The Economy

Nick de Bois Excerpts

Wednesday 26th November 2014 Commons Chamber

[Chris Leslie]

We had a global banking crisis, but, as I recall, growth was 1% in the first quarter of 2010. We had a strong level of growth as we came out of that crisis, because we took up the challenge to stimulate the economy and get it moving again. There was a VAT reduction at that time, and then what happened? What did the Chancellor of the Exchequer do? What did he do, with the help of the hon. Gentleman’s votes? He whacked up VAT to 20%, although the hon. Gentleman had not mentioned that in his election manifesto. He, too, will have to face his electorate and account for the decisions that he has made.

I do not want to take up too much time, because I know that many other Members wish to speak, but it is important for me to say something about the fiscal challenge. There will have to be other difficult decisions, which is why Labour is looking at every single Department and every item of expenditure, line by line, in our zero-based review, and identifying the different choices that can be made to enable us to live within our means. We have already proposed scrapping winter fuel payments for the richest 5% of pensioners, cutting Ministers’ pay by 5%, capping child benefit rises at 1% for two years, reviewing the value for money of assets and non-essential buildings owned by the Government, and making savings of £250 million in the Home Office budget—by, for example, scrapping police and crime commissioners—in order to better protect front-line policing. Over the weeks ahead, we will set out more of our early findings from other Departments.

Our plan is to balance the books and get the national debt falling as soon as possible in the next Parliament. While the Prime Minister and Chancellor think it is okay to make £7 billion of unfunded pledges—the Prime Minister said that again today at Question Time—although even the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills has described that as a “total fantasy”, our manifesto will not make commitments that would be paid for by additional borrowing. When we make promises, we will say where the money will come from. We would willingly put all our costings before the OBR so that it could check and validate them—but, of course, that would upset the Chancellor’s plan to smear our proposals and run a dirty election campaign based on fear rather than fact. If the Chancellor only had the guts to put his plans, and all our plans, in front of the OBR, perhaps we could let the public form a judgment based on the values and merits of the manifestos and their policy proposals.

[Nick de Bois (Enfield North) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Chris Leslie]

I will give way one last time.

[Nick de Bois]

How can the hon. Gentleman credibly expect the public to buy into Labour’s ability to balance the books? Every year, from 2001 onwards, the Labour Government spent far more than they took in, which is why they were left with one of the biggest deficits in the G7. You cannot spend more than you take in: that is the root cause of the problem, but Labour Members do not get it.

[Chris Leslie]

The hon. Gentleman and the Chancellor of the Exchequer were backing all the spending plans during those years. Moreover, the hon. Gentleman did not even mention the banking crisis. Where was he during that period? Does he really think that his constituents will be tricked by his airbrushing of the situation? The hon. Gentleman’s party has been in office for five years, but the Conservatives have failed on the promises they made to tackle the Budget deficit and get borrowing down. They promised that we would not have a Budget deficit, and they failed and it will be up to the next Government to finish the job.

Whoever wins the next election will have to pick up the pieces of this current mess. We will make sure that resources are channelled towards the issues that matter most to the public, but we should not have to wait until next May: the Chancellor has the opportunity to act now. That is why the third task for this autumn statement is to deliver a costed and funded plan to save and transform our national health service. In my constituency in Nottingham it is getting harder to see a GP; on cancer waiting times we still have a system struggling to meet the two-week target from GP referral to first outpatient appointment; and at the beginning of the month in Nottingham almost one in five patients had to wait more than four hours at our local emergency department. We have excellent staff and diligent management at our local hospital, but the pressures on their shoulders have been getting worse and worse, and Ministers have left the NHS to cope on its own, without finding the new sources of funding to put this situation right.

I therefore put this challenge to the Minister today: when she gets to her feet to respond to this debate, will she accept our suggestion to use £1 billion of banking fines from the recent foreign exchange rigging scandal and earmark this windfall for the NHS? More than that, will the Minister do what is required to tackle tax avoidance, and introduce a levy on tobacco firms and a tax on properties worth over £2 million to raise £2.5 billion a year—on top of the Government’s spending plans—for an extra 20,000 nurses and 8,000 doctors? These are necessary—and some of them are difficult—decisions, which focus relentlessly on supporting the NHS at this time of need.

