Foreign Affairs Committee
Monday 19th October 2026
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13:35
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Thank you very much. As the Foreign Affairs Committee, we've been following the situation in Cuba, and especially the impact on the citizens of Cuba very closely. So we're we're really delighted that you could come to to this session and that this is public so that more will be known, I hope, by the British people about what's happening in Cuba right now. I'm Fleur, I'm a Labour member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and my questions are for Rory and Catherine especially, which are what's the what's the current situation? How stable is the current Cuban government? Are there signs of internal political fracturing and what are the most plausible scenarios over the next 12 months?
What's most likely to happen? So, Rory, can I come to you first?
What's most likely to happen? So, Rory, can I come to you first?
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
So you I believe you're living in Havana at the moment. And so you've got that insight. I think we were we're very interested to know kind of what is the short term future for Cuba. And obviously, that the what's happening on the streets is an important part of that. I imagine we will be asking some detailed questions about the humanitarian situation as well. So don't worry, we will have an opportunity to talk about all of it. But I suppose we're really beginning with the politics.
13:37
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Okay, if you want to. Yes. The politics at the moment is that it's very difficult to talk about the politics, because there's about 40% of the Cuban population that now has absolutely nothing. They're often elderly, they have no one abroad, and they're trying to live on pensions or state salaries reduced by hyperinflation to the equivalent of £5 a month. Wow. I see them on the street all the time. They're trying to maintain. Some of them are trying to maintain their dignity. They try to sell you knickknacks from their houses, or they just straightforwardly beg or go through the huge piles of rubbish that have appeared.
Now, these politically, these are the people, often the people who built this revolution. Having listened to Che Guevara's great plea injunction to give up their personal ambitions and return in return for cradle to grave health care work, roof over their heads and a ration of food. But the bodegas where they used to get those rations of rice, cooking oil, chicken and sugar have emptied. These are are being forgotten, and they're relying on a very faltering family assistance system. And church food banks. There is another 40% or so who get money from family abroad. And then there is a 20% of the population who either work for or own a group of.
These are small to medium sized enterprises. They were allowed in 2021 by the government that was dealing with hyperinflation and trying to change the economy, and those people are becoming incredibly rich, the owners. So there's a lot of them. I saw my first Range Rover, I saw my first Porsche, but you see a lot of shiny Dodge Rams and BMW s, and they support with workers about 20% of the population. They import a lot of food, but they also do a lot of things like like sort of they organize now intercity transport. They, they, there's companies opening up that look after the elderly, but for the 40%, they're in real trouble.
And the government, which is struggling under this eight, nine month old oil blockade, is struggling to do anything for them. And within the government itself. Now, I've covered countries for all I mean, all across the world. And the Cuban government remains the most opaque government I've ever, ever dealt with. So if anyone I think after nine years of living here full time, if anyone tells you whether it be a diplomat or a business person or a journalist, that they know what's happening within the government, I would be very, very wary of believing them. However, it's clearly now quite factional.
There has been huge attempts by the US government to break it open, and there are other people who are supporting those super rich new new Mapimi.
Now, these politically, these are the people, often the people who built this revolution. Having listened to Che Guevara's great plea injunction to give up their personal ambitions and return in return for cradle to grave health care work, roof over their heads and a ration of food. But the bodegas where they used to get those rations of rice, cooking oil, chicken and sugar have emptied. These are are being forgotten, and they're relying on a very faltering family assistance system. And church food banks. There is another 40% or so who get money from family abroad. And then there is a 20% of the population who either work for or own a group of.
These are small to medium sized enterprises. They were allowed in 2021 by the government that was dealing with hyperinflation and trying to change the economy, and those people are becoming incredibly rich, the owners. So there's a lot of them. I saw my first Range Rover, I saw my first Porsche, but you see a lot of shiny Dodge Rams and BMW s, and they support with workers about 20% of the population. They import a lot of food, but they also do a lot of things like like sort of they organize now intercity transport. They, they, there's companies opening up that look after the elderly, but for the 40%, they're in real trouble.
And the government, which is struggling under this eight, nine month old oil blockade, is struggling to do anything for them. And within the government itself. Now, I've covered countries for all I mean, all across the world. And the Cuban government remains the most opaque government I've ever, ever dealt with. So if anyone I think after nine years of living here full time, if anyone tells you whether it be a diplomat or a business person or a journalist, that they know what's happening within the government, I would be very, very wary of believing them. However, it's clearly now quite factional.
There has been huge attempts by the US government to break it open, and there are other people who are supporting those super rich new new Mapimi.
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
And of course, I should also mention there's 2 million people have moved abroad since 2021. I have a four year old son, a half Cuban, and people, the old people approach him on the street. They're like zombies because they're aching for children, their owner abroad, and to quote a friend, they're watching their grandchildren grow up on screen, often speaking another language. Yeah, doctors and state salaries. So if you go to a hospital now, you have to take a present, a regalito, to get you through the door. And most people don't feel bad about that because they understand the situation.
Same goes for teachers. You need to start paying teachers to get the education system is collapsing where once you know. As you will know, I'm sure many of you have visited Cuba. It used to be paramount. Many people now dismiss it. You finish school, you face a choice of seven years at university to train to be a doctor, only earn to only to earn £5 a month, or else you can go and work from earn 20 times that immediately. It's a very easy decision to quote another panelist who I know well, Catherine, there's almost an anti-intellectual feeling now, a lot piles of rubbish everywhere.
Communities are beginning to organize, but pay me to get rid of it. My wife's 95 year old grandfather has a pile so high outside his house that I barely can get to the door. The flies are terrible. Crime is burgeoning. Cuba used to be one of the safest places anywhere. Telegraph listed it in 2022 as the best Caribbean island to visit. That's only a few years ago. I don't want to overstate it. It's not Rio, but muggings. House car break ins are commonplace. Last week, the famous singer Ray Fernandez was violently attacked outside his house.
And of course, there's the blackouts friend and Orient last week at the other end of the island. As you will know, Cuba is the length of Britain. These people don't even talk about electricity more. There is so at the moment there's so little of it. It's like any other very poor country, he said. And of course, it didn't used to be like that. The bank pots and pans you may have heard about that has stopped in Havana. I just want to talk one last thing. Water is now so irregular. There's a new breed of street.
Hawker has appeared , selling big tanks, selling from big tanks that they push on trolleys that, as you can imagine, is potentially catastrophe catastrophic. So that brings me to the largest fear here, which is disease. The classics are all enjoying a resurgent dengue, which I'm currently recovering from for the second time Zika, chikungunya, which means in Tanzanian, Makonde contorted and it's as much fun as it sounds. But now we have waterborne nightmares. Hepatitis A is everywhere. Diarrhea is common, dysentery is about. And I think cholera is an increasing possibility. And I would say that I wonder if an outbreak of something that really kills people will bring this hellish year and potentially this revolution to an end.
Now, I'll let Katrin take over on the politics. I can talk about.
Same goes for teachers. You need to start paying teachers to get the education system is collapsing where once you know. As you will know, I'm sure many of you have visited Cuba. It used to be paramount. Many people now dismiss it. You finish school, you face a choice of seven years at university to train to be a doctor, only earn to only to earn £5 a month, or else you can go and work from earn 20 times that immediately. It's a very easy decision to quote another panelist who I know well, Catherine, there's almost an anti-intellectual feeling now, a lot piles of rubbish everywhere.
Communities are beginning to organize, but pay me to get rid of it. My wife's 95 year old grandfather has a pile so high outside his house that I barely can get to the door. The flies are terrible. Crime is burgeoning. Cuba used to be one of the safest places anywhere. Telegraph listed it in 2022 as the best Caribbean island to visit. That's only a few years ago. I don't want to overstate it. It's not Rio, but muggings. House car break ins are commonplace. Last week, the famous singer Ray Fernandez was violently attacked outside his house.
And of course, there's the blackouts friend and Orient last week at the other end of the island. As you will know, Cuba is the length of Britain. These people don't even talk about electricity more. There is so at the moment there's so little of it. It's like any other very poor country, he said. And of course, it didn't used to be like that. The bank pots and pans you may have heard about that has stopped in Havana. I just want to talk one last thing. Water is now so irregular. There's a new breed of street.
Hawker has appeared , selling big tanks, selling from big tanks that they push on trolleys that, as you can imagine, is potentially catastrophe catastrophic. So that brings me to the largest fear here, which is disease. The classics are all enjoying a resurgent dengue, which I'm currently recovering from for the second time Zika, chikungunya, which means in Tanzanian, Makonde contorted and it's as much fun as it sounds. But now we have waterborne nightmares. Hepatitis A is everywhere. Diarrhea is common, dysentery is about. And I think cholera is an increasing possibility. And I would say that I wonder if an outbreak of something that really kills people will bring this hellish year and potentially this revolution to an end.
Now, I'll let Katrin take over on the politics. I can talk about.
13:45
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
The well, I think I think actually, Rory, I mean, given that you've you've begun in the way that you have with the very powerful testimony, I mean, with the with the agreement of the committee, I think we'll we'll move on to humanitarian and then come back to the politics afterwards, if that's all right. Not least, I think because Lina needs to to leave in half an hour. So it might be worth. Do you mind? Yes, we'll do that.
13:45
Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Okay. So, Katrin, we will come back to you. Lina, can I just ask you about the current humanitarian situation there? Following on from hearing about that situation, what is the current situation? What's your access? What are the sectors that are most under strain? We heard about the health and education and water impacts. What what what are the numbers behind it as well with the World Food Programme. What what are you doing and and what where's what's the future looking like for the humanitarian program as well? And where are you getting most of your funding from?
