Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993
(Limited Text - Ministerial Extracts only)
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The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Mr Mark Hoban)
I beg to move,
That this House takes note with approval of the Government’s assessment as set out in the Budget Report, combined with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which forms the basis of the UK’s Convergence Programme, for the purposes of section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993.
As we look at the economic history of the past decade, we see clearly that economic imbalances create the conditions for recession, and even growth fuelled by imbalances can prove illusory. This Government’s economic programme tackles the imbalances built up under the previous Government, which triggered the deepest recession since the 1930s. As the Chancellor set out in his Budget and as is set out in the convergence programme document before us, growth in the United Kingdom under the previous Government was fuelled by debt. Imbalances arose from the UK’s overreliance on the south-east and the financial services sector, from high levels of Government debt and an over-inflated housing market. The OECD said of the UK that these imbalances
“exacerbated the downturn during the global recession and contributed to a more pronounced fall in GDP, a larger fiscal deficit and higher inflation than in most of the OECD”.
That is the legacy we inherited from the Labour party, which we need to tackle.
As we look across Europe and beyond, we see that we have had to learn the hard way that in an open, global marketplace, no economy exists in isolation: imbalances in individual countries can cause instability on a regional and global basis; the failures of economic policy in one country can be quickly exported to other nations; and unsustainable levels of debt, asset bubbles and uncontrolled deficits can destabilise whole regions through contagion, as we have seen in recent years. In the light of the global and economic crisis, there is increased emphasis on economic surveillance to identify imbalances and take action to deal with them.
Existing surveillance by the International Monetary Fund and the OECD has taken on renewed importance. The IMF has recognised the need to focus on multilateral surveillance and monitoring spill-over effects and systemic risks, and the OECD has recognised the importance of labour markets, housing markets and current account imbalances for strong and sustainable growth. Furthermore, the G20 is looking at countries with large and persistent imbalances to ensure that growth is strong, sustainable and balanced across the world.
In Europe, work to address this has been done through the stability and growth pact. The pact has been around for many years, but in more than a decade of monetary union the sanctions it contains have never been used. The recent proposals to strengthen the stability and growth pact aim to make it more effective. The changes recognise that maintaining economic stability is not just about deficits. Just as the OECD and the IMF are refreshing their approach to macro-economic surveillance, so too is the European Union as it considers a scoreboard of indicators such as labour market flexibility, current account balances and unemployment to ensure that we are alert to risks across Europe.
Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North) (Lab)
The Minister talks about imbalances. We always talk about financial imbalances, but the real imbalances in the European Union are the massive imbalances in trade. Germany has looked after its manufacturing and we have neglected ours under several Governments over the past 30 years. We at least are able to depreciate our currency and to address that to an extent, but there has still been a complete failure by successive Governments to do anything to counter the collapse of manufacturing that began in 1979 when we lost a fifth of it following the election of a Conservative Government.
Mr Hoban
The hon. Gentleman makes an important point. Under the previous Government, we saw a further deterioration in manufacturing and an overreliance on the financial services sector, creating some of the imbalances that led to the deepest recession since the 1930s. Part of the challenge faced by the Government is how to tackle those imbalances and move to a more broadly based economy, and I shall touch on that later in my speech.
We must remember that sustainable economic growth across Europe is vital to the success of the British economy. Having the right warning mechanisms in place, underpinned by sound data, will help to identify future economic crises that could harm the UK economy. Even though we are not part of the single currency and will not be joining it in the lifetime of this Parliament, we cannot consign ourselves to be bystanders in the debate.
Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con)
I noticed the Minister use the expression “we will not be joining the single currency in the lifetime of this Parliament”. I thought there was a clear commitment that we were never going to join the single currency.
Mr Hoban
As I am sure my hon. Friend is aware, I am following what is set out in the coalition agreement. Like him, I do not anticipate that we would seek to join the euro.
Tonight’s debate is a consequence of the stability and growth pact. Since 1999, as a result of the pact, the Government have reported to the Commission on the UK’s economic and budgetary position and our main economic policy measures. I want to reassure the House, however, that the UK is not subject to sanctions under the stability and growth pact—the Treaty is clear that they apply only to euro area countries. The EU can make recommendations as regards our budget, as can other international organisations such as the OECD and the IMF, but, crucially, we are under no obligation to take action and we are not subject to any sanctions by virtue of our opt-out. Any recommendations made will remain just that—recommendations.
