Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, I take no issue with the terms of the Statement, nor with the remarks of the noble Lord who has just spoken, but I think it is helpful if we try to put into context the political objectives of Mr Putin. Put baldly, they are these: to break Ukraine and to intimidate NATO. Mr Putin sees a client Ukraine as essential to Russia’s interests and believes—I believe, falsely—that western capitals will back down in the face of his aggression. The overarching purpose is to create a sphere of Russian interest in eastern Europe—an objective for which, I may say, he was given some encouragement by the sometimes lukewarm support given to NATO by President Trump.
It is clear, in my judgment, that any accession to Mr Putin’s demands would break both Ukraine and NATO itself. The truth is that NATO poses no threat to Russia. If we consider the enhanced forward presence with which the United Kingdom is most closely associated, the deployment of the battle group to Estonia, it consists of some 900 men. That will hardly challenge the substance of the Russian state.
We should not forget, though, that the people of Ukraine have been under considerable stress and strain. They have been under cyberattack in a particularly personal way, and we know now that there is the threat of false flag diversions. However, I am clear in my mind that we are right to support the Government of Ukraine politically and to provide them with defensive weapons. I am clear in my mind that we are right to make it clear that the United Kingdom will be part of severe economic measures against Russia if military action is commenced. The people of Ukraine continue to show their courage and resilience in the face of provocation and imminent threat, but, increasingly, they show that they wish a future in the Euro-Atlantic community, which is their sovereign right, and one that we should be willing to defend.
I have but two questions for the Minister. What discussions have the United Kingdom Government had with other members of NATO and the European Union to ensure unity of purpose in both those organisations? In particular, why was it that RAF aircraft, two C17s, taking defensive weapons to Ukraine, chose not to fly over Germany? Was there a political reason behind that decision?
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, I first thank the noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, for their very helpful comments and constructive approach. On behalf of the Government, I express my appreciation of that. In different ways, both noble Lords analysed the issue in a manner from which I could not diverge, and I am grateful to them both for that contribution.
I will try to deal with the points that were raised. The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, is absolutely right that, clearly, there is a shadow hanging over Ukraine. If you look at the history and, as he rightly said, reflect on Ukrainian casualties, you see that this is, quite simply, a situation that no one wants to see proceed to aggressive incursion—hence the concerted effort by different countries in different groupings to try to prevail upon Mr Putin to de-escalate the tension and agree to sit down and discuss things by way of dialogue. On de-escalation, I say to the noble Lord that the recent initiative by the UK is not engaging in any aggressive action against Russia; it is simply supporting Ukraine as a sovereign nation to defend itself against threat.
The noble Lord asked about the UK objectives. The UK, of course, respects the people, history and culture of Russia, but the current relationship with the Russian Government is certainly not one that we want. As the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, alluded to, Russian state threats, such as cyberattacks, disinformation, proxies and electoral interference, are quite simply evidence of ongoing malign behaviour, and they are unacceptable. The objectives of the UK are twofold: to work with our partners in NATO to try to contribute to a de-escalation of this situation, and to also work on a bilateral front with Ukraine, which is a good friend and a bilateral defence partner, to reassure it that we stand with Ukraine and will do everything we can to support it.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, referred to the Budapest memorandum, which is indeed still relevant. We believe that both the UK and the US should insist that Russia stand by the international agreements it has signed up to. That includes the commitment it made in 1994 to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Indeed, the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement signed with Ukraine on 8 October 2020 reaffirms the UK’s commitment to the security assurances enshrined in the Budapest memorandum of 5 December 1994.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, asked about the role of NATO and its objectives. I simply repeat what the dual-track approach of NATO has been: a combined deterrence, defence and dialogue approach, where allies speak with one voice. That was delivered at the meeting of the NATO-Russia Council last week. The message was clear: Russia must de-escalate and respect its international commitments, to which we have all freely agreed. To reassure the noble Lord, NATO stands ready to engage in constructive dialogue with Russia to discuss mutual security concerns and has invited Russia for further sessions with the NATO-Russia Council to discuss arms control, risk reduction and transparency measures.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, exhorted the Government to try harder. I accept that challenge; I do not think anyone pretends to have the monopoly of knowledge or wisdom in this situation. I reassure your Lordships that the Government will strenuously do everything they can to promote dialogue and discussion. Indeed, the Defence Secretary in the other place confirmed that he had invited his opposite number in Russia to come to London for discussions.