Are you getting enough from the international community for funding?
Are you getting enough from the international community for funding?
13:46
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Okay, thank you so much. And just to say so, the World Food Programme has been present in Cuba since 1963. We have an office in Havana where we have people placed in the provinces as well, and we are working right now with a programme that is about $35 million a year. We've so far been able to reach 1.5 million people in 2026. But no , echoing a bit of what was said by the previous speaker, it's clear that the humanitarian situation is worsening, and this, of course, is shaped both by long standing structural challenges and external pressures.
So the economic decline, the hyperinflation, which was mentioned, these very severe fuel fuel shortages and the power cuts, which is of course impacting food security, which is what World Food Programme focuses and, and really all dimensions of food security. So food availability, Cuba normally imports about 80 to 85% of its food. And right now it's challenged to do so. The local production, the domestic production is of course also constrained. You need fuel to run the irrigation systems to to operate tractors, etc. so food is increasingly scarce and increasingly expensive. The social protection system is is under pressure.
Obviously, the Libreta system, which used to provide food commodities for the whole population under universal Social Protection scheme, is now really moving to targeted assistance only for vulnerable people as they're not able to to provide sufficient food for everybody. When I was there in June, I heard that there was only rice being distributed through the Libreta system at that time. No oil, no chicken, none of the other commodities that were mentioned by the previous speaker. And this is, of course, hitting those that are most vulnerable. So elderly people who rely on a very small pension, about $4,000, children, women who are pregnant, who are breastfeeding.
People with disabilities or people with chronic illnesses. In July, the authorities had identified around 876,000 vulnerable people that they said were in particular need of support, and 94% of those reported food insecurity and coping and use of negative coping strategies, meaning that they they start cutting down meals, that they're eating a poorer diet, that they start selling off their assets to try to get get money. Because these private markets that people are increasingly relying on, of course, a lot of the food there is out of reach economically for people that rely on the state salaries or that have the pensions.
An example to to give you a sort of sense of what you could buy with a 6000, which is like an average salary, is about a carton of eggs and a bottle of oil for the whole month. So that's obviously insufficient for, for a family. What we're also seeing is that supply chains are extremely concerned with containers of of food, medicines and other essential goods reportedly stranded in nearby ports and coming in with late schedules to the country concerns.
So the economic decline, the hyperinflation, which was mentioned, these very severe fuel fuel shortages and the power cuts, which is of course impacting food security, which is what World Food Programme focuses and, and really all dimensions of food security. So food availability, Cuba normally imports about 80 to 85% of its food. And right now it's challenged to do so. The local production, the domestic production is of course also constrained. You need fuel to run the irrigation systems to to operate tractors, etc. so food is increasingly scarce and increasingly expensive. The social protection system is is under pressure.
Obviously, the Libreta system, which used to provide food commodities for the whole population under universal Social Protection scheme, is now really moving to targeted assistance only for vulnerable people as they're not able to to provide sufficient food for everybody. When I was there in June, I heard that there was only rice being distributed through the Libreta system at that time. No oil, no chicken, none of the other commodities that were mentioned by the previous speaker. And this is, of course, hitting those that are most vulnerable. So elderly people who rely on a very small pension, about $4,000, children, women who are pregnant, who are breastfeeding.
People with disabilities or people with chronic illnesses. In July, the authorities had identified around 876,000 vulnerable people that they said were in particular need of support, and 94% of those reported food insecurity and coping and use of negative coping strategies, meaning that they they start cutting down meals, that they're eating a poorer diet, that they start selling off their assets to try to get get money. Because these private markets that people are increasingly relying on, of course, a lot of the food there is out of reach economically for people that rely on the state salaries or that have the pensions.
An example to to give you a sort of sense of what you could buy with a 6000, which is like an average salary, is about a carton of eggs and a bottle of oil for the whole month. So that's obviously insufficient for, for a family. What we're also seeing is that supply chains are extremely concerned with containers of of food, medicines and other essential goods reportedly stranded in nearby ports and coming in with late schedules to the country concerns.
13:49
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Sorry to interrupt you. So just specifically from the World Food Organization, do you have do you do you are you responsible for coordinating food coming into the country, or do you send food in directly yourself? And what is your experience therefore, directly as an organisation of potentially getting food to the country but not being able to, to distribute it within the country?
13:50
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
So it's an issue that is challenging both to get the food into the country, even though humanitarian food is exempt from from sanctions over compliance with with regulations sometimes means that shipping disruptions occur and there are severe delays in getting the food in once it's in the country, of course, you need to distribute it out to the provinces. And that is, of course, more challenging these days given the fuel shortages. We do continue to operate. Like I said, the World Food Programme has this year already reached 1.5 million people with food assistance, and we're also providing fuel and logistics services for other UN agencies and humanitarian organizations in the country to ensure that we reach it.
But it's slower, it's more difficult. It's more expensive to do so these days.
But it's slower, it's more difficult. It's more expensive to do so these days.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Well, all across the country, the challenges are great. Eastern Cuba is, of course, still recovering from Hurricane Melissa last year, which was a terrible blow to to people and their food security and destroyed 200,000 plus homes and schools and health institutions, Camagüey, Villa Clara or other areas that we understand are increasingly in need from what we see in our monitoring, because like I said, we have people that are based in the provinces and that continue to go out and monitor the work that we do there. So those are some areas that we're particularly concerned about.
You had asked a question about the support that we have. Like I mentioned, the World Food Programme's program is about $35 million a year. Right now, we're facing a gap of about $10 million for this year. We have a broad range of partners Republic of Korea, Sweden, United Kingdom supported us for the response to Hurricane Melissa last year. So thank you for that. Canada, Russia, Italy, Luxembourg, the European Union, echo, Spain, many other partners that are working with us to, to be able to, to get the support to the families in need. So we are continuing to operate.
But like I said, the it is more challenging these days given the constraints both on getting the food into the country and then distributing it there. And of course, for the families, you know, the power cuts really are also impacting their ability to keep the food safe. Storing food in refrigerators when you have a 50 hour power cut, obviously is is a health concern. The there was a comment made also about water being increasingly scarce. And this, of course, has many health implications and and impacts your the food safety. We're seeing how families are increasingly trying to make food at home.
The most recent thing that I discussed with my colleagues in in Cuba was about how they're now starting to make homemade cooking oil. But of course, this also then has some food safety concerns when you're trying to, to produce food like that at home. I think those were the main questions in terms of the future. I mean, right now, we don't see in the short term any particular change to the situation. We do expect that unless there is any change in the fuel access and the ability to to import the food, we will see an increase, significant increase in humanitarian needs of people needing the support.
What we really have been urging partners is to use diplomatic channels to support humanitarian exemptions, to facilitate humanitarian imports and encourage cooperation that's really aimed at protecting the most vulnerable people the elderly people, the women, the children that I mentioned earlier. Of course, the availability of resources of sufficient funding to cover the $10 million gap that I mentioned before is is incredibly important, and particularly also this year, because it is worth mentioning that like many countries in the world, Cuba is already feeling the effect of El Nino with increasing drought across the country, which of course will also impact domestic food production and hence food security of, of, of the Cuban people.
So there's a need to strengthen preparedness and contingency planning. Also in anticipation of the impact of El Nino. If there's one thing that's been positive this year is that the hurricane season has been calmer than last year. We haven't had a major incident like Hurricane Melissa, which occurred almost to the day now a year ago. And I think that El Nino conditions will keep it like that. But of course, the drought and then potentially stronger storms next year is, is what we're really seeing on the the horizon.
You had asked a question about the support that we have. Like I mentioned, the World Food Programme's program is about $35 million a year. Right now, we're facing a gap of about $10 million for this year. We have a broad range of partners Republic of Korea, Sweden, United Kingdom supported us for the response to Hurricane Melissa last year. So thank you for that. Canada, Russia, Italy, Luxembourg, the European Union, echo, Spain, many other partners that are working with us to, to be able to, to get the support to the families in need. So we are continuing to operate.
But like I said, the it is more challenging these days given the constraints both on getting the food into the country and then distributing it there. And of course, for the families, you know, the power cuts really are also impacting their ability to keep the food safe. Storing food in refrigerators when you have a 50 hour power cut, obviously is is a health concern. The there was a comment made also about water being increasingly scarce. And this, of course, has many health implications and and impacts your the food safety. We're seeing how families are increasingly trying to make food at home.
The most recent thing that I discussed with my colleagues in in Cuba was about how they're now starting to make homemade cooking oil. But of course, this also then has some food safety concerns when you're trying to, to produce food like that at home. I think those were the main questions in terms of the future. I mean, right now, we don't see in the short term any particular change to the situation. We do expect that unless there is any change in the fuel access and the ability to to import the food, we will see an increase, significant increase in humanitarian needs of people needing the support.
What we really have been urging partners is to use diplomatic channels to support humanitarian exemptions, to facilitate humanitarian imports and encourage cooperation that's really aimed at protecting the most vulnerable people the elderly people, the women, the children that I mentioned earlier. Of course, the availability of resources of sufficient funding to cover the $10 million gap that I mentioned before is is incredibly important, and particularly also this year, because it is worth mentioning that like many countries in the world, Cuba is already feeling the effect of El Nino with increasing drought across the country, which of course will also impact domestic food production and hence food security of, of, of the Cuban people.
So there's a need to strengthen preparedness and contingency planning. Also in anticipation of the impact of El Nino. If there's one thing that's been positive this year is that the hurricane season has been calmer than last year. We haven't had a major incident like Hurricane Melissa, which occurred almost to the day now a year ago. And I think that El Nino conditions will keep it like that. But of course, the drought and then potentially stronger storms next year is, is what we're really seeing on the the horizon.
