Dr Lewis
My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and he made a very useful contribution to the questioning of Mark Sedwill on 18 December. The reason I have not really mentioned Ministers is that, frankly, Ministers do not seem to be having much of a role in this, either. What I did not say, because I did not want to dwell too long on it, is that the stand-off between the Chiefs of Staff and the Foreign Office in 1944 was finally resolved when it went all the way up to Churchill, who finally gave the Chiefs of Staff permission to continue doing the contingency planning for a possibly hostile Soviet Union that they wanted to do, and that the Foreign Office did not want them to do. The reality here is that there has been a loss of focus. There is no proper machinery, other than this rather woolly concept of a National Security Council, served by a secretariat, run effectively by the Cabinet Office.
In conclusion, what I really want to say is this. Constitutionally, we know what is right. That was confirmed when we spoke to the former Secretary of State for Defence in the Defence Committee and he was attended by a senior MOD official. We asked him, “Is it still the case that the Chiefs of Staff—the heads of the armed forces—retain the right to go directly to No. 10 if they think the danger to the country is such that they have to make direct representations?” The answer was yes, it is. But what is the point of their having that right if they are not actually allowed to do the job of planning the strategies and doing what they used to do as a Committee —serving as the military advisers to the Government? As my hon. Friend the Member for North Wiltshire (James Gray) says, ultimately, the Government always have the right to accept or reject such military advice as they get from the service chiefs, but the service chiefs ought to be in a position to give that advice.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence (Mr Tobias Ellwood)
My right hon. Friend is coming to his peroration, and I want to go back to his initial point, if I may try your patience, Madam Deputy Speaker. The important point, which was also raised by the hon. Member for Gedling (Vernon Coaker), was the comparison between defence, education and health spending going back a couple of decades. Of course we have had the cold war demise, but I would recommend that hon. Members read the Prime Minister’s speech at the Guildhall in November, which talks about the new threats that are coming round. I pose the question: as we try and passionately make the case for the necessary funding for our armed forces, would it be easier for that case to be made if the passion and enthusiasm for our armed forces on the doorstep, as we campaign for general elections and so on, was comparable with that for health and education? I pose that question because I think there is a role for all of us to play in confirming what status our armed forces should have in future.
Dr Lewis
I am grateful to the Minister for making that point in that way, and nobody could be doing more than he is, within the constraints of his office, to make the case. We all know that.
The reality is that defence is always difficult to get funded in peacetime because it is analogous to paying the premiums on an insurance policy, and people are always reluctant to pay the premiums, although they are very glad to have paid them when the time comes to call in the policy because something adverse has occurred.
Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) (LD)
I rise as my party’s defence spokesman. It is important that I remind the House that my daughter is a serving officer in the armed forces. I share the trepidation of the hon. Member for North Wiltshire (James Gray) at having to speak after so many highly informed contributions.
I wish to use my constituency as the basis of my first point. It is no stranger to the armed forces: very near to where I live we have the RAF Tain weapons range; Cape Wrath is used every year for the Joint Warrior exercise; and the area has a long and close association with the armed forces, going back to the Lovat Scouts and the Seaforth Highlanders, through to the Royal Regiment of Scotland today. Traditionally, the Territorial Army has recruited extremely well in Wick, in the north of my constituency. The support for Army and RAF cadets is also very strong throughout my constituency. I applaud them and put on record my recognition of what they do and their contribution to the social cohesion of the area.
I am a great believer in the British public’s common sense. I know from having knocked on many doors that if we talk to people about the armed forces and say, “We have to defend ourselves,” they say, “That is exactly right.” I hope that the Government will decide to spend more on our armed forces, and I think they can take the British public with them, because ultimately the public recognise the need and the responsibility to do it.
For the enlightenment of the House, I should say in passing that I served in the Territorial Army myself. However, I cannot compete with the august rank and record of the hon. Members for Isle of Wight (Mr Seely), for North Wiltshire (James Gray) and for Barnsley Central (Dan Jarvis), or, indeed, the Minister. Nevertheless, if I had to present arms and my ancient frame would allow it, I could still do so.
My second point is based on my knowledge, through my own family, of what the situation was in Northern Ireland—I am sure that the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) will touch on this. In their time, both my brothers-in-law served in the Ulster Defence Regiment. Over a long and happy marriage, I saw the situation in Northern Ireland change from the troubles and murder—my wife comes from County Armagh, and I know about all this—to what we see today, and may God be thanked for that. The UDR, the armed forces, our intelligence services and the Special Air Service played the supreme role in defeating the terrorists on both sides of the divide. We should not forget that, but the point is this: God forbid we should ever again have a situation, either in the UK or close to our borders, in which we have to mobilise that sort of force, because I doubt we could do it. Other Members have hinted at that already. If we had to, some ask, could we refight the Falklands campaign? No, we could not. Enough said on that.
