Oral Answers to Questions

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Tuesday 1st November 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call Kelvin Hopkins.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

Next question.

[Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) (Con)]

7. What recent estimate he has made of the level of central Government debt.

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[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

In 1945, Britain had higher Government debt than now and the Government of that time did not impose cuts but ran a full-employment economy and there was rapid growth. Is it not time that the Government took a leaf out of Labour’s book in relation to running the economy?

[Mr Gauke]

May I just make the point about the 1945 Government that they were running surpluses from 1948 onwards? If memory serves, the debt in 1945 was 232% of GDP and by 1951 it was 178% of GDP, so they brought debt down. That is not a bad thing to do and this Government want to do it, whereas the Labour party wants to put debt up.

Eurozone Crisis

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Thursday 27th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

If my hon. Friend is referring, as I suspect he is, to the European Union Act 2011, there are clear procedures in place for establishing whether powers or competences are being transferred from the UK and this Parliament to Brussels. Those procedures are clearly set out, but I would say that it is in our interests that the euro works. That requires greater fiscal integration within the eurozone, which works to the benefit of Britain, provided that—this is an important proviso—we can continue to ensure that our voice is heard on issues that are for the 27 members, such as the single market, competition policy and financial services. That is what we will be fighting hard for in the coming months.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

I remain wholly unconvinced that the euro can survive in its current form, unless the weaker countries are permitted to recreate their own currencies and devalue. They currently face permanent deflation and permanent handouts from Germany. That is no future for them, and no future for Europe.

[Mr Osborne]

The hon. Gentleman has consistently made that argument for at least as long as I have been a Member of the House of Commons, and longer still. He probably takes some comfort in the fact that events over the past decade have tended to reinforce the views that he has expressed, but I would say this: it is in Britain’s interest that we make the euro work. The disorderly break-up of the euro, or any break-up of the euro, would be an enormous economic blow for this country. Forty per cent. of our trade is with the eurozone.

If we set aside the arguments that we will have this autumn and next year about the domestic effects of the Government’s policies—the Government will argue that they promote growth, and the Opposition will argue that they undermine it—everyone in the House would accept that instability in the eurozone has had a chilling effect on the British economy and other economies. If that is what a bit of instability and market volatility can create, let us just imagine what the break-up of the eurozone will do to this economy.

Eurozone

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Monday 10th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I am afraid I do not have the figures to hand, although I will definitely bring them to our debate on Wednesday. What I do know is that when I arrived in the Treasury, the euro preparations unit still existed, and we had to shut it down. Perhaps it was something that the shadow Chancellor did not get round to in all those years at the Treasury when he was running British economic policy during the golden era.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

A number of eurozone members will be condemned to permanent deflation, low growth and high unemployment and will require ongoing fiscal handouts unless and until they can leave the euro. Britain is well placed to advise on such a process. Whatever the Chancellor says publicly, will he be offering that advice privately?

[Mr Osborne]

I think that is called a trick question. The hon. Gentleman has been an absolutely consistent and principled opponent of the euro. When I first arrived in the House in 2001, he was making the argument then and he is still making it now, and I respect him for it. As I have said, however, “I told you so” is not an economic policy at the moment. He may well be right about the problems of combining the economies of different countries with totally different structural problems, competitiveness rates and so on, let alone fiscal policies. He is right about all that, but we have to deal with the world as it is, and at a time like this I do not think that advocating the break-up of the euro is in our national interest. We need to make the euro work. Monetary unions can be made to work, but that involves things like fiscal transfers. At last, I think, the eurozone is facing up to that.

European Union Fiscal Union

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Wednesday 14th September 2011 Westminster Hall

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

On the Eurosceptic fringe, the fact is that, on many occasions when referendums have been held, the majority have voted in a Eurosceptic way, so it is possible that there is a Eurosceptic majority in the European Union.

[Mr Cash]

Opinion polls in this country have regularly indicated that 70% want a referendum and, moreover, would vote yes against the idea of the continuation of our present relationship with the European Union. People want renegotiation and if they do not get it, they want to leave. That is the position.

We are confronted with an incredibly serious situation that is getting worse. There will be a telephone conference this afternoon—it might already be in progress, at the very moment when we are debating this question—between Monsieur Sarkozy, Angela Merkel and Papandreou, because the system has failed. If, however, we raise the question of its failure, the response is, “We don’t want less Europe; we want more,” so they want more integration, not less.

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[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

I am grateful to have an opportunity to speak in the debate and to support the hon. Member for Stone (Mr Cash) in his concerns about fiscal union.