I agree completely with the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, on his reference to dialogue. He is absolutely right: it is essential that, whatever else may be going on, we try to keep channels of communication open. I reassure him that, certainly, that is what we are striving to do within defence. He is absolutely correct that the only way to achieve these objectives of de-escalation and a move to a more constructive, intelligent conversation about Russia and how these issues might be addressed in a peaceful manner is by such dialogue.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, asked about the UK military support to Ukraine. As he will know, since 2015, we have been engaged in Operation Orbital. That is all about helping Ukraine to build resilience within its armed forces, and it includes, importantly, the Ukrainian Naval Capabilities Enhancement Programme, which was signed in June of last year. That was a significant agreement because it affirmed that the UK was open to supplying Ukraine with defensive weapon systems as well as training. That principle remains.
The noble Lord asked specifically whether the weapons that have been delivered are usable only in a defence situation. I wish to reassure him that the answer is yes. They are not for use by either the UK or Ukraine in an aggressive capacity. They are simply there to support Ukraine in self-defence if that need arises. In response to the noble Lord’s concern—we had an interesting discussion yesterday about AUKUS, which was positive and well-informed—I say to him that NATO is regarded as a cornerstone of the UK MoD’s approach to defence and to our capability.
The noble Lord, Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, gave a very accurate analysis of where we have got to, and how he imputes to the Russian Government certain motives and intentions. No one is going to disagree with that analysis. In particular, in relation to sanctions, I reassure the noble Lord that the UK is looking at a package of broad and high-impact sanctions to raise the cost of any further aggressive actions. He is probably aware that we already have in place sanctions in respect of Crimea and the wider activities by Russia in relation to Ukraine. My understanding is that we currently have sanctions on 180 individuals in Russia and 48 entities for the destabilisation of Crimea and Sebastopol and eastern Ukraine. Those economic measures include restrictions on parts of Russia’s finance, energy and defence sectors and trade and investment measures in place.
The noble Lord, Lord Campbell, also raised the position of Ukraine in respect of the Euro-Atlantic community and its legitimate right to seek to be part of that. That simply reaffirms what was agreed back in Bucharest, that NATO understood that both Ukraine and Georgia, as sovereign states, should have the right to determine what relationships they seek, and that is absolutely correct. He sought reassurance about unity of purpose within NATO. As I indicated to the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, particularly with reference to the recent NATO-Russia Council meeting, that unity of purpose is there.
In relation to the EU, yes, we support the Minsk agreements and the efforts by Germany, France and the Normandy Format to try to take matters forward. That has proved challenging, because Russia is declining to play its part in that. Indeed, one of the difficulties is that France and Germany have a role as mediators, and Ukraine and Russia have roles as parties to the conflict, but Russia refuses to accept that. That is proving to be a roadblock in the process. Indeed, I understand that, very recently, the European Council extended its EU restrictions on Russia. That suggests that the EU has a concern about the continuing situation.
In conclusion, as the noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, have recognised, there is concerted effort by not just the United Kingdom but the United States, NATO, France, Germany and the EU to assist in the de-escalation of this tension, but there is a united desire to support the absolute, fundamental right of Ukraine to be treated with respect and correctly under international law as a sovereign state and not to find itself subject to threat and illegal incursions. That is something that the international community regards as fundamentally important, and it is why we will all work in unison to do our very best to support Ukraine.
Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)
My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, outlined very clearly President Putin’s intent. I also commend my right honourable friend Ben Wallace’s article yesterday in the Times. Like all bullies, President Putin responds to only one thing, strength, and so I welcome yesterday’s Statement. Equally, as NATO, we must not be seen to provoke Russia—let us be clear, President Putin will go a long way to be provoked—but nor is it our right to somehow negotiate away Ukraine’s right to join NATO if it wishes to do so. If we have yet more requests from Ukraine for, potentially, weapons with which to defend itself or other training, will we maintain an open mind and support our ally in its time of need?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
Yes, I reassure my noble friend that we will do everything we can to support Ukraine. As I said earlier, Ukraine is a friend and an important bilateral defence partner. In terms of the agreements it has reached in its own right, and legitimately so, with the international community and NATO, it has positions which should be respected. Like NATO, the UK will continue to review, assess and monitor, and we shall continue to respond, in conjunction with our allies, in the best way we can.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, I welcome the Statement and particularly that, of its three pages, one is devoted to dialogue, which is the only way in which the dreadful current set of circumstances will be resolved. However, I am disappointed that, despite the fact that the paragraphs on dialogue begin with the sentence
“I must stress that no one wants conflict”,
there is no recognition that there is existing conflict. There is conflict going on in the eastern part of Ukraine and, despite the refreshment of a ceasefire on 22 December, violations of that ceasefire continue. In fact, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s daily report for today says that it recorded, in the last 24 hours, 113 ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region. In the Luhansk region,
“the Mission recorded two ceasefire violations, including one explosion”
and 144 violations in the previous 24 hours. There is existing conflict going on and people are suffering. There are missing persons and all the aspects of violence that we have come to know in many countries across the world recently. My question for the Ministry of Defence, the Minister, the Secretary of State and the Government is: what are we doing to try to lessen or cease that violence for the people who are living with it daily? It is so bad that that amazing mine-clearance organisation, the HALO Trust, has had to suspend its work in the region at the moment.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble Lord makes a very important point. He is right that we should remember that a considerable part of Ukraine continues to be illegally occupied, with the negative and unwelcome consequences to which he referred.
