Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Nigel Evans Excerpts

Friday 22nd March 2013 Commons Chamber

[Several hon. Members]

rose—

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)]

Order. There is a seven-minute limit.

--- Later in debate ---

[Graham Jones (Hyndburn) (Lab)]

I want to concentrate my comments on local government and, in particular, housing, although I appreciate that Monday is the allocated day for that.

This Government’s housing stimulus fails to recognise that the economy in the regions is not just stalling but in recession, and that rebalancing the economy is about boosting the construction industry in places like east Lancashire. This Budget fails to achieve that. It does nothing to tackle the shocking state of much of the housing stock in constituencies such as mine. It is worth putting it on the record again that there are wards in my constituency with over 70% non-decent homes in the private sector. Cutting VAT on property refurbishments would have been a much better move in these areas, because it would have boosted the construction industry where there is already an over-supply of housing.

The Government’s record on housing so far is a confetti of failed announcements. I think it was said of the previous Housing Minister that if a house had been built for every announcement he made or press statement he released, we would not have a housing crisis. As a result of all these Government announcements, house building has fallen, rents are rising, home ownership is becoming a harder, not an easier, goal for young families to achieve, and homelessness has risen. The new homes bonus announced by the Government in 2010 was supposed to unleash growth and build at least 400,000 additional homes, but it has failed to deliver. Housing starts fell by 11% last year to below 100,000—less than half the number required to meet housing need, which stands at about 230,000.

Next up was the Prime Minister, who claimed that the latest scheme, NewBuy, would assist 100,000 people to buy their own home. To date, however, this Government scheme has helped just 1,500 people to realise their dreams—1.5% of the target. Then we had the Government’s £10 billion guarantee scheme, which has yet to deliver a single penny of support for house building. The Government’s record on house building so far is abysmal.

On Wednesday, we got the latest wheeze—the announcement of the Help to Buy scheme, which is in fact the NewBuy scheme dressed up because that has not been particularly successful. The new scheme has already been met with caution. The Chartered Institute of Housing is concerned about any success simply fuelling another housing bubble: a supply side failure and an over-leveraged mortgage market. The Financial Times described the rebranded scheme, Help to Buy, as the right to default under a headline “Housing plan parallels US home loans system”, and commented that the Chancellor

“has not learnt the lessons of the credit crunch”.

This scheme will encourage people to overstretch their finances and max out their mortgages to take advantage of the offer. In short, read Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, whose lending precipitated the 2007 financial crash. We have the irony of a Government who have forced banks to tighten their lending criteria now enabling a relaxation of mortgage lending terms, with taxpayers on the hook.

The criticisms come not only from Labour Members and from the industry: I note that in this morning’s press it has come from the Chancellor’s own Benches, with the hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) stating:

“Having a system where you are giving mortgages without increasing supply will lead to price inflation. We”—

the Government—

“could have announced something bolder that increased supply”.

Alas, that is not the case. Worse, in the equity loan element of the scheme, the Government have only a second charge against the property. I am deeply concerned about that, because it will leave the taxpayer with all the risk and the mortgage lenders with all the profits. Fathom Consulting says that the plans amount to “sub-prime lending” and:

“Suffice to say that had we been asked to design a policy that would guarantee maximum damage to the UK’s long-term growth prospects and its fragile credit rating, this would be it.”

The overwhelming barrier to the housing market is the spending review’s 60% cut to the budget for affordable housing, which is affecting the state of the economy. The Chancellor has failed to deliver a real plan for growth; all he can offer is more of the same.

Criticism of the Help to Buy scheme has continued in this morning’s press. Nick Pearce of the Institute for Public Policy Research has said that the Government

“continues a strategy based on propping up—indeed inflating—prices rather than getting additional homes built. This suggests that the lessons from the housing bubble that contributed to the financial crisis have not been learnt and that orthodox thinking on housing policy remains entrenched in Whitehall.”

David Orr of the National Housing Federation added:

“the danger is that if we don’t tackle the fact we’re still not building enough homes, we’ll just create another housing bubble that will continue to push house prices up and out of reach of the majority.

Our housing market has long been weakened by the lack of new houses being built, which are forcing up rental and house prices—leaving millions of people struggling to get on the property ladder or pay their rent.”

Duncan Stott of Priced Out said:

“The only thing that will genuinely help first-time buyers is for house prices to fall back to an affordable level. Pumping government debt into the housing market will just push house prices further out of reach.”

He also said:

“Help to Buy is bad enough on its own, but to also open it up to second homebuyers would really rub salt in the wounds of Generation Rent.”

The criticism does not end there. CentreForum says that

“it is difficult to see how today’s demand side measures under the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme will help. These measures could actually increase the cost of housing and may also mean that any significant fall in house prices results in big losses for the taxpayer.”