The issue has been raised because the eurozone is in deep trouble and is starting seriously to fall apart. A fiscal union would mean that one had substantial redistribution between the wealthy parts and the poor parts of an area. That would be acceptable in a democratic member state with a meaningful polity, but the European Union is not one. I suspect the German people would have something to say about such a proposal, if it ever went ahead. As we have seen, the German representative on the European Central Bank has already resigned because he knows that such a proposal will cause serious problems for Germany and is completely unacceptable.

I have something of track record on this issue. Thirty-two years ago, I did not think I would be speaking in such a debate. At that time, I wrote a brief for the general secretary of the union I worked for—the National and Local Government Officers Association. Economic policy was one of my areas, and I wrote a brief urging him to suggest to the TUC that we should not join the European monetary system, or the snake, which was a forerunner of the exchange rate mechanism and the single currency. He took my brief to the TUC, banged the table and demanded that the TUC take that line, which it did. The TUC then went along to see Denis Healey and banged the table, and he did not join the snake. I do not say it was all down to my brief, but at least I was on the same side, and we got the right answer. Unfortunately we joined the exchange rate mechanism a little later, and that was a mistake, but I could see the direction of travel then, and that it would be a disaster for both democracy and economics.

My hon. Friend the Member for Blackley and Broughton (Graham Stringer), who is no longer in his place, raised the question of democracy. It must have certain features: not just votes, but votes for people who will have power—Governments and representatives who can make decisions on voters’ behalf, and make the votes meaningful. If the vote has no meaning at all—if it is just a declaration and power is held by other people—that is not a true democracy.

Another feature of democracy is the ability to change Governments, as we have just done. The change we made was not to my taste, but nevertheless that is democracy. The way to keep the far right, and extremists of all kinds, away is to have a meaningful democracy, in which Governments can be changed, and where they have power over the lives of the people they represent. If they have no power there is no point, which is when street politics takes over. We do not want street politics. The things that happened on the extreme right and left before the second world war made for a very unpleasant time, which led to the war. We do not want that to happen again.

[Mr MacShane]

Does my hon. Friend take comfort from the fact that the most dramatic rise of the far right has been in Sweden, while the most dramatic and horrible single incident associated with it was the terrible slaughter in Norway? There was also the anti-Muslim referendum in Switzerland on places of worship, sponsored by the hard-right nationalist SVP. Does my hon. Friend take comfort from all those countries either being outside the European Union or not using the euro?

[Kelvin Hopkins]

With the far right we need to look at each individual case; I think that in Norway it was just one lunatic—an obsessive. Of course the far right attracts people who I would suggest are not entirely sane. Nevertheless, the far right in general has not taken hold in post-war Europe because we have had meaningful democracies; but I think those meaningful democracies are starting to fade. Fiscal union would, again, mean democracy taking more of a back seat.

It is clear that the founding fathers and mothers of the European Union in the 1950s wanted a world in which electors did not have the power to change Governments; they wanted power safely in the hands of a stable body. That is why the Commission was set up—to make sure that we do not have distasteful changes of politics and Government. However, changes of Government mean that people believe in democracy and work for it. They know that they will have a chance of getting their party into power next time. I shall certainly work hard next time to make sure that our party comes back into power; and no doubt our Conservative and Liberal Democrat colleagues will do the same. That is why democracy means something: we know it matters because those elected have power, and because it is possible to change the Government. That cannot be done with the European Union.

We are in a European crisis. The hon. Member for Stone constantly refers to Europe, but I refer to the European Union. The European Union is not Europe: they are two concepts. Europe is a wonderful continent full of fabulous people and great culture, history, music, art, languages, and literature; but the European Union is a political construct imposed on some of the countries of Europe. I fully support the idea of a different kind of European Union—a loose association of democratic member states co-operating for mutual benefit. I do not support a bureaucratic and anti-democratic machine that controls our lives and makes our votes decreasingly meaningful at national level.

The polity over which a Government govern must also be meaningful. If national boundaries are dissolved, and other structures are imposed—especially if those are not democratically controlled—that is not democracy. The great thing about democracy is that it is accepted these days that it will govern a national state. I am an internationalist, but I think that internationalism is about good relations between states, not the abolition of states, national boundaries or national entities. We get on extremely well with other states around the world because we co-operate across national boundaries, but we do not want them to disappear completely. We have culture, language and history that unite us in particular polities. That is why Germany, for example, could unite its east and west and spend a vast amount of money rebuilding East Germany. It was accepted that it was part of Germany. I doubt whether it would have spent so much money rebuilding, say, Greece—because Greece is not part of Germany but a separate country.

