Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what information her Department holds on the reasons for the Office for Budget Responsibility's projected fall in tobacco revenue between (a) 2022-23 and (b) 2023-24; and if she will review the tobacco excise model.

HMRC publishes commentary on tobacco duty receipts with the Tobacco Bulletin - Tobacco statistics commentary April 2025 - GOV.UK. The 12% decrease in tobacco duty receipts between 2022/23 and 2023/24 was primarily driven by falling cigarette receipts (£7,568 million to £6,535 million).

The Office for Budget Responsibility discusses drivers of tobacco duty receipts in relation to the tobacco duty forecast on their webpage - Tobacco duties - Office for Budget Responsibility.

Receipts are driven by inflation (CPI and RPI), real household consumption and underlying trends in tobacco consumption.

The downward trend in tobacco consumption has accelerated in recent years, partly reflecting changing attitudes and the increasing popularity of e-cigarettes.

The Office for Budget Responsibility regularly reviews its forecasting methodology.