Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their estimate of the change in United Kingdom per capita gross domestic product that they would expect over the next five-year forecast period if net migration was at 165,000 a year.

The government does not forecast either UK GDP or GDP per capita. The independent OBR in the March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) used the central ONS migration population projection. The ONS central migration projection is for net migration of 165,000 a year in 2018/19 and 2019/20. In the March 2015 EFO the OBR forecast that UK GDP per capita for those aged 16 and over will increase by 9.2% total between 2014 and 2019.

In order to inform policy making, the government reviews and notes the wider evidence on the economic and productivity impacts of immigration on an ongoing basis. This evidence base includes the wider academic literature, and a range of reports commissioned or produced by the government looking at specific impacts, for example those produced by the independent Migration Advisory Committee. In addition, policies that influence migration are assessed using the government's impact assessment process which models the economic impact of the policy change using assumptions based on a range of evidence and the academic literature. Home Office Impact Assessments are published on gov.uk.