These are the tests for next week’s autumn statement: a recovery for the many; a fairer approach to balancing the books; and a plan to save our NHS. Britain cannot afford another autumn statement of inactivity, neglect and the same old trickle-down economics. We need a Government who step up and take action to deliver a recovery shared by all. I commend the motion to the House.

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[Priti Patel]

My hon. Friend’s point tells us everything we need to know about the economics of the Labour party.

We believe in a recovery that works for the many, and there are three ways of putting that recovery in place. First, we create the right macro-economic conditions. Cutting the deficit, restoring public spending to sustainable levels, ending the culture of Government excess—which the Labour party knows quite a bit about—securing inward investment, building, manufacturing, exporting and securing our place in the world are all key, and we are doing those things.

[Nick de Bois]

The Minister has touched on a crucial point. When this Government came to power, exports to the EU far outweighed those to the rest of the world. Our investment in UK Trade & Investment and the confidence of British investors in the macro-economic conditions that we have created have now turned that situation round. We are no longer as dependent on the struggling EU economy, following a 10% increase in growth outside the EU.

[Priti Patel]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. This Government made the right decisions. For a start, we do not vilify businesses; we work with them to help them grow, export, and expand overseas. We have also invested heavily in UKTI, which is working in partnership with businesses up and down the country.

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[Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)]

I rather suspect that the few people who may be listening to this debate will feel that it is running a similar course to previous debates. Sometimes it feels as if we are talking about different countries and different experiences, but I genuinely think that we all want and support many of the same things. I take exception to some of the portrayals of Labour party policy and politicians as not wanting to see people in work or not supporting people in employment. That is simply not the case and never has been.

Some 350,000 single parents alone were enabled to work as a result of the introduction of tax credits in the early part of this century. All were grateful to a Government who enabled them to take jobs that they had previously been unable to do.

[Nick de Bois]

Notwithstanding the good intentions behind tax credits, is not the reality that that Labour party policy is encouraging and funding corporations to pay less in the full knowledge that the state will pick up their employment bill?

[Sheila Gilmore]

If I have time I will come back to some of those important issues.

The point I was making was that the policy of the last Labour Government focused on getting people into employment and making work pay, not on encouraging people not to work as is so often alleged. We do not get the chance to challenge some of the statements and generalisations that have been made as much as we want. Earlier in this debate, the hon. Member for Ipswich (Ben Gummer) said—and perhaps he misspoke—that unemployment is now the lowest in our history. That is slightly astonishing, given that unemployment was lower than it is now, by some considerable margin, in all years between 1998 and 2008, when the recession struck, and of course the 1950s and 1960s saw considerably lower unemployment rates. There is no need to exaggerate the position.

Nor is it true that long-term unemployment was much worse during the years of the Labour Government. I am glad to hear that in 2013-14, the last financial year, long-term unemployment—people unemployed for more than two years—fell for the first time since 2003. But in 2008, as the recession was striking, that level of long-term unemployment was 200,000. It peaked at 460,000 in 2013, and this is the first fall since then. That is a considerable increase in the number of people unemployed long-term for many years during the period of this Government.

We hear a lot about the fall in jobseeker’s allowance payments in various constituencies, and coalition Members are happy to throw those figures back at every Opposition Member who speaks. But not every reduction in jobseeker’s allowance translates into someone being back in employment—and certainly not back in full-time employment. Many people cease to be entitled to jobseeker’s allowance because they come to the end of their entitlement, not necessarily because they are in a job or eligible for any other benefit.

