Defence Spending

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 31st October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, in defence expenditure as a share of GDP, Poland is at 4.12%, Estonia at 3.43%, the United States of America at 3.38%, and we come ninth at 2.33%. With 2.33% we are nowhere near 2.5%, which is supposedly the target pledged by both the Labour Government and the previous Conservative Government, and NATO’s baseline is of course 2%. If we go up to 2.5%, we will be higher than Finland and Denmark but we still below Greece, the USA, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. I say again: the Labour Government have committed to reach the 2.5% target but have not specified a completion date. The Conservative Government had a date as far away as 2030. Can the Minister give us a commitment to that?

Additional funding of £5 billion was allocated post the invasion of Ukraine, with planned annual increases through 2027-28. The Ministry of Defence faces budget gaps, including a £3 billion deficit in equipment planned for 2024-25, and a £3.9 billion gap for 2025-26. Of course, in the Budget we have had this announcement of £2.9 billion. That is good news but it is nowhere near enough.

The UK’s increased defence spending aligns with NATO’s collective defence strategy, reinforcing our commitment to alliance-readiness. I am like a stuck record: in 2019, in our debate in the Chamber on the 70th anniversary of NATO, I first said that we should be spending 3% of our GDP on defence—not 2.5% but 3%. That was five years ago. Five years ago, there was no sign of Putin invading Ukraine, or of 7 October and the tragic situation in the Middle East since. Since the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, we are closer to global conflict than ever before, and then 3% will be nowhere near enough.

As a country we have provided £12.8 billion in support to Ukraine, including £7.8 billion of military support and £5 billion of non-military support. One of the proudest parts of my career was being president of the Confederation of British Industry and, within that, there is my pride at helping British industry help Ukraine, from literally days after the war started, with medical kits, ration kits, food supplies and so on.

Our support for Ukraine has been amazing. As the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, said, we cannot let Ukraine lose. But the defence of Ukraine is possible only if the United States continues its support. It has provided over $100 billion of support; if it pulls out its support, that war is over. The election in America is next week; the repercussions will be very serious indeed and we must be prepared for that.

I am a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force, and I thank the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, for leading this debate. He is an honorary air commodore, so I have to salute him.

We heard in the defence debate earlier today about the outsourcing of recruitment in our Armed Forces. It is appalling. How can you outsource the esprit de corps of our finest Armed Forces? The recruitment should be done by the Armed Forces and services themselves. Please will the Minister confirm that he will stop this?

The UK should join the Quad—the Indo-Pacific alliance between the USA, Japan, Australia and India, to make it Quad Plus. We are at the top table of the world. We have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, we are the second-biggest power in NATO, and a member of AUKUS, Five Eyes, the G7 and the G8, though sadly not the EU any more. We have the finest, most respected Armed Forces in the world, which we should all be proud of.

The “but”, as I have said before, is that, in real terms, we were spending £57 billion in 2010 and today we are spending £54 billion. Our Armed Forces are too small, at 192,760. The SDR, chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, is wonderful news, and it is crucial that we get it absolutely right.

To conclude, as I have said, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, has said that we have a

“shrinking and hollowing out of our Armed Forces”.—[Official Report, 9/10/24; col. GC 226.]

and the noble Lord, Lord West, has said that

“money is the elephant in the room”.—[Official Report, 9/10/24; col. GC 227.]

The price of freedom is not free. We need to spend at least 3% of GDP on defence.

Defence Policy: Deterrence

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 31st October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, there is direct deterrence and extended deterrence. The noble Lord, Lord Trefgarne, spoke about the credibility challenge that arises when states question the reliability of a defender’s commitment to protect allies, impacting extended deterrence.

The UK’s continuous at-sea deterrent, the CASD, has kept a nuclear-armed submarine patrolling undetected since 1969 to deter aggression. The nuclear policy in 2024 maintains a minimum credible and independent deterrent, used only in extreme self-defence and authorised solely by the Prime Minister. In 2023 the previous Conservative Government updated and prioritised an integrated multidomain deterrence strategy to counter state and transnational threats, with NATO as central. The UK’s nuclear deterrent pledged to NATO’s defence would be used only in extreme self-defence.

The Labour Government have affirmed NATO as a core to European and global security, and have committed to a new UK-EU security pact and improved defence ties with France, Germany and the Joint Expeditionary Force partners. The current Government pledge absolute support for the UK’s nuclear deterrent, including a triple-lock commitment to four nuclear submarines, continuous at-sea deterrence and future upgrades. Can the Minister confirm all this? Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey highlighted NATO’s role against Russia’s aggression and reinforced nuclear defence capabilities only in July this year.

Engaging with the moral implications of deterrence policy can lead to responsible decisions regarding the UK’s nuclear arsenal. Effective deterrence requires understanding and addresses complex motivations and perceptions. There are two strategies: deterrence by denial, which seeks to make aggression infeasible and relies on military presence, and deterrence by punishment, which threatens severe consequences but may be perceived as less credible. Historical evidence suggests that denial strategies are generally more reliable than punishment strategies, as they provide clearer signals of intent and capability to potential aggressors. The United States used deterrence effectively in Europe during the Cold War, leveraging its presence to complicate aggressors’ calculations and act as a trip-wire.

Combining deterrence threats with reassurance is crucial to avoiding provoking aggression, as seen with the US strategies towards North Korea. Success in deterrence requires clear communication of what is being deterred and the actions that will follow if ignored.

NATO has now been hugely strengthened by Finland and Sweden joining. At the Madrid summit in 2022, NATO identified Russia as the most significant threat to Euro-Atlantic security and terrorism as a direct, asymmetric threat. Twenty-three NATO allies are projected to meet or exceed spending 2% of GDP on defence, compared to only three allies in 2014. That is very good news. Collective defence is at the heart of the alliance, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which is a huge deterrent in itself.

We must continue to remember that the purpose of nuclear deterrence is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter aggression. Collaboration is key to this—the way in which we collaborate with the United States and France on nuclear deterrence, ensuring cost-effective operations. Our independent nuclear deterrence supports thousands of jobs nationwide.

I am a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the RAF. The “but” here is that the Defence Secretary has expressed concerns that our Armed Forces are unprepared for war, emphasising the need for improved deterrent capabilities against future aggression. The outsourcing of recruits has meant that only 10% of applicants successfully joined the British Armed Forces in 2023. Does the Minister agree that that must change?

I am a member of the GREAT Campaign’s advisory board. We in the UK have the strongest combination of hard and soft power, which gives us great global influence. Our strong nuclear deterrent is a huge element in this combination of hard and soft power.

Ukraine

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Friday 25th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I was president of the CBI when the Ukraine war started after Russia illegally invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. On the Monday after the war started, I went to see the ambassador, Vadym Prystaiko, at the Ukrainian embassy to offer the help of British industry. It was then that I learned from the horse’s mouth that Ukraine was going to fight. Putin thought that, in the same way as the Taliban walked into Afghanistan after our withdrawal and the Afghan army capitulated, he would be able to walk into Kyiv and take over the whole of Ukraine. As the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, said in his excellent maiden speech, this war actually started a decade ago, when Russia took over Crimea in 2014.

I come to blunder number two by Putin. The week after the invasion, I was scheduled to address the EU ambassadors at their regular meeting at the EU embassy, just across the road in Smith Square. During my speech, I looked at the ambassadors from Finland and Sweden. I asked them, “Are you now ready to join NATO?” They said, “Within five minutes”. Sure enough, Finland and Sweden have now joined NATO—two formidable defence powers, with Finland able to muster hundreds of thousands of trained troops within weeks and having a far longer border with Russia than Ukraine does, at 1,400 km. Both countries are also formidable defence manufacturing powers, as the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, said, when it comes to rifles, artillery and aircraft.

Here we are, almost three years into a war of attrition with Putin not giving up. In his excellent opening speech, the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, spoke of the 675,000 Russian casualties. Russia has lost 3,400 tanks and 8,500 armoured vehicles, while 26 vessels in the Black Sea have been either destroyed or damaged. Tragically, among Ukraine’s civilians and troops, thousands of lives have been lost. I do not whether noble Lords are aware of this but there are 80,000 amputees in Ukraine as a result of this awful war. Young lives—indeed, whole families—are being ruined.

Putin is making another blunder. He is worried about Ukraine joining NATO. At the 2024 Washington summit, allies stated that they will continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to NATO membership. Look at Australia. It is thousands of miles away but has pledged to supply 49 surplus M-1A1 Abrams tanks to the Ukrainian war effort. This could not have come at a better time, because the 47th Mechanized Brigade, the Ukrainian army’s sole user of American-made M-1s, is running out of tanks.

The noble Lord, Lord Robathan, is absolutely right. We cannot go about supporting Ukraine in a half-hearted way. We are all united. Every party in this House and every independent Peer—we are all united in defending and supporting Ukraine. However, I fear that we are doing it half-heartedly. We should be going all out. I ask the Minister: what about the planes? No one has mentioned planes. When President Zelensky came here, he said, “Give me wings”. We have given those wings. When are they going to be used? Are we going to be able to use weaponry in Russian territory?

As the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, mentioned in his opening speech, the UK has approved a military loan of £2.26 billion for Ukraine, using profits from frozen Russian assets. This is excellent news. In the summer, the leaders of the G7 countries agreed to cream off the profits from around €280 billion of Russian sovereign assets that have been frozen. This is the sort of thing that we need to be doing. Of course, Russia must pay for the 470,000 damage cases registered in Ukraine and the trillions of dollars-worth of damage that it has caused.

Everything hinges on what happens in America in a few days’ time. Are we prepared for what might happen on 5 November and who might win that election? Republican support in the US for Ukraine seems to have waned. Will it continue if we have a Trump presidency? There is also a growing relationship between Russia, Iran and North Korea. China, which continues to exploit Russia’s weakened position, is using that for its own strategic interests.