The point has been made, particularly by the hon. Member for West Dunbartonshire (Martin Docherty-Hughes), that our Navy is critically small right now. That was why, on Monday, I questioned the Minister about why so many of our ships were apparently tied up over Christmas and not available for service overseas. I share absolutely in what the hon. Member for North Wiltshire says about what he calls the high north. The hon. Member for West Dunbartonshire said that it was on our doorstep—as a matter of fact, representing Caithness and Sutherland, I can say that it is on my doorstep, if he does not mind me saying so. It is absolutely correct, as the hon. Member for North Wiltshire says, that the Russians are establishing their bases there. I am not advocating our going back to Scapa Flow, but we will have to think very carefully about the strategic positioning of our forces.
Cyber-security has already been touched on today. All I have to say is that there was a story in The Times today—perhaps it is a scare story—which said that our cyber-security could be breached to the extent that we could almost be fooled into launching a nuclear strike. Whether fact or fiction, that shows just how incredibly important cyber-security is.
Mr Ellwood
I feel obliged to intervene as a matter of national security to assure the House and the hon. Gentleman that robust measures are in place to ensure that the event that he has just talked about does not happen.
Douglas Ross
What I will never forgive is an SNP politician who sits in this House and has the opportunity to question Ministers at any time, but who instead decides to put out a press release launching another scare story about the future of a Moray base. It is very clear: we are preparing for this record investment in Poseidon P-8 aircraft at Lossiemouth, and I am sorry that the hon. Member for West Dunbartonshire chose to do that.
Mr Ellwood
I fear that we have moved away slightly from the measured tone of this debate. In the spirit of reconciliation, may I invite Scottish National party Members to write to me if they have legitimate questions on procurement issues such as this? I would be delighted to give them an answer, and perhaps they would then not feel the need to go through their local press.
Douglas Ross
I am very grateful to the Minister for that. In fact, I would have loved it if SNP Members had gone through their own local press, rather than mine in Moray.
I hope that we do not get too far away from consensus again, but I do want to mention the nat tax. Approximately 10,000 military personnel and 4,000 civilian employees working for the Ministry of Defence are based in Scotland, and the SNP plans to make Scotland the highest-taxed part of the United Kingdom, with everyone earning more than £24,000 paying more tax. I have been contacted by a number of constituents about that.
Chris Stephens
I fully agree with that point. Francis Tusa, a defence analyst, said that if anyone believes it is possible to build a general purpose frigate for £250 million they are guilty of a conspiracy of optimism. There is no defence expert who thinks that that is an appropriate price for building the general purpose frigate.
Mr Ellwood
I want to provide a bit of clarity on this important point, which is part of our shipbuilding strategy. Yes, there is a tentative price tag of £250 million, but each ship will be tailor-made for the order that we actually get. As the number of orders that we get goes up, the unit cost of the ships will go down. Of course there are ways of criticising that, and if Opposition Members have another strategy in mind, I invite them to suggest it; but I want to make it clear that this is something that we are doing, in advance, to utilise our friendships across the world to provide a capable ship that can be utilised in a number of maritime capabilities, depending on the details of the individual order.
Chris Stephens
I thank the Minister, who has been constructive, but I would gently say to him that there was a promise that 13 Type 26 frigates would be built, and that was cut to eight Type 26 frigates and five general purpose frigates, the purpose of which we do not yet know. He mentions orders. It seems to me the argument is that these general purpose frigates could be exported, but who would they be exported to? If we do not know the purpose, the role and the function, why would anybody anywhere else in the world buy a general purpose frigate? It makes no sense. When the Minister sums up, he may want to consider those issues.
The Government have a role to play in shipyard investment. The Ministry of Defence has talked, not just on the Clyde but at other shipyards too, about being more efficient, and if those shipyards are to be more efficient it means a very real investment in shipyard reconstruction and construction. When the former Secretary of State made his statement on the national shipbuilding strategy, he insisted that there was a frigate factory on the Clyde. While he was at the Dispatch Box, insisting that there was a frigate factory on the Clyde, representatives of the GMB trade union were taking journalists round the Clyde, showing them the site where that proposed frigate factory was supposed to be built, and it was rubble and ash.
