Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, what assessment he has made of the potential impact of recent changes to the eligibility criteria for the Winter Fuel Payment on trends in the level of pensioners living in (a) relative and (b) absolute poverty.

On 19 November, Secretary of State wrote to the Work and Pensions Select Committee to share internal government modelling produced by the Department outlining estimates of the number of pensioners estimated to move into poverty as a result of the policy change. This letter is available here Winter Fuel Payments eligibility change - Letter from the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.

The latest modelling shows that compared to the numbers that would have been in poverty without this policy, it is estimated that:

(a) there will be an additional 50,000 pensioners in relative poverty after housing costs in 2024/25, 2025/26 and 2027/28 and an additional 100,000 pensioners in relative poverty after housing costs in 2026/27, 2028/29 and 2029/30.

(b) for all other measures of poverty, it is estimated that there will be an additional 50,000 pensioners in poverty each year from 2024/25 to 2029/30.

The poverty impacts represent the change in the numbers in poverty as a result of the policy change only. They are not an estimate of the change in overall poverty each year or over time and should not be added together or interpreted as cumulative data.

It's important to note that this modelling is subject to a range of uncertainties meaning the poverty impacts are rounded to the nearest 50,000 individuals and the nearest 0.1 percentage point which should be taken into account when interpreting the results. This means that small variations in the underlying numbers impacted can lead to much larger changes in the rounded headline numbers.

The modelling does not account for any other measures announced at the Autumn Budget. The modelling also does not include any impacts on Pension Credit take-up as a result of the changes to Winter Fuel Payment eligibility.

The Prime Minister has been clear that means-testing the Winter Fuel Payment is not a decision that the Government wanted to take but given the £22 billion black hole in the economy, tough choices had to be made to fix the foundations and restore economic stability to make everyone better off in the long term.

Last year Winter Fuel Payments cost around £2 billion and were paid to pensioners regardless of their income. Given the dire state of the public finances the Government has inherited, it’s right that the Government targets support to those who need it most while the Government continues our work to stabilise the economy.

But the Government will continue to stand behind vulnerable households this winter, including through delivering the £150 Warm Home Discount for low-income households from October and extending the Household Support Fund with £421 million to ensure local authorities can support vulnerable people and families. The Government will also ensure around 1.3 million households in England and Wales will continue to receive up to £300 in Winter Fuel Payments, and the new state pension will increase by around £470 next year, which will significantly outstrip any loss for pensioners of the winter fuel payments.

In addition, the Government and industry have worked together to deliver a £500m Winter Support Commitment for customers, which will help customers most in need by providing credit on bills, enhanced debt write-off schemes, and increased funding for charity partners to target hard to reach customers.

The Government continues to urge anyone who thinks they may be entitled to Pension Credit to check now, as all eligible claims can be backdated, and anyone who makes a successful claim will receive their payment. Over a million pensioners will still receive the Winter Fuel Payment and our drive to boost Pension Credit take up has already seen a 145% increase in claims. Anyone who makes a successful claim for Pension Credit before 21 December and meets the eligibility criteria will receive both Pension Credit and a Winter Fuel Payment, and the Government has deployed more than 500 additional staff to process the increase in Pension Credit claims.