13:55
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Can I just ask you just, just, just with your World Food Organization hat on? And I've heard you saying that what you'd like from, from, from countries, and I assume that includes Britain is assistance to make it easier to get humanitarian aid into Cuba and to and to stop the, the red tape that's being put that's being put in its way and to facilitate easier movement of aid to the most vulnerable. So that's one thing. Is there is there another? And you said, you know, that the UK had given assistance to the World Food Organization for Cuba in after after Hurricane Melissa, is Britain giving any assistance to the World Food Organization at the moment to assist Cuba?
And if not, should they.
And if not, should they.
13:56
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
So the support we received from Hurricane Melissa last year, which was a 1 million is has been implemented over the past few months. So it is an open call for resources to continue supporting the people in Cuba. But we did receive this generous contribution from the UK last year. Like I said, we still have a $10 million gap. So more resources are of course urged from all our partners, both for the food provision, but also to support what WFP is doing in terms of facilitating logistics services, including fuel provisions to other agencies, because obviously, this is also challenging in the health sector, like water and sanitation, as we discussed.
So it is important that we continue being able to support all the needs of the Cuban population, not just food.
So it is important that we continue being able to support all the needs of the Cuban population, not just food.
13:57
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Okay. I just I'm just going to just going to just say that we've been joined by Doctor Sabatini. Thank you very much for coming in. We're having a very powerful picture painted for us as to the humanitarian situation at the moment. We've. Lena Savelli has to go in in ten minutes or so. So we thought we would kind of turn the questions we were going to ask the other way round so that we could incorporate her, her evidence.
But Fleur, do you have another question?
But Fleur, do you have another question?
13:57
Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Just a final one from me about the. Are you able to bring in any oil for humanitarian purposes or what? What could be the change there which would enable there to be more ability to distribute and and use of oil for humanitarian purposes? Can there be a differentiation there or do you have that already?
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13:58
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Able to. We have been able to purchase fuel from private suppliers that have brought it into Cuba, so that we are able to use it for humanitarian operations. Like the previous speaker spoke about this, a growing number of private sector actors as well in Cuba, who are able to get exemptions to to fuel in some cases, and we have been able to purchase fuel from them. So but it is not a regularly operating fuel availability across the country. So obviously it is it is more pricey and more complicated to access this so that we can keep the operations going.
13:59
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Can we perhaps just just in order to ensure that everybody because there is so much to say on the humanitarian situation, could I possibly ask Doctor Hassan Singh, is it I think about the humanitarian situation and could she also help us with. Is it true that the infant mortality rate has doubled in the last few years?
13:59
Speaker 2
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Speaker 2
Yes. Well, good afternoon and thank you so much for this opportunity. This is a very important conversation, I think. I mean, both Rohit and Lina gave a wonderful kind of on the ground overview of the situation, which is really, I would say, no longer a humanitarian crisis, but a disaster. It's been going on for a while, obviously since January of this year, since the United States imposed an oil blockade, the situation has spiralled, you know, downwards. And this lack of fuel really is what is making daily life so complicated for everybody. Now, we've heard of some of the vulnerable groups.
I'd just like to add that Afro-cubans , in particular , people of African descent in in Cuba are also very, very affected for historical and structural reasons. And because most of them don't have family abroad, thus they don't receive remittances. So there's, there's a group there that we really need to keep an eye on the crisis or the disaster really, that we're facing now is for most people in reality, kind of an everyday survival situation. The lack of fuel means not just, you know, less or very little access to food, but also water. As was mentioned, public transportation, the hospital, the educational system, all of this infrastructure that the Cuban state used to provide for, usually free or very subsidized has imploded.
So the social and the rest of the infrastructure. And so most Cubans now are trying to survive on their own, which is also psychologically a huge change. Because if you've been living in a in a country for your whole life, which has provided most of the services and, and over time and now in this survival situation, you've got to figure it out on your own. It's very, very difficult. So we're dealing with what many people now in my field call a poly crisis. So it's, it's it's economic, it's political. It's social, but also psychological. And I think that's very important to, to remember how people are doing in all of this.
They feel abandoned. Cubans feel abandoned by their own state. You know, many don't have family abroad. The elderly population is really, really in a very difficult situation. I'll just give you an anecdote of something I hear almost every week. Many elderly people have been left by their children and grandchildren who have emigrated in the last five years with the power cuts. They want to go to the bathroom at night, they fall, they break their hip and there's no help. This is an everyday situation now. There's no public transport, there are no ambulances. So, you know, it's really, really a crisis situation.
And and of course, all of this is really the central problem is that the United States and Cuba remain locked in a prolonged confrontation. And it's really a stalemate situation. You know, there's been talks of dialogue and talks of talks. But really, we are in a stalemate. And this is contributing every single day to to the worsening of the crisis on the ground, making kind of the Cuban people on the ground pay this enormous price for this political deadlock. And both sides, the U.S. and Cuban government, are entrenched in their positions. And every day that goes by is as a day, frankly, that more and more Cubans are not only suffering but are dying.
And I can't emphasize enough how critical the situation is on the ground. You know, we unfortunately don't hear enough about it in the media anymore because there's so much else going on in the world. But really the situation is, is, is, is really, really, really critical and can go into different directions. We're at a point now where, where it's very difficult to know what's going to happen, but there are multiple scenarios that none of which are particularly good. And this is why the need for humanitarian assistance is so, so critical to, to bring in aid for most of these vulnerable populations quickly in a coordinated way, you know, on an international level, because what's happening now, it's kind of trickling in, right?
Different countries are sending in, whether it's Mexico, the EU, Canada, etc., Chile, but it's not coordinated. It's, it's, it's, you know, it's sort of dribbling in here. And then we have this massive problem, as Lina just explained around distribution because of lack of fuel, but also because of bureaucracy, because of the US embargo. So we're dealing with a very complicated logistical issue. And that is the I think, the thing that we really need to address, how to quickly really organize an international coordinated humanitarian effort to get off of this, you know, individual donors or individual countries or organizations helping, but to be more coordinated and work together and also put pressure on both U.S.
and Cuban governments to alleviate some of the logistical and bureaucratic bureaucratic obstacles. Okay. Now, with regards to your question about infant mortality, yes. I mean, I have to be very honest. We've talked about some data, some some statistics, but it needs to be recognized that any any data coming out of Cuba needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. There's very little reliable data coming out of Cuba , because it's very difficult to do research in Cuba. And the data that the Cuban government gives us is, is not the most trustworthy. We can't really compare it to independent data.
So the data we have, I would say, is probably not. It's probably underestimated. So we're dealing with, you know, malnutrition at a large scale. You mentioned infant mortality. Yes. There are numbers out there that suggest that it has doubled. Also, maternal deaths have have, have skyrocketed, particularly since the pandemic and over the last couple of years, but also extreme poverty. I mean, there are conservative estimates that say that more than 60% of the Cuban population is living in extreme poverty. So, you know, we have these numbers. But I think some of the testimonies we heard really kind of put a visual image to, you know, some of these numbers.
But again, I want to highlight that we really don't know how bad the situation is, but it is probably worse than the numbers that we we have so far.
I'd just like to add that Afro-cubans , in particular , people of African descent in in Cuba are also very, very affected for historical and structural reasons. And because most of them don't have family abroad, thus they don't receive remittances. So there's, there's a group there that we really need to keep an eye on the crisis or the disaster really, that we're facing now is for most people in reality, kind of an everyday survival situation. The lack of fuel means not just, you know, less or very little access to food, but also water. As was mentioned, public transportation, the hospital, the educational system, all of this infrastructure that the Cuban state used to provide for, usually free or very subsidized has imploded.
So the social and the rest of the infrastructure. And so most Cubans now are trying to survive on their own, which is also psychologically a huge change. Because if you've been living in a in a country for your whole life, which has provided most of the services and, and over time and now in this survival situation, you've got to figure it out on your own. It's very, very difficult. So we're dealing with what many people now in my field call a poly crisis. So it's, it's it's economic, it's political. It's social, but also psychological. And I think that's very important to, to remember how people are doing in all of this.
They feel abandoned. Cubans feel abandoned by their own state. You know, many don't have family abroad. The elderly population is really, really in a very difficult situation. I'll just give you an anecdote of something I hear almost every week. Many elderly people have been left by their children and grandchildren who have emigrated in the last five years with the power cuts. They want to go to the bathroom at night, they fall, they break their hip and there's no help. This is an everyday situation now. There's no public transport, there are no ambulances. So, you know, it's really, really a crisis situation.
And and of course, all of this is really the central problem is that the United States and Cuba remain locked in a prolonged confrontation. And it's really a stalemate situation. You know, there's been talks of dialogue and talks of talks. But really, we are in a stalemate. And this is contributing every single day to to the worsening of the crisis on the ground, making kind of the Cuban people on the ground pay this enormous price for this political deadlock. And both sides, the U.S. and Cuban government, are entrenched in their positions. And every day that goes by is as a day, frankly, that more and more Cubans are not only suffering but are dying.
And I can't emphasize enough how critical the situation is on the ground. You know, we unfortunately don't hear enough about it in the media anymore because there's so much else going on in the world. But really the situation is, is, is, is really, really, really critical and can go into different directions. We're at a point now where, where it's very difficult to know what's going to happen, but there are multiple scenarios that none of which are particularly good. And this is why the need for humanitarian assistance is so, so critical to, to bring in aid for most of these vulnerable populations quickly in a coordinated way, you know, on an international level, because what's happening now, it's kind of trickling in, right?
