Even if the pupil displacement is above the estimate of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, which suggested that up to 40,000 might move over a period of time, that is still likely to represent less than 1% of the more than 9 million total UK state school pupils. The latest figures published showed that 83% of primary schools and 77% of secondary schools have one or more unfilled places.
I turn to the issues raised by the noble Baronesses, Lady Fraser and Lady Bull, about the enormously important contribution of Music and Dance Scheme schools. We can all see, in the talent of the noble Baroness, Lady Bull, the significance of those schools. We are continuing to engage with the schools currently within the Music and Dance Scheme project. As has already been outlined by noble Lords—and I wholly agree that, for the good of all of us, we need low-income families to be able to send their children to those schools when they have that talent—the children of parents who cannot afford the fees are funded by the Music and Dance Scheme. We will consider, in the light of the VAT charges, how and whether we can change that scheme to compensate for the VAT issue. We are willing to carry on talking, as we have done, to representatives from the Music and Dance Scheme schools about the impact of this change of policy. The same goes, as the noble Earl, Lord Clancarty, raised, for the dance and drama awards, where we will also continue having discussions that we have already started with the schools in that category.
Noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Kempsell, the noble Baroness, Lady Garden, and the noble Earl, Lord Devon, raised the issue of military families. I reiterate that the Government recognise the enormous sacrifices our military families make; of course, that is why the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office provide the continuity of education allowance to eligible officials and service personnel. It is also worth pointing out that very many military personnel send their children to state schools and want to benefit from the improvements that will happen in those state schools. However, the Government will monitor closely the impact of these policy changes on affected military and diplomatic families. The upcoming spending review is the right time to consider any changes to this scheme, but we will continue to look very carefully at that.
Several noble Lords talked about the contribution of private schools, and the defence was that because they contribute through partnerships with state schools or by providing bursaries, we should not interfere with that. I welcome the contributions private schools make to cross-sector partnerships, as outlined by the noble Lord, Lord Maude, my noble friend Lord Winston and the noble and learned Lord, Lord Etherton; I hope that will continue. Certainly, for schools with charitable status, as charities, and in line with legislation passed by the last Labour Government, they must continue to demonstrate public benefit. I hope they will continue to do that through the provision of a small number of means-tested bursaries and through partnership with local state schools. I think they will continue to demonstrate their broad public benefit through those wider contributions.
On the legal position, raised by the noble Lord, Lord Alton—channelling the noble Lord, Lord Pannick —and my noble friend Lord Hacking, I am not going to speculate on the outcome of the ongoing technical consultation. However, legal considerations have been incorporated into the process, as is standard for all legislative changes, and we are confident that the measures are compatible with the Human Rights Act 1998.
I know I have not managed to cover all of the wide range of issues that have been raised, and I undertake to write to noble Lords, but I assure the House that private schools will remain part of our education system. The choice to send your child there will remain. However, most children are educated in the state sector and that is where we must target our support and resources most. We will work closely with schools and local authorities to make the implementation of the new tax rules as smooth as possible. I thank noble Lords for their contributions this afternoon.
These are therefore imaginary words being used in the House of Lords. My noble friend was kind enough to mention the first protocol of the European Convention on Human Rights, but I would be very grateful if she could send a letter, particularly to myself and the noble Lord, Lord Alton, on the advice the Government are receiving relating to that very important issue. I remind her that it was a Labour Government, in 1998, who brought that provision into our law under the Human Rights Act 1998.
My noble friend is right, and I am very proud of that. Our position, as I said, has been tested in the legal advice in the consideration of these changes. Our view is that being charged at the standard rate of VAT paid by millions of businesses across the UK is not discriminatory and is clearly proportionate to the objective of better funding for state schools. To the extent that I am able, I will certainly ensure that I write further about that issue to my noble friend and to others.