Of course, we must not forget the £457 million of humanitarian aid that we have given to Ukraine. The UN has been useless recently. It has been totally ineffective, except in helping to get the grain to flow out of Odessa. The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, mentioned India, which will be the largest economy in the world by 2060. Are we working with India to try to resolve these conflicts? India is an ally of ours. Are we working with and talking to it?

I conclude with this—I am a stuck record. In 2019, on the 70th anniversary of NATO, I said that we should spend 3% of our GDP on defence. We need to do that now more than ever. As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said in a previous debate and in his excellent speech today, we have a shrinking and hollowing-out of our Armed Forces. As the noble Lord, Lord West, said, money is the elephant in the room. I keep saying this: the price of freedom is not free. We must save Ukraine and help it to win this war.

Relations with Europe

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, referendum is the most undemocratic method. It is a snapshot of a point in time; it is finite. Democracy needs to be dynamic so that every four or five years people have the opportunity to change their minds. For the last year or so, at every opportunity, in every speech, at the opportune moment, I have boldly asked the audience—domestic, international, at universities, even schoolchildren—whether they think Brexit was a huge mistake and an act of self-harm for the United Kingdom. I am not exaggerating when I say that 99% of the hands go up—it happened just today.

I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for initiating this debate, and I congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Hodge, on her excellent maiden speech. We first met two decades ago, when we were on “Any Questions?” on the BBC together.

The Government have said clearly and unequivocally that they are interested in re-establishing our relationship in Europe since it weakened post-Brexit. This includes a new UK-EU security pact, improving bilateral relationships and the Joint Expeditionary Force—I do not think anyone has mentioned that so far.

It is a complex geopolitical environment, increasingly so, but here is a fact: in 2023, 52% of our imports and 42% of our exports were with the European Union. We got a huge trade deficit with the European Union, and these levels of exports are 11% below the pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit levels. The TCA has arrangements that are very restricted. The Government have said that they want to improve the relationship but do not want to rejoin the single market. Come on—why cannot we be bold? Why cannot we join the single market? Why cannot we then move towards the EEA Norway-type model and eventually move towards rejoining the European Union?

The war in Ukraine has led to increased co-operation between the UK and EU with regard to sanctions, intelligence sharing and military training, and with the challenges we face in defence procurement. Will the Minister admit that we have problems when it comes to defence procurement because we are no longer in the EU?

One of the most senior police officers in this country—I will not name the individual—said during the Brexit debate, “If people knew the security arrangements we have with the EU, they would vote to remain just because of that one issue alone”.

Regarding the youth mobility scheme, why can we not have a scheme where 18 to 30 year-olds can study and work in the UK and Europe? That has been proposed by the EU—we have rejected it. On the security partnership that we have, can the Government make their ambitions more concrete? The Erasmus programme is way better than Turing. Turing is one-way; Erasmus is both ways. We are losing out, our children are losing out, European children are losing out. We have heard from the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, how the music sector is losing out due to complex visa rules, cabotage restrictions, carnets, and musical instrument certificates. This is ridiculous. We do not need this. In 2018, 10,100 UK students participated in Erasmus. School trips have dropped hugely since Brexit. Some 47% of musicians report reduced EU work.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannan, spoke about cherry-picking. Well, I was president of the CBI, I sat on BusinessEurope. Do you know what its people used to say to me? “Why did you leave? We really respected you. You were different, but we envied you because you had the best of both worlds. You had your own currency; you could set your own interest rates.” Today we have the worst of both worlds.

Strategic Defence Review

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, the Government launched the strategic defence review on 16 July 2024. It is expected to report in the first half of 2025, which is an important date to note. The SDR has been described as a root and branch review of the whole of the UK defence enterprise, pointing the way to a new era for defence, but can a different approach taken this time around produce significantly better results than the other recent reviews? The worst one in history was SDSR 2010, under the leadership of Defence Minister Fox; it was hopeless, and it decimated our Armed Forces. This time, we are very lucky that the SDR is being led by my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Robertson —chair of Ditchley, where I was a governor—and General Sir Richard Barrons. He and I were fellow commissioners at Royal Hospital Chelsea together.

With the ongoing war in Europe, the conflicts in the Middle East and global and regional instability, this review is all about the values and interests of the United Kingdom, including the threats posed by terrorist groups, hybrid warfare, the instabilities intensified by climate change, the UK’s defence structure, recruitment, training, the modernisation of the defence systems and the trajectory to reach 2.5% of GDP. In 2019, in the debate on NATO’s 70th anniversary, I said that we should spend 3% of GDP on defence, and I have been like a stuck record ever since. The MoD faces funding challenges. Our budget today is £54.2 billion for defence, and I will come back to that. We know the inefficiencies in our MoD procurement processes, evidenced by the delays in programmes such as Ajax and the Type 26. They will undermine our capability to respond to emerging and unexpected threats.

We are meant to be investing more in innovative technologies such as AI and cyber, and maintaining a competitive edge, and we are also meant to prioritise effective recruitment. I plead with the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, to make sure that this review gets rids of outsourcing recruitment. How can we outsource the esprit de corps of the finest Armed Forces in the world to recruiters who are not part of the defence forces themselves? That is a stupid idea—we have to stop it right now.

Other factors are our commitment to the UK’s nuclear deterrence, reinforcing NATO as a foundation of the UK’s defence strategy and a comprehensive approach to modernisation. The terms of reference have clear parameters: a commitment to the UK nuclear deterrent, a NATO-first approach, reinforcing homeland security, continuing support for Ukraine, maintaining defence ties with the Indo-Pacific region, the Gulf and the Middle East, and delivering AUKUS. But RUSI has said that the scale and immediacy of the threats and risks to UK national security grow. We will need to consider both pressing threats in Europe and longer-term challenges—for example, from China. The conflict and instability in the Middle East could escalate into a major war. The contingencies with respect to Taiwan and the Korean peninsula; the growing risk of hybrid attacks; the challenges in the new domains of space and cyberspace; and the potential and recurrence of international terrorism—all need to be on the menu of the SDR.

This is an important point: the post-Cold War reviews have focused on threats and risks that are immediate, occupying our minds and devising headline policies right now. But then things change quickly. Look at the example of the refreshment of the integrated review and defence Command Paper—within two years of publication—which happened after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We have to bear in mind that we need long-term thinking but also to be ready to adapt.

The UK and other western Governments have struggled to find the right balance of co-operation, competition and confrontation with regard to China. Then you have the balance between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific sides of things, as well as striking the right balance between short term and long term. Space is a strong candidate; we need additional expenditure on space in the SDR. We need collaboration with India, which is doing great initiatives in space. There is the scope of the Global Combat Air Programme, given that Typhoon should serve well, perhaps for another two decades, as long it has the latest weapons and sensors. The lessons learned from Ukraine and the Middle East should inform the judgment for our wider capabilities.

I am a proud member, as an honorary group captain, of the RAF 601 Squadron. I am co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on India. It is very important that the SDR looks at how we are to work more closely with India, the fastest-growing major economy in the world. I predict that it will be the largest economy in the world by 2060. Are we doing enough joint exercises? Last year I was delighted that the RAF and the IAF had Exercise Cobra Warrior, a very good joint exercise.

My late father, General Bilimoria, was commandant of the staff college in India. There was exchange of officers, and exchanges through the RCDS and the NDC in India. We used to have an Indian Army liaison officer posted in the UK within the British Army. My father held that post as a lieutenant colonel; that post no longer exists. That trust needs to be rebuilt.

The UK should join the Quad, the Indo-Pacific alliance between the USA, Japan, Australia and India, to make it Quad Plus. We are at the top table of the world. We are a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the second-biggest power in NATO, and a member of AUKUS, Five Eyes, the G7 and the G8, though sadly not the EU any more. We have the finest, most respected Armed Forces in the world, something that we as a nation should be immensely proud of.

But here is the “but”: as has been pointed out earlier, our spending on defence was higher in real terms in 2010 at £57 billion than it is today at £54 billion. Then, in 2010, there was a golden era with China, no threat in Ukraine, and not the confrontation in the Middle East that we have today. We are spending too little. Our full-time Armed Forces number 192,760 in total, Army, Navy and Air Force combined. My father’s army, the central army in India, was 350,000. There are 29,000 reserves. This is not good enough.

My final point is that the trajectory of this review should not be assumed. We are going to have a Budget in October, and a new American President soon after. What is the new American President’s approach to Ukraine or NATO going to be? What is the central planning scenario? What if the war in Ukraine continues and we need to spend substantially more? We need to be flexible and think of that; it will be too late by the time we report in spring next year.

Finally, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said that we have a shrinking and hollowing out of our Armed Forces. The noble Lord, Lord West, said that money is the elephant in the room. The price of freedom is not free.

King’s Speech

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, in May I co-chaired a geopolitical conference for the Young Presidents’ Organization. One of our speakers, given the global uncertainty and challenges that so many noble Lords have spoken about, said: “I’m not a pessimist; I’m only an optimist who’s worried”.

The gracious Speech spoke about a “strong defence” based on NATO’s values, and our new Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Roly Walker, has just said that the UK has three years to prepare for war, and an urgent need to restore credible hard power to underwrite our deterrence. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton, said that our Armed Forces are hollowed out, and the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Peach, said that we need more reserves.

One of the biggest mistakes Putin made by invading Ukraine is that NATO is stronger than ever, with Finland and Sweden having joined. Five years ago, when we were celebrating the 70th anniversary of NATO, we had a debate in this House, and I think I was the only Peer who said that we should go not for 2.5% of GDP for defence but 3%. I think perhaps the noble Lord, Lord Sterling, said that as well. So I congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, and the noble Lord, Lord Coaker. Will they commit to 2.5% now and aim for 3% as soon as possible?