We really need to get this right. I support the construction of a frigate factory, but it will need investment, and the Ministry of Defence has a real role to play in providing finance and money for that, because if it is insisting that shipyards should be more efficient and that they should reconstruct, it has a role to play. I hope that it will consider investing in a shipyard construction.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence (Mr Tobias Ellwood)
It is a real pleasure and an honour to respond to such a formidable debate, which has been detailed and truly constructive, and throughout much of it there has been a consensus on the direction in which we need to travel. I congratulate the hon. Member for Gedling (Vernon Coaker) on securing it and commend the Members throughout the House who have contributed —it is comforting and encouraging to know that hon. Members on both sides of the House can illustrate their case with such detail. In congratulating our brave and professional servicemen and women on what they do, may I also, on behalf of the whole House, express our gratitude to the families who support those in uniform, the cadets, who are the future of our armed forces, the reserves and the Royal Fleet Auxiliary Service? They all play an important role in defending our nation and reminding us of who we are.
There has been a Government reshuffle. I am delighted and honoured to continue in this role, but I want to take this opportunity to welcome the new Under-Secretary of State for Defence, my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb), and to wish all the best to my hon. Friend the Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin), who has moved to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. An SNP Member commented earlier on gender balance, and I am pleased to say that overall there has been a huge jump in the number of women who are Ministers, and let us not forget that we have a female Prime Minister—the second that the Conservative party has put forward.
The debate has focused on a number of areas: equipment and resources, defence expenditure and the size of our regular services. I will do my best to answer the questions that have been asked, but if I am unable to do them all justice, I will write to the hon. Members concerned—I am looking to the officials in the Box—and do my best to answer them in due course. Let me temper expectations, however, because I am unable to provide answers to some of the bigger questions on the capability review. Answers are coming and announcements will be made, so I ask Members to please be patient.
Before going into detail of the outputs, we should look at the bigger question, which I thought was wonderfully articulated by the hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent North (Ruth Smeeth). She asked what role we require our armed forces to play. Of course they must defend our skies and shores and the UK’s interests overseas, but do we aspire to partner with, train or lead other like-minded nations in dealing with the threats and challenges the world faces? Should our defence posture be limited to war fighting and defending, or should it include stabilisation and peacekeeping capabilities? With the conduct of war advancing and the battlefield becoming ever more complex, how do we respond to the new threats that the fast-changing technology is presenting?
As reflected in this debate, Britain aspires to act as a force for good on the international stage. We have the means and the aspiration to step forward when other nations might hesitate. That is all the more critical at a time when some nations are ignoring the international rules-based order that we helped to establish and that has served us well for decades, and other nations are adopting a more nationalist approach.
That is why UK forces are currently conducting, and contributing to, operations across the world. We are contributing to defeating Daesh in Iraq and Syria, we continue to help train troops in Afghanistan through Operation Resolute Support, and we are supporting the Ukrainian armed forces by training them in the challenges they face. We are involved in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, Somalia and South Sudan, and we are training the Libyan coastguard to respond to irregular migration in the Mediterranean and countering piracy off the horn of Africa. HMS Argyll and HMS Sutherland will both deploy to Asia-Pacific this year, and British military personnel will join military training on the Japanese mainland, underlining the UK’s commitment to peace and stability in the region.
The hon. Member for Barrow and Furness (John Woodcock) asked the important question of where this will leave us post Brexit. We will not have an EU membership card in our back pocket, but we remain a formidable force—the biggest force in Europe— and I believe that the coalition of the willing will still step forward to meet the challenges of today, just as when there was an Ebola crisis in west Africa it was us who stepped forward along with other nations that are not necessarily all active members of NATO. The same will continue into the future. It is a question of whether we have the capability and desire to step forward, rather than of what organisations we might or might not be part of.
The versatility of our armed forces is regularly demonstrated when they step forward to help, not just by responding in war-fighting and peacekeeping scenarios but also, as has been mentioned, by responding to events such as Hurricane Irma in the Caribbean, with 2,000 personnel deployed there to provide humanitarian aid and disaster response. Op Tempora is another example of responding, when the security threat at home changes and our police require support, as we saw last year. Our armed forces provide invaluable support, not always seen, to our intelligence agencies, embassies and overseas development efforts, as well as to our police forces and communities, often with little recognition. I know the House will join me in thanking them for their efforts.
This is a big year for the armed forces as we mark 100 years since the end of world war one, and, as has been mentioned, it is 100 years since the founding of the RAF, and we look forward to celebrating that, too.
