Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of recent economic analysis concerning the UK’s inflation outlook and associated risks to economic growth; and how this is being factored into fiscal and economic planning.

Forecasting the UK economy, including the outlook for inflation and economic growth, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The government set out how the economic outlook is factored into fiscal and economic planning it its autumn budget published on 26 November. Key points include:

- According to the OBR, inflation is past its peak and measures taken by the government will reduce inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026-27, including by lowering energy bills by around £150 from next April for the average household, and freezing regulated rail fares and prescription charges.

- The Chancellor has reaffirmed the Bank of England’s 2% Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) inflation target.

- While the Bank has overall responsibility for returning inflation to target, the government is also fully committed to tackling inflation. The most effective lever to achieve this is through responsible fiscal strategy.

- Stable prices give businesses the confidence to invest and supports the independent BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who have cut Bank Rate six times since the election.