Different countries are sending in, whether it's Mexico, the EU, Canada, etc., Chile, but it's not coordinated. It's, it's, it's, you know, it's sort of dribbling in here. And then we have this massive problem, as Lina just explained around distribution because of lack of fuel, but also because of bureaucracy, because of the US embargo. So we're dealing with a very complicated logistical issue. And that is the I think, the thing that we really need to address, how to quickly really organize an international coordinated humanitarian effort to get off of this, you know, individual donors or individual countries or organizations helping, but to be more coordinated and work together and also put pressure on both U.S.
and Cuban governments to alleviate some of the logistical and bureaucratic bureaucratic obstacles. Okay. Now, with regards to your question about infant mortality, yes. I mean, I have to be very honest. We've talked about some data, some some statistics, but it needs to be recognized that any any data coming out of Cuba needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. There's very little reliable data coming out of Cuba , because it's very difficult to do research in Cuba. And the data that the Cuban government gives us is, is not the most trustworthy. We can't really compare it to independent data.
So the data we have, I would say, is probably not. It's probably underestimated. So we're dealing with, you know, malnutrition at a large scale. You mentioned infant mortality. Yes. There are numbers out there that suggest that it has doubled. Also, maternal deaths have have, have skyrocketed, particularly since the pandemic and over the last couple of years, but also extreme poverty. I mean, there are conservative estimates that say that more than 60% of the Cuban population is living in extreme poverty. So, you know, we have these numbers. But I think some of the testimonies we heard really kind of put a visual image to, you know, some of these numbers.
But again, I want to highlight that we really don't know how bad the situation is, but it is probably worse than the numbers that we we have so far.
14:06
14:06
Edward Morello
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Edward Morello
Thank you. Chair. I just wanted to follow up with you on the ground as to some of the things that have been highlighted in terms of the access to fuel, because you mentioned that you were the World Food Program was able to purchase fuel, but from some of the SMEs that Mr. Nichol mentioned, the private company providers. There was an interesting report out this week in a UK publication that sort of alluded to the fact that the availability of fuel in Cuba was a result of American middleman companies effectively importing because they had exemptions to the sanctions.
Is that what's happening on the ground? Is there a grain of truth to that? Is this American exemptions to their own sanctions to allow American companies to make money importing fuel?
Is that what's happening on the ground? Is there a grain of truth to that? Is this American exemptions to their own sanctions to allow American companies to make money importing fuel?
14:07
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Yes. Absolutely. No. There's a lot of fuel being imported from America now. I mean, not on a scale that could affect the electricity blackouts, not especially as they are. It's designed not to get into the hands of the government. But there's a lot of fuel, a lot of the mapimi. Mapimi is are importing container sized pressurized fuel, and they're bringing it in. And there's actually stories of mapimi taking over the state, state Koupit. There is actually a couple of state kupit gas stations that have now been taken over by Mapimi. This is where many people are buying their fuel.
You can now get fuel for $2.50 a litre, which is expensive. The the it's part of the American program to allow a certain amount in. So that the crisis bubbles, but doesn't spin so far out of control that it's no longer handleable. But yes, there is. There is a. There is also a huge amount of movement by the Cuban government to. They sort of making. You can import cars from the US as well, and they are. They've got far lesser import charges on electric cars, even though we've got enormous blackouts and. And there's a move, you know, the famous old cars have disappeared to be replaced by electric tricycles.
So it's shifting very fast. But yes, there's a, there's a there is actually if you've got the money, there's no real issue with fuel at the moment.
You can now get fuel for $2.50 a litre, which is expensive. The the it's part of the American program to allow a certain amount in. So that the crisis bubbles, but doesn't spin so far out of control that it's no longer handleable. But yes, there is. There is a. There is also a huge amount of movement by the Cuban government to. They sort of making. You can import cars from the US as well, and they are. They've got far lesser import charges on electric cars, even though we've got enormous blackouts and. And there's a move, you know, the famous old cars have disappeared to be replaced by electric tricycles.
So it's shifting very fast. But yes, there's a, there's a there is actually if you've got the money, there's no real issue with fuel at the moment.
14:09
14:09
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
What are you seeing? I mean, we could talk more generally about this, but I'll try not to because I know we're on time. But the American sanctions have pushed out every Canadian, Spanish, British company. You know, they've sanctioned they've pushed out Melia and Iberostar, the big Spanish hotel companies, Blue Diamond from Canada. They've pushed out Sherritt. They are mining company. They've pushed out everybody. But they are. There is an enormous.
14:10
14:10
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Fuel you have to refuel. And also because the situation is so catastrophic that it's, you know, the reports of hepatitis and holiday zones and things like that. You know, you have to be, I, I, I went looking for tourists in Varadero, which is the famous resort for a long time to find any. They were pretty dodgy tourists. But yeah, so on fuel, fuel is a very, very important thing. There is there is a fuel blockade, but it's a fuel blockade, which is related to the US trying to take control of all supplies into into Cuba.
However, there is weirdly a slackening going on for humanitarian aid. There are now ships that for a while there were no ships from anywhere other than Miami. But there have been there's been food. I mean, Leila might know more about this, but there's food and medicines coming from Jamaica, from Veracruz and in Mexico, which is via Spain. And there are there have been other other ships allowed in. There's obviously also there's been two fuel ships arrested by America, by the US on the way in. So clearly, the government here is trying to find black ships to bring in.
If that's the right. Can I just.
However, there is weirdly a slackening going on for humanitarian aid. There are now ships that for a while there were no ships from anywhere other than Miami. But there have been there's been food. I mean, Leila might know more about this, but there's food and medicines coming from Jamaica, from Veracruz and in Mexico, which is via Spain. And there are there have been other other ships allowed in. There's obviously also there's been two fuel ships arrested by America, by the US on the way in. So clearly, the government here is trying to find black ships to bring in.
If that's the right. Can I just.
14:11
Edward Morello
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Edward Morello
Can I just go back to the point you were making before, Mr. Nichol, which was about foreign companies being forced out of Cuba. And just to finish your train of thought, are you suggesting that American companies are stepping in to fill the void left by those? Is that part of the design of the sanctions?
14:11
14:11
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
I mean, clearly, a senior American official, you know, Donald Trump's made it very, very clear that he wants to open up Cuba for his Cuban American friends in Miami. He has literally said that several times. And he's gone a bit quiet. And when I asked her on Cuba for probably a variety of reasons, but when I asked a senior American official why that was, he said, well, because it's summer. And I said, well, why summer? And he said, he doesn't go to Mar a Lago in the summer. And that's where he sees his. So we should start seeing more from him at the moment.
But he wishes for Cuba to be opened up economically for Americans. And there have been. Sherritt, for example, is a very clear example. It's a big nickel miner. It left and it looked like it had gone for good. But now there's signs that it's coming back and it will come back with a deal that is is agreed to buy off the the Washington Organization, a government organization that allows licenses. And for a while it looked like it was one of Trump's former advisors that would be the business partner on that. That seems to have slipped away for a moment, but we're waiting to see who's allowed back.
But yes, there has been a very clear shoving out of foreign countries and control taken from the US. And I think that's that's not me being that's that's a very, very clear and has been much, much I mean, it's a it's a stated policy ambition of the US.
But he wishes for Cuba to be opened up economically for Americans. And there have been. Sherritt, for example, is a very clear example. It's a big nickel miner. It left and it looked like it had gone for good. But now there's signs that it's coming back and it will come back with a deal that is is agreed to buy off the the Washington Organization, a government organization that allows licenses. And for a while it looked like it was one of Trump's former advisors that would be the business partner on that. That seems to have slipped away for a moment, but we're waiting to see who's allowed back.
But yes, there has been a very clear shoving out of foreign countries and control taken from the US. And I think that's that's not me being that's that's a very, very clear and has been much, much I mean, it's a it's a stated policy ambition of the US.
14:13
14:13
John Whittingdale
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John Whittingdale
Thank you. All three of you have described graphically the appalling situation for ordinary people living in Cuba. My question to you therefore, and actually also to Doctor Sabatini, because it relates back to Fleur's original question is who do the Cuban people blame? And therefore, how how secure is the government of Cuba given the appalling state the ordinary people are finding themselves in?
14:14
14:14
14:14
Speaker 2
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Speaker 2
Okay. Well, I think it's it's it's changing, right? It's attitudes are changing as the as the situation changes. But I, I would, I would say that most people on the island are particularly angry at their own government for, for, for not doing more for the citizens. And there has been, and this is interesting kind of a generational split in terms of, you know, the US pressure. So you find a lot of young people that are still there that many have left, obviously really hopeful, particularly in the spring time and into the early summer months, hoping that the US would have some kind of intervention, you know, military or otherwise.
And there the logic was then this reality we're living, this survival modus will finally end. Whilst people who grew up in the revolution in the 60s, 70s and 80s in a time with more economic stability, I would say have a more, you know, a more nuanced view of the situation and are really much more hopeful for, you know, a diplomatic solution. But they do believe that both sides are the US and Cuban government sides are equally responsible for this mess. And of course, this is a long term problem. I mean, all of us know the Cuban US relations have been quite dreadful for decades.
And this is not just coming out of nowhere. It's just now escalated downwards at a velocity like never before. Maybe, maybe the only other comparison is in 1960s, and it's really affecting Cubans on the ground. And as I said before, this idea and this feeling that most Cubans feel of being abandoned by their own government, particularly materially, but also in terms of social services, is really, really influencing these attitudes. So there is a lot of anger towards their own government. And we saw a lot of people on the streets, you know, banging their pots and doing all this kind of stuff in their frustration, in their ire against their own government.
And, and but there's also, again, this generational situation, which I think is very important to take into consideration.
