The Economy

Richard Graham Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Wright]

My hon. Friend represents a seat in the north-east, as I do, and he knows full well that our region has borne the brunt of this recession, like we bore the brunt of the 1980s recession. It does not have to be like this. We have got enormous economic potential in our region that can really contribute to wealth creation in our country, but that is simply not happening.

[Richard Graham (Gloucester) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Wright]

No, I am not going to give way, because I do not have long left.

There is an acute need for a more balanced economic policy, focusing not merely on deficit reduction, but on incorporating job and wealth creation measures, on weeding out inefficiencies—that is true—on raising our productivity, on improving our infrastructure and on rewarding enterprise and ambition. In fact, a more balanced view would help to reduce the deficit faster. An emphasis on growth and jobs would increase output, raise tax receipts and reduce benefit bills, thereby helping to cut the debt. Given the lack of growth in the economy and persistent uncertainties about inflation, economic activity and net exports, for the good of our country and economy, will the Chancellor concede that he might—just might—be wrong?

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[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

This is a timely economic debate, and I am pleased that the Opposition have tabled this motion for a whole-day debate at this crucial time. We are one year in, and we can now begin to form a view of whether the Government’s policies are working. It is always difficult for the Opposition, particularly on issues such as employment and the impact of economic policies on the well-being of our country and our constituents, when they have to come out and be negative about what is being achieved. Inevitably, and much to the resentment of Opposition Members, that leads to a chorus of unjustified remarks from across the Chamber that we want to talk the economy down or that we do not want good news. In the name of our constituents, we are desperate for good news. We want good news on employment, for example.

[Richard Graham]

The hon. Gentleman said that his constituents were desperate for good news. May I refer him to the very useful economic indicators update provided by the Library? It shows that consumer confidence rose by 10% in May, that manufacturers’ output expectations have risen by 13%, and that the EU economic sentiment indicators for Britain are up by 2.6 points. Does he not agree that those are all positive indicators? I would welcome him sharing them with his constituents and all his colleagues on the Opposition Benches.

[Mr Robinson]

All we know at the moment is what has happened and many forward-looking forecasts are no better than those of the OBR, which was set up by the Government to provide a so-called independent forecast. Let us be clear that we welcomed and accepted that. All we can look at is what has been achieved; we will come on to the forecasts in a few moments. If we show a moment’s hesitation or doubt about them, I hope that Government Members will understand why. I followed the first 10 years of the Labour Government very closely, and I do not think that we ever had to revise any forecast three times in a matter of six months. If we do not listen to the forecasts and do not treat them as if they had already been achieved, I hope that the hon. Gentleman will understand why.

There are some things we can welcome. We can welcome the good effort in job creation in the private sector. According to the Chancellor this afternoon, that means 520,000 jobs, so let us welcome that. The trouble is, however, that the OBR says—this is the bible we have to go by—that before the end of this Parliament, 200,000 more people are going to be unemployed than it originally thought. We have 520,000 on the one hand and 200,000 more on the other. There is always a negative balancing out the positive in all these areas. If we take inflation, for example, it has gone through the roof at 4.5%. Manufacturing output has been a good effort up until the last quarter, but it is now down again. It is not surprising that an intake of jobs in the private manufacturing sector has supported that output, built on the back of the previous Government’s policies. [Interruption.] No, they do not like to hear it, but it is a fact. Why did more than two thirds of the private sector increase in employment take place before the spending round announcement? It happened on the back of the reflationary policies of the previous Labour Government.

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[Richard Graham (Gloucester) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Toby Perkins). He, I and all of us in the House agree that the goal now is to increase growth in the country. The challenges are, first, the revisionist history we have heard today, and secondly the road through which we achieve that growth.

Today’s debate started with the shadow Chancellor talking about the lessons of history and highlighting the need for an economic plan that works. Let me begin with a quick analysis of recent history, because we know that those who do not learn from their errors and from history are destined only to repeat them. The shadow Chancellor was the man who, with his then boss, the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown), had the clear economic goal of abolishing boom and bust. Thirteen years later and after the worst bust of all time, the right hon. Member for South Shields (David Miliband), as the Chancellor mentioned today, rightly came to the conclusion that it was wrong ever to pretend in a capitalist country that anyone could abolish the economic cycle.

It was a pity that the right hon. Gentleman did not arrive at that conclusion many years earlier, but he has learned an important lesson from recent history. Have the shadow Chancellor and other Labour Members done the same? Have they accepted that the heart of the shadow Chancellor’s last great plan was rotten to the core, was mission impossible, and so ended inevitably in tears? I do not think that Labour Members understand that they and their economic spokesmen will simply not be credible until they accept that key fact.

