Gross Domestic Product: Wales and the UK
Lord Wigley Excerpts(1 year, 4 months ago)
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Lord Wigley
To ask His Majesty’s Government what are their latest figures for the gross domestic product per head of population for (1) Wales, and (2) the United Kingdom.
The Parliamentary Secretary, HM Treasury (Baroness Penn) (Con)
My Lords, the latest Office for National Statistics data show that in 2021 gross domestic product—GDP—per head, at current prices, was £25,665 for Wales and £33,745 for the UK. The UK Government have made significant interventions aimed at boosting GDP in Wales and across the UK, including the £4.8 billion levelling-up fund, the £2.6 billion UK shared prosperity fund and delivering on investment zones and freeports.
Lord Wigley (PC)
My Lords, do these figures not speak volumes? They underline the failure of successive Governments to close the gap between Wales and England. With the relevant economic levers being shared between Whitehall and Senedd Cymru, is it not essential that the two co-operate on these economic matters? Does the Minister appreciate how much this is undermined by the refusal of the Chief Secretary of the Treasury to attend the Senedd’s finance committee? Is she aware that her colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Bourne, told that committee in Cardiff last week that a duty should be placed on the Chief Secretary to attend such committees when required? He said that
“if it needs putting on a statutory basis … that needs to happen”.
Does she agree?
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, perhaps I can provide a little reassurance to the noble Lord. Yes, the gap between GDP per head in Wales and the rest of the UK is too large, but Wales has had the highest growth in GDP per head since 2010 of all regions and nations across the UK, increasing by 15.7% compared with 6.9% across the UK. He talked about the Welsh Government and the UK Government working together. That is something that we have done successfully on city and growth deals across Wales that were developed jointly by the UK Government and the Welsh Government. This included £500 million for the Cardiff capital region and over £100 million in north Wales and Swansea. On his point about the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, he works hard and closely with the devolved Administrations—I know that is something he is very committed to—but I will take the noble Lord’s specific point away.
European Structural and Investment Funds and the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund
Lord Wigley Excerpts(1 year, 8 months ago)
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Baroness Penn (Con)
My noble friend is right that, in both schemes, as the EU funding falls away, the UK funding comes in to replace it. We are seeking to do that in as smooth a way as possible. When it comes to support for farmers, we will continue to set out next steps on our environmental land management schemes, including the sustainable farming initiative, Countryside Stewardship and landscape recovery. On the shared prosperity fund, I reassure my noble friend that that fund is ramping up as EU funding falls away; its profile is faster than the way in which previous EU funding had been distributed.
Lord Wigley (PC)
My Lords, is the Minister aware that, when Wales first received structural funds from the European Union in 2000, that money was accepted by the Treasury in the UK and was not initially passed over to the beneficiaries, on the basis that they were already getting adequate money from the Treasury? It needed the intervention of Michel Barnier, the regional commissioner at that time, to get the Treasury to pass that money over. Will she give a guarantee that all money that is supposed to be equivalent to structural funds will be additional to the base spending for the areas that need it?
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, the commitment that the Government have made is that the replacement of EU funding in each nation will meet the levels that they previously received. That is the commitment that we are delivering through the shared prosperity fund.
Devolved Budget for Wales: Inflation
Lord Wigley Excerpts(1 year, 8 months ago)
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Baroness Penn (Con)
I believe the noble Lord was referring to the Lords Committee on the Barnett Formula in 2009, which called for a review of that, including implementing a needs-based factor. That is exactly what we have done through implementing the recommendations of the Holtham commission, which found that the Welsh Government should have at least 15% more per person than equivalent UK government spending to reflect the Welsh Government’s additional needs. In fact, that figure is 20% more per person in the 2021 spending review, which is about £1 million more each year than the Holtham commission indicated and which the Welsh Government agreed was fair for Wales relative to England.
Lord Wigley (PC)
My Lords, did not the Holtham commission have as one of its three points the need to do away with the Barnett formula as it exists and to replace it with a needs-based formula? That has not been accepted by the Government. Will they please think again?
Baroness Penn (Con)
Instead of removing the Barnett formula, we have amended it to include that needs-based factor. The Barnett formula is simple and efficient and provides a clear and certain outcome. With the addition of the needs-based factor, the people of Wales have the guarantee that funding based on their own needs will not fall below the assessment of where those needs are.
Public Spending: Barnett Formula
Lord Wigley Excerpts(1 year, 8 months ago)
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Lord Wigley (PC)
My Lords, I am delighted to follow the noble Baroness and congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Hendy, on his delightful maiden speech. I warmed very much when he mentioned the Barnett consequences of HS2—I will mention those in a moment. I am sure we all look forward to his future contributions to debates in this Chamber. I also thank the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, for bringing this debate and giving us an opportunity from various angles to address aspects of the Barnett formula.
I am probably the only Member here who spoke in the Commons debate when the Barnett formula was introduced in 1978. I then warned that it would freeze the financial relationships between our four nations and ossify Wales into a dependency relationship in which the consequences of historic industrial and social patterns would place high demands on healthcare and housing budgets.
In opposition, Welsh Labour MPs called for a needs- based formula to replace Barnett, but when in government they failed to deliver. That was partly, I believe, because the Chancellor and then Prime Minister Gordon Brown was a Scottish MP and feared that a needs-based formula might penalise Scotland.