And there the logic was then this reality we're living, this survival modus will finally end. Whilst people who grew up in the revolution in the 60s, 70s and 80s in a time with more economic stability, I would say have a more, you know, a more nuanced view of the situation and are really much more hopeful for, you know, a diplomatic solution. But they do believe that both sides are the US and Cuban government sides are equally responsible for this mess. And of course, this is a long term problem. I mean, all of us know the Cuban US relations have been quite dreadful for decades.
And this is not just coming out of nowhere. It's just now escalated downwards at a velocity like never before. Maybe, maybe the only other comparison is in 1960s, and it's really affecting Cubans on the ground. And as I said before, this idea and this feeling that most Cubans feel of being abandoned by their own government, particularly materially, but also in terms of social services, is really, really influencing these attitudes. So there is a lot of anger towards their own government. And we saw a lot of people on the streets, you know, banging their pots and doing all this kind of stuff in their frustration, in their ire against their own government.
And, and but there's also, again, this generational situation, which I think is very important to take into consideration.
14:16
14:16
Speaker 6
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Speaker 6
I would just add to echo what Katrin said. First of all, most Cubans simply want change. They blame their government for failing to respond to their needs. But however it comes, that's what they want. They're desperate. They I would say most even well, they don't blame the United States necessarily. They would welcome some form of intervention for some sort of change. Let it just happen. Now is something you hear when you speak to people who have relatives inside the island. But it also speaks to one of the fundamental flaws of this entire strategy, which I'll talk about later, is that this is intended to spark a popular rebellion against the regime, like we saw in Eastern Europe.
And because of the mass exodus of the youth, some of the most, if you will, entrepreneurial of Cubans have left the island. Cubans are desperate. There's not going to be that popular rebellion.
And because of the mass exodus of the youth, some of the most, if you will, entrepreneurial of Cubans have left the island. Cubans are desperate. There's not going to be that popular rebellion.
14:17
14:17
Speaker 6
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Speaker 6
Mostly by boat. And they're now mostly going to Mexico. They're obviously there are severe constraints on their ability to go to to Florida and where they normally go. But yes, they're leaving mostly by boats, right. And flights overseas. But yes, there's a mass exodus. I heard a number the other day, and I don't want to quote it. Probably Katrin and Lina know it better, but we're talking.
Several million Cubans have left in the last couple of years, right?
Several million Cubans have left in the last couple of years, right?
14:18
Speaker 2
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Speaker 2
Yeah, it's it's 3 million have left in the last five years. And the numbers have gone down because it's more difficult to leave now. For many years, it was very easy to get to Nicaragua without a visa. And then people, you know, migrated through Central America to the US border. All of that has changed, obviously, in the last few years, but people are still going wherever they can go. You have Cubans trying to go to Guyana, Brazil, wherever they can. They can get to they're leaving. But the numbers have gone down because it's harder to, to to get a visa for it for most countries.
14:18
14:18
14:19
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Thank you very much. And apologies for that. No, since there was a comment about other food coming into the country, I just wanted to mention that apart from what World Food Programme is doing within the framework of the UN Response plan to Hurricane Melissa and the ongoing energy crisis, there is bilateral initiatives underway. Mexico has sent humanitarian assistance other countries of the region have done to the United States have also pledged $100 million that they're working through civil society organizations and the Catholic Church in in Cuba. And then just a comment also that the government has it has adopted a series of quite ambitious reform packages to sort of open up the economy.
And in terms of food security, it includes really targeted social measures aimed at the most vulnerable groups, and also agricultural reforms, such as proposed changes to land tenure and agricultural management. However, of course, translating these policy measures into tangible economic and social outcomes will depend on resource availability and inputs and financing. So it will certainly take time. But I wanted to just mention those two things before I unfortunately have to disconnect. I thank you very much.
And in terms of food security, it includes really targeted social measures aimed at the most vulnerable groups, and also agricultural reforms, such as proposed changes to land tenure and agricultural management. However, of course, translating these policy measures into tangible economic and social outcomes will depend on resource availability and inputs and financing. So it will certainly take time. But I wanted to just mention those two things before I unfortunately have to disconnect. I thank you very much.
14:20
14:20
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
First of all, sorry. Just to answer a previous question, the Miami Herald reported very recently that the US has has $231.7 million of fuel has been imported from the US since from January to August. I don't know how accurate that is, but that's what they say. I also just on to the matter of who's to blame. I think it's very, very important to remember this is not a natural disaster. It's not a hurricane.
It's not an earthquake. It is entirely man made. And it could end tomorrow if some people made different decisions.
It's not an earthquake. It is entirely man made. And it could end tomorrow if some people made different decisions.
14:21
14:21
Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Well, the Cuban government and the US government, they are both, as Catherine says, entirely locked in this system where they refuse to budge on either side. Just as to who's to blame. I can talk more about that, but who's to blame? I do actually have figures on this. The Vanderbilt University did in its America survey. It did a survey of Cubans, and they came back and 79% of those they surveyed surveyed blamed the Cuban government. Now, a lot of people have criticized that survey because it was done by the internet and there's issues around it, but I.
However, earlier in the year, I flew to Santiago, Cuba. Second City, which is 550 miles away, and I hitchhiked back. I wanted to see if I could hitch hike in the middle of an oil blockade. So I stood beside the river by the road and with pesos. How they do it here is you a few pennies worth of pesos. You stand and you wave. And there's an obligation in Cuba to stop, especially for government cars. And it took me three days to get back. And I spoke in depth to about 30 people during that trip, and 28 of them blamed their own government.
And and one I remember particularly a teacher, what she said to me as we stood by the road, she saw these big fancy new cars. I spoke to go past and she said, do you see those people going past in their big fancy cars? They're the people that run this country and they're not stopping for us.
However, earlier in the year, I flew to Santiago, Cuba. Second City, which is 550 miles away, and I hitchhiked back. I wanted to see if I could hitch hike in the middle of an oil blockade. So I stood beside the river by the road and with pesos. How they do it here is you a few pennies worth of pesos. You stand and you wave. And there's an obligation in Cuba to stop, especially for government cars. And it took me three days to get back. And I spoke in depth to about 30 people during that trip, and 28 of them blamed their own government.
And and one I remember particularly a teacher, what she said to me as we stood by the road, she saw these big fancy new cars. I spoke to go past and she said, do you see those people going past in their big fancy cars? They're the people that run this country and they're not stopping for us.
14:22
14:23
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
And could I also perhaps also because we because we've been shifting the structure of the of the question so much. And we were going to begin with the the background situation, the international situation. And for those who are watching, who don't necessarily know the history of Cuba, perhaps there's also ought to be referenced to American policy and the and the 60 year blockade and so on. I think that's probably important to kind of factor that in, because I think we're all assuming a certain level of knowledge and. And we did mean to, to lay the ground for that by our first couple of questions.
But given the structure of the who was coming and who was going, we, we we've done it rather backwards.
But given the structure of the who was coming and who was going, we, we we've done it rather backwards.
14:23
Speaker 6
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Speaker 6
Should I start, please? So apologies for being late. Thank you for the invitation. It's an honor to be here. I've worked on Cuba and Us-cuban relations for longer than I care to remember. What I'll say, first of all is you have to understand the US embargo on Cuba is the law. In 1992 and again in 1996, the US Congress, fearing that a Clinton administration would lift the embargo with a stroke of a pen by executive action, passed it into law, and the current US embargo called the Liberty Act, the unironically titled Liberty Act, demands that if before the US president can ask the Congress to lift the embargo, there have to be a set of conditions in place.
No Castro can be in power. All political prisoners have to be released, human rights have to be respected, and there have to be credible steps to free and fair elections. That is a dilemma, not just obviously, for the Cuban government, which has survived through sheer repression and a smothering state control over the economy. But it's also a problem for any negotiations and what this administration can offer, because it has to focus on southern Florida. Cuba is largely, as we all know, a US domestic issue. There are a number of very powerful Cuban American Congress people who hold that vote.
And also the 29 electoral votes of Florida that are very important. And they've also been very effective at mobilizing donor contributions for other Congress people to defend the embargo and defend their position, because it's simply, quite simply an easy trade to make defend the embargo. Everything else. You're free to do what you want to do. How do we get here? Basically, the US administration under Trump thought that they could repeat the so-called success of Venezuela, of Maduro. They thought they could extract someone or convince someone to leave. And there were even credible stories that one of the brokers that was sent there even met with the grandson of Raul Castro and basically said, if you arrange for transition, all of these riches can be part, can be yours.
And this is from a credible source.
No Castro can be in power. All political prisoners have to be released, human rights have to be respected, and there have to be credible steps to free and fair elections. That is a dilemma, not just obviously, for the Cuban government, which has survived through sheer repression and a smothering state control over the economy. But it's also a problem for any negotiations and what this administration can offer, because it has to focus on southern Florida. Cuba is largely, as we all know, a US domestic issue. There are a number of very powerful Cuban American Congress people who hold that vote.
And also the 29 electoral votes of Florida that are very important. And they've also been very effective at mobilizing donor contributions for other Congress people to defend the embargo and defend their position, because it's simply, quite simply an easy trade to make defend the embargo. Everything else. You're free to do what you want to do. How do we get here? Basically, the US administration under Trump thought that they could repeat the so-called success of Venezuela, of Maduro. They thought they could extract someone or convince someone to leave. And there were even credible stories that one of the brokers that was sent there even met with the grandson of Raul Castro and basically said, if you arrange for transition, all of these riches can be part, can be yours.
And this is from a credible source.