I think that many people would be upset if the same kind of money that went into rebuilding East Germany went into helping Greece. Greece now has the opportunity to get out of the euro, recreate the drachma and devalue. Suddenly, Greece would become the cheapest place in Europe for people to holiday, and the tourist industry would take off like nobody’s business. Greece would recover, because that is what it will be good at. It is a beautiful place, where people go on holiday. That is the logic for Greece.

The problem, of course, is that banks—and particularly French banks—have lent vast sums of money to Greece, and will be in trouble if that happens. However, as was said in a good discussion on “Newsnight” last night, either the euro will collapse and there will be a crisis with many people losing their money, or we will deconstruct the euro in a progressive and managed way, and some banks will have problems. Then Governments will have to step in and no doubt recapitalise those banks, if they choose to keep them alive. That is a difficult choice, but the logic is for countries that cannot sustain membership of the eurozone to get out, recreate their own currencies and devalue.

Ireland’s major economic partner is Britain. The British isles is not a single economy, but we are close. The fact that we are not in the euro and have depreciated our currency substantially means that the poor Irish, who are stuck in the euro, are massively over-valued relative to Britain, and so have a trading problem with Britain. I have suggested to Irish friends that they should recreate the punt, depreciate and rejoin the sterling zone, which is where they belong, instead of remaining in the eurozone, where they do not. I have not had any positive answer to that suggestion, but that is the logic of where we should be going.

I could speak for much longer, but others want to speak and I have probably said enough for the time being. I support the hon. Member for Stone in arguing the strong case against fiscal union.

[Annette Brooke (in the Chair)]

After the next speech, by the hon. Member for Northampton South (Mr Binley), I would like to call the hon. Member for Witham (Priti Patel), and I know that there are others who want to speak. The winding-up speeches will begin at 3.40pm.

Global Economy

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Thursday 11th August 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Order. I appeal to colleagues to ask single, short supplementary questions without preamble, so that we can maximise the number of contributors.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

The frightening instability of the world economy has arisen since, and as a result of, the abandoning of the post-war arrangements decided at Bretton Woods, and the liberalisation and globalisation of finance capital. Part of that arrangement was that each country had its own currency and managed its own economy within international rules. Would it not be sensible to move back in that direction by establishing national currencies within the eurozone and starting again where we left off?

Finance Bill

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Tuesday 28th June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Ian Swales]

Well, £4,000 extra VAT is obviously one way that they are contributing as a result of this Government’s policies.

The hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie) said in the previous debate that the important focus of the tax and benefit system is on need and alleviation of poverty. I believe that VAT increases, which impact on the wealthy more than on the poor, are a good way of doing that.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

The hon. Gentleman keeps referring to VAT as a progressive tax. It is a flat tax, proportionate all the way up the income scale. Progressive taxes have increasing rates at higher incomes.

[Ian Swales]

Technically, VAT is a progressive spending tax because the average rate paid increases the more one spends. That is the definition of a progressive tax.

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[Mr Hanson]

I suppose that is why the Federation of Master Builders only today—[Interruption.] Just for the record, on my uttering “Federation of Master Builders”, Conservative Members fell about with laughter, but the FMB’s members build houses and employ people in the construction industry. Only today—in a brief dated today—it stated:

“The situation for small construction firms has been made more perilous by the VAT increase at the start of the year,”

and that we risk

“11,400 construction job losses and 34,000 total potential job losses”

because of the VAT increase. The hon. Member for Bristol West (Stephen Williams) and his colleagues may recall that the OBR expects some 200,000 additional people to become unemployed this year. The lack of consumer confidence, the impact of VAT and the lack of consumer spending will be critical to those potential job losses in the community.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

The Tories have a track record on this. My right hon. Friend may recall that in 1979 they raised VAT from 8% to 15%, massively deflating the economy. Unemployment rose by 2 million and a fifth of manufacturing industry disappeared, and it was all down to that policy.

The Economy

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Ed Balls]

In a moment I will deal with the parallel with the United Kingdom. Let me say first, however, that the lesson of history shows that it is not possible to deal with a solvency crisis by providing liquidity package after liquidity package, because that does not reach the heart of the issue. On the contrary, it makes the position worse and worse. At some point people will have to face up to that. Package after package has been agreed, but that has not worked. The debt has not gone down; it has gone up.

History teaches us that three things are necessary to the credibility of a plan, whether it involves monetary policy or fiscal policy. First, the plan must be for the medium term; secondly, there must be political support for it; and thirdly, it must work. If it does not work, that will eventually rebound on political support, as we have seen in Greece in recent weeks.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

I entirely agree with what my right hon. Friend has said about both Greece and the need for a plan, but if a plan is to be implemented the country concerned must have control of its exchange rates, interest rates and fiscal policy, and that is not possible inside the eurozone.