I am honorary group captain of 601 Squadron in the Royal Air Force. Will the Minister also confirm, as the noble Lord, Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton, asked, our commitment to the global combat air programme in partnership with Italy and Japan for the sixth-generation fighters that we need so urgently? It is wonderful news that we have the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, heading the defence review, helped by General Richard Barrons, whom I shared the platform with at the University of Birmingham, where I have just stepped down after 10 years of being chancellor. I also pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, who was an outstanding Foreign Office Minister for seven years. I dealt with him as a member of his India Council.

Talking about India, is it not wonderful that when David Lammy spoke at the India Global Forum just before the election, he said that if he became Foreign Secretary he would make India a priority and would be out in India immediately? And he has been in India this week, walking the talk. I think that is wonderful. We must try to conclude the free trade agreement. We started the negotiations on this free trade agreement in January 2022, when I was president of the CBI. We have had 14 months of negotiations, and here we are, two-and-a-half years later, and it is still not concluded. Can the Minister assure us that the FTA with India, which will be the biggest FTA that India, the fifth-largest economy in the world, has ever done, will be concluded? We do only £39 billion-worth of trade with India, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, and it is only our 12th-largest trading partner. We should be doing much more. We do almost £100 billion-worth with China.

I am a proud member of the 1.8 million-strong Indian diaspora over here and say humbly and with pride that it is such a successful diaspora, a living bridge with India. Is it not a shame that we had a Prime Minister of Indian origin for almost two years and it has been eight years since there has been a large prime ministerial delegation to India? I suggest to the Minister that Keir Starmer, who is a great fan of our relationship, leads a prime ministerial delegation to India as soon as possible.

When it comes to the EU, I urge the Government to not just reset our relationship. Quite frankly, we need to rejoin the single market with free movement of goods, services and people as soon as possible, and, as the noble Baroness, Lady Suttie, said, we need to rejoin Erasmus. Turing is nowhere near good enough; it is the Erasmus scheme that is both ways.

The Labour manifesto spoke about strengthening diplomacy and modernising international development. Now that we have a new Government, surely we should admit that merging the FCO and DfID was a huge mistake and completely the wrong thing to do. They are both excellent departments in their own right and should be departments in their own right and DfID should have 0.7% of GDP for aid. Will the Government commit to that?

I conclude with this. The UK is at the top table of the world—except the EU. We are in the P5 of the UN, the G7, the G20, NATO, AUKUS, Five Eyes and the Commonwealth—the noble Lord, Lord Swire, spoke about the potential there—yet we are not a member of Quad, which is India, America, Japan and Australia. We should join Quad and make it Quad-plus. We have the strongest combination of hard and soft power in the world. Our defence is too small, but our 24-hours a day, 365 days a year nuclear deterrent is very powerful. We are still a top-10 manufacturer in the world. I chair the manufacturing commission and am a proud manufacturer. In finance, we are top in the world. As for our soft power, wow—our universities are the best in the world, along with America. Our royal family is phenomenal, led by His Majesty the King. The BBC is watched and listened to by 500 million people around the world and our Premier League football teams have tremendous soft power. So I am confident that, with the combination of soft power and hard power we have, if the Government listen to this amazing debate—the House of Lords at its best—we will be able to deal with this uncertain and challenging world.

AUKUS

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, AUKUS is an acronym for a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. There are two pillars, with defence capabilities, and in the first a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia, supported by the UK and the USA. The second pillar is co-operation in advanced capability, including AI.

As a trustee of Policy Exchange, I can say that we coined the term “Indo-Pacific”, as opposed to “Asia-Pacific”, as it used to be referred to. With the UK’s renewed policy focus in the Indo-Pacific, this is very timely. We have just joined the CPTPP. Should we join Quad, with India, the USA, Japan and Australia? The UK joining would make it Quad Plus, and we would circle the world. With our membership of NATO and Five Eyes, our security would be enhanced. However, would the Minister not agree—I am like a stuck record—that we should be spending 3% of GDP on defence? As the noble Lord, Lord Rogan, said, our Armed Forces, the Army, Navy and Air Force, are too small in numbers of people and short of equipment—and I say that as a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force.

The Prime Minister assured us last March that an additional £5 billion would be provided by the MoD for the AUKUS programme and sustained funding would be provided. The Government have also said that this would create thousands of jobs here in the UK and, of course, in Australia.

Gideon Rachman wrote an excellent article in the FT just three days ago, where he said:

“China has repeatedly attacked Aukus as dangerous and confrontational. Shortly after it was launched, Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister at the time, gleefully lampooned the ‘raucous squawkus from the anti-Aukus caucus’”.


Gideon Rachman concluded his article by saying:

“The pact is ultimately a statement of resolve and long-term commitment. It is based on a shared perception of the growing strategic threat from China and Russia as they work together to overturn the current international order. That perception seems more pressing and valid than ever”.


I thank the noble Lord, Lord Risby, for initiating this debate and raising awareness of AUKUS, which people need to know more about. I love the way he referred to it as a technology-accelerator agreement. There is huge potential in enhancing our security and powering ahead with our innovation and research and development capabilities—all things at which this country has always been absolutely brilliant.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, I too am grateful to my noble friend Lord Risby for initiating this debate and to all noble Lords for their constructive and extremely thoughtful contributions. It is fair to say that I have never been asked more questions in such a short period, so I will be doing quite a lot of writing. However, I hope to pick them all up either now or through answering some of the more specific ones.

It is indeed two and a half years since we launched the AUKUS defence and security partnership to bolster global security alongside our equal American and Australian allies. Since then, the challenges to address have become more acute. Putin has brought war to Europe, tensions have heightened in the Indo-Pacific, and terrorism and violence have been unleashed in the Middle East. Military coups have toppled Governments across the Sahel and the Houthis are holding global trade hostage in the Red Sea. Each of these global security setbacks magnifies the need to advance our military capabilities through partnerships such as AUKUS. This is about much more than building the next generation of submarines and other capabilities. It is also about establishing a more sustainable industrial base and developing the skills for the future. With that in mind, I will provide an update on the progress we have made on the various AUKUS workstreams and I will try to address the questions raised by the noble Lords.

First, AUKUS pillar 1 is our commitment to help Australia develop a conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine capability. Last March, AUKUS leaders announced that this new platform would be based on designs for the UK’s next-generation submarine that will replace our current Astute class. They will incorporate cutting-edge US technologies and will be the largest, most advanced and most powerful attack submarines ever operated by the Royal Navy. They will enhance our capability to operate in the north Atlantic and will further our objectives around the world. They will be built in Australia and the UK and will enter service with the Royal Navy in the late 2030s, and with the Royal Australian Navy in the late 2040s. This phased delivery will enable us to work together to build up the facilities, skills and experience needed for all partners to operate the vessels both safely and securely.

I was delighted to see the Australian high commissioner and his deputy earlier this week. We had a very positive, enthusiastic conversation about precisely this point on skills, training and experience. The opportunity of working ever more closely together on this critical task, developing joint skills and sustainable employment for decades to come across all three nations should be rightly celebrated, and that work is well under way.

The Government have committed an additional £5 billion up to 2025 to modernise the UK’s nuclear enterprise and fund the next phase of the AUKUS submarine programme. It is obviously very difficult, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne, rightly knows, to budget very accurately when we are talking about 2030, which is years ahead. However, the determination is there to ensure that the procurement process is both accurate and timely.

AUKUS partners BAE, Babcock and Rolls-Royce have already been awarded contracts worth £4 billion to procure long-lead components for the submarines. This will support thousands of highly skilled jobs in the UK, particularly in Barrow, where the UK’s submarines will be constructed, and at the Rolls-Royce Raynesway site in Derby, which will double in size to manufacture all the reactors for the UK and Australian subs, creating around 1,100 new jobs. We have also accelerated nuclear co-operation and training between AUKUS partners, offering enhanced opportunities for Australian sailors to train in the UK and the US, including on non-nuclear submarines, and we have committed to more planned visits to the US and nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

On pillar 2, although the media spotlight has shone brightest on our submarine collaborations under pillar 1, AUKUS has always been about a much broader range of defence and industrial collaboration under pillar 2. From better information and technology sharing to new cutting-edge joint capabilities and more seamless interoperability, as well as strengthening the resilience of our defence sectors, these objectives were centre stage at the AUKUS defence ministerial meeting in December, where Ministers announced new pillar 2 capability programmes on AI, autonomous systems, threat detection, undersea warfare, quantum technologies and cybersecurity, as well as a separate deep space advanced radar programme and a programme of industrial engagement. We are making steady progress with many of these capabilities and, wherever possible, we will continue to be transparent and provide updates as we reach important milestones or embark on new endeavours.

Our ambition to deliver nuclear-powered submarines for Australia will remain trilateral. However, as our work progresses on AUKUS advanced capabilities—pillar 2—and other critical defence and security capabilities, we are open to engaging with allies and close partners. Defence Ministers also announced new future combined exercises, including a joint exercise in the autumn of 2024 off the east coast of Australia to test new equipment to protect critical underwater infrastructure, including autonomous systems. Joint exercises such as this improve our ability to work together and enhance the development of new capabilities.

My noble friend Lord Risby is absolutely right to raise the important function of the AUKUS working groups, which continue to progress the ambition set out in December by Defence Ministers. I am also grateful to him for highlighting the pivotal role that Barrow will play as a home of UK submarine-building. The Government have committed £5 million to support the long-term delivery board for Barrow and are working in close co-operation with Westmorland and Furness Council and BAE Systems to develop that community. With the infrastructure to support this ambition, it should be a thriving place for people to work and live. That includes local transportation and other community projects.

Critical to the success of AUKUS and the strength of the partnership is our ability to forge deeper and more seamless ties between our nations right across the defence sector, so we were delighted that Congress recently passed legislation to establish an AUKUS nations exemption to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations—ITAR—for the UK and Australia. I understand some of the concerns about the small print of this, but the principle having been taken is a very significant step in the right direction.

