Defence Transformation

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 18th July 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

It defies belief that senior former Ministers of the previous Government can still come to this House and demand that we spend money that is not there. The right hon. Gentleman complains about cuts, but I have to point out to him that we have had to introduce cuts right across public spending because the previous Government left us with a £158 billion annual deficit, and what he calls the equipment programme was no more than a wish list at the MOD; there was no money in the pipeline for it. The programmes I have announced today—the 14 Chinooks, for example—I have been able to announce because there is real money there; they were never able to make such announcements because of their incompetent management of both the Department and the economy.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

Elements of air defence have been present at Leuchars in my constituency for the best part of 100 years, as part of the continuing obligation of all Governments to preserve the safety of their citizens. Because I believe in that obligation on the part of Government to defend their citizens, I cannot support the decision not to retain Leuchars as a Royal Air Force base. I believe that decision to be fundamentally wrong, strategically inept and likely to increase risk to our citizens. Will my right hon. Friend confirm that his decision to discontinue Royal Air Force use of Leuchars was taken against the advice of the most senior commanders of the Royal Air Force? Finally, the proposals for alternative use of Leuchars by Army units lack dates, details and substance. What cast-iron guarantees can my right hon. Friend give that these promises will be kept and that the money for them will be found?

[Dr Fox]

First, may I say to my right hon. and learned Friend that, in what has been a passionate debate about basing, few have defended their constituency interests as passionately as he has, and that I know he is bitterly disappointed with the decision that has been taken? Across the services—it was not just a decision of one service—we looked to see what we thought was the best decision for defence as a whole. Because we wanted to bring the Army back from Germany, because we thought this was a suitable place in the south of Scotland to have one of the multi-role brigades and because we thought that this was good for the footprint of our defence forces in the United Kingdom, it made sense to coalesce our air force at Lossiemouth. I understand that some people, including my right hon. and learned Friend, will be disappointed, but the feeling across the services was that, on balance, this was the right decision.

Mull of Kintyre Review

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Wednesday 13th July 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

I of course agree with the hon. Lady. There are a lot of downsides to being a Member of Parliament, but one upside is the ability to see justice done and a wrong righted.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

If Parliament exists for the redress of grievance, today is a most eloquent illustration of that principle. My right hon. Friend deserves great credit for taking the decision that he has announced, and for the nature of the apology he has offered to the families, with whom I have been in contact over many years in relation to this campaign. I have always been impressed by their steadfast determination and dignity. Does my right hon. Friend understand that satisfaction at the outcome today is tempered by dismay that the original decision turned on legal advice that was palpably and self-evidently wrong?

[Dr Fox]

What I find somewhat difficult, having looked back at the various inquiries, is that nobody seemed to focus on the quality of the legal advice given at the time to the reviewing officers. There was a lot of focus on what happened on the ground and on the condition of the aircraft. Nobody seemed to focus on this essential point, which seems to be where the injustice emanated from.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 4th July 2011 Commons Chamber

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

My right hon. Friend will not be surprised to learn that RAF Leuchars in my constituency continues to fulfil its responsibilities for the air defence of the northern half of the United Kingdom with the professionalism and commitment that we have come to expect. Has he assessed the extent of the effect on the ability of Leuchars—or, indeed, of any other air base in Scotland—to operate if Scotland was not under the umbrella of NATO?

[Dr Fox]

I had a chance to visit Leuchars recently to thank those who carry out those duties on our behalf. My right hon. and learned Friend raises an important point. Those in the Scottish National party in the Scottish Government who pretend that they can enjoy both the security of the Crown forces and the luxury of talking about leaving NATO leave a lot to be desired intellectually.

Defence Reform

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 27th June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

One of the reasons why I was keen that we should have the Joint Forces Command with its own four-star at the top was that I believe that people who are involved in defence at any level—in logistics, in ISTAR, in defence intelligence or in defence medical—should have a chance to rise to the top of the tree, if they have the talents to do so. I want to create a fourth pillar precisely to create a more meritocratic structure. That will be much more transparent than what we had before, because we will not be able to have the stovepiping that gives primary allegiance to single services rather than defence as a whole.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

I hope that my right hon. Friend will excuse me if I sound a note of caution. I have lost track of the number of occasions on which I heard his predecessors stand at the Dispatch Box and promise us accountability, responsibility and efficiency. How can we be sure that these necessary qualities will arise as a consequence of the implementation of Levene?