[Ed Balls]

Let me deal with precisely that point by returning to the subject of the United Kingdom. Notwithstanding what I consider to be a rather tawdry attempt to use what seems to be a political claim that a sovereign debt crisis exists here in the UK to give the Liberal Democrats an excuse to ditch everything in their manifesto and support a Conservative party policy, the fact is that the plan is not working here either.

The Chancellor likes to play this game. A few weeks ago, he told the “Politics Show” that if he “abandoned” his plan,

“Within minutes Britain would be in financial turmoil.”

As I have just said, the Greek Prime Minister’s experience shows that simply talking tough does not make someone credible and does not boost market confidence if the plan is not working.

The reason why there is now a question mark over the Chancellor’s credibility is that in recent weeks and months we have had an economy that has not been growing; fewer people in work and paying tax than there should be; and more people on benefits than there should be. That makes it harder to get the deficit down. We have had stagnant output for six months and we have forecasts being downgraded left, right and centre. This is not about bad news now and short-term pain. All that makes it harder to get the deficit down and undermines our long-term credibility, investment and confidence. As the former chief economist at the Cabinet Office, who is now head of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said:

“You do not gain credibility by sticking to a strategy that isn’t working.”

That is the situation we are now in.

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[Mr Osborne]

We all read those papers in The Daily Telegraph. They revealed that the shadow Chancellor knew before the then Chancellor of the Exchequer came to the House of Commons that the 10p tax rate that Labour Members all voted for would hit the poorest in our country.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

rose—

[Mr Osborne]

The hon. Gentleman may not have voted for it, but the rest of his colleagues did. That is the absolutely astonishing revelation from those papers.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

I hope the Chancellor will not describe me as a henchman. Writing yesterday, Lord Skidelsky said that taking £112 billion out of the economy in the next four years will be a massive fiscal contraction, and he described it as

“the royal road to stagnation, not recovery.”

What does the right hon. Gentleman have to say to Lord Skidelsky?

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[Kelvin Hopkins]

I am listening to my right hon. Friend with interest, and I agree with what he is saying. While the interest rate reduction has helped on this occasion, on the previous occasion under the exchange rate mechanism strategy the deflationary effects of high interest rates created 1 million extra unemployed, and that unemployment, certainly in my constituency, caused many people to hand over their keys and walk away from their mortgages.

[Mr Raynsford]

My hon. Friend makes an important point. These factors are all interrelated. The lower impact of unemployment in this latest recession, compared with those of the 1980s and the 1990s, is undoubtedly one of the factors that has contributed to its having less severe consequences.

A year ago, before the Chancellor presented his first Budget, we were seeing recovery in the housing market. New housing starts were beginning to rise and confidence was returning, and it was reasonable to expect that real growth would be sustained through 2010 and 2011. Instead, the market has stalled. Prices are static or slightly falling. There has been a continuing very low level of starts, and consumer confidence is at catastrophic levels. For only the third time in its 37-year history, the GfK NOP consumer confidence barometer has been below the -30% level. That is an indication of just how devastating is the lack of confidence in current market circumstances.

Why are we in this situation? In part, it is the consequence of the Chancellor’s overall economic strategy and the way in which he is managing the British economy and damaging confidence. The confidence issue is not unique to the housing market. It is a much wider issue, as everyone will recognise, although it has a devastating consequence for the housing market. The situation is also the consequence of maladroit policies being pursued by the Government. I would be interested to know how the Chancellor approaches the Localism Bill, which his colleagues from the Department for Communities and Local Government are taking through Parliament with the confident claim that it will devolve more and more control to local neighbourhoods to be able to say no to developments that they do not like. As we heard in his latest Budget, he wants the default position on housing and other planning applications to be yes, but I am afraid that the truth is that most of the communities who have been given the prospect of far greater control over planning decisions want the default position to be no. There is a fundamental tension between the growth aspirations that he talks about and the actions of this Government, which are in many ways damaging growth.

Eurozone (Contingency Plans)

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Monday 20th June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hoban]

As ever, my hon. Friend, whom I congratulate on becoming a member of the Privy Council in the birthday honours list, speaks wise words. The Chancellor has been very clear that we do not wish to be part of a fiscal government for the European Union. That is why we have fought for the right package for economic governance, which safeguards the independence and sovereignty of this House when it comes to making fiscal decisions. My hon. Friend rightly reminds us why it was right never to join the euro.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

Whatever happens in Greece this afternoon, and even if there is a fire sale of public assets to buy time, the fact is that the euro is moving inexorably towards its death throes. The realistic choice is between a controlled deconstruction of the euro and the restoration of national currencies, or a crash that would be catastrophic for everyone.