Closer collaboration and exchanges between our businesses and experts will drive innovation, enable us to make the most of emerging technologies and provide an opportunity for UK defence companies to turbocharge exports. To further grease the wheels of innovation and trade, we have established the advanced capabilities industry forum and will shortly publish the first AUKUS innovation challenge, deepening those crucial links between our three systems to ensure we support the development of skills fit for the future workforce.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

I thank the Minister for giving way. He just mentioned the AUKUS advanced capabilities industry forum and collaboration with trade and industry. That is absolutely spot on, but no one mentions working with universities. Is there not huge potential for the AUKUS programme, in the USA, Australia and here in the UK, to work with our world-class universities to turbocharge this programme? I am chancellor of the University of Birmingham, which last week won a Queen’s Anniversary Prize at Buckingham Palace for its work with Rolls-Royce on aero-engines. It is so powerful. Should we not be promoting this more?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I could not agree more. Rolls-Royce is in the process of doubling its graduate intake between 2022 and 2025, and taking on an enormous number of apprentices over the next 10 years to ensure that we build up this capability of proper, genuine, well-paid and highly skilled jobs for life—exactly the sort of thing that the noble Lord refers to.

Alongside our AUKUS partners, we have also committed to co-operate on the deep space advanced radar capability programme. Although DARC is not part of AUKUS as a result of the particular nature of regulatory requirements covering space-related technologies, it is a clear benefit from the closer trilateral working relationship that we have forged through our AUKUS partnership. That shows the breadth of thinking that AUKUS is projecting.

A couple of noble Lords raised our non-proliferation obligations. As part of the AUKUS programme, we have engaged extensively with the International Atomic Energy Agency, as noble Lords would expect. The UK, the US and Australia are fully committed to an approach that protects classified information and strengthens the global regime.

On the question of other strategic allies in the Indo-Pacific, such as Canada, Japan or indeed South Korea, which was mentioned, we already enjoy close defence relationships.

On exchanges, we currently have three Australian officers embedded in the Royal Navy submarine officer nuclear training pipeline and two Royal Australian Navy personnel embedded in the Submarine Delivery Agency in the Defence Nuclear Organisation. An advanced verification team formed of experts from all three partner countries visited Pearl Harbour and Faslane last year to build our understanding of the maintenance and industrial skills required to maintain nuclear submarines.

I shall just go through some of the specific questions. The noble Lord, Lord Browne, asked about costs and contingencies. In addition to the £3 billion extra provided to our Defence Nuclear Organisation, I confirm that there will be sustained funding to support the AUKUS programme over the next decade. It will be a process of iteration but the commitment is absolutely there.

Can we really build submarines faster than ever before? We have a commitment from our industrial partners and confidence in that. Rolls-Royce is producing the reactors and we have invested billions of pounds in both Barrow and Derby. As I said, we have committed to more than 1,000 new jobs already.

It is better that I write to the noble Lord, Lord Browne, about our assessment of uncrewed submarines.

At this time, it is not for me to comment on President Trump and the presidential candidates’ views. At the moment, all three parties are confident of the longevity of the tripartite agreement.

On the question of jobs in Belfast, there is indeed a very proud tradition and industrial past of shipbuilding in Northern Ireland and across the UK. I take the point: Barrow-in-Furness has the licence and capability to build the submarines, but I am certain that there will be a lot of SME opportunity that includes Northern Ireland. In fact, we will ensure that it does.

In closing, I express my gratitude once again to my noble friend Lord Risby for initiating this important debate on AUKUS. Our national defences have always been dependent on the strength of our resolve, the quality of our people and capabilities, and the power of our alliances. In our more dangerous world, the AUKUS partnership is strengthening all three of these elements. Our adversaries may be aligning but, through AUKUS, the UK, the US and Australia have become ever more connected, prepared and lethal. AUKUS is a partnership building bridges across the Atlantic and the Pacific. It is a partnership for the future that, I hope, will keep us safe for generations to come.

Armed Forces

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 7th September 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, it is a privilege to follow the noble and gallant Lord. The week before last, I was in India speaking at the B20 in Delhi. Our Prime Minister leaves today for the G20 in Delhi. I hope we will soon have a free trade agreement signed between the UK and India.

I thank the noble Lord, Lord Soames, for leading this important debate, which is extremely timely. The Government’s Defence’s Response to a More Contested and Volatile World, published in July this year, says very clearly, right upfront in the ministerial foreword, that:

“We are proud of the role the UK is playing in supporting Ukraine in this fight. They are not only defending the international rules-based system on our behalf, but in many ways they are proving the way for warfare in the 2020s – whole of nation, internationally partnered, innovative, digitised and operating with tempo, precision and range. In turn, we are providing Ukraine with equipment, training and political support. We have galvanised European and international, governmental and industrial partners to do likewise. We are campaigning globally”.


Defence’s purpose is to protect the nation, help it to prosper, shape the international environment, deter, defend and compete across all domains, address vulnerability of civilians and generate strategic advantage. Yet it is our minimum credible independent nuclear deterrent which is assigned to the defence of NATO that works every single hour of every day to guarantee our security and that of our NATO allies.

However, the total number of active duty personnel is under 150,000, which is smaller than the US Marine Corps. Many would argue that the weakness of the Government’s Command Paper is that it reverses ends and means. Change is desperately needed, given the challenges from Russia and China, and our budget is far too small. Our Royal Navy has fewer than 30,000 and the Army is getting down to 72,000. The Royal Air Force—I am proud to be an honorary group captain in 601 Squadron—is fewer than 30,000. The total is just 133,000.

There is a delay with the F35 Lightning II fighter jets—there should be 48 of them. Can the Minister tell us when we will reach that number? We will now have fewer than 150 tanks. What is great news is that we are embarking on joint exercises. The Royal Air Force joined five other nations in the UK’s biggest aerial exercise, with 70 aircraft flown by six nations in March this year. I was delighted that it was called Exercise Cobra Warrior.

In 2019—I am like a stuck record—in the debate on the 70th anniversary of NATO I called for our expenditure to go up to 3%. I shall continue being a stuck record. AUKUS has been a superb security pact between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom for the Indo-Pacific region. Sir Stephen Lovegrove has said that the submarine element of the partnership was

“perhaps the most significant capability collaboration anywhere in the world in the past six decades”.

Does the Minister not think that the UK should join the Quad—the USA, Japan, Australia and India? That would be a wonderful global partnership.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, before leaving, said that Ukraine has, tragically, become a “battle lab” and that lessons learned would inform the future of Britain’s Armed Forces—in particular, drone defence and artillery. He pointed out that, at the end of the Second World War, 35% of the Army was artillery and that it is now only 8%. Are we learning those lessons?

In conclusion, £45.9 billion spending on defence is not enough. Yes, we may be spending the minimum 2% NATO requirement but, actually, given all the threats that there are in the world, the alliances are crucial, and NATO is crucial. Let us not go further than the Royal Gallery and the battle of Waterloo, and that wonderful painting. Without Marshal Blücher arriving, the Duke of Wellington would not have won the Battle of Waterloo. We need the alliances, we respect NATO and we are proud to be part of NATO.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Richards, mentioned that the UK was a medium-sized economy. Much as I respect him, I put it to your Lordships that we are not a superpower. There are only two superpowers: the United States and China; and one more emerging, India, which I predict by 2060 will be the largest economy in the world. But we are still the sixth-largest economy in the world and at the top table of the world, whether it is the G7 or the G20. We are the second-largest power in NATO. Most importantly, we have the strongest elements of soft power, whether it is the Royal Family, our Premier League football, the BBC or our universities. But soft power without hard power is absolutely useless. We need to support and invest in our Armed Forces and enforce that precious covenant between the public and the Armed Forces and we must never take them for granted. We must spend a minimum of 3% of GDP right now.

Ukraine

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 9th February 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, yesterday my Cambridge University contemporary and friend Brigadier Justin Maciejewski, the current director of the National Army Museum located next to the Royal Hospital Chelsea, where I was proud to be a commissioner for six years, wrote an editorial. It was headed, “No one wants WW3 but lesson from history is clear: If we want peace, prepare to FIGHT for it”. Justin Maciejewski started his powerful editorial by saying:

“BRITAIN is facing a historic crisis that echoes the build-up to the Second World War.”


I sound like a stuck record, but back in 2019, in the debate in this House marking the 70th anniversary of NATO, I said—before there was any sign of the war in Ukraine—that we should increase our defence spending from the NATO minimum of 2% to 3%. I have repeated this suggestion several times since over the past four years. I also remember very clearly the SDSR in 2010 which decimated our Armed Forces, removing our maritime capability, destroying our Nimrods, removing aircraft carrier capability for years and ultimately cutting the size of our Armed Forces. According to recent reports, our Armed Forces are due to shrink to 73,000—smaller than the number during the Napoleonic Wars over 200 years ago.

I hear of pilots of the Royal Air Force and Navy who have been recruited but are waiting for over two years to even begin their pilot training. I have spoken to one of these individuals. Could the Minister explain why this is happening and how we can get these pilots trained straightaway? It is a waste of young talent. There needs to be an urgency about this.

Yesterday, as the noble Lord, Lord Soames, said in his outstanding maiden speech, President Zelensky gave an inspirational speech in Westminster Hall. Zelensky said simply that they need aircraft. We were meant to receive 135 F35 Lightnings, the best fighter aircraft in the world, but we have only 48. We need these aircraft more than ever to give us cutting-edge air superiority on a global scale. Could the Minister confirm when we are going to be taking full delivery of these aircraft?

This reminds me of the excellent debate led by the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, exactly two weeks ago. In that debate, I asked the Minister, the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, specifically whether we should give aircraft to Ukraine. If I am not mistaken, I was the only Peer to ask that question. I did not receive an answer and I ask the question again to the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, particularly given President Zelensky’s direct request yesterday. Will we, along with our NATO allies, be able to provide aircraft to Ukraine? Additionally, I said, as did others, including the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, that “size matters”. Boots on the ground and critical mass matter. This concept was exemplified greatly during the first Gulf War, when the British Army had over 165,000 full-time troops. At that very time, my late father Lieutenant General Faridoon Bilimoria was commanding the central Indian army, with a total of 350,000 troops under his command.

