Charter for Budget Responsibility

Michael Fabricant Excerpts

Tuesday 24th January 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hammond]

As I shall explain in a moment, one purpose of the charter and the new fiscal rules is to allow sufficient flexibility to deal with any unexpected, unforecast shocks during a period of more-than-usual uncertainty in the economy.

The OBR’s judgment at autumn statement implied £84 billion of additional borrowing over the forecast horizon, although I should say that the OBR acknowledges a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty in that forecast. So, at autumn statement, I had to make a judgment: I could have looked for further savings to maintain the trajectory of consolidation my predecessor set out, but I judged that that would not have been the responsible way to support the economy in present circumstances. So, at the autumn statement, I set out our new plan, which offered fiscal headroom, if needed, to deal with unforeseen, unforecast economic shocks, and scope to invest to raise productivity and so to lift real wages and living standards.

Let me set out the principles that inform the fiscal rules I have placed before the House today. First, the public finances should be returned to balance at the earliest date that is compatible with the prudent management of the economy. I judge, in current circumstances, that that will be in the next Parliament, after our EU exit is complete. In the interim, I have committed to reducing the structural deficit to below 2% of GDP by the end of this Parliament. Targeting a structural deficit means that I can let the public finances respond to any unforeseen short-term fluctuations in the economy through the operation of the so-called automatic stabilisers. The OBR forecast at autumn statement 2016 that I will meet this rule two years early. This leaves some headroom—about £27 billion—for a discretionary response to any further shocks, should such a response be necessary.

Secondly, I have committed to getting debt falling by the end of this Parliament. This will be the first time since the start of the century that debt has fallen. Again, the OBR forecasts that debt will begin falling two years before our rule requires.

Delaying the return to balance until the next Parliament not only ensures that we have fiscal headroom to respond to shocks, but means that the Government have scope to invest to improve the UK’s productivity. The productivity gap is the biggest challenge facing the UK economy. It has been said many times before, but I am going to say it again: it takes workers in Germany less than four days to produce what we produce in five days. That means that many British workers work harder—longer hours—for lower pay than their counterparts. This has to change if we are to build an economy that works for everyone.

[Michael Fabricant (Lichfield) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right to point to the productivity gap, but may I gently chide him by letting him know that in this respect the Nissan plant in Sunderland is second only to the plant in Yokohama in Japan—its headquarters? It is, outside Japan, the most profitable and productive engineering plant in the Nissan group.

[Mr Hammond]

It is always a pleasure to be gently chided by my hon. Friend, who is of course absolutely right. That is the conundrum about Britain’s productivity. We have some of the most fantastically productive companies and businesses—indeed, some of the most productive cities—in the world, but we also have some of the poorest examples of productivity performance. The challenge before us is to work out how to spread across the economy the best practice in productivity that we see in our economy so that all regions, and all corners and sectors of our economy, can share in this productivity performance and thus deliver the higher real wages and living standards that that implies. This is the biggest challenge facing the UK economy, but one that successive Governments have failed to do anything effective about.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Hammond]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Public investment in infrastructure is part of the story, as is public and private investment in skills. Increasing the stock of capital available for each worker to use is also part of improving labour productivity.

We know that business hates uncertainty, and the uncertainty that has been created by the Brexit vote has undoubtedly slowed down business investment decisions. However, the problem of productivity that we are looking at is not a short-term problem in response to the Brexit vote; it is a much longer-term challenge in the UK economy. Large companies in the UK are well capitalised, and their levels of capitalisation are similar to those of comparable businesses elsewhere. I suggest that there is a challenge over the capitalisation of smaller businesses in the UK, and that access to long-term capital in the UK is one of the challenges that we need to address. The Government undertook at autumn statement to conduct a review of the availability of patient, long-term capital for smaller businesses in the UK.

The money that I have just spoken about for public investment through the national productivity investment fund will provide the financial foundations for our industrial strategy, which was launched yesterday and builds on Britain’s strengths. Let me be clear that this charter is not consistent with Labour’s proposal to borrow at all times for anything that it terms “investment”. If any of my hon. Friends are thinking that that sounds horribly familiar, that is probably because it is essentially Gordon Brown’s old golden rule, which is the very antithesis of budget responsibility. We all know where that got us: an unsustainable boom in Government spending that took us into the great recession with the largest structural deficit in the G7. Labour’s big idea is to repeat the same mistake all over again. That is yet another demonstration that the Opposition are not willing to learn from the past and have no ideas for the future.