[Mr Hoban]

The hon. Gentleman once again reminds us how important stability in the eurozone is—the situation could have a significant impact on the UK economy, which is why it is important that the Greeks resolve their problems in conjunction with eurozone member states. However, let me make this quite clear again: we do not want to be part of that bail-out.

Oral Answers to Questions

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Tuesday 10th May 2011 Commons Chamber

[Justine Greening]

I completely agree with my hon. Friend; he is absolutely right that manufacturing has a vital role to play. In fact, the total trade deficits narrowed in each of the past three months, and that recovery in exports has been driven largely by strong growth in the export of manufactured goods, which accounted for almost 50% of the UK’s total exports. That is not just good news for those businesses; it is good news for jobs, too. It shows that under this Government Britain is not just open for business in the UK; it is open for business abroad, too.

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

When the Government’s cuts really start to kick-in, unemployment will rise by hundreds of thousands, if not up to 1 million. That will result in lower tax revenues and higher benefit payments, and the deficit will get worse and public borrowing will increase. Is not the Government’s policy nonsense?

[Justine Greening]

The hon. Gentleman is giving a critique of his own party’s policy in many respects, because its proposed cuts are nearly as large as ours this year. The difference is that we have set up the Office for Budget Responsibility, and there is clear evidence that we will start to see employment growing year on year and unemployment falling year on year, so by the end of this Parliament we should see a net creation of almost 1 million jobs. Surely, the hon. Gentleman must welcome that? His party leaves unemployment higher when it leaves office.

Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993

Kelvin Hopkins Excerpts

Wednesday 27th April 2011 Commons Chamber

[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

The Minister talks about imbalances. We always talk about financial imbalances, but the real imbalances in the European Union are the massive imbalances in trade. Germany has looked after its manufacturing and we have neglected ours under several Governments over the past 30 years. We at least are able to depreciate our currency and to address that to an extent, but there has still been a complete failure by successive Governments to do anything to counter the collapse of manufacturing that began in 1979 when we lost a fifth of it following the election of a Conservative Government.

[Mr Hoban]

The hon. Gentleman makes an important point. Under the previous Government, we saw a further deterioration in manufacturing and an overreliance on the financial services sector, creating some of the imbalances that led to the deepest recession since the 1930s. Part of the challenge faced by the Government is how to tackle those imbalances and move to a more broadly based economy, and I shall touch on that later in my speech.

We must remember that sustainable economic growth across Europe is vital to the success of the British economy. Having the right warning mechanisms in place, underpinned by sound data, will help to identify future economic crises that could harm the UK economy. Even though we are not part of the single currency and will not be joining it in the lifetime of this Parliament, we cannot consign ourselves to be bystanders in the debate.

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[Chris Leslie]

I presume that the House has to agree the contents of the convergence programme before it can be posted to the European Commission. The hon. Member for Bury North (Mr Nuttall) implied that the Commission could probably glean all the information online, and there is a perfectly reasonable argument that the Commission should follow events in member state countries rather than expect these matters to be handed to it on a platter. I do not think that presenting the information is necessarily genuflecting in front of Brussels, but the obligation to do so is certainly a core component of the treaties. I simply point out that fact.

The point of the motion about which we need to be most wary is the noting “with approval” the Government’s assessment of the economy, particularly given the Chancellor’s and Treasury Ministers’ lamentable failure to understand the need for economic growth. Page 13 of the convergence programme, which was published just 24 hours ago, says that the recovery is in line with previous recoveries. That, of course, is not the case.

In the recessions of the early ’80s and ’90s the economy had clawed back economic strength by this stage in the economic cycle. However, since this Government took office, the trajectory of recovery has stalled. We are already seeing that the information in the document, published just 24 hours ago, is becoming out of date.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

Is it not rather regrettable that we should have chosen to acquiesce in the Government’s decision rather than call for a Division? I would be happy to vote against the document if we had the chance.

[Chris Leslie]

We have the opportunity to divide the House on this matter, although I think that it would be a deferred Division; obviously, that is a matter for Mr Speaker.

As we go through the details of the document, we see that there are problems in it. Page 17 says that the economy is forecast to grow by 1.7% in 2011—lower than the forecast in the June Budget. Is that forecast sustainable? The Government and the Office for Budget Responsibility revised down their forecasts for growth in June and revised down expectations in November. The OBR then revised down expectations for a third time after the March Budget.

The answer to the question that I asked the Minister earlier—what was the OBR’s prediction for the first quarter of this calendar year—is 0.8%. Yet today the Office for National Statistics gave a rather comatose and limp growth rate of 0.5%. That comes on the heels of a growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2010 of minus 0.5%. Essentially, there has been a zero rate of growth—flat-lining—over the past six months.