We must remember that the number one priority of any Government is the security of their citizens. We are sleepwalking into a potential nightmare. The British Army has overall been undefeated for centuries. We have to wake up before it is too late and this changes. When President Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, we did nothing. When he attacked Ukraine on 24 February 2022, he expected Ukraine to capitulate and give up, but the Ukrainian people and army did not.

When I was president of the CBI, I reached out to the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, who has become a very good friend, the weekend after the war started. The following Monday, 28 February, at Ambassador Prystaiko’s request I visited him at the Ukrainian embassy. I was introduced to him well before the war by the noble Baroness, Lady Meyer, with a view to increasing UK-Ukraine trade. At the Ukrainian embassy in Holland Park on that Monday, I learned that Ukraine was not going to give up and was going to fight.

I am proud to say that I managed to rally our CBI members to help. The day after that I went back to the embassy. Sitting side by side with the ambassador in his office with leaders and captains of industry, we reached out for help. That call was immediately heeded. Millions of ration packs for the troops in Ukraine, as well as medical kits and food packages, were sent. Funds were raised over the following months, and all this contributed to the fact that Britain in the past year has been one of the top three humanitarian aid supporters of Ukraine and I am so proud to have been personally, alongside the CBI, part of that support. As a result of this war, NATO is stronger than ever.

On 9 March last year, I was invited by the then EU ambassador to the United Kingdom, João Vale de Almeida, to address the ambassadors of the 27 EU member countries at the EU embassy in Smith Square, round the corner from here. I asked the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden, “Are you now going to join NATO?”, and they both replied, “We are ready to join in five minutes”. President Putin has shot himself in the foot: not only is NATO more united than ever before but it will now be enlarged with two serious and formidable military powers. Those two countries have high-tech and highly advanced manufacturing capabilities and state-of-the-art weaponry, from the Saab Gripen fighters to sophisticated artillery. We should not forget that Finland, with its 1,340-kilometre border with Russia, has the ability to muster several hundred thousand troops from its reserves within weeks.

In the last year, we have all witnessed the amazing bravery of the Ukrainian people and its armed forces. With the CBI, I helped to organise the incredibly moving fundraising event, “Brave Ukraine”, at the Tate Modern in London on 5 May last year, where President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed us live from Ukraine. I stood next to Boris Johnson, our then Prime Minister, who was at the forefront of leading the global efforts. The exhibition displayed, for all to see, the true bravery of the people of Ukraine, which was, and still is, utterly inspirational. It is with real pride that we can say that the UK was one of the first nations to provide initial support and vital weaponry, which has now escalated to other countries joining in the efforts and providing hundreds of tanks.

There has been talk, time and again, of not provoking Russia and of worrying about Russia using nuclear weapons or chemical warfare. Surely, the time has come when enough is enough; it is coming up to one year since this wretched war started. We have had the worst global crisis since the Second World War with the Covid pandemic from 2020 to 2022, two years which brought the world to a standstill, completely decimating economies, including our own, which shrank by almost 10% in a year, requiring us to spend £400 billion to save our economy, businesses and jobs. Instead of the last year being a time of recovery from the pandemic, it has been an extension, if not a complete exacerbation, of the crisis, as the Ukraine war has led to global inflation, energy supply issues and supply chain problems. Most tragically, it has created a food shortage, with the notable prediction by David Beasley, the director of the World Food Programme, that 47 million people in developing nations were potentially at threat of starvation if the port of Odessa was not unblocked, as they were reliant on the grain from the food basket of the world, Ukraine.

In May 2022, Ambassador Prystaiko alerted me to the impending food crisis as a result of the port of Odessa being blocked, due to the war. Following up the next day, and using every opportunity I could, I brought it up in Parliament and I ensured that I brought it up face-to-face with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in Berlin, in my capacity as a member of the B7, before Germany presided over the G7. It was such a relief that, thankfully, with the help of the UN and our NATO ally Turkey, Russia finally agreed to the port of Odessa being opened and the grain is now flowing again. Can the Minister update us on whether the grain is genuinely flowing?

As has been said by many noble Lords in this excellent debate, it is clear that Ukraine is fighting not only for its own freedom but for the freedom of us all. All our freedoms are at stake here. As one of my Harvard Business School professors outlined to me in September last year, one solution to end this conflict is a stalemate, in the sense that an effective line of control could exist, with Russia occupying some Ukrainian territory and Ukraine not officially acceding to it—a stand-off with non-stop skirmishes in the years ahead. That type of situation exists in many parts of the world, as we speak. But the best and only solution all round is to help Ukraine win the war, as it would send a strong signal to other countries that the free world will not accept aggression of this kind, will unite and will help the victim not just to survive but, ultimately, to win the war. We have the ability to do that without putting our troops on the ground, as the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be fully capable and utterly courageous, if we just give them the right means to aid their efforts. Why are we stopping now? Why are we hesitating? We should be giving them the fighter jets and missiles they are asking for and the artillery and tanks they need—everything possible to enable them to push the Russians out of Ukrainian territory and out of Crimea. Why are we now holding back? What are we scared of?

If President Putin dares to use nuclear weapons for chemical warfare, will the Minister please assure us that this act will not just be a red line, but a trigger to implement the full force of NATO? This will then be a lesson to other countries, including China, to not even dare to contemplate attacking Taiwan.

Almost exactly a year ago, on 8 March 2022, we had a historic moment in Parliament when President Zelensky addressed both Houses of Parliament in the House of Commons. He ended his speech by quoting Shakespeare. He said:

“The question for us now is, “To be, or not to be”. This Shakespearean question could have been asked over the past 13 days, but I can now give you a definitive answer: it is definitely, “To be”. I remind you of the words that the United Kingdom has already heard because they are important again. We will not give up, and we will not lose.”


He has stuck to those words almost a year later.

Fast forward to another absolutely historic and valiant speech by President Zelensky that we witnessed yesterday, which he delivered to all of us in Westminster Hall, amazingly, in person. He mentioned that he was about to meet King Charles later. As the noble Lord, Lord McDonald, has quoted, President Zelensky said:

“The King is an air force pilot and in Ukraine today, every air force pilot is a king”.


He then presented Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle with a Ukrainian ace fighter pilot’s helmet—a lieutenant-colonel’s helmet—with the compelling words inscribed on it:

“We have freedom, give us the wings to protect it”.


We must do this at once. Let us give them the wings to protect their freedom. What are we waiting for? This particular point in President Zelensky’s speech highlighted the sheer importance and incredible work of air force pilots in defending a nation. I pay tribute to the noble and gallant Lords, Lord Craig and Lord Stirrup. It means so much to me as a proud honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force.

In his speech yesterday in Westminster Hall, President Zelensky spoke more than once about evil and how evil will crumble. This reminded me of when I was privileged to speak at the memorial service for Archbishop Desmond Tutu laid on by the South African High Commission. I quote Archbishop Desmond Tutu in 1988 addressing the South African Government:

“You have already lost. Let us say so nicely, you have already lost. We are inviting you to come and join the winning side. Your cause is unjust. You are defending what is fundamentally indefensible because it is evil. It is evil without question. It is immoral. It is immoral without question … Therefore, you will bite the dust! And you will bite the dust comprehensively.”


To conclude, looking ahead, the world order has two superpowers that exist right now: the United States of America and China. A third very important and emerging superpower is India, to which the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, referred. As the noble Lord said, India this year has the presidency of the G20. Russia is not even a top-10 economy in the world. India today is the fifth largest economy in the world; we are the sixth largest. Within 25 years, India is predicted to be the second largest economy in the world with a GDP of $32 trillion.

Today, the Russian army has shown itself to be weak and ineffective. The Indian army is not only one of the largest armies in the world, but a highly disciplined and formidable fighting force, with capabilities growing in leaps and bounds. Our Armed Forces in the UK may be small in number, but we should remember that we have the finest, most respected Armed Forces in the world with our SAS, SBS, Royal Marines, and, of course, our precious Gurkhas.

Our role and aim in Britain has always been, and still is today—even with less than 1% of the world’s population—to remain a global power at the top table of the world and to be closely allied with countries such as India and the United States of America. I suggested a year ago that the UK should join the Quad, along with USA, Japan, Australia and India, thus squaring and circling the world. Does the Minister agree?

When the war in Ukraine ends, it will bring peace and prosperity, not only to Ukraine, but to the whole world. In helping Ukraine, we need not only to continue our efforts regarding the weaponry we have already supplied, but also to up our game immediately. In the words of the Duke of Edinburgh’s motto: “Fortune favours the bold”. Let us be bold right now. We need more troops and to spend more on our defence. I will finish where I started by quoting Brigadier Justin Maciejewski from his editorial yesterday:

“Armies need might and mass to win. That means good weapons, good people and enough of them to be a credible deterrent. Without an effective defence, everything that you treasure is threatened. Defeat in war means you lose everything: no health, no pensions, no education, no safety”.


He ends by saying:

“We need to be prepared, and preparation has a price”.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Minister of State, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon) (Con)]

My Lords, I thank all noble Lords for yet another great example of your Lordships’ House at its best. Undoubtedly, the issue of unanimity and being at one resonates.

I agree with the contributions from all Front Benches paying tribute to my noble friend Lady Goldie for opening the debate; her usual style, aplomb and detail set the tone for our debate. I am grateful to the noble Lords, Lord Collins and Lord Purvis—contemporaries of mine, if I can put it that way, when it comes to issues of foreign affairs—for their strong support, and we have seen, from the contributions of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, the strong alignment between us. It is important that, when the world looks at the UK on issues such as standing up for the rights of a sovereign nation, we speak with one voice.

