Defence

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Tuesday 7th May 2024 Commons Chamber

[Grant Shapps]

My hon. Friend has pre-empted a passage a little later in my speech, in which I suggest that those right hon. and hon. Members on the Labour Benches who want to see more money go into defence might first persuade their own Front Benchers to follow our lead and ensure that we get more money into it. I am very concerned about the apparent failure of the Labour party to match our funding commitment. Labour Members are being incredibly evasive about funding. In addition to not confirming whether they will do the 2.5% in the next six years—we look forward to hearing whether they confirm that—they are also promising, or perhaps I should say threatening, a review of defence. Our enemies will waste no time in putting the UK in their sights if they think that the next thing that would happen is a multi-year review—a waste of time and money that should instead be spent on our brave servicemen and women. Labour’s apparent refusal to follow our lead and back our fully funded spending plans would decimate our armed forces by cutting up to £75 billion from defence.

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

Why does the Secretary of State think that Paul Johnson, in an article on Monday 29 April, said:

“What annoyed me was not the commitment…”—

to the 2.5%—

“It was all about the misleading and opaque way in which the additional spending was presented. When it wanted to make it look big, the Government claimed it would boost spending by £75 billion; when it wanted to appear fiscally responsible… It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes, or even the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, to see that there might be something not quite consistent about these claims.”

[Grant Shapps]

The hon. Gentleman will be interested to know that the way this is presented is entirely the usual way for the Treasury to present increases in spending. If I take him back to the previous cash boost for defence—I think it was £24 billion and it was described, I think, as being over five years—it was presented on exactly the same basis, and I do not remember the hon. Gentleman making the same point then. Regardless of the numbers, surely the point is this: will the Labour party commit to this timeline?

Labour Members said that they wanted to get to 2.5%, and that they would do it when conditions allow. We have now said that we know conditions will allow because of the management of the economy. Will they follow us, or will they send their Back Benchers out to criticise an increase, even though their own Front Benchers will not match it themselves? Perhaps we should not be surprised, given that the Leader of the Opposition, not once but twice backed Jeremy Corbyn—sorry, the right hon. Member for Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn)—to be Prime Minister. The Leader of the Opposition proclaims his support for our nuclear deterrent, yet he has stacked his Front Bench with anti-nuclear campaigners—I counted 11 who voted against Trident—while he goes up to Barrow and claims he is all in favour.

--- Later in debate ---

[Grant Shapps]

I will be as diplomatic as possible: the Liberal Democrats asked us to investigate a range of options, and I am very pleased that the one we ended up with was the four-submarine continuous at-sea deterrent.

We are investing £41 billion in our next generation of the Dreadnought fleet, and investing in our replacement UK sovereign nuclear warhead as well.

[Derek Twigg]

The Secretary of State mentioned the Command Paper. Page 89, in paragraph 10, refers to

“protecting ourselves…against attack from the skies”.

We know from what has happened in Ukraine, and more recently in Israel, how important our air defence missile system is. The Command Paper continues:

“To counter these threats, we will step up our efforts to deliver an Integrated Air and Missile Defence approach.”

Can the Secretary of State tell us where we are with that?

[Grant Shapps]

I should point out that there are a wide number of differences for us, because within Nato—this relates to article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty—we are in a different region from, for example, Israel, which was recently attacked. We have a number of layered approaches to defending our skies, including the quick reaction alert. However, the hon. Gentleman will be interested to hear that we are working with our European friends and allies on a European sky shield to do something along the lines of what he has described. It should be understood, however, that there are considerations regardless of which direction we take, because, again, the money can only be spent once, and we would have to consider what else we were or were not going to achieve in defence. So we use a layered approach, but we are actively working on exactly what the Command Paper describes.

--- Later in debate ---

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

We are obviously living in a much more dangerous world and preparing for a potential war in Europe, which might involve our personnel at some point, not least, of course, in the support of Ukraine in her continual fight against Russia and Putin. All this adds up to a very serious situation.