What I propose is different. The national productivity investment fund will be targeted at economic infrastructure projects, housing and research and development that will boost national productivity. The National Infrastructure Commission will ensure that our future infrastructure decisions are based on independent, robust analysis. We choose to invest in productivity not just because doing so can transform the growth potential of our economy, but because it contributes to addressing the social challenges that we face. Sustainable living standards, for all parts of our country and all sectors of our population, depend on our improving our productivity through better skills, opportunities to retrain, better infrastructure and better private investment. That investment is possible only because we are prepared to take tough decisions to maintain control of current spending.

As the OBR made clear last week in its fiscal sustainability report, the end of the Parliament is not the end of the challenge. That report contains some tough messages and some important early warnings. The OBR sets out clearly the significant challenges we will face as our population continues to age over the next half century. Driven by increasing life expectancy, low fertility rates and the retirement of the baby boomer bulge, our dependency ratio will go from 3.5 people of working age supporting each retiree to just 2.2 in 2066. The OBR projects that those demographic trends will lead to increased spending in age-related areas such as health, long-term care and the state pension, but that the same demographic and economic trends mean that revenues will remain broadly stable.

The OBR notes that we are not the only country facing those challenges. It also notes that the long-term figures are highly uncertain and should be seen as illustrative projections rather than precise forecasts. None the less, the potential impact on the public finances is significant.

On the assumption of no policy response—in other words, that the Government do nothing, which I promise hon. Members will not be the case—debt could rise to 234% of GDP by the end of the 50-year projection period, with two thirds of the increase since the 2015 report attributable to healthcare spending. In the rather nearer term, the report also shows that without further policy action we will not hit a surplus in the next Parliament.

That is why at autumn statement 2016 I reiterated that the tax and spending commitments for this Parliament set out in the 2015 spending review will be delivered, and we will meet our manifesto commitments to protect the budgets of priority public services. I also confirmed that the Government will review public spending priorities and other commitments for the next Parliament in the light of the evolving fiscal position at the next spending review. There will be more difficult choices to make before we have completed the job of restoring the public finances to health.

Controlling our welfare bill is a vital element of getting back to balance. At £220 billion, welfare represents a quarter of all Government spending. In the absence of an effective framework, spending on working-age benefits tripled in real terms between 1980 and 2014. By 2014, each person in work in this country was contributing, on average, £3,000 per year to the cost of working-age benefits. Action taken since 2010, including the welfare cap in the previous charter, has stabilised welfare spending, and we will maintain that stability.

The charter before the House introduces a new medium-term welfare cap, which is set to reflect the current forecast of eligible welfare spend, taking into account the policy changes made since the last Budget. The cap will apply to welfare spending in 2021-22, and performance against this cap will be formally assessed by the OBR once—in the year before that, 2020-21. In the interim, progress towards the cap will be monitored by the Government, based on the OBR’s forecasts of welfare spending. Shifting from an annual to a medium-term cap will avoid the Government having to make short-term responses to changes in the welfare forecast, while ensuring that welfare spending remains sustainable over the medium term.

Let me reiterate to the House what I have said previously: the Government will deliver the overall total of welfare savings already identified, but we have no plans to introduce further welfare savings in this Parliament beyond those already announced.

[Michael Fabricant]

My right hon. Friend is being very generous in giving way. He quite rightly points out that Brexit creates uncertainty, which business does not like, but on the welfare cap and overall welfare spending, can he identify any advantages from Brexit? Tighter controls on certain types of immigration might mean that the forecasts are lower than he anticipates.

[Mr Hammond]

My hon. Friend is of course right that we will have the ability to set our own immigration controls after leaving the European Union, and there could be an impact at the margin on welfare claims. I think the OBR would say, although this is for them, not for me, that that would probably have quite a marginal effect, as all the data suggest.