The United Kingdom, as the noble Lord will be aware, has supported Ukraine for over 30 years since it became a sovereign state in its own right. Since 2015, through Operation Orbital the UK has done what it can to help build what I described earlier as the resilience of the Ukrainian armed forces. We have provided defensive training to over 22,000 Ukrainian troops since 2015. That includes the maritime training initiative, to which I referred, to help the Ukrainian navy rebuild its capacity.
In June last year we entered into an agreement with Ukraine through a memorandum of implementation, which affirmed the UK as open to supply Ukraine with defensive weapons systems as well as training. That principle remains. The noble Lord will possibly be aware that we signed a UK export finance treaty last November to finance the Ukraine naval capabilities enhancement project. That treaty amounts to £1.7 billion of assistance.
That is meaningful help and it might assist your Lordships to understand that this is not just empty rhetoric. The proposal is that there will be missile sale and integration on new and in-service Ukrainian navy patrol and airborne platforms, including a training and engineering support package. There is a going to be development and joint production of eight fast-missile warships with modern defensive armaments. We will also assist with the creation of a new naval base in the Black Sea as a primary fleet for Ukraine and a new base in the Sea of Azov.
What the UK is trying to do in a holistic manner is to come to Ukraine’s aid in helping it to be more ready to defend itself. I think the UK can be satisfied with, and justly admired for, the help it has been giving. It has not been doing that alone, of course. As the noble Lord will be aware, the United States has been assisting as well.
The United Kingdom is very conscious of the extremely sensitive position in which Ukraine finds itself, not least because of the issues to which the noble Lord referred, but we are doing a number of very substantive things to assist it.
Lord Alton of Liverpool (CB)
The Minister was right to emphasise the importance of respecting the sovereignty of Ukraine. In 1989, I was privileged to be in Lviv in Ukraine at the time of the pro-democracy rallies there, when they were trying to throw off the hegemony of the Kremlin. Does the Minister agree that part of the Putin narrative is the recreation of the Soviet Union and that his regime is pushing in every direction it can to try to achieve that?
I particularly welcome what the Secretary of State for Defence said yesterday in pointing to Vladimir Putin’s 7,000-word essay, which has ethnonationalism at its heart. Only one paragraph mentions what the Secretary of State calls
“the straw man of NATO”;
in other words, this is an excuse to talk about NATO when there is a whistle blowing from the Kremlin, trying to whip up ancient hatreds.
Are we western nations not in danger of falling into the Byzantine trap? The Byzantines, when they had the enemy at the gates, were arguing about the gender of angels. Is it not important that, despite the vested interests the West has in gas, oil and the rest, we stand together and recognise what the people of Ukraine fought for in 1989 in seeking their independence and stand with them at this terrible time of trial?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I think very few people would disagree with the noble Lord’s sentiments and I thank him for his reference to the comments by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State. I think an earlier contributor mentioned his article in the Times yesterday. I thought it was an extremely helpful analysis and a very clear illustration that in the West we totally understand what is happening and see through it. I think there is a need for that candour and that rigour.
I feel that in the current situation there is a need to be absolutely focused on where the immediate threat lies. As we speak, something like 100,000 Russian military are amassed on the borders of Ukraine. That is the actual threat and that is why we have to address our thoughts to how best we support Ukraine with a variety of measures, whether that is what we were doing in supplying from the UK these weapons that can be used in a defensive capacity, whether it is that we propose to apply sanctions if anything unacceptable happens, or whether it is that NATO and the EU are united as to a response against anything that President Putin may be minded to do which, quite simply, is unacceptable, contravenes international law and is an affront to the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine.
Lord Lea of Crondall (Non-Afl)
My Lords, just over 100 years ago, Europe descended into war when no one wanted that sort of escalation. On that or any similar analogy, how can you ever get into a mode of de-escalation, which the Minister referred to? I do not disagree with anything that has been said this evening, but I press her on the point that I am raising, which has not been addressed: how do the Government think that de-escalation can come about in any way, given the pride all around? In 1,000 years of Russian history, Ukraine was always part of the Kievan Rus, and Kiev is in Ukraine. There was also the Battle of Balaclava and War and Peace, which every Russian child has read. In this country, where I live, all the roads are named after Balaclava or somewhere else in the Crimean War.
