The Economy

John Bercow Excerpts

Tuesday 6th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Before I call the Chancellor, I remind the House that in view of the high level of interest in the debate I have imposed a six-minute limit on each Back-Bench contribution.

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[Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)]

This debate is not about denying the deficit, and nor is it about never reducing public spending: it is about if and how we reduce the deficit and how we use public investment to grow the economy.

I intervened on the Chancellor earlier in this debate and asked the Chief Secretary to the Treasury a question at Question Time because they ignored an important part of the OBR report, which they have quoted extensively—indeed, the Chief Secretary is still ignoring this point. He argued that we do not have growth because the OBR discovered that the recession was deeper than previously thought. However, the OBR also said that the recovery had been quicker and stronger in 2009 than previously thought and that the decline in growth came in the latter part of 2010.

That is when the famous oil tanker that people have talked about threw out its anchors and started moving backwards. The 2009 recovery did not happen by accident or because the sun was shining; it happened because the previous Government took steps to stimulate the economy. Such steps can be taken. It is not true, as has been argued, that if we simply use Government money, we will never pay off the debt.

The National Housing Federation, which represents housing associations, has made a small but helpful suggestion. It says that if the Government put £1 billion towards shared-ownership housing, the housing association sector could put £8 billion towards it. That would grow 400,000 jobs and build the 66,000 shared-ownership houses that are hugely needed by many low-income families, and at the same time reduce spending on jobseeker’s allowance and housing benefit. Many who would live in shared-ownership houses would previously have lived in high-rent private sector housing, which causes the housing benefit bill, which the Government say they are worried about, to escalate.

That is just one small example. When we create jobs in that way, we create not just that one job. It is not a question of saying, “We spent all that money creating those jobs. Okay, those people will pay more tax and will not be on benefit, but that is not growing the economy.” Those people exist within local communities. If people have jobs and incomes, they will buy goods from other businesses.

It is no accident that many of the businesses in difficulty during the recession and after are related to the housing world. I know of one firm in Edinburgh that not only sold furniture but built it. The furniture-building side of the business has closed because the market has declined. People are not buying houses and they are not moving into new ones or redecorating, and they are not buying furniture.

[Mr Speaker]

Order. It is the height of discourtesy for an hon. Gentleman, who has just made a speech in the debate and who is fortunate to have done so, then to sit there, wittering away at other Members, completely ignoring another hon. Member on her feet. That hon. Gentleman should be thoroughly ashamed of his behaviour.

[Sheila Gilmore]

The ongoing effect of creating construction jobs would ripple far beyond the jobs themselves. That is what we mean by investing to grow the economy. We will not always borrow money for such things, but if we borrow on a short-term basis, we would still be borrowing for a purpose. Borrowing is not always bad. Many Government Members and others bemoan the fact that small businesses cannot borrow to expand. The Government can quite legitimately borrow to grow the economy. That is what we should be doing, but we have not been doing it for the past 18 months.

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[Mr Davey]

Given that that comes from a former Treasury Minister in a Government who often got their figures wrong, I do not think that the OBR needs to listen to that. It is absolutely clear that the Labour party is taking the OBR’s figures seriously. It is significant that we can at last have a debate without the numbers being the issue—without the spin and the game playing that so debased the House’s deliberations in the past. The Labour party’s acceptance—grudging or otherwise—of our or the OBR’s forecasts presents Labour Members with a problem. Why do they not accept the underlying explanation of the OBR’s forecasts?

This House has heard that the OBR’s forecasts changed not because the Government’s policy has gone wrong, but because of three reasons outside this Government’s control: imported inflation, with higher oil and commodity prices; the huge uncertainty caused by problems in the eurozone; and, finally, the boom and bust that Labour once arrogantly told us they had abolished, which was worse under Labour than anyone had previously thought. The Labour party has to face up to this reality, yet the shadow Chancellor did not. This Government have, and have made the difficult choices in doing so.

Our strategy of loose monetary policy and fiscal consolidation, backed with some of the most ambitious supply-side reforms in generations, was not just right when we first announced it after the election; it is right now. Indeed, recent events have given even stronger confirmation that it is right. That is why, despite the changed forecast, our interest rates remain so low while countries all around us have seen their credit rating slashed, downgraded or put on negative watch. The markets have shown their confidence in the UK with the interest on our debt falling to historic lows.

In what was probably the most remarkable part of today’s debate, the shadow Chancellor was astonishingly dismissive of the low interest rates and our achievements. Never mind that Italy and Spain have seen their rates shoot above 6% while ours have fallen towards 2%; never mind the benefit to mortgage holders, businesses and taxpayers of that achievement. The shadow Chancellor seems to believe that the UK is in a liquidity trap—despite the fact that we have a credible central bank, despite the fact that quantitative easing has been judged effective and despite the major credit easing announced in the autumn statement. In the early 1930s, ahead of Keynesian rearmament, a monetary expansion with low rates combined with fiscal consolidation produced a significant recovery. Is that not the lesson from history that the shadow Chancellor simply has not learned?