To go from the abstract to the particular, when senior commanders, both in public and in private, express reservations about the sustainability of current operations, does the Secretary of State have not a scintilla of doubt about the match between commitments and resources?

[Dr Fox]

We have already put in place some of the recommendations, including the defence board, and we have begun implementing some of the other changes. We have put into place the major projects board, which will give greater accountability in terms of the running of the major projects. As for Libya, I repeat the point that I made earlier. While we will constantly look at the resources available, the public message must be simply that we understand the mission that we are undertaking, its legality and its moral force, and we have the political will and military wherewithal to see it through.

Nuclear Deterrent

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Wednesday 18th May 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

I shall do my best to answer the long list of questions that the right hon. Gentleman asked. I shall check Hansard, and if I have missed any I shall write to him with further details.

May I thank the right hon. Gentleman for the Opposition’s support for the principle of this policy? Cross-party support adds greatly to the credibility of our deterrence policy, which is an essential part of the protection of our country. He rightly says that the major proliferation risk at the moment comes from North Korea and Iran. We do not know whether other countries will join in that so, as he says, it is entirely prudent to retain a minimum, independent, credible nuclear deterrent for the United Kingdom.

The right hon. Gentleman asked a number of specific questions about costs. The costs of the various items were set out in the 2006 White Paper, when they were broadly split into: £11 billion to £14 billion for the submarine; £2 billion to £3 billion for the warhead; and £2 billion to £3 billion for infrastructure. We believe that those costs are still contained in the programme itself. He asked specifically about long lead items, on which, as I said in my statement, approximately £500 million will be spent. They include: the specialised high-grade steel; the main boat systems, such as the computer systems, hydraulic systems and atmospheric systems, the generators and the communications systems; and specialist components, including steam generators and test rigs for the propulsion plants.

On our wider international co-operation, we continue to work, as we set out in our treaty with France, on the capabilities required constantly to maintain the safety of our warheads. There are no plans for collaboration on deployment of a deterrent that goes beyond the treaty that has been signed. Agreement with the United States on the major parameters of the jointly developed common missile compartment design, which will be capable of carrying the Trident D5 missiles and any replacement once the D5 reaches the end of its life in the 2040s, has been a major part of our cost containment during the process.

The right hon. Gentleman asked about the overall costs of the programme. As I said, £3 billion of those will fall between now and 2016. The costs for the years that fall within the current comprehensive spending review are met by the current defence budget settlement. He asked about the life and costs of the Vanguard class submarines. Our assessment when we undertook the value-for-money study was that we could extend Vanguard’s life to 2028 without having huge additional maintenance and upgrade costs, and while preserving our continuous at-sea deterrent—CASD. To go beyond 2028 would almost certainly have huge cost implications and might have implications for CASD that we are not willing to undertake. Those were the reasons we took the overall decision, and I hope that I have answered the right hon. Gentleman’s specific questions.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

My right hon. Friend is well known for his independence and openness of mind, as was shown by his recently published correspondence with the Prime Minister. May we take it that the conclusions of the study to which he has referred will be published? Given that independence of mind, may we also take it that if the study produces credible procurement and policy alternatives, he will take proper account of them?

Armed Forces Covenant

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 16th May 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for asking for clarification on that point, and I can give him this assurance, which, as he knows, I have given the House on a number of occasions. I have wanted to see a maximising of transparency on this, and I have therefore decided that the external reference group will be able to see the Secretary of State’s report in advance and comment on it, and that we will publish those comments and any other representations at the same time as we publish the report of the covenant to Parliament.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

I understand my right hon. Friend’s attempt to draw a distinction between Government and community obligation, but is not the Government’s responsibility also a moral one? For that reason, should we not recognise that the Government have a duty not to expose our armed forces to unnecessary risk, always to provide equipment that is fit for purpose, and to ensure that the operations that our men and women are obliged to take part in are always proportionate and legal?