It has called for more supply-side answers, but the Chancellor’s Budget has failed to come up with any such solutions. CentreForum also states:

“Far better would have been a rejuvenated effort to introduce community land auctions…or a scheme to give housing associations the ability to issue government backed bonds for the construction of new homes”.

Shelter has also called for limits on council borrowing to be lifted in order for more social and council housing to be built.

In a constituency where house building is flat for many reasons—

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)]

Order.

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[Ms Karen Buck (Westminster North) (Lab)]

We have heard a great deal in the Budget debate—not unreasonably—about public debt, but less about the private sector crisis that generated the public sector debt crisis. We have also heard about the impact of private debt and deleveraging, including from the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg). In that context, it might be worth mentioning that private debt and deleveraging are connected with the substantial decline in the number of people who can afford their own homes because of house price inflation in the past decade. That feeds into the core of my argument on the extent to which housing and housing costs have led us to a crisis in the welfare state.

We have heard less in the debate about flatling growth, the crisis in unemployment and under-employment, and the crisis in real wages and living standards. It is worth noting that real wages fell by 0.7% last year, and that average earnings will have fallen by 2.4% over the course of this Parliament. That fall in purchasing power is contributing to the continued stalling of growth.

Unfortunately, housing costs are at the heart of the living standards crisis, particularly in respect of first-time buyers, younger people, and those in what we call generation rent. Home owners have benefited for a decade or so from low interest rates. The tragedy is that many people are not aware of the fact that low interest rates are sustaining lower mortgages. A third of home owners have interest-only mortgages, and are extremely vulnerable to a future rise in interest rates.

Shelter has demonstrated consistently the crisis in home affordability. Some 7.8 million people struggle to pay their rents and mortgages, and 2.8 million people rely on unauthorised overdrafts and payday loans on a regular basis to cover the cost of their mortgage or rent. With underemployment and the continuing flatlining of real wages, that situation will only get worse.

In turn, that has contributed to a dramatic rise in the number of people who are caught in generation rent—they cannot save for a deposit and cannot get a mortgage because of the high house prices we have seen for generations. Two million more people now rent in the private sector than 10 years ago—26% of all Londoners now rent privately. That driver into the private rented sector has led to an escalation in rents, particularly in London. London rents now average £2,200 a month. Naturally enough, people are unable to afford such bills. That explains why the housing benefit bill has risen. It is due not to Government policy, but to the increased case load in the private rented sector, together with unemployment and flatlining wages. The Government, despite their rhetoric, will spend £12 billion more in real terms on housing benefit in this comprehensive spending review period than the last Government spent under the previous comprehensive spending review. That was the figure before the Office for Budget Responsibility upgraded that expenditure this week.

If I were the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, I would be furious that the Department for Communities and Local Government had driven up the bills of my Department through its housing policy, with the failure to build and the halving of the affordable housing investment programme, and its rents policy. However, if I were the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, I would be equally furious at the extent to which the Department for Work and Pensions policy of capping housing benefit had increased the pressure on my budget, particularly through homelessness. Today, we have heard about a further rise of 10% in homelessness, with an increase of 22% in London. That is not only a human tragedy; it costs money.

Will the Budget proposals address the crisis in housing and housing affordability? No, they will not. David Orr, the chief executive of the National Housing Federation, has said that if the investment had gone into affordable housing supply instead of the mortgage guarantee schemes, it would have delivered 175,000 new homes and a £30 billion boost to the economy. We know that the money is available because the Chancellor has secured £13 billion to underpin the mortgage schemes. Those schemes are effectively the rebranding of existing schemes that have not worked over the last two or three years. As other Members have said, the schemes risk inflating a housing bubble.

A consistent theme is emerging not only from the Opposition but from commentators on the right. Even the Daily Mail has said today, “Could the great state mortgage scheme be hijacked by the rich?” The answer is probably yes. It will be a boost to older buyers and second home owners, rather than the young. Mervyn King, of the Bank of England, has warned that the mortgage guarantee is not the answer to the housing crisis. It will stoke up house prices and continue to freeze younger homebuyers out of the housing market, which will keep them locked in generation rent. That will in turn lead to an increased housing benefit bill, which Ministers will scurry to try to cap.

The housing crisis is being exacerbated, not relieved, by Government measures. That has a fundamental impact on private debt, the banking crisis, in-work and out-of-work poverty, work incentives and welfare. The Government inherited an imperfect position on housing supply, but they are making it considerably worse. Beveridge and Keynes, those giants of post-war economics, knew that affordable housing was the key to—

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)]

Order. I call Stella Creasy.