14:25
14:25
Speaker 6
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Speaker 6
Yeah. He didn't buy it. And he is known to be a little bit of a bon vivant, more than a typical Communist apparatchik, but he didn't buy it. And this is the problem, as we see also with Iran, with the revolutionary government. It's not as easy to corrupt them and to engage in something that would cause defections within that inner circle. The Cuban government has survived since 1959 against the US policy and a set of Cuban Americans who desperately wanted to see change in Cuba Democratic for the most part. And this is still their mode, and it always will be their mode.
So this idea that you could simply pick 1 or 2 leaders and arrange some sort of coalition is simply unworkable as much as it is in Iran, although obviously the cost in Iran is much, much higher. Which leads us to where we're heading now. Yes, there have been more provisions for the allocation of oil to private sector inside the economy. But as we hear from Katrin and the other speakers, the humanitarian crisis is real. It's worsening. And quite simply, we're facing a real standoff. The Cuban government has offered a series of economic liberalization measures which are not going to be sufficient.
The US government has said so, and they're not going to go far enough for, quite simply, loosening their control over the economy means a risk to their political survival, and they know that they survived since 1959 by this complete smothering control and a very dogmatic approach and a very closed circle and vertical control within the state, they're not about to surrender that. And in large part to after years of attempted interventions by Cuban Americans, including the bombing of a civilian aircraft that killed the Cuban volleyball team by Cuban American, these people also fear for their life.
They're not about to cede power willingly. So this fundamental theory of change that has guided the US embargo for decades now is fundamentally flawed. People aren't going to rise up. The regime is not going to fragment and imagine some sort of slow walk negotiation if they fear for their lives, and in the meantime, they can continue to repress, they can continue to deny their people food and even sort of deny them now, health care and even effective education because they're accountable to no one.
So this will go on indefinitely.
So this idea that you could simply pick 1 or 2 leaders and arrange some sort of coalition is simply unworkable as much as it is in Iran, although obviously the cost in Iran is much, much higher. Which leads us to where we're heading now. Yes, there have been more provisions for the allocation of oil to private sector inside the economy. But as we hear from Katrin and the other speakers, the humanitarian crisis is real. It's worsening. And quite simply, we're facing a real standoff. The Cuban government has offered a series of economic liberalization measures which are not going to be sufficient.
The US government has said so, and they're not going to go far enough for, quite simply, loosening their control over the economy means a risk to their political survival, and they know that they survived since 1959 by this complete smothering control and a very dogmatic approach and a very closed circle and vertical control within the state, they're not about to surrender that. And in large part to after years of attempted interventions by Cuban Americans, including the bombing of a civilian aircraft that killed the Cuban volleyball team by Cuban American, these people also fear for their life.
They're not about to cede power willingly. So this fundamental theory of change that has guided the US embargo for decades now is fundamentally flawed. People aren't going to rise up. The regime is not going to fragment and imagine some sort of slow walk negotiation if they fear for their lives, and in the meantime, they can continue to repress, they can continue to deny their people food and even sort of deny them now, health care and even effective education because they're accountable to no one.
So this will go on indefinitely.
14:28
Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Been an argument as well, hasn't there, that because of the blockade, any, any, any legitimate criticisms that there may have been and they're obviously legitimate criticisms with any government. But I mean, but with the Cuban system particularly can be answered by. But if there wasn't the blockade, things But with the Cuban system particularly can be answered by. But if there wasn't the blockade, things .
14:28
14:28
14:28
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
And I was traveling a lot to Cuba during that period. And you really did see a sense of growth and the creation of an independent economic sector. That meant something that was basically shut down in. 2017 when Donald Trump returned the full embargo. What we've also seen Katrin mentioned the private sector, but what also is reportedly happening, I was speaking to someone yesterday about this, is that we're seeing. these so-called private entrepreneurs. They're becoming very. concentrated among those who already have contacts in the government, if you will. Sort of what I call the entry follows those who are plugged into the government.
14:29
14:29
Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
What you're seeing now is a concentration of sort of crony. capitalism in a very infant form. So this is the dilemma. This standoff will go on. indefinitely until something happens. Humanitarian assistance is important. But let's be honest, it is a band aid. This is going to take some form of a change that is meaningful. I don't think, again, that it will come from a popular uprising that will bring down the government. I don't think it will come through a series of concessions that will be sufficient to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio's. demands and for what has been talked about.
And I'll just say it quite frankly, yes, there is a very strong economic interest by the by, the Trump administration. And what happens afterwards? Donald Trump, in. 1993 or 94 sent a group of associates to Cuba thinking the embargo would be lifted under President Clinton to investigate the opportunity for Trump. properties in Cuba. And indeed, as we saw, the removal of of Melia, Somalia, by ownership over hotels and others, is really setting the stage for a really sort of an open season, if you will, for these properties. What can the international community do? I think this is a dilemma.
This is typically seen as a bilateral affair. The US, I mean, since the US basically hijacked its independence movement in. 1898 from Spain and then wrote into the. Constitution a clause that allowed an amendment that allowed it to intervene at will. basically .
And I'll just say it quite frankly, yes, there is a very strong economic interest by the by, the Trump administration. And what happens afterwards? Donald Trump, in. 1993 or 94 sent a group of associates to Cuba thinking the embargo would be lifted under President Clinton to investigate the opportunity for Trump. properties in Cuba. And indeed, as we saw, the removal of of Melia, Somalia, by ownership over hotels and others, is really setting the stage for a really sort of an open season, if you will, for these properties. What can the international community do? I think this is a dilemma.
This is typically seen as a bilateral affair. The US, I mean, since the US basically hijacked its independence movement in. 1898 from Spain and then wrote into the. Constitution a clause that allowed an amendment that allowed it to intervene at will. basically .
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
But what we now see is a dramatic. With terrible deprivation, with terrible with with, with, with nobody, with people not being able to read and write with the biggest employer of women being prostitution. I mean, there is a, there was a level of, of, of, of, of suffering in Cuba, which also when we talk about the older generation being more sympathetic.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Like before the revolution. Precisely. And with huge racial divides, just to put it in. Yeah. No, that's exactly right. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not whitewashing why Fidel Castro came to power. The. So in this case, you know, I think there is a role for the international community to start to if you will try to. reestablish or vindicate at least the need for diplomacy. This is what is occurring now is not diplomacy. It's simply a stand off. And so the first step, I believe, could be organizing a large. humanitarian effort even then as a way of doing that, even offering the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
There will be plenty of steps along this process when there is change. eventually that will require international investment, whether international dialogue, mediation and.
There will be plenty of steps along this process when there is change. eventually that will require international investment, whether international dialogue, mediation and.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Even if it's down to the level of. negotiating with. claimants for their former. property in an eventual Cuba. But what we're facing right now is very serious in the sense, even in the future, is a failed state in Cuba. I work a lot recently on Haiti, and I don't mean to sound grim or alarmist, but the truth is, is infrastructure is collapsed, education is.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Healthcare is collapsed. And often what's said by Donald Trump is, well, we'll invest. Cuban Americans will come in. Most of the Cuban Americans. I was just talking to someone yesterday from Miami who says mostly what they want is their properties back. Yes, they will invest, but they're not going to invest in the critical public goods of.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
And this is what we're really facing is the risk of a completely failed state. I'll end with this quick anecdote. I was talking to the head of Southern Command shortly after the Obama changes. I won't name who it was at the time. And he said, you know, the biggest security threat for the United. States in Cuba is that after a change, there will be a failed state. And he pointed to a map of Cuba, and he said, look at the north of Cuba. It's filled with pockets of bays and small keys and islands. That is.
prime real estate for narcotics. traffickers and. transnational crime. Say what you will about the Cuban regime. It does not engage. It's not a criminal regime that engages in illicit, massive illicit. trafficking that is a primary threat. And the longer this goes on, for reasons of.
prime real estate for narcotics. traffickers and. transnational crime. Say what you will about the Cuban regime. It does not engage. It's not a criminal regime that engages in illicit, massive illicit. trafficking that is a primary threat. And the longer this goes on, for reasons of.
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Mr. Nichol, I don't know if you yes. I mean, look, there is a lot of aid now. Well, I mean, probably not nearly enough. There's a lot of aid beginning to move in. I know that Spain is sending a lot. Mexico is sending a lot. It's mainly from. countries choosing to do it. There is this is mainly as as I think Lina said, the US has got 100 million. Is is putting in. 100 million of aid itself, which is. Whatever you think of that. These are going to mainly church groups. The US is using the Catholic Church.
There's a lot of going through Protestant churches. I know that a lot of the. countries love and Katrina will probably know more about this kiss Cuba, which is an amazing Yoruba group which has has has government. contacts but is run by an incredible man. And they are very good at getting aid to the people that need it. And to, to speak to Katrina's point earlier, to a black people who are suffering. disproportionately because pretty much all immigration has been white. So the people abroad are usually white sending to families. There have been, as you pointed out.
solidarity groups, despite me being a guardian man for 36 years, can I be a. I hope I'm not. They. That is more people arriving with suitcases of aid. They come for a week. There's a Canadian group at the moment. They. They then spend perhaps a little too much time in the company of people from the Cuban.
There's a lot of going through Protestant churches. I know that a lot of the. countries love and Katrina will probably know more about this kiss Cuba, which is an amazing Yoruba group which has has has government. contacts but is run by an incredible man. And they are very good at getting aid to the people that need it. And to, to speak to Katrina's point earlier, to a black people who are suffering. disproportionately because pretty much all immigration has been white. So the people abroad are usually white sending to families. There have been, as you pointed out.
solidarity groups, despite me being a guardian man for 36 years, can I be a. I hope I'm not. They. That is more people arriving with suitcases of aid. They come for a week. There's a Canadian group at the moment. They. They then spend perhaps a little too much time in the company of people from the Cuban.