This and the previous Government have made significant progress in bringing this country back from the brink of financial collapse and fiscal ruin. The framework provided by our charter for budget responsibility played a major role. My predecessor aspired to eliminate the deficit entirely in this Parliament, but autumn statement 2016 revealed new fiscal pressures and the referendum result has created additional uncertainty in the economy. When the facts change, it is right to change plans. This charter strikes the right balance for our current circumstances. It is a credible plan to restore the public finances to health, with enough flexibility to support the economy in the short term and scope to invest in productivity to boost real wages and living standards in the medium term. It is a charter that will support Brexit, helping us through the short-term uncertainty and preparing us to seize the opportunities that lie beyond it. It is a charter that underpins our vision of an economy that works for everyone, and I commend it to the House.

--- Later in debate ---

[John McDonnell]

The right hon. Gentleman will recall my opposition to PFI and its failures, but let me be clear: to borrow for investment, to ensure that people have the skills and resources necessary to tackle the productivity crisis and thereby grow the economy and create the high skills and wages which mean that people can pay their taxes and fund our public services, is creditable; however, what we have seen over the last seven years is borrowing because of the failure of the Government’s economic policy.

In the past seven years, the Government have actually cut investment, and the consequences of insufficient investment are painfully clear. Austerity measures and low investment have fed directly into what the Governor of the Bank of England has called a “lost decade” for earnings. Productivity growth has stagnated, as even the Government’s own industrial strategy White Paper acknowledged. I share the Chancellor’s concerns: every hour worked in Britain now produces a third less than every hour worked in the US, Germany and France. We have been arguing that case at least since I became shadow Chancellor, but we had no acknowledgment of it from the Government until yesterday.

With that record of under-investment, it is no use those on the Government Benches talking about a post-Brexit Britain taking on the world. An economy with low productivity can compete only on the lowest common denominator, and that means, as has happened, slashing wages and salaries and hacking away at social protections, such as the NHS and pensions. This is the grim reality of the Conservative’s low-investment, low-productivity, low-wage economy, and it can easily get worse. For some on the Government Benches, an economy shorn of basic protections in the workplace, with rock-bottom wages and social spending provisions stripped to the barest minimum, would be a desirable goal. We have had a glimpse of that future in the Chancellor’s own threats to turn Britain into a tax haven. Even to hold out this prospect is to admit that the Government have no better plan than the steady management of decline.

[Michael Fabricant]

I have been in opposition, so I understand what the right hon. Gentleman is doing, but there has to be a little reality in his speech. We are the fastest-growing economy in the G7. Like him, I have been to France, Germany and Spain. Is he aware of the rates of unemployment in those countries?

[John McDonnell]

Let us look at what is happening outside in the real world. We welcome the growth in employment, but we have also experienced the biggest fall in wages among OECD countries over the past seven to 10 years—the figure of 10.4% is matched only by Greece. One in five employees in this country were low-paid in 2015. Mark Carney has called this the biggest lost decade for income growth since the 1860s. The number of self-employed people has increased dramatically, but on average they earn less than 20 years ago. So, yes, I welcome the growth in employment, but I do not welcome the growth in poverty pay, whether for the self-employed or those being exploited on zero-hours contracts.

[Michael Fabricant]

The right hon. Gentleman will know that the Joseph Rowntree Foundation says that the gap between the rich and the poor has actually reduced since 2010. In addition, when people on zero-hours contracts were polled, more than half said that they wanted the flexibility of those contracts. Yes, people in self-employment often earn less, but it is their decision. I was self-employed when I created my own company, but I chose to do that, rather than earning more in a larger corporation.

[John McDonnell]

What we now have in our economy is a scandal of bogus self-employment. A lot of the growth in self-employment has happened on that basis, and it includes the most exploitative aspects. The hon. Gentleman mentions inequality, so let us look at some of the figures. If we use an index other than the Gini coefficient, which does not take into account the real outstripping of the super-rich, such as the P90/P10 ratio—this looks at the 10th and 90th percentiles of income distribution—we find that inequality has risen every year over the past five years. Let us look at what has happened out there in individual companies. If we compare the average total pay of FTSE 100 chief executives with that of their employees in 2015, we find a ratio of 129:1; in the mid-1990s, it was no more than 45:1. That shows the grotesque levels of inequality that result from the economy that has been created over the past seven years.

