Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government, following reports that public expectations for inflation have fallen to the lowest level in over two years, what assessment they have made of the impact of falling expectations on (1) wage growth trends, and (2) employment dynamics; and what steps they are taking to address any potential challenges in sustaining wage growth while maintaining price stability.

Inflation has more than halved, falling from its peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 3.4% in February 2024 and nominal whole economy total pay has fallen from a peak of 8.9% in the three months to June to 5.6% in the three months to January 2024.

In the three months to January 2024 the unemployment rate was 3.9%, up by 0.1ppt on the year but low by historical standards. The OBR forecast that there will be a moderate rise in unemployment to a peak of 4.5% in Q4 2024 before declining to 4.1% by 2028.

Whilst inflation has fallen it still remains above the 2% target. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) continues to have the government’s full support as it takes action to sustainably return it to target.