[Alison McGovern]

If the hon. Gentleman thinks that the previous Government’s economic policy over a decade lacked credibility, why have the current Government accepted, though amended, the golden rule on investment over the economic cycle?

[Richard Graham]

First, the hon. Lady is inaccurate, and secondly no Government Member believes that we can abolish boom and bust.

The details of the shadow Chancellor’s plan were no more successful than his goal. The golden rule on Government spending to which the hon. Lady referred was continually fudged under the previous Government, most spectacularly through the £300 billion of off-balance sheet financing—private finance initiatives—which was almost as bad as anything done by the investment banks. Does the shadow Chancellor accept the accusation by the right hon. Member for South Shields that this was a fundamentally dishonest way of measuring the golden rule? Even the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath has recognised that the tripartite system of regulating finance did not work. Does the shadow Chancellor accept that too?

These dry details, on things such as PFI and the tripartite system of regulation, do not resonate with our constituents, but their consequences will—the hospitals that have to cut services to patients because of the interest being paid on their PFI financing, and banks not lending enough to individuals and businesses in our constituencies because of bad decision making by themselves, inept regulation and inadequate Government oversight. The consequences of living beyond our means are the essential link between the shadow Chancellor’s policies, and our inheritance and this Government’s efforts to forge a better economic future.

We come to the crucial part of today’s motion: how are we doing, one year on? Opposition Members have piled in like a choir singing the hymn “Abide With Me”—“Gloom and despair in all around I see”. They all seem to have enormous confidence that the economy is failing, that the coalition will not plan, and that the coalition plan would not and could not work anyway, leaving them to talk down our country and their own constituencies. I wonder whether any of them are doing anything to help. Where were they, for example, when I led a debate on apprenticeships and small businesses two weeks ago? Not a single Opposition Member was there. We all need to do our bit to support business growth in our constituencies. We know today that not everything is perfect, but the evidence suggests the following facts. Unemployment is down slightly on a year ago. The savings ratio has improved and business growth—

[Thomas Docherty]

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Could you clarify whether I could find out from Hansard whether a Member had actually turned up for their own debate?

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)]

That is certainly something that you could find out from Hansard, but it is not something that you can find out from me.

[Richard Graham]

I am glad to see that Opposition Members are focused on the topic of today’s debate.

As I was saying, the manufacturing recovery has softened slightly over the last month or two, but it is still strongly up on where it was a year ago. There is a lot to be done, but I would like now to highlight a few things that this Government have done in my constituency, and on which I am working with my constituents.

[Lilian Greenwood]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Richard Graham]

No, we have had enough of the hon. Lady’s discussion of the past.

I welcome this Government’s commitment to redouble the Swindon-to-Kemble line, which will be an important infrastructure improvement for our railways. I welcome the transfer of assets from the former regional development agency to our city, which will make a difference to our regeneration. I also welcome the funding that the Secretary of State for Education has given for a new-build Gloucester academy, which will help some of our young in their education. I am proud to have worked with my constituents to organise the Gloucestershire apprenticeship fair, the women for engineering seminar and, last week, the Barton jobs fair, alongside Linking Communities and Black South West Network, from which some of our young unemployed black and minority ethnic constituents have found new jobs. There are jobs available if only we can help our constituents to find them. All of us in this fragile situation have options.

[Mrs Jenny Chapman (Darlington) (Lab)]

rose—

[Richard Graham]

All of us including the hon. Lady. We can do nothing, we can say, “It won’t work,” and we can let our constituents down; or, we can get stuck in and work with our businesses to help our constituents back into work. These things have other fruits as well, such as the prizes that I gave at the Gloucestershire Wildlife Trust half an hour ago to those companies that are supporting environmental good causes.

I agree that we need to do more to boost growth. I have been asking the Government to do more to help small businesses take up apprenticeships. I believe that the return of business rates to councils will incentivise them to drive up support for our businesses. I believe strongly in enterprise zones, and I hope that the Government will look carefully at the enterprise zone for my constituency.

I also believe that the Treasury is correct to sort out the banks and manage the risks to the taxpayer. However, today’s Opposition plan is not a plan at all; it is simply an unfunded, undiscussed and unsupported VAT cut. It would simply increase spending, push up debt and lead to higher interest rates, with more to be paid every month on mortgages by our constituents. It is not so much jam tomorrow as enormous pain tomorrow and for many years, which is why I will have no hesitation in rejecting the motion.