Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill

William Bain Excerpts

Monday 21st January 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr Redwood]

That is not my case at all. My case is that the Government inherited an impossible financial position: the public sector was spending and borrowing far too much and the economy had been performing very badly, with a collapse in living standards towards the end of Labour’s period in office that was the biggest that any of us in this House had witnessed in our lifetimes.

My right hon. and hon. Friends on the Front Bench are trying desperately to come up with a series of policies that promote growth and restore a greater degree of normality. The Committee must recognise that the model that sustained growth from 1945 through to 2007 was comprehensively broken when Labour broke the banks and nationalised them. Until we sort that mess out, we will be dealing with very unpopular and difficult choices, whoever is in government.

[Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab)]

I know that the right hon. Gentleman always reads his economic documents, so why does he disagree with the view expressed by the Chancellor when he came to office in 2010 and by the IMF now that the automatic stabilisers in our economy should operate unimpeded?

[Mr Redwood]

If the hon. Gentleman looks again at the numbers in the Budget Red Book, he will see that the automatic stabilisers have been more than functioning. Under this Government, public spending has gone up considerably while borrowing has remained at extremely high levels. The borrowing levels the Government inherited were off the chart compared with those in any previous cycle we have witnessed in the British economy. Levels of public borrowing are still well above the peaks in previous cycles. The hon. Gentleman must understand that the numbers show that plenty of automatic stabilisers are in operation—the question he needs to answer is why they are not working. Of course, they are not working because of the other problems that have been inherited, such as the broken banks, the difficulties with tax rates and the large structural deficit. Those are all part of the problem and we can debate them at another time during a general debate on the economy.

The Government are attempting, through their tax and benefit changes, to tackle the problem of people asking, “Why work?” I have two bits of advice for my right hon. and hon. Friends on the Front Bench that might be more to the liking of the Labour party. If my right hon. and hon. Friends are going to pursue and sustain the policy of very low benefit increases for the next period, it is important that two other conditions are met. The first is that every action should be taken to get inflation down. If inflation suddenly took off, this would become a much tougher and crueller policy than Ministers have in mind. That would be extremely difficult. So it is in everybody’s interest—not just of those in low-paid work and not just those on benefit, but those people in particular—that more is done to sustain and control price rises.

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[Mr Reid]

A lot depends on where we start. If we are talking about rises matching prices or wages, it all depends on the starting point—if we pick a different starting point, we get a different result.

I was talking about the next three years. We know what the rise in average earnings was last year, so obviously we know what the rise in benefits would be in 2013-14. We do not know what it would be in 2014-15 or 2015-16, but setting the increase to the rise in average earnings, rather than a fixed rate of 1%, would mean that as the economy gradually grew, the level of growth in the economy would be paid to those on benefits, as well as those in work. That is a better approach than having a fixed rate of 1% for three years.

No Government have control over world food and energy prices. At Prime Minister’s questions last week I raised this potential problem when I asked the Prime Minister what contingency plans the Government had for benefit increases, should food and energy prices rise by more than expected. He answered by pointing to the good work being done by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change to ensure that energy companies put people on the lowest available tariffs. That will indeed be a big help to people on low incomes, but if energy prices rise by more than expected, the lowest tariff will rise by more than expected too. After I heard the Prime Minister’s answer, I am afraid that I was left to form the conclusion that the Government have no contingency plans for a scenario in which prices rise by more than expected. I hope that when my hon. Friend the Minister replies to this debate, he will be able to reassure me on that point. I hope there is a plan B, in case world prices go up by more than expected.

Setting future increases to the increase in average earnings would address the legitimate argument that out-of-work benefits should not rise faster than earnings and would help to cut the deficit. For example, if the CPI figure were used for 2013-14, benefits would increase by 2.2%. If average earnings were used, they would increase by 1.6%, saving half the amount that a 1% increase would save. It is also important to point out that cutting public spending on its own will not eliminate the deficit. We need to grow the economy as well. All the economic research indicates that money put into the pockets of people on low incomes is far more likely to be spent straight away than it would be by those on higher incomes. Not increasing welfare benefits by the rate of inflation will have an impact on shops and other businesses, as well as the recipients themselves.