Yesterday’s Green Paper seemed to recognise the failure of previous policy, and there has certainly been a change of rhetoric. The Prime Minister has suddenly been won over by the merits of an active industrial policy. The recognition that the six previous years have failed badly is welcome, but nowhere is it clear that the Government recognise the scale of the problem. The weaknesses and inequalities in our economy stem from decades of underinvestment, when decisions about what and where to invest have been taken by too few people at the top and to the benefit of that tiny handful. That leads to an economy in which the Government are planning for more than £5,000 of investment per head in London, compared with just £413 in the north-east of England. It is an economy in which a single London capital project receives more Government backing than the whole of Yorkshire, and in which the £500 million promised yesterday for the north of England is set against £18 billion of cuts from local authority budgets since 2010.

--- Later in debate ---

[George Kerevan]

Not if we take into account the fact that if inflation starts to rise, the Bank of England, as the hon. Gentleman knows, has decided to let that inflation flow through the economy. The Bank explains that inflation in terms of the falling pound, and it is going to let inflation rise to about 3%, the top of its current forecast range. The Bank thinks that inflation will then start to decline again, but others, such as the Federation of Small Businesses, think that inflation will go above that core forecast. We could be looking at 5% inflation in two years’ time, which would have a crippling effect. [Interruption.]

The Chancellor shakes his head. All I am doing is quoting the Federation of Small Businesses, which is not an irresponsible organisation. It thinks that the Bank of England’s core forecast—taking us up to 3% against the consumer prices index—will actually be exceeded, which is a strong possibility. If we go beyond 3% inflation and head up to 5%—and remember that the Bank of England said that it will not raise interest rates to combat such a rise in inflation—consumer spending will start to fall.

In reply to the question I was asked by the hon. Member for Horsham (Jeremy Quin), my argument is that if consumer spending tanks, we are in a hard Brexit, foreign investment is falling and firms are reluctant to conduct business investment, the only agency left to plug the gap is the Government. I am pointing out that the Chancellor, rather than waiting for that to happen, beyond which point it would take two or three years for the fiscal policy to kick in, should be doing it now. That is the basic point that I am trying to make.

[Michael Fabricant]

I am listening to the hon. Gentleman with great interest and I like his debating style—it reminds me of an old professor I had at university—but has he not just contradicted himself? Early on, he said that he does not see the need for any change, although we are changing the rules, and then he gave us a nightmare scenario of the future because of Brexit and said we do need change. He has to make up his mind.

[George Kerevan]

I am very clear. I do not say that the rules should be changed, because I do not like the original rules and I do not like the rules that are being proposed. I do believe in the principle that there should be fiscal rules; there should be a fiscal mandate to restrain a Government. So my primary point, to begin with, was that if we keep changing the rules that mandate does not exist, and this Government only pay lip service to them.

Under my set of rules—I do not have the time tonight to go substantially into them and I will not press the patience of the Speaker—there would be a restraint on current expenditure, although I am more liberal when it comes to capital expenditure, which, provided it is linked to trend growth, can be counter-cyclical. We can go into that another time. It does not matter what the present rules are. The fact that the Government keep changing them is the point at issue, which is why the charter is not worth the paper it is written on—they will change it in a few months anyway. They say that is their general principle.

Let me try to come to some conclusions. Back in 1956, Harold Macmillan gave his one and only Budget speech as Chancellor. What was the ratio of the national debt to GDP? It was 150%—almost double what it is today. I read that speech the other day; I forbear to read it out, but it quoted Macaulay. Macmillan read out half of one of Macaulay’s essays—we had quite sophisticated Chancellors in those days, Mr Speaker.

Macmillan went through practically every Administration since the 1600s. In every Administration, somebody got up and complained about the level of the national debt. Macmillan’s was an expansionary Budget, let me say, with a debt to GDP ratio of 150%. Macmillan, having worked his way through Macaulay, made the point that when we look back we see the benefits of that borrowing and investment, but when we look forward all we see is the dangers. Macmillan said that the trouble is, that stops us being bold.

I would like this Chancellor to be bold. I would like him to spend more money. I would like him to spend the money before the Brexit recession hits, rather than wait until it happens and then say, “Well, I have some weapons in the armoury to deal with it.” Let us deal with the problem before it happens. That is my point.