[Dr Fox]

Legality has to be a foregone conclusion in this House if we are to take our appropriate place in the international family of civilised nations. As to the Government’s duty in sending our armed forces into combat, I would say that they have two clear duties: one is to ensure that we maximise the chance of success of their mission; the second is ensuring the minimum risk to them in carrying out that mission. Both those duties imply that the armed forces must be properly equipped for any task that any Government ever send them to carry out.

Armed Forces (Redundancies)

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Tuesday 15th February 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

I am grateful, Mr Speaker.

The Opposition need to ask themselves why we have to make those reductions. It is because of the incompetence and the economic inheritance that they left behind. We will set out the programme of reductions in staff—the 17,000 mentioned—over the next five years. There was a great deal of inaccurate information in the newspaper story about the RAF trainee pilots. They are being briefed individually and collectively on the specific proposals that affect them. It is appropriate that that happens in private, not on the Floor of the House of Commons.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

The events of the past 48 hours are sad, sorry events at which we should all express some regret, not least in the case of the individual who is serving his country in a hot war on the other side of the world. Does the Secretary of State accept that such events have a resonance beyond the units, and indeed, beyond the services, in which they occur? Does that not place an enormous obligation and responsibility on him and his fellow Ministers—to some extent discharged by the fact that he has come to the House personally to respond to the urgent question—to ensure that everything possible is done so that something of this kind never happens again?

Armed Forces Bill

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 10th January 2011 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

I would like gently to correct my hon. Friend’s statistics: complex post-traumatic stress disorder can emerge up to 14 years afterwards; 14 is not the average figure, and in fact it is often much earlier than that. However, he is correct that there is a time spectrum involved here, which is why it is essential that we have in place mechanisms to deal not only with those who present acutely, but with those who present at a much later date. We shall be undertaking further work and research to ensure that the mechanisms we put in place to deal with that are fully informed by the objective evidence of the science of the day.

I reiterate what I have said in the House before: we are seeing a modest increase in the number of cases of PTSD. We have seen them related to conflicts as long ago as the Falklands; we have seen them from the Gulf war; and we are bound to see them from Iraq and Afghanistan, and if we are not able to deal with those issues and put in place the mechanisms for dealing with them adequately, we will let down not only those who have put themselves at risk for our country’s security, but the country itself. As I said before, I believe that still in this country mental health is too much of a Cinderella service in health care in general. We must not allow that to happen in the armed forces, especially for those who have been willing to sacrifice themselves for us.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

I am most grateful to the Secretary of State for giving way; he is being characteristically generous in doing so. He will be aware that the Bill places upon him a duty to lay a report before the House of Commons on health care, education and housing, and that he has a discretion to go beyond those topics—that is expressly provided for. In view of what he has just said about health care being a Cinderella subject, would it not be appropriate to put it in the Bill as a topic upon which he has a duty, like other duties, to report in express terms to the House?

[Dr Fox]

It is clear that the Government intend such a report to include health care, housing and education. However, my right hon. and learned Friend will not be surprised to hear that I would happily be tempted into other areas within the discretion that the Bill allows. That is an absolute minimum. The country would expect us to look at wider and interrelated issues, if we are to offer the degree of scrutiny that the House and the country would want on this subject.

Clause 2 provides for what the Secretary of State must cover in his report, and as my right hon. and learned Friend said, effects on health care, education and housing will normally be addressed in it. There are perennial issues that I believe will always be important to the service and ex-service community, and those are among the foremost. Other issues will emerge at the time, so the Bill provides for flexibility, and I will want to consider other issues as they emerge.

There is also the question about who is covered in the Bill. The Bill refers to a broad span of people. The total number of serving and former personnel and their families is about 10 million—one in six of the population of this country. For ex-service personnel, the Bill specifies an interest in those who are resident in the UK. Again, that does not prevent a Secretary of State from covering relevant issues for those who live abroad, although many aspects of their lives would be matters for their own Governments.