I fully accept the point that that is not without challenge to the Government of the day. I echo the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that it is right that we will have people who challenge, whether outside these Chambers, through our press, our people, our opinion-formers, agencies and NGOs about our Government or our country doing more, or indeed within this Chamber. I associate myself with the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, about the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours. On this particular issue, if we look at the contributions made over the last year then we can perhaps see where the noble Lord is coming from, but it is right that in a free and open democracy all views are heard.

In thanking all noble Lords, I first and foremost wish to thank my noble friend Lord Soames. It is often said that the contributions in maiden speeches should be measured and informed, hopefully, delivered with expertise, a nice sprinkling of wit and a dose of wisdom. My noble friend’s contribution reflected exactly those qualities and he brings a remarkable insight and expertise. It is right, on the day after the President of Ukraine visited the United Kingdom, not only that we are having this debate but that it marks the occasion of my noble friend’s maiden speech. I look forward to working with him closely not just on Ukraine issues but across the foreign policy and defence agenda. I thank him for his continued support in this regard.

I also associate myself totally with my noble friend’s remarks about the former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. While changes have happened, I have been one of those Ministers who have had the occasion to be around a while. I worked directly with the former Prime Minister when he was Foreign Secretary. Various issues come to mind, but one thing was very notable back in 2018—my noble friend Lord Hannan made this point: it should not be news that Russia targets countries. When we had the CHOGM in London in 2018, I remember that the Salisbury incident happened between the agreement of the communiqué and the meeting itself. Theresa May was Prime Minister and we were given quite straight directions that we needed to include language on Salisbury in the communiqué that came out of CHOGM. I saw Boris Johnson at his best then; I worked closely with him and directly with key Foreign Ministers from across countries to ensure that the language could be amended. Anyone who has worked over many years on different communiqués knows that is a task and a half. To get a number of countries to agree at that time when they were sitting on the fence, or perhaps not in agreement because of their association and relationships with Russia, was a tall order but we achieved it in 48 hours. I fully accept the points made about the principles and importance of diplomacy, which I will come on to.

In underlining my strong support, I also align myself with my noble friend Lord Soames’s remarks about our Secretary of State for Defence. Given the challenges that were put down, he has also been at the forefront of ensuring that we responded with the necessary agility. Across the different Foreign Secretaries I have worked with at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, we have done that with the requirements of Ukraine at the forefront. Those who perhaps still question and challenge whether Ukraine recognises that need do nothing more than listen to President Zelensky’s incredible and memorable speech yesterday in Westminster Hall.

The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Southwell and Nottingham asked, “Where does this go? What is the United Kingdom’s position?”. I am sure that all noble Lords who spoke from the Front Benches would be able to align themselves with it. We have reaffirmed our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity within its recognised borders, as well as its right to pursue its own security arrangements. Our military support to Ukraine is enduring and we will continue to support it across all three domains, be that land, sea or air.

I know that the noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, had to leave—I thank him for advance notice of that —but he mentioned, as the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, did, that ultimately agreements and political settlements will be reached in this respect. We are not in that position at this time but we saw how, right from the start, President Zelensky put down his 10 principles for peace. We have been working with key partners and directly with Ukraine, and we in the United Kingdom align ourselves with it totally. Whatever agreement is ultimately reached must be reached with our strong support, but led and agreed by Ukraine.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, talked about the start of the conflict nine years ago. It is sometimes reflected that had the international community reacted differently in 2014 to first the invasion and then the annexation of Crimea, things would be different. But as the noble Lord, Lord Wallace of Saltaire, pointed out, Russia’s intentions were clear prior to that, as we have seen through its continued attacks on the sovereignty of other nations, including what we saw in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia prior to the attack on Ukraine. Therefore, we must remain resolute and absolutely committed to ensuring that Ukraine prevails.

My noble friend Lord Marlesford talked of the need to ensure that our war is not with the Russian people. It is not, but we have seen from Mr Putin a suppression of his own communities and people right from the start. The continued arrests and detention of people such as Mr Navalny underline what he thinks of his own people. When we saw early protests in cities across Russia, simple things such as young girls and women appearing with flowers in city squares were shut down. This is a man who does that to his own people. Our fight is not with the Russian people. Our argument is not with the Russian people. We stand for the very freedoms and democracy that I am sure all Russians desire.

My noble friend Lord Hannan and others, including the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, in his very insightful contribution, said that Ukraine must win and cannot be destroyed. My noble friend Lord Hannan said that Russian aggression cannot be rewarded. I think we all stand by that.

In paying tribute to my noble friend Lady Meyer for her early engagement with the Ukrainians, I recall on a personal note—which also speaks to the point that the noble Lord, Lord Wallace, made—that we have worked with Ukraine over a number of years. It may surprise noble Lords that my first visit to Kyiv was as Local Government Minister. I was asked to visit Ukraine to ask about how local government structures could work within the emerging government. It seems like a long time ago. I returned in 2019 to represent Her Majesty’s Government, as it was then, during the inauguration of a certain President Zelensky. Only about three or four countries were represented at ministerial level. In a few short years, things have changed.

The noble Lord, Lord Wallace, talked about changes in systems and issues of corruption. It could be argued that President Zelensky’s election reflected the fact that people within Ukraine wanted change. It is important that we stand by Ukraine at its time of need on defence, humanitarian and reconstruction requirements, but we are also in there for the long term in ensuring that Ukraine can rebuild itself and its governance structures.

Several noble Lords, including my noble friend Lord Shinkwin, asked, “How long is long term?”. The enduring reflection I can make is that our participation in alliances such as NATO indicate our strong long-term commitment, irrespective of which Government of what colour is in control of the United Kingdom. It is important that we stand by our obligations.

We have stood by Ukraine, and President Zelensky indicated that with his strong words yesterday. We pay tribute to all Ukrainians for their courage, determination and ingenuity and to the unbreakable friendship and ties between our two countries. As we all heard, President Zelensky thanked the United Kingdom for standing with Ukraine from day one. He also thanked us for our grit and international leadership in this respect. It is important that we are unrelenting in our continued support for Ukraine.

I welcome the wise words and the contribution of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, who spoke with great insight and expertise. He reminded us that the world has changed from the time of the Second World War and the international institutions that were created. We live in a very different world. War is not just, as we see unfolding in Ukraine, traditional and conventional battlefield wars of tanks and air. We also see a growing area of cyber challenge. We need to be firmly aligned and work with our partners to ensure that responding to the cyber challenges posed by Russia and other state actors is part and parcel of ensuring our defence.

As we heard from my noble friend Lady Goldie earlier, Ukraine’s heroic armed forces have already recaptured thousands of square miles from the Russians, driving them out from more than half the territory they grabbed last year. As many noble Lords pointed out, Russia did not expect that that would continue. The noble Lord, Lord McDonald, with whom I have had the pleasure of working on occasion over a number of years, rightly highlighted that Mr Putin got it wrong. He felt that this was a short intervention and that the world, perhaps based on history, would not stand by Ukraine, but he was proved wrong. Our continued resilience and support for Ukraine at this crucial juncture is extremely important. I share totally the views expressed by the noble Lords, Lord Purvis and Lord Collins: that those responsible for war crimes and atrocities should also be held accountable, a point made by several other noble Lords.

The noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, and my noble friend Lord Risby highlighted the appalling and abhorrent activities of the Russian forces. Ukrainian children in their thousands are being taken from their families and sent to orphanages in Russia. That is pure abduction of young children, and an attempt to terrify a whole population and the next generation of Ukrainians. Therefore, we condemn Russian atrocities, including the alleged abductions and deportations of innocent Ukrainians, and will hold Russia to account. On 16 June, the UK announced a new wave of sanctions, including against the Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner on that issue. I look forward to engaging directly with noble Lords on the important issue of accountability, which I will discuss in a moment, particularly in the areas for which I am responsible in government, such as crimes of sexual violence in conflict. Tragically, that abhorrent crime is again surfacing very clearly in Ukraine.

I turn now to military support. I assure my noble friend Lord Soames, with whom I have been delighted to work over a number of years, that the strong co-operation between the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office is very clear. He rightly pointed out that Russia’s threat does not end in Ukraine. Our commitments through NATO, as I have seen myself during visits to places such as Estonia, demonstrate the strong capabilities of our military. They need to continue, and we are committed to that.

My noble friend Lady Goldie and I visited the Balkans, where we saw the rising tide of nationalism, fuelled by Russian support and the likes Mr Dodik, who has also been sanctioned by the United Kingdom Government. It was very clear to both of us, as we saw in Bosnia-Herzegovina, especially in the Republika Srpska entity, that that nationalist element was surfacing again in a way that no one wants to see, and which ripped that country apart previously. So, as was pointed out very ably by my noble friend Lord Hannan and the noble Lord, Lord Wallace, we must be very mindful that this is not just about Ukraine but other countries as well.

I turn now to how we will ensure we are providing enough military support. Last month, my right honourable friend the Defence Secretary announced our most significant military support package to date. Ukraine urgently needs heavier, more modern equipment to expedite success. As many noble Lords alluded to, this package includes fourteen Challenger 2 tanks, a training package and artillery, which will further strengthen Ukraine’s capabilities. It means that, importantly, our Ukrainian friends can go from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. Our friends in NATO—the United States, France, Canada, Poland and Germany, among others—are following our lead and sending main battle tanks to Ukraine, which is a very important development. We hope that this combined effort will encourage further military support from other partners.

Yesterday, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister announced plans to expand training for the armed forces of Ukraine, from land to sea and air, including fighter jet pilots and marines, as part of a long-term investment in their military. The United Kingdom’s surge of military equipment to Ukraine aims to give Ukrainian forces the upper hand on the battlefield and to limit Russia’s ability to target civilian infrastructure.

I turn now to the issue of fighter jets. Your Lordships’ House is at its best when we hear two noble and gallant Lords—the noble and gallant Lords, Lord Craig and Lord Stirrup—commenting specifically on capabilities and capacities. This Chamber is like no other because of our insights and experiences. Our commitment on fighter jets is that, with our partners, we want to ensure as best we can that Ukraine is equipped to defend its sovereign territory, and that the capabilities we provide meet the tactical demands of the conflict as they evolve, hence our recent decision on battle tanks.