I want to spend a couple of minutes on the point that we need to argue more forcefully for why the defence of our democratic, liberal way of life is so important, whatever shortcomings there might be in democracies. We need to reinforce the central tenets of free speech, liberty and the rule of law, as opposed to the alternative of dictatorship, gangsterism, brutal violence and the suppression of opposition that we have seen in other parts of the world. That is what we have to defend and fight for. We need to get our whole population prepared to play a part in ensuring our security and defending democracy and the basic principles that our great country stands for. There needs to be a change in mindset.

I think the Government and Parliament need to do a lot more to say why we need to spend more on defence and why we need to be prepared to deal with some very challenging situations, and possibly war. That is where we have failed to some extent, so we need to be much more up front with the British people. We know the threats and potential threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and the destabilising activities going on in the middle east and parts of Africa at the moment by some of those countries, and they are causing serious concerns. This is why we need to set out to the British public why defence needs to be properly funded and our armed forces supported in a much more systematic way. We did know Russia’s intentions, and its intentions in invading Crimea in 2014 clearly told us that times had changed. We thought that had all disappeared with the cold war, but it had not. However, we did not prepare for this, having cut spending, and we must be prepared to provide the resources needed for our armed forces, because if we want to maintain peace, we have to do so from a position of strength.

The first duty of Government is to defend the security of our country, and I want to look at this Government’s record. The path pursued over the past 14 years has led to a weakening of the capability of our armed forces to warfight over a sustained period, and of course of their resilience. We have heard from the previous Secretary of State, the right hon. Member for Wyre and Preston North (Mr Wallace), about the “hollowing out” of our armed forces, and we could not even put a warfighting division in the field at present. The Government’s failure to properly fund and the decision to cut the size of our armed forces, as well as the failure to stem the outflow from the armed forces and a defence procurement system that is broken, are putting the security of this country at risk and not preparing us for the threats, some of which I have outlined. If peace remains our goal, and it must be, we must be prepared to buy those resources.

Figures have been provided to me by the House of Commons Library. We have heard about cuts in defence expenditure during the coalition Government, but if we look at the whole period from 2010-11 to 2023-24, in both cash and real terms, the House of Commons Library figures show that spending has fallen by 1.2% at 2023-24 prices. So over the period of this Government, the record is that defence funding has actually fallen, no matter what they are doing now. It is just by coincidence that there is a general election coming up, and they have suddenly committed to a 2.5% increase.

Aside from the £3 billion that the Government have committed to military support for Ukraine, it is not clear exactly what the additional £5.4 billion of funding represents, because it has not yet been approved by Parliament or listed in any detail. On defence equipment, the increase in planned spending has been outstripped by a £65.7 billion—27%—rise in forecasted costs, which totalled £305.5 billion as of March 2023. This equates to a £19.6 billion funding shortfall based on central estimates, although the MOD estimates that the true shortfall could range from £7.6 billion to £29.8 billion if all the risks materialise. The National Audit Office scrutinises the equipment plan and publishes its own report alongside the MOD’s, and in recent years the NAO has assessed successive plans—I stress, successive plans—to be unaffordable.

I want to go into the size of the armed forces and the cuts that are taking place. Between January 2010 and January 2024, the size of the full-time UK armed forces decreased by around 50,000 personnel. The Army is now at its smallest, as some have said, since the Napoleonic wars. Both the RAF and the Royal Navy/Royal Marines are below target, by around 3,000 personnel and 1,500 personnel respectively.

The House of Commons Library has sent me a note on UK defence personnel, and it sets out that, in 2023, there was a 1% reduction in the number of personnel leaving the UK regular forces compared with the previous year, but there was also an 8% reduction in the number of people joining the armed forces. Overall, there was a negative flow of personnel, with 5,460 more personnel leaving the forces than joining. This compares with a net increase of 4,660 personnel in 2022. Voluntary outflow accounted for 60% of trained outflow from UK regular forces in 2023. The voluntary outflow rate is the number of trained personnel voluntarily leaving as a proportion of the average trained strength in the period. In 2023, the voluntary outflow rate was 6.4%, up from 6% in 2022. In its commentary published alongside the personnel statistics, the MOD says:

“There is no single reason why personnel leave on Voluntary Outflow, but the personnel who completed the Armed Forces Continuous Attitude Survey indicated reasons for leaving the Armed Forces included the impact of Service life on family and personal life and opportunities outside the Armed Forces.”

