The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)
My Lords, I shall now repeat as a Statement the Answer to an Urgent Question given earlier today by my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary on Russia’s announcement of the withdrawal of its forces from Syria. The Statement is as follows:
“We have, of course, seen the media reports of a Russian withdrawal of forces, including a report this morning that the first group of Russian planes has left the Hmeimim airbase to return to Russia. However, I should tell the House that, as far as I have been able to determine, none of the members of the International Syria Support Group had any advance notice of this Russian announcement, and we have yet to see any detailed plans behind Russia’s announcement yesterday.
We do not yet have any independent evidence to verify Russia’s claims that military withdrawals have already begun. We are monitoring developments closely, and it will be important to judge Russia by its actions. It is worth remembering that Russia announced a withdrawal of forces in Ukraine which later turned out merely to be a routine rotation of forces. If this announcement represents a genuine decision by Russia to continue to de-escalate the military conflict, ensure compliance with the cessation of hostilities and encourage the Syrian regime to participate in peace negotiations in good faith, it will be welcome.
Now is the time for all parties to focus on the political negotiations, which resumed in Geneva yesterday. Only a political transition away from Assad’s rule to a Government representative of all Syrians will deliver the peace Syrians so desperately need and so ardently desire and give us a Government in Damascus able to focus on defeating terrorism and rebuilding Syria. There can be no peace in Syria while Assad remains in power. Russia has unique influence to help to make the negotiations succeed, and we sincerely hope that it will use it.
Since it came into force on 27 February, the cessation of hostilities has resulted in a significant reduction in violence in Syria. However, there has been a significant number of reports of violations, including the continued use of barrel bombs, which we have been discussing with our partners in the ISSG ceasefire task force in Geneva. We have serious concerns that the Assad regime has been using the cessation of hostilities to pursue its military objectives and that it is not serious about political negotiations. Swift action to address these violations is therefore vital to reduce the violence and show the Syrian people, including the Syrian opposition, that both Russia and the Assad regime are abiding by the terms of the cessation of hostilities. Failure to do so threatens the prospects for continued political negotiations.
We look to Russia, as guarantor for the regime and its backers, to use its unique influence to ensure compliance and to make clear to the Assad regime its expectation that it must negotiate in good faith. After investing so much in Assad, Mr Putin must show the world that he can exercise control over his protégé. At the same time, we call for complete and unfettered humanitarian access across Syria and an end to all violations of international humanitarian law, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
We are relieved that desperately needed aid convoys are now arriving in some besieged areas of Syria, including some of those named in the International Syria Support Group agreement of 11 February in Munich. It is imperative that that continues and, in particular, that access is provided to Darayya, which has not yet seen any deliveries. The Assad regime must lift all sieges and grant full and sustained humanitarian access across Syria.
No one will be more delighted than I if, after five months of relentless bombing, Russia is genuinely winding down its military support for the brutal Assad regime. But, as in all matters relating to Russia, it is the actions rather than the words that count. We shall be watching carefully over the coming days to see whether the announcement’s potential promise turns into reality”.
My Lords, that concludes the Statement.
Baroness Morgan of Ely (Lab)
My Lords, we were all concerned by reports of indiscriminate attacks by the Russians in Syria, which, according to some human rights organisations, have caused the deaths of more than 1,700 civilians. The current cessation of hostilities, and the announcement of the withdrawal by Russian troops, therefore comes as a welcome break in a war that has lasted longer than the First World War and claimed the lives of more than 250,000 people.
What is being done to monitor the ceasefire? Will the withdrawal of Russian aircraft change the type of missions which the RAF and others in the anti-Daesh coalition are undertaking in Syria—and, if so, how? Finally, the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria is due this week to present its report on war crimes committed by all sides. What prospect does the Minister see for any suspected war crimes being referred to the International Criminal Court, given that Syria is not a signatory to the Rome statute?
Earl Howe
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness. As the Statement makes clear, we have issued a cautious welcome to the Russian announcement. But it remains to be seen, over the coming days, how that announcement will convert into practical action— and, if so, what action. The noble Baroness is quite right that we have seen the predominance of Russian air strikes directed against targets other than Daesh. To that extent, we welcome Russia’s announcement of the withdrawal of its air forces. It is, however, fair to say that, since the ceasefire was announced some days ago, we have seen an adherence to it, as regards the moderate Syrian opposition, by Russian forces. We shall, of course, monitor the ceasefire very closely and there are various systems in place to do this. To the extent that we are aware of violations, we shall make sure to raise those in the appropriate quarters, not least in Geneva as the talks proceed.
As regards the RAF, we do not see the Russian announcement as affecting the objectives that the RAF has been given or the extent of its operations over both Iraq and Syria. What the Russian action may do, however, is make that situation slightly less complicated than it has been hitherto in terms of the crowded airspace that we have seen.