The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, raised specific questions on aircraft. I know that my noble friend Lady Goldie will write to him on specific numbers, et cetera. On the point that he raised on the initial F35s, I think 30 of the 48 have already been delivered and a further 18, which amounts to the 48 he mentioned, will also arrive in tranches.

On the more specific and higher-level number—a point also raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith—my noble friend Lady Goldie intends to write to noble Lords on some of the specific questions also raised by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup.

On the issue of defence capability and replenishment, which was raised by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, my noble friends Lord Bellingham and Lord Soames, and others, the Defence Secretary has announced his intention to publish an update on the defence Command Paper in the spring. I believe it will be after the Spring Statement. It will address the issue of the Armed Forces and set defence on a path to remodernisation by 2030.

The noble Lord, Lord Collins of Highbury, on this issue of replenishing military aid, asked about contracts. I think the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, also raised this. The MoD has engaged fully with industry allies and partners to ensure the continuation of supply to Ukraine and that all stocks are replaced as quickly as possible. We have rapidly and effectively adopted our procurement process to reflect the urgency of the situation. A replenishment team has now been established at the newly formed operations directorate and a number of substantial contracts—a point raised by the noble Lord, Lord Collins—have already been placed to directly replenish UK stockpiles. These include Starstreak missiles and lightweight multi-role missiles as well.

My noble friend Lord Bellingham and other noble Lords asked about replenishment. It is right, of course, that we are supplying Ukraine, and replenishment is important. I believe his question was about our ability to continue to fight. The ability to conduct high-end war-fighting remains at the core of the British Army, including remaining in and leading the contribution to NATO and the ability to field a war-fighting division. The Army has two deployable divisions: first, the UK division, which provides a wide range of capabilities, at home and overseas; and, secondly, the Army’s primary armoured war-fighting force. The British Army holds forces at various levels of readiness to ensure that we can defeat a variety of threats at home and abroad. I am sure we will continue to be asked questions on this and my noble friend Lady Goldie looks forward to engaging with noble Lords on this.

My noble friends Lord Bellingham and Lord Shinkwin asked whether British capability can deploy an armoured force. The short answer is yes. The flexibility remains very much for an agile force. I know that noble Lords—the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, in particular, and the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup—have expressed specific concerns. I assure noble Lords that we stand very ready. Of course, I share the view that has been expressed by several noble Lords that the first duty of the Government is the security of our own country and citizens.

On the specific question on eastern European planes, which my noble friend Lord Bellingham asked, and decisions to provide support through individual agreements with other countries, the United Kingdom remains supportive of nations providing fighter jets to Ukraine and will continue to work with international partners in this respect.

On the issue raised by several noble Lords about the training of pilots, as the noble and gallant Lord said, training takes time. He is right: these are complex pieces of military equipment, and the pilots will need to spend a certain amount of time before they are trained up on how to deploy these NATO jets. It speaks to the point that we are in it for the long term. As my noble friend Lady Neville-Jones said, the expansion is not just about providing the immediate capability and requirements to Ukrainian forces. It is also about taking a multi-year approach to ensure that Ukraine has the military means and skills for generations to come—the threat will not cease.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

Will the Minister or the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, respond, perhaps later, on the delays in the training of our own pilots, which is a point I raised?

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

I believe that is something we are very up to date with: there is no challenge in the area of training, but my noble friend will write on the specific point that the noble Lord raised.

The noble Lord, Lord Campbell, also raised the issue of drones and Iran’s role. This has been a really worrying development. We were all very aware of the threat of Iran towards destabilisation, the tragic consequence of which has now extended not just to the region in which Iran is, but to Europe as well. We of course strongly condemn what has happened in this regard and we have also, as the noble Lord will be aware, sanctioned several individuals and businesses responsible for supplying drones.

My noble friend Lord Attlee asked about support for Ukraine, and I thank him for his kind remarks. We have already committed more than £6.1 billion of economic, humanitarian and military support to Ukraine and the Prime Minister has pledged—something that was appreciated and welcomed—that the UK will deliver 14 Challenger 2 tanks to the Ukrainian army. My noble friend pressed me on a meeting he had with Treasury colleagues on the issue of money laundering and raised a specific question. I am sure my colleagues in the Treasury will follow up on that with him but, while I recognise my noble friend’s desire to do whatever it takes to ensure that Ukraine gets the support it needs, it is also imperative, as other noble Lords referred to, that we do not weaken the country’s defences against issues of illicit finance, money laundering and corruption that can end up financing Ukraine’s enemies. We need to be very focused on that.

Moving to the issue of diplomacy, the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, among many others, raised the importance of this role. In particular, I welcome the contribution of the noble Lord, Lord McDonald, on this. The Prime Minister and President Zelensky discussed a two-pronged approach to the UK for Ukraine. In this regard, we remain very resolute in ensuring that military equipment and support is provided.

The noble Baroness, Lady Jones and Lady Brinton, and my noble friend Lord Risby also talked about the importance of our continued support on global mine action. I put on record my deep thanks to the noble Lord, Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, in this respect. We have had discussions about the important role that particular agencies play, whether in Afghanistan, as we have seen, or indeed in Ukraine. The focus on de-mining is a key priority for the FCDO and will remain so. The FCDO has a £2 million agreement with the Halo Trust—I know that the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, works very closely with that trust. We are also providing de-mining equipment and training to these state emergency services as part of a £14.5 million contribution to the multi-donor partnership fund for building a resilient Ukraine, and providing a further £0.6 million to UNDP to support co-ordination in this.

On the issue of diplomacy at an international level, the Prime Minister has offered the UK’s backing to President Zelensky’s plans to work closely towards a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. I know that my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary, James Cleverley, as well as myself and others, are regularly in touch with Foreign Minister Kuleba in co-ordinating activities. The Foreign Secretary was in the United States and Canada only last month, meeting counterparts to discuss going further and faster in Ukraine, and the Defence Secretary has been in Poland and Germany recently, making progress with further donations and international co-ordination. Almost a year on from the invasion, there is a strong alliance internationally and a resolve to continue on this path.

My noble friend Lord Soames raised the important issue of India, as did other key contributors. We continue to have very open and candid exchanges with India. Of course, from a historical perspective, India has relied on a defence partnership with Russia. However, as the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, will testify, it is important as we look at a broader and stronger alliance with India that we also look to see how trust —and co-operation—from both sides can be further strengthened, particularly when we see yet wider threats in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. India will be a key strategic partner here, and we need to see how we can further strengthen that relationship. On the issue of India’s abstention within the United Nations, for example, India has given its reasons for that.

On the issues raised about South Africa, we know that Mr Lavrov is on a charm offensive across Africa—he has been into the Sahel recently as well—offering Russian support. There is a clear diplomatic effort to win further support. It was extremely worrying, as I said from the Dispatch Box, seeing what happened in South Africa, as a Commonwealth partner.

This comes back to a point that I raised at CHOGM 2018, and in CHOGM 2022 we had the same challenge again. I sat in the Foreign Ministers meeting when we needed to agree a communiqué with language on Ukraine, which a number of countries objected to and it was a hard challenge. However, through our diplomatic channels we achieve success in that regard, but we need to remain very vigilant and focused, so I accept the points that were made by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, as well as those made by noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig, the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, and others. My noble friend Lord Howell talked importantly about the Commonwealth partnerships in this respect also.

My noble friend also mentioned the need to build relationships, and we are doing this within the context of the UN and not just the Commonwealth. As the noble Lord, Lord McDonald, pointed out, there were three votes at the United Nations General Assembly. In the first, on 2 March last year, 141 states condemned Russia’s invasion—the noble Lord, Lord Purvis, asked how we can increase the isolation of Russia diplomatically. In the second vote, on 24 March last year, 140 countries joined the humanitarian resolution. On 12 October, 143 countries condemned Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

I can share with the noble Lords that we are currently working with international partners ahead of a UN General Assembly resolution and UN Security Council meeting to mark one year of the war on 24 February. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary will attend that Security Council meeting. As the noble Lord, Lord McDonald, reminded us—and, having been involved with these matters, he speaks from great insight and experience—it is no easy task getting these numbers within the context of the General Assembly, and it is a hard diplomatic lift. I pay tribute to our diplomats around the world who have acted admirably, notwithstanding the challenges they face in ensuring we continue to build and have these strong alliances.

I accept the point that there were about 40-odd abstentions, but we have seen certain countries shift. I can share with noble Lords that, for example, the UAE has shifted its position in the UN Security Council. I was recently engaging with Kuwait, and we have also seen Kuwait now providing humanitarian support.

On disinformation—I am conscious of time; I could continue for another half an hour but will not do so—these issues are very much high up on our agenda. I accept the points made by the noble Baroness, Lady Jones, and have shared her experiences, which show what can happen through social media and other actions when people speak out and the disinformation campaign continues. I hear the points made about the BBC World Service, but we have allocated additional funding. I saw the strength of contributions in that regard in the earlier Question today.

We have stood by Ukraine very strongly when it comes to humanitarian support. For the longer term—a point made by several noble Lords—we have included £1.35 billion in lending guarantees through the World Bank and the EBRD, £100 million in direct budgetary assistance and £220 million of humanitarian support.

A number of other questions were raised. In the interests of time, I must beg the noble Lord’s indulgence on the issue of the use of frozen assets, which was raised by the noble Lord, Lord Purvis.

On the support we have given for the winter challenges, we have allocated a further £12 million to the World Food Programme. On sanctions, I know noble Lords are very seized of this; I have been providing regular briefings and will continue to do so.