When the Barnett formula was introduced in 1978, Joel Barnett proposed it as a short-term measure. Four decades later, the then Lord Barnett described its continued application as an embarrassment. Its fundamental weakness for Wales is that it takes as its starting point the situation that existed in 1978. The Government have acknowledged that the baseline for Barnett is created by “rolling forward existing spending”. That assumes that the spending in 1978 was appropriate to Wales’s needs and that no fundamental change in the relationships between Wales and England has happened since. But there has been a dramatic differential change arising from the ending of the coal industry and hugely reduced employment in steel. The formula’s other central weakness is that adjustments to the base spending levels were not needs related. Subsequent editions relate to spending levels determined by Westminster as appropriate for England.
It is fair to say that over the period from 2000 until Brexit hit home, Wales benefited from European regional and social funds. We received that aid because the per capita GDP in 15 of Wales’s 22 counties was below 75% of the EU figure. Wales was accorded European funding in 1999 because of the failure of UK economic policy to regenerate the Welsh economy. EU aid was essentially a recognition of need.
The challenge was to raise the economic activity levels, which ran at six percentage points lower than England. There is some irony that the issue of lowered economic activity levels is now being experienced in England as well. I question whether successive Labour-led Governments in Cardiff used those European resources in a strategic manner to put right the underlying weaknesses of our economy. Money was given out to support worthy projects that were welcomed in local communities but often did not address the underlying problem. EU funding was intended to address these needs-based issues. The Barnett formula does not even try to do so.
The Barnett formula was reviewed by a House of Lords Select Committee in 2009 and by the Holtham commission in 2010. Both criticised the formula, principally because it is not needs related. To highlight one aspect of its deficiency, over recent years public expenditure per capita in Wales has been very close to that of London, notwithstanding the greater needs of Wales on a host of indicators. Analysis from 2022 showed that total identifiable public expenditure per capita in 2020-21 was £14,222 in Wales and £15,490 in London. If per capita expenditure had been the same in Wales as in London, Wales would have received an extra £4 billion.
I accept that only half of government expenditure in Wales comes through the Barnett formula and the rest is direct Treasury funding for non-devolved matters. But over the Covid period, London benefited disproportionately from central government spending, despite the costs of Covid being felt all around these islands and the health services being largely devolved.
Another glaring example relates to HS2, as we have heard. Normally, if such a project cost, say, £100 billion in England, the Barnett consequential for Wales would be about £5 billion. Instead, Wales receives nothing because HS2 is defined as an England and Wales project, despite not a single mile of it running through Wales. Will the Minister tell the House who made that decision? Not one mile of HS2 is in Wales; indeed, a KPMG study for HS2 Ltd shows that Wales would lose competitive advantage as a result of it. That report projects Scotland as gaining competitive advantage, yet Scotland gets a Barnett consequential from HS2 and Wales does not. In responding to this debate, the Minister should announce that Wales will get a full Barnett consequential from HS2, as demanded by the Conservative leader in the Senedd. If she fails to indicate government rethinking on this issue, many Tory MPs in Wales will pay the price.
In their response to the Select Committee report, Cm 7772, the Government promised to keep the operation of the Barnett formula under review. In responding to this debate, will the Minister tell the House exactly when it was last reviewed, what material evidence arose from any such review and when it was published?
The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, at Question Time on 18 January, acknowledged that the Barnett formula was not serving Wales well and called for it to be scrapped and replaced by a needs-based formula. The Minister has repeatedly said, in this Chamber on 18 January and again this afternoon, that the Government have responded to the demands of the Holtham commission that Welsh funding should be decided on a needs basis. I say here, as emphatically as I can, that they have not.
The Holtham report contained three core demands. The first was to establish a Barnett floor to stop the ongoing systematic convergence of the Welsh allocation per capita with that of England. It would, in Holtham’s words, prevent even further underfunding of public services in Wales.
Lord Wigley (PC)
I am winding up now. As I was saying, it does not do anything to put right the level of underfunding that Wales has systematically suffered and that is built into the present settlement. That is why Holtham recommended, crucially, that Barnett be replaced by a “needs-based” methodology to get financial provision in line with Wales’s needs. Please will the Minister confirm that case?
Wales: Additional Financial Resources
Lord Wigley Excerpts(1 year, 10 months ago)
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Lord Wigley
To ask His Majesty’s Government what additional financial resources they have made available to the government of Wales, over and above the Barnett formula consequential provisions, to meet unforeseen financial needs for which no provision was made in Wales 2022-23 expenditure plans.
The Parliamentary Secretary, HM Treasury (Baroness Penn) (Con)
The Welsh Government are well funded to meet their devolved responsibilities. The 2021 spending review set out the largest annual settlement in real terms since the devolution Act. This is still growing in real terms this year. The Welsh Government also have their own tax and borrowing powers. On top of this, the UK Government are supporting households UK-wide with the cost of living, and supporting businesses, charities and the public sector with their energy bills.
Lord Wigley (PC)
My Lords, is the Minister aware that Wales Fiscal Analysis, at Cardiff University, has shown that, even after taking into account the additional allocations made to the Welsh Government, the higher levels of inflation since the coming year’s budget was set could amount to an impact of £800 million in 2023-24, and that, consequently, real-terms spending on public services in Wales will fall by that amount? Will the Government now allocate an additional £800 million to the Welsh Government for the coming year, to avoid real cuts in essential services in Wales?
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, we have a difference of opinion on the figures. That might be because government budgets are routinely translated into real terms using the GDP deflator, by both the Treasury and independent bodies such as the OBR and the IFS. Using those figures, we see that the Welsh spending settlement is still growing in real terms this year and over the spending review period, even after the higher costs, and we believe that the Welsh Government are well funded to meet their obligations.