To sum up, linking benefit increases to average earnings is much fairer all round and avoids committing ourselves to a fixed figure unnecessarily far in advance. I hope that the Committee will support amendment 10, and I hope that you will allow it to be put to a vote, Mr Amess.

[Mr William Bain]

This evening’s debate on clause 1 and amendment 12, moved by my right hon. Friend the Member for East Ham (Stephen Timms), is important because it speaks to more than the £13 billion increase in the welfare budget caused by this Government’s failure on growth since 2010 or even the chronic lack of jobs, in a still depressed economy, faced by so many hundreds of thousands of people in our country. This debate speaks to the very values of our society.

Are we a country that is content to divide socially instead of coming together—jobless and workers, low-paid and middle earners—to defeat again the social evils of worklessness, low pay, slumping living standards and poverty? Are we a country that is content to see the doubling of food banks under this Government since May 2010, as 1.4 million people in work find themselves needing to resort to credit to help to pay the rent or the mortgage each month? Are we a country that will fall for the cynical “divide and rule” tactics of the Chancellor, which treat people as pawns in a squalid political game, amid a campaign of demonising the poor and turning neighbour against neighbour, when a responsible Government would seek to unite people rather than divide the country? This clause is rotten economics, ruinous for weak economic demand up and down the country and rank politics, from a Government who can relaunch as many times as they like, but who will never rediscover any sense of moral purpose while they engage in this basest of agendas of social division.

[Andrew Bridgen]

The hon. Gentleman mentions unity. Does he agree that if people lead their life on welfare, it is not only bad for our economy and for our society but tremendously bad for those people themselves, hugely reducing their life expectancy and seriously damaging their children’s lives and prospects? It should be discouraged; the best way out of poverty is through work.

[Mr Bain]

On this pleasant occasion, I find that I entirely agree with the hon. Gentleman. Let us hope that that agreement will continue when he contributes to the debate later, and in future debates.

These measures are not pro-growth, as they were included in the analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility in December that further downgraded growth forecasts for this year by 0.8% of gross domestic product. They are not pro-deficit reduction, as unemployment is set to become 340,000 higher than the level predicted by the OBR in 2010, and benefit bills will be £13 billion higher than forecast. They are not pro-equality either, as two thirds of the real-terms cuts introduced by clauses 1 and 2 will hurt women, and three fifths of them will hurt working families.

If the Government believe that they are standing up for fairness in the midst of the longest slump for 140 years, this must be either the most incompetent or the most misguided set of measures since those proposed by the National Government in 1931. On every count, they will increase, not cut, inequality in our country, given that 71% of the households affected are on or below the average income, and that 60% of the total savings from the Bill will come from the poorest third on the income scale. Only 3% will come from the wealthiest third. On no count can these measures be described as fair. How on earth can the Government believe that it is right to introduce a 4% real-terms cut in benefits until 2015 while continuing to pay top-rate pension tax relief to top-rate taxpayers at a rate of 50p in the pound? They are doing that while impoverishing the very poorest people at the same time.

Unemployment in my constituency remains consistently high at more than 4,000, or 12% of the working-age population. Although more than two thirds of jobless people experience only a few months out of work at the most, there are more than 1,300 people there who have been out of work for a year or more. Within that group, some 600 people have been out of work for two years or more. If the Government were serious about welfare reform, they would accept that ending the crushing blow of such long-term joblessness, which saps the human spirit and harms long-term job prospects—as the hon. Member for North West Leicestershire (Andrew Bridgen) pointed out—should be the first duty of a responsible Government. Instead, they have put this ruinous set of measures before us tonight.

[Andrew Bridgen]

Given the sense of unity between us, will the hon. Gentleman endorse the coalition Government’s policies that have helped the economy to create 1.2 million new private sector jobs during this Parliament?

[Mr Bain]

I would not endorse that policy because, as the hon. Gentleman knows, that figure includes the transfer of between 200,000 and 250,000 college staff from the public sector to the private sector. I am not going to endorse that figure; he knows that it is not accurate.