As Stephanie Flanders, the BBC’s economics editor, said, it is

“depressing to think that the economy is treading water…in a normal recovery we would expect to see a lot of momentum at this point”.

Chris Giles, economics editor at the Financial Times, said that for there to have been any credible claim to a return of underlying growth, this quarter’s figure should have been 0.7%. He went on:

“Add in one quarter of the growth expected in 2011—about another 0.5 per cent—and the figure necessary to show the economy growing at an average pace in the first quarter is at least 1.2 per cent.

Arguably, it should be even higher, at somewhere about 1.7 per cent, if the underlying stagnation in the fourth quarter of 2010 has been recovered in the first quarter of this year.”

We are a long way from that, and that is a serious problem. Yet the Chancellor seems to think that we are on the right track; as somebody said today, if he thinks that, he needs to chuck away his satnav and get a new one.

The GDP growth figure of 0.5% for the first three months of this year merely replaces the loss of output in the snowbound fourth quarter of 2010 and suggests that the economy has no underlying momentum at all. The chief statistician at the ONS said today that we had been “on a plateau” for the past six months. Tony Dolphin, the chief economist at the Institute for Public Policy Research, says that a 0.5% fall followed by a 0.5% bounce-back is equivalent to two successive quarters of zero growth—

“as close as it is possible to come to a recession without actually being in one”.

Yet the Prime Minister says that this is “good news”—those were his words as he trumpeted this resounding success at Prime Minister’s Questions today. Even the Minister said, a matter of minutes ago, that it is good progress. I am afraid to say, however, that the document we are being asked to approve is already out of date, even though it was published only 24 hours ago. It is a bit of dead parrot. It is no more, it has ceased to be, it has expired; it is an ex-convergence programme.

It is not good enough if the Minister cannot even produce a document when he gets advance notice of ONS growth statistics that matches the realities of the economy rather than the forecasting ideas that are dreamed up in the Treasury. That is a sign that the Government do not understand the importance of growth in our economy, especially when today’s statistics showed that construction has fallen back by 7% over the past six months, with total production already falling back even from the last quarter before Christmas. Government cuts have not yet started in earnest, and the VAT increase is already biting hard.

What are the prospects for business growth? On page 14 of the document, the Treasury says:

“Credit conditions have shown signs of stabilisation”.

That is certainly not the experience of small and medium-sized enterprises: lending to businesses is in an atrocious state. It goes on to say in paragraph 2.43:

“however, credit conditions for smaller firms remain tight”.

That is an exceptional understatement. The Bank of England’s lending report shows that lending to SMEs fell by a further 3% in February. That is echoed by the British Bankers Association’s growth rate statistics on lending to small businesses, which cited a figure of minus 6% in December. So much for the much-vaunted Project Merlin. Yet the mark-ups that small businesses have to pay for loans are widening, and the banks are charging small businesses even more even though less and less lending is available. We have a serious systemic problem with our economy. Underpinning the difficulties with growth are the factors that businesses need in order to fire up the economy, and they are going wrong.

We also have to look at the Government’s failure on employment. Page 84 of the convergence programme document says:

“In line with a weaker outlook for output growth, we expect employment to be lower than forecast in November.”

The OBR predicts that unemployment will go up by 200,000 as a result of the Government’s policies. If each unemployed person costs the Exchequer about £7,800 in welfare costs and lost taxes, that could represent a loss to the Exchequer of more than £1 billion—money that the Exchequer should have coming in that is going the wrong way. In addition, inflation is undermining Government spending plans, as the document admits in terms of VAT fuelling inflation, and it is forecast that borrowing and debt will be higher than predicted in June. As a consequence, the interest that we will need to pay on our borrowing will be higher because of the inflationary costs of social security expenditure.

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[Chris Leslie]

As the hon. Gentleman knows, the paradox of austerity and of an anti-growth strategy is that it costs more in the long run. I quite understand that many Government Members do not understand the causes of the deficit. It is therefore improbable that they are the right people to solve the deficit. If they understood its causes, perhaps I would accept their rationale on how to solve it, but they do not.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

I hope to help my hon. Friend a little. If one makes unemployment go up, fewer people pay taxes, more people depend on benefits and the deficit gets worse, not better. That is precisely what will happen.

[Chris Leslie]

That is precisely the point that we need to make this evening: an austerity approach that cuts too far and too fast will cost more in the long run. That is not just in terms of the lost generation of young people who are now on the dole—one in five young people are now unemployed—and not just in terms of the higher welfare costs, which will mean higher borrowing. The House of Commons Library told me today that if the past six months of the economy had emulated the first six months since the general election, the Exchequer would have received an additional £6 billion in revenues. However, because growth is flat-lining, the Treasury is recouping less revenue. The Chancellor will therefore have to add £6 billion to borrowing and the deficit will be higher as a consequence of low growth in the years ahead.