Of course, we could have opted for another growth policy—some call it plan B—involving unfunded tax cuts, more borrowing and more spending. The details of that are never clear, but the consequences are higher interest rates. [Interruption.] Labour positions itself as the party of high interest rates, although a 1% rise in market interest rates adds £10 billion to mortgage bills—meaning that the average family with a mortgage will pay £1,000 more—and increases business rates by £7 billion and taxpayers’ costs by £21 billion. That would be the price of Labour government. [Interruption.]

I have looked around Europe for Governments or mainstream political parties that have opted for a policy such as plan B, but they are in short supply. Other Governments are now having to address their budget deficits—[Interruption.]

[Mr Speaker]

Order. Far too many private conversations are taking place in the Chamber. Let us hear the Minister.

[Mr Davey]

Other Governments, faced with rising interest rates on their debts, are now having to address their budget deficits. Often they are having to cut deeper than us. It is true that our deficit reduction, at 3.7% of GDP over the next four years, is the third highest in the G7. After all, in 2007 our structural deficit was the highest in the G7. Yet Italy is now making much deeper cuts, and France too is planning deeper cuts. Our deficit reduction is of course significantly less than that of Greece, Ireland, Portugal or Spain, so we will not be opting for plan B as suggested by the Labour party.

We heard many excellent speeches from Members in all parts of the House. I particularly commend those of my hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr Tyrie) and of the hon. the Members for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith) and for Newton Abbot (Anne Marie Morris), all of whom referred to the importance of the supply-side reforms. The hon. Member for Skipton and Ripon mentioned the important employment law reforms which, I believe, will make a big difference to our efforts to return people to work, and the hon. Member for Newton Abbot spoke of the importance of ensuring that regulation was cut for micro-businesses. I can tell the hon. Lady that we are achieving that now, even at European level.

We also heard good speeches on the importance of infrastructure investment from the hon. Members for Folkestone and Hythe (Damian Collins), for Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks) and for Scunthorpe (Nic Dakin), and from the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling). The significance of the infrastructure plans that we announced in the autumn statement is that they are well advanced, and some are even shovel-ready, so the problems that the shadow Chancellor worried about do not pertain.

This was an important debate. For once, it was not about the figures in the economic forecasts and the Budget questions. Thanks to the innovation of the Office for Budget Responsibility, it focused largely on analysis—although at times the analysis presented by the shadow Chancellor was more theoretical than academic—and it sharpened the differences between the coalition and the Opposition. While the Government are focused on keeping interest rates low, Labour’s priority is to spend and borrow more. While this Government—

[Mr Alan Campbell (Tynemouth) (Lab)]

claimed to move the Closure (Standing Order No. 36).

[Mr Speaker]

The Question is, That the Question be now put. [Interruption.] I think the Ayes have it. [Interruption.] Order. Hon. Members must calm themselves; it will be injurious to their health otherwise. The Question is, That the Question be now put. [Interruption.] It is simply a case of putting the Question. I will try once more. The Question is, That the Question be now put. I think the Ayes have it.

Question accordingly put, That this House has considered the matter of the economy.

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[Mr Speaker]

That, I think, was a case of either a point of frustration or, as the right hon. Gentleman has a smiling countenance, him getting his point on the record.

[Ed Balls (Morley and Outwood) (Lab/Co-op)]

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. Given that the motion before the House today was on whether there has been a sufficient debate on the economy, given the failure of plan A, given the £158 billion of extra borrowing, given rising unemployment, and given the view of the House that more time is needed for this debate, could you advise on whether the will of the House could be expressed and there could be more time to debate the very important issues facing this House and the country?

[Mr Speaker]

I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman. The allocation of time for parliamentary debates is not a matter for the Chair, but the right hon. Gentleman has recorded his view, as has the Deputy Chief Whip.

[Dr Thérèse Coffey (Suffolk Coastal) (Con)]

Further to that point of order, Mr Speaker. I seek your advice. Is it fair to say that anyone who has spoken in the debate and then voted against the motion is actually misleading the House by saying that it has not considered the motion?

[Mr Speaker]

The very simple answer to the hon. Lady is that the House has not been misled in any way. Nothing disorderly—[Interruption.] Order. I have just made the point, which brooks no contradiction, that the House has not been misled in any way. Nothing disorderly has taken place. The vote is what the vote is; it is not for me to interpret. Other hon. and right hon. Members and people outside the House are free to do so as they wish.

[Andrew Miller (Ellesmere Port and Neston) (Lab)]

On a point of order, Mr Speaker.

[Mr Speaker]

I hope it is a different and unrelated point of order.

[Andrew Miller]

Mr Speaker, by a majority of 134, the House has determined that this House has not considered the matter of the economy. Have you heard from the Government Front Bench whether the Government intend to allocate more time to ensure that the House does consider the economy properly?

[Mr Speaker]

No.