The Bill—rightly in the Government’s view—says little about how the annual report will be prepared, but as I said in response to the right hon. Member for Coventry North East (Mr Ainsworth), we intend to consult widely and to ensure that there is rigour and independence in the information that is ultimately put before the House through the Secretary of State’s report. My intention, as Defence Secretary, will therefore be to consult widely with interested parties, inside and outside Government, in preparing a report. Charities and devolved Administrations will have much to contribute, as too, no doubt, will Members of the House of Commons.

I also believe, however, that the report will evolve over time. We are breaking new ground, and we will learn from experience, listen to comments and move forward together in a positive way. I am clear that that is the right way to proceed, rather than making the legislation excessively prescriptive.

The Bill also contains a group of clauses that will further buttress the independence and effectiveness of service police investigations. I am delighted that shortly before Christmas the High Court gave a strong endorsement of the ability of the service police to investigate, under the Armed Forces Act 2006, the most serious allegations. Nevertheless, we want to be sure that the independence and effectiveness of service police investigations have all the safeguards we can reasonably provide.

The first clause in the group places on each of the three provost marshals—the heads of the service police forces—a duty to ensure that service police investigations are carried out free from improper interference. The second clause provides for the service police to be inspected by Her Majesty’s inspectorate of constabulary. The inspectorate has previously inspected the service police on a voluntary basis, but the clause places an obligation on it to carry out inspections of the service police and lay its reports before Parliament. The third clause provides that the three provost marshals will in future be appointed to their positions by Her Majesty the Queen. Once again, that recognises and reinforces their independence from the service chains of command when carrying out investigations. In making these changes, we seek to ensure that the service police will continue to carry out to the highest standards their role as a part of the armed forces but one that is independent of the main chains of command, and I believe that the provisions in the Bill will do just that.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 13th December 2010 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

It is very clear that the aim is to have the threat degraded and the capability of the Afghan national security forces increased, so that they can take control of their own security. Some assistance with training and support may be required, but it is very clear—President Karzai has repeatedly made it clear—that it is the wish of the sovereign Government of Afghanistan that they take control of their own security by the end of 2014.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

What possible strategic advantage would there be in the closure of RAF Leuchars in my constituency, when the base is uniquely geographically positioned to provide comprehensive air defence for the northern half of the United Kingdom?

[Dr Fox]

My right hon. and learned Friend makes an eloquent bid for the retention of the base in his constituency, as he has also done in private. As I said in answer to an earlier question, the basing review will be based purely on what gives Britain the best defence network. We will be taking those decisions over the coming months. We understand that there will be other considerations but, in determining our bases, it is the Ministry of Defence’s job to consider what makes Britain safest.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 8th November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

Leaving aside the assumptions in the hon. Lady’s question, which are an argument in themselves, her key point is whether the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder is related to tour length or tour frequency, or a combination of the two. Evidence increasingly tends to suggest that the key element is the length of the tour rather than the frequency, and that, of course, will instruct the Government’s thinking.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

Does the Secretary of State accept that mental health issues sometimes come to light only as a result of self-referral and that the culture of all three services is against such self-referral? Is one way of dealing with that to ensure that, during training, people—and not just those who will be in the chain of command—accept and understand the possibility of mental health issues arising, and that they are willing to recognise that and, if necessary, to take steps to deal with it?

[Dr Fox]

That is true for not only the armed forces but society in general. Only when we, as a society, remove some of the taboo of mental illness will we properly unlock the ability to deal with it successfully. My right hon. and learned Friend is correct that we need to look at people’s willingness to self refer, and that process is made easier if they can contact a helpline run by members or ex-members of the armed forces, in whom they are likely to be able to place greater faith.

Defence Treaties (France)

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Tuesday 2nd November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

The contracts are currently under discussion, and it is a matter of commercial sensitivity exactly what the numbers are. We do, however, believe that it would save very substantial millions for the United Kingdom to go ahead with the facility in France.