Mr James Clappison (Hertsmere) (Con)
My hon. Friend is making a very persuasive case, but on the question of sanctions, may I take it from what he has just said that he is ruling out Britain’s being subject to the economic imbalances procedure set out in the Van Rompuy report?
Mr Hoban
We are not subject to sanctions as a consequence of our opt-out from the single currency. I made that point when we had a debate last year on economic governance, and it continues to be the case now.
The information we are supplying to the Commission in the convergence programme document that we are debating tonight is the first to be provided under the new European semester arrangements. People were concerned that the Commission would receive information before Parliament, but the information provided to the Commission in the document is already public and much of it was provided when the Chancellor made his Budget statement in March.
Mr David Nuttall (Bury North) (Con)
Will the Minister confirm that all the information in the convergence programme document is in the public domain and available to anyone outside the House who wants to gain access to it without the document’s publication?
Mr Hoban
Indeed. If my hon. Friend has studied this carefully, as I am sure he has, he will recognise that large chunks of it are familiar from the Red Book. Of course, chapters 6 onwards are taken from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic and fiscal outlook. This information is in the public domain and Parliament has had sight of it before its presentation to the European Commission.
Mr Ian Davidson (Glasgow South West) (Lab/Co-op)
Will the Minister remind me exactly why we have to produce all this information for the European Union? I have not read it in enormous detail but it seems that Parliament is telling teacher or the boss why we have done what has been done. That places the House of Commons very much in the position of being subordinate to the European Union.
Mr Hoban
I do not agree that Parliament has been placed in a subordinate position. We are passing this information to the European Union having already made it available to the House, particularly during my right hon. Friend the Chancellor’s Budget speech, and there is no requirement on us to accept any recommendations that the Commission might make as a consequence of having read the information. We are in a very different situation to those member states that will provide their convergence programmes at the same time as the UK, but before their Budgets rather than after them.
Martin Horwood (Cheltenham) (LD)
Does the Minister agree that all European economies have a shared interest in there being proper economic governance in all other European economies? Britain therefore clearly has an interest in proper economic management within the eurozone. Indeed, will he go further and welcome the recommendations of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, which pressed for even stronger sanctions against those countries that do not manage their public finances as well as this Government are doing?
Mr Hoban
Of course, sanctions are a matter for the eurozone countries. They do not apply to us, as we are outside the eurozone thanks to the opt-out secured under the Maastricht treaty and reiterated in the Lisbon treaty, so that point is not relevant to tonight’s debate. We have ensured, through our opt-outs and our commitment not to join the euro—this addresses the point raised by the hon. Member for Glasgow South West (Mr Davidson)—that Parliament remains sovereign.
The Commission has endorsed the UK’s domestic consolidation plan, which is laid out in the convergence programme. As a result of the measures the Government have taken, the path set for fiscal policy means that the UK is on course to meet the Commission’s recommendations and deadline for dealing with our excessive deficit. We are not doing this to get a gold star—to use the language of the hon. Member for Glasgow South West’s analogy—from Brussels; we are doing it for the UK’s economic health. The plan will tackle our record deficit, with expenditure falling as a share of income in every year of this Parliament and national debt falling as a proportion of gross domestic product by 2014-15.
For those in opposition who question this approach and who would condemn Britain to years of unaffordable and wasteful expenditure, let us look at the facts. In Britain we have a higher budget deficit than both Portugal and Greece. Last year, we also had a similar level of national debt to Ireland, but our market interest rates are a fraction of those countries’ rates. Greece’s currently stand at more than 14% and Portugal’s at more than 9%, while Ireland’s is approaching 10%. Britain’s market interest rates have fallen to 3.6%, our triple A credit rating has been secured and we have avoided the sovereign debt storm that has engulfed our continent. That is a direct result of the decisive action that we have taken.
Claire Perry (Devizes) (Con)
Does the Minister agree that it is not only the absolute value of interest rates that is important but the spread over countries such as Germany? Indeed, the spread over German bunds for UK sovereigns has dropped by almost two thirds since the election, confirming the validation of this fiscal convergence programme.
Mr Hoban
My hon. Friend makes an important point. Interest rates are low and the spread is narrowing. That is a huge benefit to the British economy. It ensures that mortgage rates for families are kept low and it helps to encourage the economy by reducing the costs faced by businesses that borrow. There is a significant benefit to this country as a consequence of the firm action that we have taken. These actions have shown the world that Britain’s future is now in safe hands, and that this is a Government who know how to manage their finances and who have a credible plan that is delivering stability, certainty and growth.
The independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility has forecast growth in each and every year of this Parliament, with growth of 1.7% forecast for 2011. This is in spite of the rise in world commodity prices and higher than expected inflation. The OBR points out that this effect
“creates scope for slightly stronger growth in later years”
than previously forecast. So although it expects real GDP growth of 2.5% next year, it forecasts that it will then rise to 2.9% in 2013, 2.9% again in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015.
The European Commission last month published its own economic forecasts. These show that the UK will grow more strongly in the coming year than Spain, Italy, France, the average for the eurozone, and the average for the EU.
Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) (Lab/Co-op)
Can the Minister remind the House what the OBR predicted the growth rate would be for the first quarter of 2011? I think it is on page 54 of the convergence programme.
Mr Hoban
I am rather surprised that the hon. Gentleman has not congratulated the Government on taking the tough action that put the recovery on track and made sure that we have lower interest rates than Greece, Ireland and Portugal. That is a consequence of the actions that we have taken—actions that the Opposition would not take. We are tackling the legacy that they left. The problem is that the scale of the legacy is huge. That makes the recovery challenging. Today’s figures demonstrate that we are making good progress on that.
To support the economy and to continue the growth in the private sector, my right hon. Friend the Chancellor set out a new economic strategy as part of this year’s Budget. The strategy has four ambitions at its heart—that Britain will have the most competitive tax system in the G20; that it will be the best place in Europe to start, finance and grow a business; that it will be a more balanced economy, by encouraging exports and investment; and that it will have a more educated work force that is the most flexible in Europe. In pursuit of these objectives, we have announced further cuts to corporation tax, taking it down to 26% this year and 23% by the end of this Parliament.
This is alongside our decision to introduce a highly competitive tax rate on profits derived from patents and our fundamental reform of the complex rules for controlled foreign companies, making them much more territorial and making the UK a much more attractive place for businesses to locate, ensuring that we have a far more attractive tax system than either Germany or France.
This year’s Budget also deals directly with the challenge of education and youth unemployment, which has been rising steadily for the past seven years. Instead of 20,000 young people benefiting from our new work experience scheme, as we originally planned, we will increase that number fivefold to 100,000 places over the next two years. Although in Austria and Germany one in four employers offers apprenticeships, in England fewer than one in 10 does so. That must change.
That is why last year my hon. Friend the Minister for Further Education, Skills and Lifelong Learning published a skills strategy and confirmed the largest ever expansion in adult apprenticeships. At the Budget we committed to funding another 40,000 apprenticeships for young unemployed people. That brings a total of 250,000 more apprenticeships over the next four years, as a result of this Government’s policies. This will help to ensure that all parts of the country have access to a better educated work force.
This year’s Budget will help to create a more balanced economy, tackling the imbalances of the past that undermined the economy and led to the longest and deepest recession since the war. This year’s Budget gives support to the private sector and hope to those looking for work, and will stimulate job creation across Britain.
Mr Cash
One word that the Minister has not mentioned is “deregulation”. In view of the fact that 4% of GDP is lost as a result of European regulation, does he agree that we need to override European regulation, such as the working time directive, when it has the effect of increasing unemployment and preventing businesses from growing?
Mr Hoban
My hon. Friend makes an important point about the burden of regulation on business, and that is why in the Budget my right hon. Friend the Chancellor set out our plans for a moratorium on new regulations for micro-businesses and for start-ups, why the Prime Minister, along with several other European leaders, called for plans to cut the burden of European red tape, and why the Prime Minister has also required José Barroso, the President of the European Commission, to deliver on his commitment to reduce the cost of red tape for business by 25%.
We need to work on those issues to tackle regulation that hampers growth not just here in the UK but throughout Europe, because regulation is a Europe-wide issue. We need to tackle and reduce that burden if the eurozone is to grow at the levels that we expect to see in Asia and in the far east.
As I said to my hon. Friend, this Budget tackles regulation and introduces a moratorium, and that is why it stands firm on our plan for recovery. It is good for business, it is good for growth, and with the approval of the House it will form the basis of the information that we provide to the European Commission. I commend this motion to the House.
Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset) (Con)
I do not know how long I have before we move on to the wind-ups, if indeed we are having them.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
We are not having them, so I have 11 minutes—this is very exciting. Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker for calling me last—it does sometimes happen that the first will come last and the last first.