[Sheila Gilmore]

Would my hon. Friend like to refer the hon. Member for North West Leicestershire (Andrew Bridgen) to recent articles—including some in The Guardian, which he would probably discount—that show not only that those jobs were transferred from the public sector to the private sector but that the Government are counting unpaid work in the total of new jobs being created?

[Mr Bain]

Yes indeed, I have seen that report, and it was scandalous. I was somewhat perplexed by the right hon. Member for Wokingham (Mr Redwood) when he said that people who were in part-time work were satisfied with that situation. The truth is that, as the TUC has established, 3.2 million people in this country are stuck in involuntary part-time work because of weak demand, low growth and low investment in the low-productivity economy that is being presided over by this Government.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

The hon. Gentleman is making a thoughtful contribution, as ever. He talks about fairness. Does he think it fair for a Government to spend £25 billion over 10 years only to see the number of those in fuel poverty increase by 2.8 million? Does he think it fair to add 75p to a pensioner’s pension? Does he think it fair to add 10p to fuel duty? And does he think it fair that 1,610 people in his constituency were lifted out of tax last December?

[Mr Bain]

What I would certainly define as unfair is introducing a clause whose impact on the poorest 10% of people on the income scale will be 14 times harder than on the richest 10%. I hope that he has read the impact assessment as closely as I have. If he has, he will know that 1.4 million people in the lowest 10% will be affected by this measure, but only 100,000 in the top 10% will be similarly affected. That cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, be considered fair.

[Christopher Pincher]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Bain]

I hope that the hon. Gentleman will have an opportunity to make his own contribution later, and that he will recognise that I have been generous in giving way to him once already.

Long-term unemployment in Scotland has risen by 385% since 2008. I welcomed the presence of Scottish National party Members in the Division Lobby with Labour Members the other week, voting for our reasoned amendment to the Bill relating to the jobs guarantee, and I hope that it will not be too much longer before the Scottish Government follow Labour’s lead and introduce a jobs guarantee for those most in need of work in Scotland. They could easily do that. I hope that they will look at the example set by Glasgow city council in introducing a successful jobs fund for the young jobless, because such a measure would supersede the measures in clause 1. Countries such as Sweden, which many in the Scottish Government often ask people in Scotland to emulate, have used jobs guarantee policies very successfully indeed for nearly two decades, while reducing their deficit at the same time.

[Dr Eilidh Whiteford (Banff and Buchan) (SNP)]

Does the hon. Gentleman also welcome the Scottish Government’s efforts to ensure that every 16 to 19-year-old in Scotland be guaranteed an educational or training place?

[Mr Bain]

I would welcome any measures from any tier of Government that would increase the level of training and skills provided to my constituents and those in other Scottish constituencies. I have to say to the hon. Lady, however, that I have two major colleges in my constituency—North Glasgow college and John Wheatley college—which have seen staggering levels of cuts introduced by the Scottish Government. That is driving more young people in my constituency into unemployment and creating the very figures that allow those on the Treasury Bench to produce measures such as those in clause 1.

Even in constituencies such as mine, it is still the case that people move in and out of unemployment. The calculated framing of this debate by the Government, based on the fabricated and manufactured premise that there is a monolithic army of the permanently idle, unwilling even to open their curtains, and defrauding the system, wilfully ignores that fact. Fraud in the benefit system is only 0.7%, and many unemployed people, including many of my constituents, are struggling hugely on just £71.40 a week. Unemployment benefit as a proportion of average income has fallen from 22% in 1979 to a mere 15% now, so the argument from those on the Treasury Bench that unemployment benefit is somehow unaffordable and that it cannot continue into the decades to come is simply a false premise to put to the Committee tonight.

[Helen Goodman]

Would my hon. Friend like to point out to Government Members that, in the days when jobseeker’s allowance and its predecessors represented a higher proportion of earnings than now, we also had lower unemployment?

[Mr Bain]

That is absolutely right. We also had lower levels of long-term unemployment than we have now. As I and other Members have pointed out, high levels of long-term unemployment decrease the earnings potential of the people afflicted by that social evil.