On the question of this being an integrationist measure—far from it, because we are able to understand the difference between geographical Europe and political Europe. What we want to see is a partnership with another sovereign nation on the European continent, not supranational control from the European Union.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

The Secretary of State will be aware from his frequent visits to Washington that there is a sense in the United States, particularly since the end of the cold war, that European nations have not been willing to do enough for their own defence. Are not these treaties, with the purpose of maximising joint capability, an effort to answer that criticism?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 13th September 2010 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

There are two issues. First, why would we want to get involved in further joint co-operation? Clearly, economy of scale needs to be taken into account in the difficult budgetary environment. Secondly, who would the key partners be? In looking at key partners, we certainly consider operational effectiveness and those countries that are likely to deploy and to spend on the research necessary to get the capability we would want. Clearly, for such partnerships, the two front-runners are the United States and France.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

Does the Secretary of State accept that there may be circumstances in which it is more effective to share responsibilities rather than equipment? Will he tell the House whether, as a result of his meeting in Paris last week, there was any discussion of the possibility of sharing responsibility for nuclear deterrence?

[Dr Fox]

We have repeatedly made it clear that we believe that having an independent nuclear deterrent is a vital part of the United Kingdom’s sovereign capability, and we intend to keep it that way. Where we can co-operate on technical matters with the French, without interfering with our sovereign capability in any way, it would make sense to do so.

UK Armed Forces in Afghanistan

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Thursday 9th September 2010 Commons Chamber

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

rose—

[Dr Fox]

I give way, for absolutely the last time, to my right hon. and learned Friend.

[Sir Menzies Campbell]

I think that there are many in the House who want to hear the Secretary of State and welcome the opportunity to do so. Indeed, I think we should be grateful to him for his generosity in giving way.

I want to take the Secretary of State back to the terms of withdrawal. The shadow Defence Secretary rightly referred to what General Petraeus has been saying recently, but there is another dimension—the decision of President Barack Obama, who is on record as saying that he intends to start withdrawing troops by June or July of next year. That decision, of course, is not unrelated to President Obama’s prospects for re-election: it is directly related to the electoral cycle. If President Obama fulfils his pledge, how does the Secretary of State think that that will be consistent with the outline of the British Government’s position which he has just given the House?

[Dr Fox]

The American Administration have made it very clear that they are talking about the beginning of draw-down from its very highest level some time next year. That will coincide with the period when the Afghan national army is greater in number than the ISAF forces, so there is an element of logic to that position. However, President Obama has also made it clear that it was important to send a signal to the Afghan Government that they needed to have an idea of a time scale within which they would begin to develop the skills that they will need to be able to take over control and governance of their own country. Indeed, many believe that since the President embarked on that approach there has been a renewed sense of urgency in Kabul about exactly how the security forces were to be trained and the rate at which that occurred.

I believe that the Taliban’s only realistic hope is that international resolve to continue the war will collapse before the Afghan Government themselves are effective enough to stand on their own. The message that we need to send from the House today is that that hope of the Taliban is an empty one. The steady development of the Afghan national security forces underpins the strategic collapse of the insurgent position. It is said by some that the Taliban have time on their side—that they just have to wait us out. To an extent, the opposite is true. Their window of opportunity to defeat ISAF before the establishment of increasingly credible and effective Afghan security forces has shrunk, is shrinking further, and will shrink further.

Our message to the Afghan people is a clear one, and it needs to be communicated by our deeds as well as our words. We are neither colonisers nor occupiers. We are there under a UN mandate. We are there as a coalition of 47 countries from across the globe. We are not in Afghanistan to create a carbon copy of a western democracy, and we are not there to convert the people to western ways. We seek the government of Afghanistan by the Afghans, for the Afghans. We insist only that it does not pose a threat to our security, our interests or our allies.

When it comes to the defence and security of our country, we are at our strongest when we speak with one voice—when we are clear about what we are seeking to achieve and have the support of this House, and the public, for that endeavour. I hope that today’s enterprise takes us one step closer to that.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 5th July 2010 Commons Chamber

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

My hon. Friend will have observed that the Secretary of State declined an opportunity to state that he would publish the results of the Trident value for money review. May I urge him to publish the foreign policy baseline, which is the starting point of the defence review, so that the House can have the opportunity to debate the Government’s foreign policy objectives before we are presented with a fait accompli in the defence review itself?