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
And when the big flotilla came, whenever it was that had Jeremy Corbyn and it had Owen Jones and Hassam Speicher, I spent a lot of time around those people and they couldn't understand why the people, the Cuban people were so angry with them. They said, why does. everybody why does everybody being rude to us? And it's because it was seen as quite performative. One little fact I was when people arrived with. suitcases full of medicines, great, you know, and it's brilliant to go to a hospital. And that's really good news. And all those things are good, but I can buy any medicine I want here, I can buy.
I have six companies in my phone with solar panels. I if it's all about money now, if you've got enough money to buy those things, I have, I have a, a WhatsApp, which I get and literally any medicine will arrive in 30 minutes at my front door on a motorbike. I mean, stuff that you couldn't get in Britain without doctors signing off. So if you're spending. £1,000 to come fly to Cuba for a week, staying in a government owned hotel with a suitcase, I've only got. I've you know, I like these people. They are.
They're very well meaning. But the. Canadian the chairwoman, Emily Thornberry, said, you know, all those flights that used to come from Canada, nearly all those flights said, if you bring. This is long before this embargo. They're not before the embargo is obviously very long, long before this blockade. But if you said, I have a suitcase full of.
I have six companies in my phone with solar panels. I if it's all about money now, if you've got enough money to buy those things, I have, I have a, a WhatsApp, which I get and literally any medicine will arrive in 30 minutes at my front door on a motorbike. I mean, stuff that you couldn't get in Britain without doctors signing off. So if you're spending. £1,000 to come fly to Cuba for a week, staying in a government owned hotel with a suitcase, I've only got. I've you know, I like these people. They are.
They're very well meaning. But the. Canadian the chairwoman, Emily Thornberry, said, you know, all those flights that used to come from Canada, nearly all those flights said, if you bring. This is long before this embargo. They're not before the embargo is obviously very long, long before this blockade. But if you said, I have a suitcase full of.
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
The Canadian flights would let you that suitcase go for free. So, you know, because of the cancellation of all those flights, far bigger. daily aid of the sort we're talking about has been cut off. So I think, you know, I do think. countries are really are really beginning to sort of send stuff. But it is I think, as Chris said, it's it's a fig leaf. This is a political problem that needs .
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Dan Carden
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Dan Carden
To be solved. It is not an earthquake. Thank you, Mr. Nicholas. Just and just to carry that on, Doctor Hanson, it is a political problem that needs to be solved. The UK has had a long, long diplomatic. relationship with Cuba. Do you think the UK has a role to play and Cuba would be linked in with the. The Caribbean. countries with Latin America?
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Humanitarian assistance. What's happening now are individual, bilateral. Aid coming in from different countries. And it's it's, you know, everybody's doing their own thing and nobody really knows what the needs are. It has to be coordinated. That's the main, I think, focus we need to, to get out there, that we need to work among different. countries in Europe, the UK, Canada, Latin.
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Suppose my question would be who would who would lead that diplomatic effort? Yes. And so to your second question, I mean, I think that the UK has a. enormously great potential role to play here. The UK is has had a long relationship with Cuba and and could really take on a leadership role, you know, with, with other countries, with other.
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Both on the. humanitarian side, but also because I really I mean, and I think all of us on this panel are sort of on the same page. I mean, the solution, if we can speak of a solution, really needs to have a two track response. One is this urgent. humanitarian aid for ordinary people who are suffering, but it also needs to come. alongside a serious, you know. diplomacy to reduce this us-cuban.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Quickly, quickly, because I want to move on to Sir John, if that's all right. Oh, sure. No. Go on. Is working through. Caricom and through Commonwealth countries could also be a way to help regionalize this, to make it less about Europe. intervening on behalf or in a situation that, as some people describe it as a family feud between the US and Cuba. Caricom spoke very forcefully at their last meeting about the need and the crisis that is being created by the US blockade on oil. I think that would be an obvious leverage point that the UK could effectively use to make this much .
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John Whittingdale
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John Whittingdale
Cuban dynamic. Yes. Very interesting. Can I come back to the US approach? Because everybody has said that the Cuban people are desperate to achieve change. But you've also suggested it's not going to happen internally. Now the Trump administration has been ramping up the rhetoric. They've declared that it's an extraordinary threat to the United States. They received an.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Them with open arms to come and rescue them from their plight? Many Cubans inside Cuba, from what I hear, would welcome some form of U.S. intervention. I don't know how practical that is for a number of reasons. First of all, again, much like Iran, this was a revolutionary government that wouldn't necessarily crumble. This isn't a case of just sending in special ops forces and taking someone out of the country and putting them in prison somewhere in the United States. And second, I don't think the United States wants to fully own a Cuba that has been.
devastated by decades of economic. mismanagement and an embargo, and now a blockade, and where the US would strike, whether it would commit troops is a very. difficult answer. I think the the Cuban military would probably fight. It wouldn't be a fair fight. Of course, their weapons are Soviet era weapons for the most part. But again, the Cuban economy has been run largely by the. military after the special period or during the special period after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Much of the running of the economy, everything from. hotels to. restaurants to oil and gas was done by the military.
Those are perks they will be loath to part with. So while.
devastated by decades of economic. mismanagement and an embargo, and now a blockade, and where the US would strike, whether it would commit troops is a very. difficult answer. I think the the Cuban military would probably fight. It wouldn't be a fair fight. Of course, their weapons are Soviet era weapons for the most part. But again, the Cuban economy has been run largely by the. military after the special period or during the special period after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Much of the running of the economy, everything from. hotels to. restaurants to oil and gas was done by the military.
Those are perks they will be loath to part with. So while.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Most people would probably welcome something that brings change to Cuba, I think there would be pockets of resistance simply for the mere fact that they'll be parting with a very rich vein. You know, there's allegedly. $800 billion of of funds held off the coast of Cuba in offshore banks. I don't know if that's true, but the Miami Herald has reported it. That doesn't always make it true, as we know the Miami Herald. But they will be loath to part with some of that. So there would be resistance. And I think for the United States, you know, given its other .
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Going to have an impact? It already has an impact. I mean, this is this policy is one where obviously. And it's not that different from Venezuela. In this case, the Donald Trump administration has a certain idea in the case of. Venezuela that is largely. transactional and about extracting rents from Venezuela, as we saw with this so-called oil deal , that will guarantee rights over. 65 billion barrels of oil worth of oil. The same thing is probably true in Cuba for the reasons I mentioned Marco Rubio. However, he wants to run for president in the next race.
So in.
So in.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
But to do that, he needs to shore up his own base in South Florida. And so you mentioned, sir, the the the indictment of Raul Castro. That was in many ways a sop to that particular base to say, well, we're not going to bring regime change as soon as possible, but we are going to at least indict someone who is your, your, your avowed enemy. It won't work. They're not about to swoop in and remove Raul Castro wouldn't change anything within the regime, even if even if they did, it also wouldn't be a good look.
Arresting a nine year old man and putting him in onto a plane. But, you know, Marco Rubio has a particular design on this, and this is that he wants to see change. And he's now changed. He's moved the goalposts. He was promising change before the midterm elections, which will be in November. Now he's saying within two years there will be change in Cuba, which, fortunately for him and his ambitions, coincides with the election. So there'll be some form of change. But again, his back is against the wall. Given the the fact that the embargo is law, how much he can give away in terms of.
facilitating some sort of slow motion transition or even a complete, you know,
Arresting a nine year old man and putting him in onto a plane. But, you know, Marco Rubio has a particular design on this, and this is that he wants to see change. And he's now changed. He's moved the goalposts. He was promising change before the midterm elections, which will be in November. Now he's saying within two years there will be change in Cuba, which, fortunately for him and his ambitions, coincides with the election. So there'll be some form of change. But again, his back is against the wall. Given the the fact that the embargo is law, how much he can give away in terms of.
facilitating some sort of slow motion transition or even a complete, you know,
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
That people would say it, but it's sort of a it's a it's a thing to stay. It's a it's to shock you. I mean, there's nothing like the idea I, I find it still baffling that people I speak to Miami think, you know, they leave this country and they go abroad and they're quite willing quickly to fire missiles at you. So I don't. think that the majority want that. I think that it's unlikely now to happen as well. But I think there is a very important point to make, which is things are changing here very, very quickly.
It's not the same country as it was three months ago. And the reason that's changing is. because of what Chris was just saying, is that this new mapimi. economy is really, really firing now. And and so there's just a I live in Vedado, which is sort of the equivalent of Chelsea, I suppose, in Havana. And and, you know, this whole new club has opened on the Malecon and it's got swimming pools, got tennis courts that's been built, it's got racquet courts and it's been taken from a state, a defunct. state sort of property. And it's been a woman who's been a Cuban woman who's been 16 years in.
It's not the same country as it was three months ago. And the reason that's changing is. because of what Chris was just saying, is that this new mapimi. economy is really, really firing now. And and so there's just a I live in Vedado, which is sort of the equivalent of Chelsea, I suppose, in Havana. And and, you know, this whole new club has opened on the Malecon and it's got swimming pools, got tennis courts that's been built, it's got racquet courts and it's been taken from a state, a defunct. state sort of property. And it's been a woman who's been a Cuban woman who's been 16 years in.
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Had various restaurants come back and she's. renovated it now. I have no idea how she got that lease, what the form of the lease is. But now she's got a property that in the alternative. universe that would be worth maybe, you know. 100 million or maybe more. And I don't know what the state of that leases that is happening to all the hotels that have been that from which Melia and Iberostar have left. There's been a call put out to to people, entrepreneurs in Cuba, if you can get outside funding, take over a hotel, and you're seeing that with the Iberostar Packard, a very fancy new hotel that has been taken over by someone who's very close to the regime .
