Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the report by the Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, published in October, which anticipates exports falling as a share of the overall economy in the next five years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is independent of Ministers and any views published are their own.

Since November 2016, the OBR has not assumed any one particular outcome to EU exit negotiations but has based its forecasts on broad-brush assumptions regarding Brexit that are consistent with a range of possible outcomes, as well as judgements about the economy following the referendum.

In its October 2018 forecast, the OBR have included a two-year transition period. After this they assume leaving the EU will reduce trade intensity which affects both imports and exports with a broadly offsetting impact on net trade. In its latest forecast, the OBR also revised down its forecast for world trade growth, contributing to a downward revision in UK export market growth in the near term. These factors contribute to the decline in exports as a share of GDP.

Going forward, the Government will continue to provide support for UK exporters through the Department for International Trade by encouraging more businesses to export, providing information, advice and practical assistance on exporting, connecting UK businesses to overseas buyers, and putting finance at the heart of our offer through UK Export Finance.