Consistent with not playing chicken or being the one that looks scared, how can we get to practical de-escalation? That is a simple question, and I would like to hear a little more from the Minister on how we get to a scenario with a degree of de-escalation—or is that just a pipe dream?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
It need not be a pipe dream, but it requires both a recognition by President Putin that he seems determined to pursue a provocative and dangerous route and an understanding by him that little—nothing—positive is to be gained by that and that he has to play his part as an international leader, which one assumes he wishes to be recognised as, and agree to enter into what the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, wisely alluded to: dialogue. I totally agree with the noble Lord that dialogue is the only way to address de-escalation. We require President Putin to play his part.
It is important to say that our divergence, as the United Kingdom, is with the Russian Government, not the Russian people. We have had a very happy history of sharing many things in common with them, but we certainly do not welcome the current relationship that has emerged in relation to the Russian Government, induced by the aggressive and provocative actions of President Putin. So I say to the noble Lord: it is difficult.
Yesterday, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State said in the other place that there is a “gap”. It need not be unbridgeable. To echo what the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, said, we all have to use every ounce of energy we possess to keep trying harder to keep doors open and to persuade President Putin to understand that this route will not enhance Russia or be positive for him—and to understand that he should consider the legitimate position of Ukraine and agree to come to the international fora and discuss his concerns. That is what we are determined to try to encourage.
Lord Austin of Dudley (Non-Afl)
My Lords, can the Minister assure us that the Government are drawing up a much tougher list of sanctions and asset freezes for anyone connected with Putin and his dictatorship—people in the Russian Government and parliament—including excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system? Can she assure us that reports from the last few days that that is off the table are not true and that the international community will exclude Russia from the SWIFT banking system?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As I said earlier, the UK is looking at a package of broad and high-impact sanctions to raise the cost of any further aggressive actions by President Putin. I cannot comment on the detail of what these proposals are, but we are ready to act—and, as my right honourable friend in the other place indicated yesterday, we are not alone. A range of sanctions is available that are going to be enacted if there is any deterioration in the situation.
Lord Berkeley (Lab)
There are terrible things going on in Belarus, between Belarus and Poland. I have some friends in the Baltic states who are reporting similar troop build-ups along the frontiers with Russia there. I suspect similar things are happening towards the south, east of the Black Sea. Are the Government aware of Mr Putin’s attempts, shall we say, to recreate the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and what are we doing about it? Are we just going to wait till it gets worse?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The activities of NATO in recent years have included a much more forward presence in the Baltic area, in which the United Kingdom plays an important part. We are alert, as is NATO, to anything which may compromise Euro-Atlantic security. If we are aware of any proposal which would compromise that security, we will, in conjunction with our allies and partners in NATO, consider how best to respond to that.
Viscount Stansgate (Lab)
My Lords, a few minutes ago in Berlin, the Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said that the risk of conflict is real. Does the Minister agree? Can the Minister tell the House what discussions are being held by the British Government with NATO right now? In respect of what may happen in the future, I—like many noble Lords—worry about miscalculation. If President Putin makes the grave error of invading Ukraine, could the Minister comment on the possible risks that UK personnel, who have been helping the Ukrainian forces to train, might become embroiled in direct conflict with forces from Russia?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As has been made clear, we have a training presence in Ukraine, Operation Orbital. In respect of the announcement, the subject of this Statement, which my right honourable friend dealt with in the other place, it is very clear that we will have a small training presence for a short period of time in relation to the pieces of equipment that we are proposing to deliver to Ukraine. We are constantly in discussion with allies and with NATO. We recognise that that is the only, and best, way to try to ensure that everyone has the unity of purpose that was referred to earlier. That is extremely important.
Baroness Helic (Con)
My Lords, I welcome yesterday’s Statement. It is refreshing to see western unity when it comes to defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an ally. There is another country that is in the Kremlin’s sights, Bosnia-Herzegovina, where the Russians are trying to open another front. Unfortunately, there is not the same unity in response. We have been lagging behind the United States in responding by applying sanctions, and our European allies are split down the middle, with some, such as Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, openly supporting Russian interests in the Balkans. Will the Minister tell the House how we can work better with our allies, and show a unity of purpose regarding this country as well?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I reassure my noble friend that we take the situation in the western Balkans very seriously. We are regularly engaged with the western Balkan countries, not least with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and we have ministerial engagement on a regular basis with these countries. We try to ensure that we support resilience; we provide training and advice, and we try to do everything we can to encourage harmony and stability. I reassure my noble friend that there is very close communication with the western Balkan states, and we regard that as important, because the area is of strategic significance.