The Minister suggested that the last Government did not do much for older people, but pensioner poverty was slashed during that time. During this welcome—although slow—recovery, we are seeing some alarming issues for people attempting to work. The number of people who are self-employed is much higher than it has ever been—it was 15% in 2014—and indeed two thirds of the increase in the total number of workers between 2008 and 2014 has been among the self-employed. The problem is that a lot of that self-employment is not generating a high level of income. We have to ask what is happening. When those figures for the high level of self-employment are given, the assumption is that we are talking about thrusting entrepreneurs who are doing very well, but the average earnings of the self-employed have fallen. They are now getting £200 and some a week, which is less than half that of employees.

A lot of self-employed people are struggling, either because their businesses are very new or, possibly, because they have been encouraged to become self-employed as an alternative to unemployment, but find that their earnings and family income are very low. That is an important point to consider, as is much other low-paid employment, when we look at the tax take. The deficit will rise this year—having come down by one third, which was not the total reduction we were promised—and that has a lot to do with reduced tax take. We argue that that has a lot to do with the underemployment that people are suffering and self-employment on very low earnings.

People are in self-employment of a very dubious kind. I met a constituent last Friday. He is in his 50s and he has always been a construction worker. He cannot get permanent employment in that area, even in a city such as Edinburgh where unemployment is relatively low. He has signed up with an agency. Periodically, it phones up to offer him work—four days here or five days there, with gaps in between. Recently, he was phoned up at about lunchtime and asked if he could get down to a building site that afternoon. “How long will the job be?” he asked. “Oh, just today and tomorrow.” So that was one afternoon and one day’s work for someone who is a skilled tradesman and has worked all his life. That is having a devastating effect on his ability to pay his rent, remain in his home and hold his head up as a valued worker. If that is the kind of employment we are encouraging, we must do something about it.

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[Nick de Bois (Enfield North) (Con)]

I listened with interest to the opening speech by the hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie), who relied a good deal on the forecasts made by the Chancellor in 2010. I shall not dwell on them, but the response to that autumn statement was made by the right hon. Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (Alan Johnson), whose own forecast then was that this would be a jobless recovery. When it comes to examining forecasts, we should perhaps recognise that as well.

I share something else in common with the right hon. Gentleman, who by his own admission is not an economist: I am not one either. Looking broadly at the key issues, it strikes me that we have a little bit of “Dad’s Army” from the Opposition Front-Bench team, in that they are trying to create a panic and harm confidence. I would take the advice of Corporal Jones: “Don’t panic, Member for Nottingham East!” Public sector net borrowing fell by £200 million to £7.7 billion compared with the previous year. Although there has been a slight increase in the current budget deficit in the year to date, let us be clear that this coincided with a £3.2 billion increase in net public investment. Income tax revenues on the margins may be 0.4%, but, on the question of being confident about collecting revenue, Labour Members have talked at length about the increase in the self-employed and made some disparaging remarks, the idea being that self-employment is a last resort. It is not. There will probably be a boost in tax revenues as the taxes of the self-employed are collected in January. I would proceed with caution before reading too much significance into a statistically not too significant adjustment in the figures. Forecasts will be important. Even if the tax estimates were slightly down on the revenues, that would be a sign that a growing number of young people are going into jobs at lower salaries, which bodes well for the future—and we are here for the long-term, not for the short-term, recovery. That is important.

What most troubles me about this debate and the Captain Mainwaring approach to economics is simply this: we have set about focusing not just on the pure statistics of economic recovery because we believe it is crucial to create the environment for the entrepreneur to thrive and succeed, and for people to go back to work. That is what will drive the economy, given that more than 95% of our businesses are in the small to medium-sized sector.

Government intervention has driven change on the ground. In my constituency, for example, the employment allowance has reached 930 employers, the enterprise allowance has reached 200 people and, above all, since their inception, start-up loans of £500,000 have helped 100 new businesses. That is a return to the economics of the entrepreneur, making this a country to do business in. It is the growth of the SMEs on which we are focusing our policies that will drive the recovery, reduce unemployment and create employment opportunities. That is the key fact. We have more people in work than ever before. The situation in my constituency matches that across the country: youth unemployment is down 40%, and 38% down on the 2010 statistics. That is what counts for most people: delivering a regular pay packet and the security that comes with it.