On the Black Sea grain initiative, we have seen good progress; the next renewal date is March 2023, so we are right up against it—it is normally on a running cycle of 120 days. But we need to ensure that we remain focused and build further support for that.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, asked rightly about ensuring effective monitoring and closing down loopholes. Of course, we have the OFSI here in the UK, but we need to work with international partners to ensure that we cut down those who are seeking to circumvent sanctions. I cannot speculate on the issue of proscription, but the issues raised on the Wagner Group have been well received. Noble Lords will be aware of various sanctions we have used in this regard.

I said I would mention the issue of war crimes, and I think it is important to do so. I totally accept the points made by the noble Lords, Lord Hannay, Lord Browne and Lord Collins, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, about the importance of this. We are involved at all levels, and we are working very closely with Karim Khan at the ICC. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary and I have met with him on a number of occasions and will continue to do so. My right honourable friend the Deputy Prime Minister is also leading a cross-government group in this respect. We will host a major international meeting in March to support the ICC in this endeavour.

The noble Lords, Lord Purvis and Lord Collins, raised the issue of the hybrid mechanism. We are also involved with the working group on that. Recently—only last month—the Attorney-General and I briefed the APPG on Ukraine about steps we are taking, and we are working very closely on this.

Finally, we announced at the PSVI conference the new international alliance on preventing sexual violence in conflict. That will be formally launched at the CSW at the UN in March.

Once again, I thank all noble Lords for their contributions. There is always more to say, but as my noble friend Lord Cormack quite rightly said, what more can be done? Given the time I have taken, I have perhaps indicated that a lot is being done. Mr Putin has a clear message being sent to him that the world stands united, and we will continue to do so. His disregard for international norms and laws is unacceptable. He will continue, I am sure, in his unprovoked, reckless and destabilising activity, but the ultimate objective must be to remove Russian forces from Ukraine, relinquish his illegal control of Ukrainian territory, and end his barbaric attacks against civilians. Until then, the Government are resolute—I know I speak for all noble Lords on this—and we will continue to support the brave people of Ukraine by ramping up diplomatic, economic and, yes, military pressure on Mr Putin and Russia. We will do all we can to bring about the end of Mr Putin’s invasion and ensure that in 2023 and beyond, Ukraine maintains its momentum, supported by the international community.

In closing, I again recognise the contribution and lineage of my noble friend Lord Soames, so it is perhaps apt to end this debate with a quote from Winston Churchill about a conflict of the past which is very much etched on our minds:

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts”—


and Ukraine has that in abundance. As President Zelensky himself said yesterday, freedom will win. Slava Ukraini!

Armed Forces: Resilience

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Thursday 26th January 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, on 28 November, just under two months ago, I sat opposite Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet. Let me quote from his speech:

“As Edmund Burke argued, circumstances and context are everything. And today the pace of geopolitical change is intensifying. Our adversaries and competitors plan for the long term. After years of pushing at the boundaries, Russia is challenging the fundamental principles of the UN Charter. China is conspicuously competing for global influence using all the levers of state power. In the face of these challenges, short-termism or wishful thinking will not suffice.”


We have heard many brilliant speeches. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said that size matters. What is the reality? The noble Lord, Lord Empey, has just talked about this. The number of recruits enlisted in the UK’s Armed Forces has dropped by 30% as Russia carries on attacking Ukraine. There was a 17% rise in experienced personnel signing off in the year ending September 2022. Our excellent Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders, has warned that the country is weaker after donating so much equipment to Ukraine.

The reality is that the Army is shrinking to its smallest size since the Napoleonic wars. By 2025, it will be down to 73,000 troops. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, for initiating this debate. In the debate we had in 2019 to celebrate the anniversary of NATO, which was well before the Ukraine war, I remember saying very categorically that we need to increase expenditure on defence to 3% of GDP. Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, in their irrational exuberance, lasted for just a few days, but they were right on one thing: they wanted to increase defence expenditure to 3% of GDP. My noble and gallant friend Lord Stirrup said that the Treasury needs a more innovative approach and that critical mass matters. My late father, Lieutenant General Bilimoria, commanded a corps of 110,000 troops on the Pakistan border in Punjab and Rajasthan. The Central Command, of which he was commander-in-chief, had 350,000 troops.

NATO matters. When I was president of the CBI, the Ukraine war started and the following week I was invited by the EU ambassador to be the guest speaker at his weekly meeting of all 27 EU ambassadors. I said directly to the ambassadors of Sweden and Finland: “Are you now going to join NATO?” and they said, “We are ready to join in five minutes.” Thankfully, they are now joining. Of course, the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, who has phenomenal experience as a former Secretary-General of NATO, implemented Article 5. The reality is that NATO will stand together. People say, “What if Putin attacks Latvia or Lithuania?” We will stand and Article 5, I guarantee, will be implemented.

As the president of CBI, one of my proudest moments was straight after the war started. I reached out to Vadym Prystaiko, the Ukrainian ambassador, who has become a good friend, and asked how British business could help. In his office, we held a virtual meeting with leaders of British industry. Since the week after the war started, we have sent millions of ration packs to the troops in Ukraine. We sent medical kits that they did not have, we sent food parcels for people who are starving in the food basket of the world, and now, thankfully, the USA and the UK, above everyone else, although now everyone else is joining in, are sending the tanks in. Will the Minister say whether we should be sending more? Should we be sending missiles with a range of more than 200 miles? Should we be sending aircraft? I get asked that question all the time.

To quote again from the Prime Minister’s Lord Mayor’s Banquet speech:

“By protecting Ukraine, we protect ourselves. With the fall of Kabul, the pandemic, the economic strife, some said the West was weak. In fact, our response in Ukraine has shown the depth of our collective resolve. Sweden and Finland are joining NATO.”


How far are we prepared to go? How scared are we about retaliation from Russia? If we want to help Ukraine win this war, it is in reality our war for freedom and democracy.

The noble Lord, Lord Hintze, said that he is an honorary captain in the Royal Navy. I am proud to be an honorary group captain in 601 Squadron of the Royal Air Force. This was a very famous squadron that performed very well and with great valour in World War II in the Battle of Britain and in Malta and North Africa, and it has now been revived. The way in which we look after veterans in this country is not good enough. The Americans are so much better. People wear their uniforms with pride. Members of the public respect that uniform. In India, my 86 year-old mother can go into a canteen or a military hospital for the rest of her life. Veterans are looked after. I suggest that we do more. Does the Minister agree?

I am very proud to chair the Memorial Gates Trust, which established the memorial gates on Constitution Hill, which were inaugurated by Her Majesty the Queen 20 years ago. The noble Baroness, Lady Flather, had a huge role to play. The gates are there to commemorate and remember the five million volunteers from south Asia, Africa and the Caribbean who served in the First and Second World Wars. In the roof of the pavilion next to the gates are the names of all those who were awarded the Victoria Cross or the George Cross, including three from my father’s battalion, the 2/5th Gorkha Rifles (Frontier Force), who were awarded the Victoria Cross.

Earlier this month, I was in Jodhpur with His Highness Gaj Singh, the Maharaja of Jodhpur, to celebrate his 70th birthday. At the celebrations, I met Brigadier Jodha, whose grandfather led the charge in the Battle of Haifa at the end of the First World War in 1918. I was privileged to speak at an event here in the House of Lords to celebrate and commemorate the centenary. It was the Jodhpur Lancers, the Hyderabad Lancers and the Mysore Lancers against the Turks in one of the last cavalry charges against machine-guns, and they won. This is the bravery. This is the reputation that this country has always had.

It was Field-Marshal Manekshaw, the former Chief of the Army Staff of the Indian Army, who said:

“If a man says he is not afraid of dying, he is either lying or he is a Gurkha.”


That is their bravery. We are lucky: we still have thousands of Gurkhas, and I want reassurance from the Government that we will never cut our Gurkhas. The noble Lord, Lord Hintze, said that today is Australia Day. Today is also India’s Republic Day, and I will be back at the Guildhall today to celebrate that. Going back to 1961, Her Majesty the Queen was the chief guest at the Republic Day parade. My father, then Captain Bilimoria, was the senior ADC on duty on the podium with the President of India and the Queen.

Fast forward to a few years ago and the then Prince of Wales, now King Charles III, visited the Indian Military Academy in Dehradun. The links that we now have are absolutely phenomenal but, as the noble Lord, Lord Hintze, said very clearly, soft power without hard power is no power. We have this amazing relationship with India; our trade at the moment with India is £29 billion, but India is only the 12th-largest trading partner of the UK. It needs to be much more.

I said in a debate a week ago here in this House:

“The Indian express has left the station. It is now the fastest train in the world—the fastest-growing major economy in the world.”—[Official Report, 19/1/23; col. 2013.]


In 25 years it has a target to reach a GDP of $32 trillion, to become the second-largest economy in the world. Are we going to be the best partners of India in the years ahead? I say that we should, and we will be even closer partners if we have closer defence ties with India beyond staff college and the Royal College of Defence Studies, the National Defence College and Wellington staff college—of which my father was commandant. We need closer ties. As we speak, a British Navy ship is visiting the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, for joint exercises and much more.

I would go so far as to say—and I would be very interested to hear the Minister’s response—that I think that the UK should join Quad. Quad is the USA, India, Japan, and Australia: if the UK joins, we square the whole world round and it would be a really powerful force. I think we should bring back the Indian Army liaison officer role from the Indian Army within the British Army.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, spoke about morale. I think that esprit de corps is something that is greatly under threat if we have a morale problem. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Peach, in his excellent maiden speech, spoke about innovation and research and development. Well, the reality is that we spend 1.7% of GDP on research and development innovation, and America spends 3.2%. We need to drastically increase our investment in R&D innovation.

So I conclude with this: we have, as a country, one of the strongest elements of soft power in the world. We have the highest-quality Armed Forces in the world, so we do have that hard power. But, as the Duke of Wellington’s motto says, fortune favours the bold. We need to be bolder: we need to invest in our Armed Forces, to respect our Armed Forces, and to treasure our Armed Forces. They serve us; they serve our nation. It is our duty to never ever take our superb Armed Forces for granted, and to always be grateful to them.