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[Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)]

I want to speak briefly on this document and to support my hon. Friend the Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie), who sits on the Opposition Front Bench. The Government’s economic policy will drive us into recession. The cuts have not really started yet, and when they do, unemployment will rise, and when unemployment rises, people will lose confidence and stop spending, and we will see a downward spiral into recession. I am convinced of that. I am not the only person saying it. As I have pointed out in the Chamber more than once, Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize-winning economist, has said that the Government are going in precisely the wrong direction. They should be trying to stimulate the economy through additional spending in labour-intensive areas, such as construction and the public sector—but that is the absolute opposite of what they are doing.

If we bring down unemployment, revenues will rise, benefit payments will reduce and the economy will grow, and that will reduce the deficit. I have used this example many times: after the second world war, under Conservative and Labour Governments, we had a gross debt two and a half times GDP—about four times what it is now—but we just maintained a policy of full employment, led by the magnificent Atlee Governments in 1945 and 1951. We had full employment, we created the national health service, living standards rose and we even ran a labour shortage such that people came from abroad to work here because the economy was growing so fast. We ran a growth economy led by public spending. That is what we should be doing now, but we are doing the absolute opposite. If other countries do the same, we will see the 1930s relived, but people have so much more to lose now it will be politically quite dangerous.

There is already a reaction in Europe to what is happening. In Finland, a Government have been elected who are baulking at the idea of bailing out some of the weaker members of the eurozone. I have no idea why we should be bailing out members of the eurozone. Ireland is a special case, because it is our nearest neighbour and effectively part of the sterling-zone economy, not the eurozone economy. We are its major trading partner and we have an exchange of population, so Ireland is a different case from the rest of the EU. For us to be bailing out other countries in the eurozone is complete and total nonsense. The sooner they leave the eurozone, recreate their own currencies and depreciate them, the sooner they will recover.

[Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry) (Con)]

The hon. Gentleman puts a happy and cuddly aura around the old hard-left of the Labour party. Bearing in mind that for years we and other European countries have been reporting to the European Commission on these matters, does he think that the Commission has learned any lessons from the information it has been sent? If it has, why did it not try to help the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and so on?

[Kelvin Hopkins]

I think that the hon. Gentleman and I agree on this point. It has learned absolutely nothing. To try to squeeze the life out of an economy that is already almost wrecked is nonsense. The Commission should allow those economies to grow, and they can grow only if they can recreate and depreciate their own currencies, and start to compete again. Ireland is in a terrible state because it chose—foolishly, I think—to join the euro. I have said to Irish politicians—in as friendly and comradely a way as possible—that they should recreate and depreciate the punt to something like the level of sterling, and rejoin the sterling zone, which is where Ireland belongs. Its economy would then start to recover. Without that, it will not recover.

[Martin Horwood]

I am just curious: who does the hon. Gentleman think would lend those Governments the money to finance that public spending, given their credit ratings at present?

[Kelvin Hopkins]

In the end Governments can print money if they wish to, but the idea that we can squeeze those economies into growth is complete nonsense. We could debate these matters at great length—I would be happy to do so on another occasion—but that is not what this debate is about. I want to focus on the Government’s economic policy, which I think is profoundly mistaken.

Another point in the document is the emphasis on fiscal neutrality. The Government do not seem to appreciate that fiscal neutrality can be achieved in various ways. If we cut public spending and taxation at the same time, that is, in a sense, fiscally neutral. If we raise public spending and taxation, that is also fiscally neutral. We can also achieve fiscal neutrality by raising taxes on the rich and reducing them on the poor. Fiscal neutrality can have all sorts of different effects. If we cut taxes on the rich and raise them on the less well-off, we will drive the economy into recession, because poor people will spend less money. The marginal propensity of the poor to consume is higher, so if we tax the rich and give more to the poor, they will spend. If we give pensioners a rise in their pensions, for example, they will spend more, but if we give a wealthy person a tax cut, they will not spend.

Those are marginal changes, but my general point is that fiscal neutrality can be achieved in various ways. In fact, it is nonsense to have fiscal neutrality when growth is flatlining. We ought to have an expansionary fiscal strategy, not a neutral fiscal strategy. I might add that this is my view, not necessarily the view of my hon. Friends on the Opposition Front Bench. They are perhaps more cautious than me, but in the end I would like to think that I and others will be proved right. We have to generate growth, but it will not happen if the Government continue to operate in the way that they are at the moment.