Again, the Government have no real plan to address this really challenging problem.

I want to refer briefly to the state of the reserve forces, which is a really serious concern at the moment, particularly where we get specialist grades coming into the reserve forces from civilian life. We have a real problem with recruiting and retaining those reserve forces. In January 2024 the total trained and untrained strength of UK reserve forces was 32,650—a decrease of 665 personnel, or minus 4.9%, compared with the year before. Outflow was higher than inflow for Army, maritime and RAF reserve forces in 2023. The number of reserve personnel continued to decline from a peak of around 37,400 in April 2021.

I know that the Minister has previously been questioned about this issue by my right hon. and hon. Friends, but we cannot get the information about pinch point grades that used to be available. Those are the specialist grades that are so important to maintaining the sustainability, competency and fighting power of the armed forces, and we are still trying to get more information about them. The Armed Forces Pay Review Body said in a 2023 report that

“there could be insufficient personnel with the right skills to deliver the outputs envisaged by the Integrated Review. We would welcome more data from MOD relating to these pinch point areas and what interventions MOD is planning to employ to address the issues.”

We in this House would welcome that data as well.

Our armed forces are running hot and being asked to do ever more without the resources they need. Resilience is a growing concern, not just for personnel, but for the ability to maintain and replenish losses in a Navy and Air Force that are much smaller in terms of ships and aircraft. The Defence Committee’s “Ready for War?” report said:

“It is a matter of national pride that whenever the Armed Forces are asked to carry out a task, they will find a way. It is to the credit of the Armed Forces that they have sustained this effort for so long. But overtasking has both a personal cost for service personnel and an opportunity cost for the UK. The increase in global instability has coincided with a period of decreasing recruitment and reduced industrial capacity, which requires sustained, long-term investment. The Government risks being unable to build true warfighting and strategic readiness because of the sheer pace of operations, which could threaten the security of the UK.”

We cannot continue like this. As I have said, we live in a dangerous and increasingly unstable world, and we need to move quickly to 2.5% of GDP being spent on defence. The Government have still not set out how they intend to get there: they have not given the details, and the figures they have quoted so far have been rubbished by independent analysis, as we have already seen. The fact remains that over the past 15 years this Government have put our security at risk through their underfunding of the armed forces and their cutting of personnel. That is another reason why the current Prime Minister and this Government need to go.

Defence Personnel Data Breach

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Tuesday 7th May 2024 Commons Chamber

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

When did the MOD last carry out an audit or review of the security precautions put in place to stop a cyber-attack with this contractor, if it did at all?

[Grant Shapps]

I can tell the House that, specifically for the MOD estate, we do that all the time—every day. With regard to this particular contract, I am aware that we have been in contact with the contractor about its cyber-security arrangements. For the purposes of national security, I cannot go into detail in the House, but I can perhaps provide the hon. Gentleman with a little further context separately, if that is helpful.

UK Armed Forces in Middle East

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Monday 29th April 2024 Commons Chamber

[Leo Docherty]

My right hon. Friend is right: the answers to the humanitarian and political challenges in the region lie within the region. I entirely agree with his analysis. He made a relevant and good point about the requirement for us to maintain focus on our efforts to support our Ukrainian friends in defending their sovereignty. That is why last week we announced an additional uplift in our annual support for Ukraine to the tune of £500 million, bringing this year’s support to £3 billion—a record amount.

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

From our work on the Defence Committee, I know that the armed forces are running hot. Obviously, the events in the middle east over the last six months or so have put much greater strain and pressure on our armed forces. What is the Minister doing to ensure that our armed forces get proper rest and recuperation, and that we improve the resilience of our assets?