Only today, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published a survey of poverty in Scotland which revealed that a baby boy born in the richest 10% of Scottish neighbourhoods has a life expectancy 14 years higher than that of a baby boy born in the poorest 10% of such neighbourhoods. Having a 4% real-terms cut in unemployment and other out-of-work benefits of the sort contained in clause 1 is going to make those figures in Scotland even worse. I urge the Government to think again, to accept amendment 12 and to reduce the terrible social damage that will be caused if this measure becomes law.

I hope that, at this eleventh hour, the Government will decide to make policy on the basis of evidence, rather than reintroduce some Victorian distinction between the deserving and the undeserving poor. I urge them to think again about the impact that clause 1 will have, ensuring that 90% of those in out-of-work benefits will, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, be an average of £215 a year worse off. They should consider the effect that will have not just on high streets in our towns, villages and cities but on the local shop. They should think about the amount of economic demand that will be taken out of local communities, the jobs that will go as a result of the passing of this measure in this form tonight.

The Government ignore the inconvenient truth that out-of-work benefits constitute just 3% of the welfare budget, and that outside of pensions, most welfare spending ensures that work pays for many of our citizens. Nearly three in 10 of my constituents earn less than the living wage of £7.45 an hour. Although introducing a living wage in those parts of the economy where it will work would save money in lower tax credit costs, we, like many other countries, need a strong tax credit system to reduce imbalances within the labour market that would otherwise cause unacceptable levels of inequality. The simple truth is that most poverty in Britain today is among the working poor. It is mainly the working poor who are losing out as a result of these measures. They will be the biggest victims if this iniquitous Bill were to become law, with a real-terms 4% cut in their living standards.

In Scotland, as a result of these measures, some 261,000 working families, nearly one in five, would lose an average of £259 a year by 2015—the antithesis of work paying for those 261,000. About 70% of the tax credit cuts will affect working families in Scotland. The median wage in my constituency is less than £17,600 a year, and many thousands of people will be savagely hurt by clause 1, as Citizens Advice outlined in its submission. A couple on just £13,000 with two children will lose nearly 5% of their income as a result of this Bill, completely overwhelming any benefit from increasing personal tax allowances, which is worth just 13p a week to them.

This debate is not just about the measure before us; it is a debate about the values of this Government and the priorities of our society. This Bill impoverishes the poor, without reducing the deficit; it makes inequality worse, adding 200,000 to the child poverty figures, leaving 1 million more children in poverty by 2020. This clause is a provision that will cause enormous hardship to some of the poorest people in society, and it will devastate economic demand in constituencies such as mine. I urge the Committee to endorse amendment 12 and to vote against clause 1.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I am grateful to be called to contribute to this Committee debate. Many of tonight’s speeches have made me feel that I live in a different world from the one in which my constituents and a large number of people in this country live. I propose to Labour Members that the world in which they live is one far removed from reality.

When this Government came to office in 2010, the coalition confronted the worst peacetime deficit in Britain’s history. That fact cannot be repeated often enough. This is the architecture and the framework through which every single decision has been made since the formation of that Government. It is particularly nauseating to see Labour Members berate the Government for trying to make very tough choices and trying to make savings when they were the architects responsible for the chronic and devastating mismanagement of our public finances; and it is particularly nauseating to see those Members berate and accuse the Government of being purely political in respect of this very difficult measure.

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[Mr Bain]

Would the hon. Gentleman care to comment on the fact that the International Monetary Fund has called for the free and unimpeded operation of the automatic fiscal stabilisers, including unemployment benefits, when people, sadly, lose their jobs? Does he agree with Jonathan Portes, who used to work for the Government and now works for the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and who says that the Bill makes little or no sense macro-economically? Is Jonathan Portes not right?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Jonathan Portes is not right. I do not think that anything he has ever written—I read his blog—makes any sense whatsoever, and I am happy for Hansard to record that. On the point about the automatic stabilisers, I refer the hon. Gentleman to the answer that my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (Mr Redwood) gave him. The automatic stabilisers are working; in cash terms, a lot of our spending in these elements is higher than it was. That is a clear sign that the automatic stabilisers are working.