Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate she has made of the total value of increased employer national insurance contributions from outsourced private suppliers within the prison and probation service for the next 12 months.

The latest forecasts for tax revenues were published alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) October Economic and Fiscal Outlook. These forecasts are based on economic determinants, including wage growth and employment levels. Detailed tax receipts forecasts can be found here: Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2024 - Office for Budget Responsibility.

A Tax Information and Impact Note that covers the employer NICs changes was published by HMRC on 13 November.