[Leo Docherty]

We are increasing funding for defence to record levels, which increases the armed forces’ capacity to train, rest, and attend to all the areas of their lives other than operations. That is a huge vote of confidence in the esprit de corps of our armed forces. We are taking defence investment to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. It is a tremendous boost, which will filter down and improve retention and effectiveness right across the board.

Defence Spending

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Wednesday 24th April 2024 Commons Chamber

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

Can I ask the Secretary of State what he believes a war footing is?

[Grant Shapps]

Very simply, Ukraine has taught the world a great deal about this. When it comes to, for instance, producing sufficient munitions to restock the Ukrainians’ supply, it is very difficult—in fact, impossible—to do that instantaneously. When there is global competition for 155s or other missiles, we want to ensure that our own industrial defence estate is able to produce such items by telling those in the industry that they are on a war footing. By putting in £75 billion more and, critically, naming the date by which we will get there, we will put them on that war footing.

UK Armed Forces

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Monday 11th March 2024 Commons Chamber

[James Cartlidge]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend, who always speaks with such expertise on defence matters. First, on 2.5% being tepid, we have to be able to sustain that. If it was a one-off, the Army, the Navy and the Air Force would not be able to plan accordingly. It has to be an investment that we can sustain and, thereby, the economy of the country has to be able to sustain it. Forgive me for sounding like I am still in my previous job at the Treasury, but the country has to be able to afford it, and we need to be prudent in the commitments we make on public expenditure, not least so that they are sustainable in the long term and not a one-off, which would be the worst thing we could do.

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

The Minister keeps saying we should not talk down our armed forces, but we are not; the armed forces are doing a splendid, brilliant job. What we are doing is running down what the Government are doing, which is not enough—let us put it that way. We have the greatest threat since the cold war. We have war in Ukraine, the middle east in disarray and China increasing its spending. The real blame for the situation with defence lies with the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Does the Minister think, in these circumstances, that most reasonable people would have thought it okay not to put extra resources in the Budget for defence?

[James Cartlidge]

When the Prime Minister was Chancellor, he oversaw the biggest increase in spending since the cold war. The current Chancellor significantly increased defence spending in the previous Budget for the years ahead. We are not cutting defence spending. As I said, if the hon. Gentleman takes the figures in totality, it will rise by 1.8% in real terms. If we spend what we expect to next year, we will spend 2.3% of GDP on defence—around £55.6 billion.

Situation in the Red Sea

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Monday 26th February 2024 Commons Chamber

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

I put to the Secretary of State a similar question to the one that I put to the Prime Minister on 23 January: of course we want a diplomatic solution—any ramping up of a military solution has its consequences—but for how many more months are the Secretary of State and the Government going to allow this to continue? Do the Government and the allies have a plan B?

[Grant Shapps]

Of course, the whole world is working on the overall context of the middle east. I know the hon. Gentleman will have seen the reports over the weekend about the discussions taking place in relation to the hostages. We want a comprehensive settlement; the Government’s policy is, of course, a two-state solution. The middle east could be normalised in many ways, including through Saudi normalisation with Israel, as part of that broader package; the Government are working proactively on this. As I said, I am conscious that we should not link these thuggish pirates—

[Derek Twigg]

indicated dissent.

[Grant Shapps]

I am not saying the hon. Gentleman does that, but I am keen that we do not see the two issues as inextricably linked. I accept that the hon. Gentleman is not trying to do that. We are working very hard on the wider solution.

Oral Answers to Questions

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Monday 8th January 2024 Commons Chamber

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

Despite the answer the Minister gave to the hon. Member for Colchester (Will Quince), the fact remains that this year retention and recruitment into the armed forces is becoming a serious crisis. What is the current difference between intake and outflow for the three services?

[Dr Murrison]

I am more than happy to write to the hon. Gentleman with the detailed breakdown per service, broken down into regulars and reserves. He is right to point out that right across the western world there is a crisis in retention and recruitment into the armed forces, but I hope that the measures that I described in answer to earlier questions indicate how we are trying to address that, not least by increasing the pay to members of our armed forces, especially the most junior.