Conor McGinn (St Helens North) (Lab)
I apologise to the House for missing today’s debate, but I and my hon. Friend the Member for Sedgefield (Phil Wilson) were on a visit to RAF Odiham with the armed forces parliamentary scheme. Will the Minister join me in praising the work done at that station both at home and abroad, notably in the alleviation of the destruction caused by Hurricane Irma last year? Does he also agree that the Chinook is a very versatile, robust platform and we should ensure it continues long into the future?
Mr Ellwood
I welcome the hon. Gentleman to the debate, and it is a pleasure to join him in paying tribute to RAF Odiham and all the RAF bases and the work the RAF does; this is going to be a fantastic year for the RAF. I encourage all Members to talk to their local authorities and ask what they might be doing to mark Armed Forces Day on 30 June this year. This is a great opportunity for us to make sure the nation and our local communities can celebrate what our armed forces do.
Mr Francois
I thank my right hon. and gallant Friend for giving way, and, like many others in this House, I am delighted that he remains in his place. I read his cogent article in The Sunday Telegraph about the many roles our armed forces perform, including in maintaining the economic wellbeing of our nation, not least as 90% of our trade comes by sea. Will he say something about the importance of that before he moves on to talk about equipment?
Mr Ellwood
I would be happy to do that. We perhaps take for granted how open our economy is, and how we require the freedom of the seas to ensure that we can trade and attract business here. There is now an entwined link between security and our economy, and we forget that at our peril. My right hon. Friend reminds us of this powerful point.
My hon. Friend the Member for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Andrew Bowie) went through a comprehensive list of our equipment. I feel that he must have copied my list! I will simply underline the fact that we have some amazing bits of equipment coming through as a result of our pledge to spend £178 billion. The aircraft carriers have been mentioned, as has the F-35B, of which 14 have now been delivered. We have heard about the Type 26, and we have had a good debate about the Type 31. We have also heard about the River class, and the Dreadnought programme is coming on line as well. In the Army, we have the Ajax armoured fighting vehicles; these were Scimitars and Samsons in old language, if my hon. Friend remembers them. In the RAF, we have the upgrade of the Typhoon, and the F-35 fifth-generation fighter is joining our armed forces as well.
Much of this debate has focused on expenditure. As has been mentioned a number of times, the Defence budget is £36 billion this year. We hold the fifth largest Defence budget in the world. The Government have made a commitment to increase this by 0.5% above inflation every year of this Parliament, so it will be almost £40 billion by 2021. The Secretary of State has expressed the view strongly in public that the capability review is a priority for the Ministry of Defence, and he will shortly outline in more detail the process of how we will move forward. The capability review was brought about because things had changed since the SDSR in 2015. We have had terrorist attacks on the mainland, and cyber-attacks, including on this very building. We have also seen resurgent nations not following international norms. It was rightly decided that this necessitated a review, to renew and reinforce our commitment to the UK’s position as a force for peace, stability and prosperity across the world.
James Gray
I am glad to hear that the Minister is taking the capability review so seriously. I want to ask one simple question. If the review comes to the conclusion that more defence spending is required, where will that extra money come from?
Mr Ellwood
My hon. Friend makes an important point. As I have said, it is for the Secretary of State to spell that out in more detail, and that will happen shortly, but that is the big question that we must ask ourselves as fiscal, and responsible, Conservatives. The money must come from somewhere, which is why we cannot simply rush in and say that it will be provided. The details need to come through, and I hope that we will hear more details from the Secretary of State in due course.
It is clear from the contributions that we have heard today, and also from the world around us, that the world does not stand still, and nor should we. We must be sure that we possess the right combination of conventional and innovative capabilities to meet the varied and diffuse threats that I have outlined. We must also retain our long-standing position as one of the world’s most innovative nations, and do more to harness the benefits of technological progress and reinforce our military edge. I can assure the House that the Ministry of Defence has no intention of leaving the UK less safe, or the brave men and women of our armed forces more vulnerable, as a result of this review.
Mr Ellwood
I will in a moment.
The House is well aware of my position on the size of the armed forces. I want to see the UK maintain its long-held military edge and its enduring position as a world leader in matters of defence and security. The Ministry of Defence and the Government as a whole share my ambition. I should also like to address the involvement of Ministers, and indeed generals and others in uniform, in the process. This has been run not just by the permanent secretary but by a team of generals. That point was touched on by the Chairman of the Defence Committee, and I give way to him now.
Dr Lewis
The Minister has just said that we will not be left more vulnerable. On 25 January last year, the then Defence Procurement Minister wrote to me to say that she could reassure me that the out-of-service dates for HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark remained 2034 and 2035 respectively, and that their roles remained vital. Surely that rules out the scrapping of those ships. They obviously still had a vital role to play in January last year. Why would their role be any less vital in January this year?