War crimes have been very much in our sights since the start of the Syrian hostilities. While they are not the prime focus of the negotiations in Geneva—there are other hurdles to get over before we reach that point—the noble Baroness can be sure that the issue will not be off our list of actions.
Baroness Jolly (LD)
My Lords, I thank the Minister for repeating the Answer and welcome the promising news of aid convoys. Russia has confirmed that it will still be operating from its naval and air bases in Syria, so might air operations still be anticipated against opposition forces?
Earl Howe
This is the very question that we are wrestling with. It is too early, frankly, to say what the Russians will be leaving behind in the way of assets. As the noble Baroness rightly points out, the Russians still have their naval base at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base, with a significant air defence network in place, and, no doubt, protective forces for all those installations. Whether the Russians will be in a position to resume air activities and strikes at will is something that we shall need to assess as the picture becomes clearer.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
Will my noble friend accept that nothing in Russia is, or ever has been, what it seems, and that the principle of maskirovka—that is, saying one thing and doing something quite different—is very well established? Can he tell us whether there has been any direct attempt at any level in government in the past 24 hours to find out from either Mr Putin, Mr Lavrov or the Kremlin policymakers exactly what they intend and are aiming to do? There are times when a direct dialogue, confusing though it is, is the most valuable way of deciding what steps next to take.
Earl Howe
It may be possible for me to give a more substantive answer to my noble friend as the days proceed. But he is absolutely right in what he says about our experience of the Russians, which is why I made it clear earlier that we need to judge Russia by its actions and not by its words. President Putin has committed to a political resolution to the conflict through UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Russia’s co-chairmanship of the International Syria Support Group is further evidence of that. President Putin told European leaders on 4 March that he agreed that now was the time to focus on the political process. He backed the timetable agreed in Vienna of a political agreement within six months and a schedule for the preparation of a new constitution and elections within 18 months. We are saying to Russia that it must use its influence to end the conflict once and for all, rather than prolong it, and we hope it chooses to do so.
Lord Alton of Liverpool (CB)
My Lords, reverting to the question that was asked by the noble Baroness from the Opposition Front Bench a few moments ago, has the Minister had a chance to consider the unanimous resolution passed yesterday by the House of Representatives of the American Congress, declaring events to be a genocide, following in the footsteps of both the European Parliament and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe? Does he not agree that the time now is right for this country to consider passing such a resolution, invoking whatever judicial procedures are necessary to bring that about, and to bring the matter up at the Security Council, pressing for a referral to the International Criminal Court, in the light of the monstrous acts of barbarism by ISIS and others that have taken place?
Earl Howe
My Lords, we have noted with deep concern and condemnation the actions to which the noble Lord refers. We have also noted the resolution that he mentioned. As he knows, however, it has been the consistent position of the Government, and that of Governments before us, that any resolution declaring genocide is a matter for the judicial system rather than the Government. But that does not alter the facts on the ground, which are truly dire. We are very concerned that these matters should be given the due weight and prominence that they undoubtedly deserve in the negotiations.
Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)
My Lords, it is early days yet, but what is the Government’s best analysis of the fact that there was no consultation, which hardly suggests that the Russians are prepared to play the team game in respect of the peace process? Is there not a danger that the Russians’ withdrawal, and possibly political differences with the Assad regime, might embolden ISIL and push back Assad’s forces?
Earl Howe
The noble Lord is quite right that there are a number of possible explanations for the Russians’ decision. We cannot yet read the correct one. All we can do at the moment is to say publicly, as we have, that if President Putin means what he says and Russia truly puts its weight behind holding the Assad regime and its allies to the terms of the cessation of hostilities, and to participating in the peace negotiations in good faith, then we hope that rapid progress towards a peaceful resolution can be achieved. I am afraid that it is too early for us to diagnose the precise trigger for the Russian actions; we can only monitor.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, is it not necessary to retain a sense of realism about these matters, not least because Mr Putin has achieved all his strategic objectives? He has managed to buttress the Assad regime, at least for the moment. As has already been pointed out, he has retained the military base at Latakia and the port of Tartus. There can be no settlement of the Syrian question without the endorsement of Russia. It may not be game, set and match to Mr Putin, but it is most certainly game and set.
Earl Howe
My Lords, I can only agree with a great deal of what the noble Lord has said, but one cannot help observing at the same time that Russia’s stated aims and its actions in Syria have been at odds with one another. It remains to be seen whether its withdrawal leaves the Syrian regime in a stronger or weaker position. I am not so sure that the noble Lord is right that the Russians have left at an optimal moment from the point of view of the Assad regime. Certainly, Assad is stronger than he was six months ago, but his position is by no means secure.