Global Combat Air Programme Treaty

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Monday 18th December 2023 Commons Chamber

[Grant Shapps]

Mr Speaker, they speak so highly of my right hon. Friend in Japan that I heard of little else while I was there last week. I am very grateful for his work in helping to ensure that the GCAP treaty came to the conclusion that it did last week. He asks about the three principles. They are not in Japanese law, but relate to its Cabinet, and they determine where and how things from the defence world can be exported. When I was in Japan last week, I made it very clear that, in no small part to help the programme to operate successfully, changes to the three principles were likely to be needed, in just the same way that, for AUKUS, Congress needs to make changes to allow exports to happen between the UK and Australia. It is a very similar situation in Tokyo and I did gently persuade my opposite number that that will need to be taken care of.

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

I welcome the statement and the treaty set out by the Secretary of State. One key problem with procuring new assets and equipment is that once it is specified, lots of changes come in further down the line and the costs shoot up. Given his discussions, has he set a date for when this asset will be specified? What safeguards has he put in place to ensure that it is not continually changed, therefore delaying the project further and adding extra costs?

[Grant Shapps]

The hon. Gentleman will be interested to hear that a huge amount of work has been done. On Thursday in Tokyo, we received yet another update from the industry consortium that has been working on the specifics of both the concept behind the joint venture and the different aspects of the aircraft’s performance. It is not yet known in detail exactly what those will be. The technology is so cutting edge that, as he knows, part of the programme is R&D. That will be an iterative programme.

The hon. Gentleman’s central point is absolutely right: the single greatest danger is mission creep that keeps adding on new facilities. One thing that we, as the UK, will be saying is, “Let’s get the aircraft flying and stable as a valuable asset, and then let it iterate or spiral over a period of time once it is in service.”

Middle East: UK Military Deployments

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Tuesday 5th December 2023 Commons Chamber

[Grant Shapps]

My right hon. Friend is an expert on these matters, and he is right: there has to be an international outcome to this, and a solution. I am afraid that in recent decades there has not been sufficient global focus on a two-state solution because it seemed to be an unsolvable problem, and it has slipped into the background. My right hon. Friend is also right to say that there must be a global coalition which will need to include Arab states. A huge amount of work is being undertaken for what some people call “the day after”.

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

May I ask a slightly wider question? What are the Government doing specifically to prevent escalation and promote regional stability?

[Grant Shapps]

I think that if on 7 October we had projected forward eight weeks and known what we know now, we would have been very concerned about this leading to a widescale regional escalation. It is a credit to the United Kingdom and the professionalism of our services that, after the United States, we have deployed the most military assistance to the area. I have been told by a fair number of the Arab states that they appreciate the deterrent that that has placed on Iran and its many proxies in the area. Certainly the fact that eight weeks later we have not seen that expand is a credit to the British laydown.

Oral Answers to Questions

Derek Twigg Excerpts

Monday 20th November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Grant Shapps]

My right hon. Friend is right that the UK has led, and we must continue to do so. I have visited Ukraine twice this year, I hosted a Ukrainian family for a year in my own home, and the Government have set up the British-led international fund for Ukraine, which is on its way to delivering, I think, nearly £800 million of support. We have also been first with tanks, with ammunition, with long-range missiles and with permissions, and we intend to be first with this war going forward.

[Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab)]

It is vital that we continue to give military aid to Ukraine and to show our steadfast support and leadership in Europe. Has the Secretary of State had a chance, since he came into office, to meet with representatives of the defence industry to talk about how we maintain that level of military aid to Ukraine and, if he has had such a meeting, what was the outcome?

[Grant Shapps]

Yes, on several occasions, including in Kyiv and, more recently, last Thursday at the MOD, where I met with large, medium and small defence companies to discuss exactly that issue. There are a whole range of measures in place to increase the amount of arms, particularly arms replenishment, that can come through via UK companies. Having supported Ukraine from the beginning, we must support them all the way through to the end, and we intend to do so.