[Steve Baker (Wycombe) (Con)]

As the hon. Gentleman knows, I have great admiration for him on many subjects, but does he realise that when Keynes was suggesting those fiscal stimulus packages, the state accounted for only about a quarter of GDP, whereas now the figure is up to 45% and getting on for 50%? The capacity is just not there. I would suggest to the hon. Gentleman that even Keynes would be horrified at the notion of Governments spending more from present levels?

[Kelvin Hopkins]

The role of the state is much larger than it was even in Keynes’s day; therefore, the state has to generate more demand. The state has a bigger role in the economy—I think that is a good thing—but we cannot withdraw from the idea of managing economies in the way that we did after the second world war. Between 1945 and the 1970s, we had a world that actually worked. We had rising living standards and the highest rate of growth in our history. We had full employment, we developed a welfare state and the national health service, and we had free tuition at universities. Since then, the neo-liberals and the monetarists have got hold of economic policy again and we have gone back to something like the early 1930s, albeit with higher living standards, at the moment, but that could so easily be destroyed if the current mistakes continue to be made.

[Alec Shelbrooke]

I really do not understand the hon. Gentleman’s rose-tinted view of the 1960s and 1970s. In the 1960s we had to devalue, and by the 1970s inflation and wage inflation were huge, to the point where teachers were given a 25% pay rise in the mid-1970s that was worthless the following year. As for the Keynesian arguments, the new deal in 1930s America failed until the second world war came along and the country could manufacture and lend money to support the war effort. That is what created the recovery. Surely the hon. Gentleman is not suggesting that we need another war to sort out the economy.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

I would advise the hon. Gentleman to read an excellent book by J. K. Galbraith called “The World Economy Since the Wars”. He said that wartime investment in American manufacturing transformed the economy, which emerged as the strongest economy in the world.

We could go into those matters at great length; the point is that it is nonsense to try to deflate our way to growth, as has been said by a number of leading economists. Okay, so they happen to be Keynesians rather than monetarists, but do we want to go back to a world of high unemployment and greater inequality, or do we want to go forward to a world of full employment and greater equality? That is the choice. The Government’s proposed strategy, as set out in the document under discussion, will have a devastating effect on our economy and—they may not be prepared for this—will make them detested and massively unpopular. I remind them that, after the second world war, Labour took office with a massive majority as a result of the working people of Britain rejecting what had happened in the 1930s: the recession and the war. We are in danger of going in that direction again, and the end result would be the election of a Labour Government who would have to pick up the pieces of an economy that had been destroyed.

Even PricewaterhouseCoopers—not a noted left-wing organisation—has suggested that, for every job lost in the public sector, one would also be lost in the private sector, as opposed to the private sector picking up where the public sector left off. Much of the demand in the private sector comes from public sector spending and public investment. We have already seen construction levels falling, with the cancellation of many school building programmes. That will create unemployment in the private sector as well as the public sector, and it is conceivable that unemployment could rise by 1 million. If we had 1 million unemployed, in addition to the 2.5 million that we already have, we would be in very serious economic waters. It would be a terrible time, not just for young people but for the whole economy. We would see falling living standards, mass unemployment and a mass political reaction to what was happening.

I had a different view on this matter from those on my own Front Bench, particularly before the election, when I and a number of Labour comrades rejected the idea of cuts altogether. We believe that dealing with the deficit has to be done by generating growth. After the banking crisis, the Labour Government did exactly the right thing. They pushed demand into the economy by printing money, reducing interest rates almost to zero and recapitalising the banks, all of which had to be done. In fact, the Conservative Government, in their first six months, were living on the growth generated by Labour’s policies—[Interruption.] That is the reality. Now, Conservative policies are kicking in and we are starting to see the economy go down.

I could go on about this at greater length, but others want to speak and this is a short debate. I am happy to come back and talk about these issues time and again if hon. Members wish me to. Indeed, I am happy to discuss them in private as well as in public. I am convinced that the Government have got this wrong, and that Keynesian economists such as Krugman and Stiglitz have got it right. We need to generate growth through public spending and public investment; we do not need to cut.

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[Mr Nuttall]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. As everyone knows, printing money invariably leads to inflation. I am sure that that would be the case if we continued to print money today.

I want to address the issue of our dealings with Europe, but first let us consider our net borrowing figures. According to forecasts from the House of Commons Library produced just a few days ago—on 21 April—even if we take into account all the measures that the Treasury are taking, we will borrow £122 billion in the current financial year and £101 billion next year. We are not paying back our debts; we are simply reducing the scale of the debt.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

I could raise a number of issues, but one in particular is that the Treasury is now predicting that the deficit at the end of this Parliament will be £11 billion higher than it thought a few months ago, simply because it expects the economy to grow less.