He has. I went I went because I went with the CNN correspondent the other day to have a look at it at Saturday night. It's party, party, party, reggaeton. Everybody dressed to the nines, absolutely full and and a and that money. What's interesting to me, because I spend a lot of time in Miami talking to Miami people, is that there's this group of quite elderly Miami people who lost their properties, who are all sitting around discussing how they're going to open a stock market and they're going to do this when when it all.
He has. I went I went because I went with the CNN correspondent the other day to have a look at it at Saturday night. It's party, party, party, reggaeton. Everybody dressed to the nines, absolutely full and and a and that money. What's interesting to me, because I spend a lot of time in Miami talking to Miami people, is that there's this group of quite elderly Miami people who lost their properties, who are all sitting around discussing how they're going to open a stock market and they're going to do this when when it all.
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Speed that I can't even begin to sort of explain. But the thing that struck me from the evidence I've heard today, is that is that we may find ourselves in a situation where, where you might well have hotels and, and so on that have lots of money. And there is this class of entrepreneurs making huge amounts of money and with their private gas stations, etc.. But, but who's going to be responsible for the roads and for the schools and the, and the, the, you .
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Yes, yes. So can I ask, can I ask can I just ask very quickly? I'm sorry, but let's just start from the principle that Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband are not going to die on this hill against the Trump administration. I just don't see it happening. This is no no country's going to decide Cuba's worth spending that sort of political capital. So I would just say I've been trying to think of since you very kindly invited me here. I've been trying to think what would actually be useful for Britain. I think, first of all, because we go through endless rumors.
maintain a proper working embassy. We've had three very good ambassadors in a row and they have done a lot.
maintain a proper working embassy. We've had three very good ambassadors in a row and they have done a lot.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Wealth are appalling and the violence is extreme. I would just like to second that and also the need for education. In the brief moment I was at the time at Columbia University, we were trying to organize exchanges with law. students in universities in Cuba. The Cuban government wasn't interested in it. But you're going to have to you're going to have underprepared lawyers who are going to be negotiating contracts with rapacious lawyers. I don't mean that as a, as a, as a to be redundant. That will not be prepared for to negotiate the terms for this investment.
That is going to be necessary to help .
That is going to be necessary to help .
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Preserve Cuba's autonomy and agency over its own progress. Yeah. Okay. So the so, so consensus seems to be that that Cubans wouldn't want to be invaded, but I mean, is it not? And we've talked about, you know, post the midterms, what is Donald Trump going to do for two years if he doesn't have any particular power at home? You know, might he not turn his eyes to to Cuba and a regime change in in Cuba, despite the lessons that .
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
I mean, what are the chances of that happening? In these moments? And I said this during the build up over Venezuela. It's like Anton Chekhov said about a play, you don't show a gun in the first act and not use it in the second. You don't ramp up this level of rhetoric and bluster and marshal force or threats and not deliver in some way. I suspect he will deliver something. Will it be effective? I don't think so. I imagine there could be some token and they have plans. I've heard both the CIA and the US Defense Department will continue to use that term.
Defense Department have. prepared action plans for specific targets to strike. That may be the case. Will that deliver change? I don't think so. Will it deliver any commitment to Cuba's long term economic health and survival and progress? I doubt it, but I think something will have to be done in the next two years, not just for Donald Trump's own sense .
Defense Department have. prepared action plans for specific targets to strike. That may be the case. Will that deliver change? I don't think so. Will it deliver any commitment to Cuba's long term economic health and survival and progress? I doubt it, but I think something will have to be done in the next two years, not just for Donald Trump's own sense .
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Doctor Hanson, do you agree? Yes, I do. I mean, I think the fact is that nobody knows what's going to happen, right? I mean, it's it's just a very opaque. situation both on the US and the Cuban side. But I think what needs to be underlined is that every day that goes by the. situation for the majority of Cubans who are part of the sort of have nots is, is going to get worse. And one thing we haven't mentioned is, is also there is a real. possibility that if things get much worse, which which they could, particularly with the diseases and the lack of water and food, etc., etc., that that some sort of, you know, some sort of chaos forms so that people don't go on the street.
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
Between these two antagonistic governments. This is where I think we need to really focus in this moment when, where, where we're in a situation of limbo . And, and the only, only change in this limbo situation is that the situation on the ground is getting worse for the majority of the Cuban people. Well, it's a small. minority is getting very, very rich. You know, like in many other former Eastern European countries after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
So there's there's a lot of overlap there, and there are lessons to be learned. But in the.
So there's there's a lot of overlap there, and there are lessons to be learned. But in the.
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Speaker 8
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Speaker 8
Does that answer the question you were wanting to. Yeah, I'm just just wondering just a bit further on from that. So which other what other. mediation is happening at the moment? Isn't there one of those countries, are they already leading diplomatic efforts or should the UN be leading that? And they're not able to? Why would why would the unique. Why the UK .
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
The status quo really is untenable and will work. against their own interests. I mean, it is not in the interest of the United States to have a refugee crisis. It is not in the in the in the interest of the US, as Chris said before, to have the northern part of the Cuban coast that has hundreds of keys and little islands become, you know, a prime real estate for for narco trafficking. I mean, that is not in the interest, the national interest of the United States. And it is also not in the interest of the Cuban government for the situation on the ground to become more and more chaotic.
So in this in in between space, there is the potential to to have a mediated solution. And I think the UK could be, should be part of a coalition of, of groups or governments rather . That could push for.
So in this in in between space, there is the potential to to have a mediated solution. And I think the UK could be, should be part of a coalition of, of groups or governments rather . That could push for.
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Speaker 4
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Speaker 4
You know, a. rational situation where both, both, both sides come together and figure out a way to move forward slowly, but in the interest, you know, of their own interest. And I think the UK can be part of a group of people, whether it's it's the EU, the Canada, some Latin American countries and the .
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
Can I just add, can we be. I will let you speak in a moment. Let me just let me just put just to stick this question in two, which is which is this is very interesting, but do you what are the chances of either the Cuban government or the current American government being open to even the possibility of there being mediation? May I perhaps ask Rory Nicol that and do say whatever .
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Interrupting you on. I love I love Catherine for saying this because I think, you know, it's optimistic, but I, I, I feel it's very difficult. The Cuban government has spent a lot of time not wanting interference from anyone else. And I don't need to speak to how the Trump. administration deals with other countries. It would be wonderful if there was and if there was a way forward. without causing the trouble that Catherine talks about, then then that would be great. I think if intervention comes, it comes after what Catherine was talking about. I think. epidemic or a general breakdown of.
society or a big or protests. I think protests are possible. A there are still the protests that have happened so far, including.
society or a big or protests. I think protests are possible. A there are still the protests that have happened so far, including.
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Have. started with young mothers turning up at state. buildings with babies saying, we can't. We need help. We can't feed our babies. If you start to see. I think this is actually a conversation I've had with Katrina. If you start losing babies, if babies start to die, then people will come back onto the streets. At the moment, they're too too frightened to. But, you know. Again, I think I am quoting the other panelists, but, you know, you know, if people lose their children or something, then they don't have anything to live for anymore. And then you might see protests.
That is when I can see the U.S. beginning intervening. Now, I doubt, although of course, as Chris said, the US military is all prepared. It's done all the research. We've been surrounded by surveillance drones for about 7 or 8 months. They've got every plan available, but at the moment I am be surprised. I wouldn't be completely surprised, but I'd be surprised if that happens. But I think if the crisis that Cuba has been pushed into gets to the point of lots of people .
That is when I can see the U.S. beginning intervening. Now, I doubt, although of course, as Chris said, the US military is all prepared. It's done all the research. We've been surrounded by surveillance drones for about 7 or 8 months. They've got every plan available, but at the moment I am be surprised. I wouldn't be completely surprised, but I'd be surprised if that happens. But I think if the crisis that Cuba has been pushed into gets to the point of lots of people .
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
Then I think that's where the intervention comes from. Yes. Thank you. I would just add to the question too, is there's been no offer yet. So no one as as perhaps as. unrealistic and naive, even no one has stepped forward to say, well, you know, when the moment comes, we can help with Caricom, with other countries. And I think that even.
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Speaker 1
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Speaker 1
And I agree with Mr. Nichol, that that, you know, the likelihood of the Cubans accepting that because, you know, this is they prefer to the Cuban regime is oddly very elitist, and they prefer to deal directly with the United States. But I think if, you know, there's been no such offer made, and I think at least it would help bring some attention to what is occurring and the. possibility that .
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Speaker 3
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Speaker 3
Raulito, and it played its card and it thought it could get enough of the people who want to just survive in power and be rich, and they thought they could get enough of those people in the government to tip the whole thing off over. It hasn't worked out. There's clearly enough resistance in the Cuban government against that. Enough people who still believe, or who aren't wealthy enough and want to protect their. positions to stop it. And we know that those conversations have come to an end. And so I think there's a sort of breath being taken with even at least by the US, while they keep their foot on Cuba's throat and .
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Emily Thornberry
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Emily Thornberry
So I think there will be action even from the US Congress as well, to investigate this. That's interesting. That's very interesting. We're we will be visiting the United States early next year, and perhaps we ought to make sure that we we speak to them because this has been a really interesting session, one that is not discussed enough in Britain. I know that, you know, there's a place in many the hearts of many British people for Cuba, and a great concern as to what is going on, but really very little understanding of what's happened. And I hope that those that have taken the time to to watch the session today, to listen to these extraordinary experts, will have learnt a great deal.
I know that I .
I know that I .
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