Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment his Department has made of the impact of the changes to employer National Insurance contributions introduced in April 2025 on (a) employment costs, (b) operating costs and (c) prices in the retail sector.

In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the impact that the increase in employer NICs would have on labour supply. In their latest forecast (taking into account all government policies expected to have a significant impact), the OBR expect that employment levels will rise in every year of the forecast, reaching 35.3m in 2030-31.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer; the economic impacts of the policy; and the impacts on individuals, businesses and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.