[Dr Fox]

During the debate on the strategic defence and security review, I set out the foreign policy baseline, as I have on previous occasions, and as the Foreign Secretary also has. It will be considered as part of the debate inside the National Security Council as part of cross-departmental security reviews.

Strategic Defence and Security Review

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Monday 21st June 2010 Commons Chamber

[Dr Fox]

It is not an obligation, but I certainly think that it adds credibility to our position as a member of P5. As I have said, our position on nuclear weapons is that in a dangerous world, when we are looking to 2050 or beyond, we cannot play fast and loose with Britain’s defences. We do not know what threats will emerge or what will happen in terms of future proliferation, and we are simply not willing to take a gamble.

[Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) (LD)]

The Secretary of State began this passage of his speech by talking about returning to first principles. That allows me to take up an issue that he dealt with a moment or two ago, which is this: in determining the structure of our armed forces, in determining the location of bases, and in determining procurement decisions, must we not accept that the motivation has to be what is in the best interests of defence? If I may be excused for putting the matter pejoratively, we should not be using defence as some kind of job creation scheme.

Foreign Affairs and Defence

Debate between Lord Campbell of Pittenweem and Liam Fox

Wednesday 26th May 2010 Commons Chamber

[Sir Menzies Campbell]

I agree entirely with my right hon. Friend. Over the years he and I, along with many others in both Houses, have sought to persuade the previous Government, and indeed the Government before that, to undertake such a review. On one occasion we met Prime Minister Blair. I very much hope that this Administration will feel compelled to deal with something that many people believe has, inadvertently, caused an injustice that should be put right. If this Chamber is anything, it is surely a place for the redress of grievance.

[The Secretary of State for Defence (Dr Liam Fox)]

For the sake of clarification, my right hon. Friend the Member for North East Hampshire (Mr Arbuthnot) is correct to say that in opposition we said there would be an independent review of the evidence, and I can confirm that the Ministry of Defence is already considering the best way to undertake that. We will certainly live up to the promise that we made in opposition.

[Sir Menzies Campbell]

I am grateful to the Defence Secretary for that intervention, and for his undertaking.

I also wish to deal with the issue of Trident, to which I come as someone who has always been convinced of the utility of nuclear weapons and accepted the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence. We have moved, of course, from mutually assured destruction, through flexible response, to minimum deterrence and weapons of last resort. In fact, the United Kingdom has a good history of nuclear disarmament. When I first took an interest in these matters, as long ago as 1988, we were still talking about nuclear depth charges, nuclear artillery shells and an air-to-surface missile with a nuclear warhead, and we still had free-fall bombs. All those have been dispensed with, so the UK has a solid record on these matters. However, it is illogical not to consider that Trident should be in the full-scale defence and security review. It is a strategic system being excluded from a strategic review, which does not seem to make sense.

The proposal contained in the coalition agreement is that Trident should be examined from the point of view of value for money. I do not believe that we can consider it in that way without considering whether it is required, and whether there are reasonable alternatives. The procurement cost of Trident is approximately £20 billion, and the through-life cost £100 billion, according to a recent estimate. There are those who claim that we can save £100 billion by cancelling Trident. We can, but only by the end of what would otherwise have been the period of the through-life costs. It is not an instant hit, as some have claimed.

The case for Trident’s inclusion in the review is overwhelming. How can we assess its value for money if we do not assess the possible alternatives? The questions that should be asked in that review, anchored in the notion of value for money, are whether it is possible to engage in such a way that there could be a further life extension of the existing system; whether it is possible that we can dispense with continuous at-sea deterrence, which essentially means patrols 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 52 weeks a year; and whether it is possible that we could modify Astute submarines to carry Trident. There is already strong anecdotal evidence that work to that effect is being carried out in the Ministry of Defence.