Mr Ellwood
I am grateful to my right hon. Friend. He asks an operational question about the amphibiosity of our capability. I stress to the House that we must maintain our amphibiosity, a capable Royal Marine presence and, dare I say it, a capable Para presence as well, so he can rest assured. I will not go any further than that because we are getting into the weeds of operational decisions, and more will become clear very soon.
John Spellar
Going back to the point made by the Chair of the Defence Committee, if the capability was vital last year, when we were given an end date, what has changed in the meantime to put that capability in any way in question?
Mr Ellwood
The right hon. Gentleman is trying to pre-empt the capability review and what will follow. All I can ask for is patience, because the answers will be forthcoming.
Turning to a couple of other contributions, this has been a tough time for recruitment and retention, and we should be honest about the challenges, something which my right hon. Friend the Member for Rayleigh and Wickford (Mr Francois) studied in detail in his report. Nevertheless, I am pleased to say that recruitment is moving forward. We do have to change our approach, and we need to recruit specialists as well, because the art of war is fundamentally changing. The requirements for what is needed on the battlefield mean that we should not necessarily have to train somebody from start to finish. It may be easier to have somebody with the technology, understanding or detailed knowledge instead. For example, a subject matter expert for a country in the middle east could be brought in and trained and then could join our armed forces to provide that intelligence detail. That is exactly what 77th Brigade does, and it provides huge value away from the teeth arms, with which the right hon. Member for Warley (John Spellar) and I are more familiar.
We need to adapt and to reflect society as a whole. We have now opened up all roles to women, and our new campaign has led to a rise in applications of 20% since 2016-17. Reserves are also up by almost 5% on last year. The offering must also change, and some worries have been raised about accommodation, but we are looking at a new accommodation model, and I am concerned about what is happening with Carillion. We need to give individuals more opportunity. Do they want to stay in a garrison, do they want to rent, or do they want to own their own house? That is what other people aspire to, so why should somebody who joins the armed forces not be able to do the same? That is what our accommodation model is looking at. Many hon. Members have participated in the passage of the Armed Forces (Flexible Working) Bill, which will allow somebody to step back from what they are doing in the armed forces for a period of time, perhaps to spend more time with their family or possibly to have a child. That proposal is proving hugely popular.
The enterprise approach is about attracting people on sabbatical, such as someone with a senior engineering, cyber or linguistic capability whom it would not be cost-effective for us to train from the bottom ranks all the way through. The veterans’ package has been mentioned, and I am proud of this Government’s work in supporting the armed forces covenant, which over 2,000 companies have signed. We also have the Veterans’ Gateway which, if hon. Members are not familiar with it, is the online portal that allows any individual to comprehend the myriad military-facing charities that are there to support our brave armed forces as they make the transition into civilian life. It is an excellent bit of work, and I recommend that all hon. Members look at it. Finally on that front, through our mental health strategy we are trying to remove the stigma from someone stepping forward if they are suffering from any form of mental health issue.
A couple of comments were made about the public sector. Pay is obviously up to the Armed Forces Pay Review Body, but the cap has been lifted and there is the freedom to go above 1%. However, it is for the pay review body to make recommendations.
The last contribution that I want to comment on came from my hon. Friend the Member for Isle of Wight (Mr Seely). His pertinent point was that if the armed forces are not being used, they can be perceived as redundant. As Sun Tzu wrote in “The Art of War”:
“Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”
Having an armed force, a posture and a strong capability that backs up our soft power can do much to influence the world around us without our having to leave it to war fighting or military engagement.
I would like to give a couple of minutes to the hon. Member for Gedling, who moved the motion, so I conclude by thanking all Members for their contributions. I hope the House will agree that we are deeply indebted to all those who choose to wear the uniform and, if required, stand in harm’s way in defence of our country and values and in aid of those in need across the world.
The professionalism of our defence people forms the hard power that is respected by our allies and feared by our adversaries, and it is that hard power that sits behind the country’s soft power that allows us to continue playing such an influential role on the world stage.
As the world moves faster and becomes more dangerous, we must not be naive about the durability of the relative peace that the UK has enjoyed over the past few decades. Our country, our open international economy and our values are vulnerable to a range of growing world threats that have no respect for our borders. It is critical that Britain’s defence posture remains credible and that we maintain our military edge. That is exactly what the Secretary of State is working to achieve.
I end by reminding the House that President Reagan said:
“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.”
Let us not take our ability to fight and the security we have for granted. All of us in this House should make the case for strong and credible defence.