Public Spending: Barnett Formula

Lord Harlech Excerpts

Wednesday 15th March 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Wigley (PC)]

My Lords, I am delighted to follow the noble Baroness and congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Hendy, on his delightful maiden speech. I warmed very much when he mentioned the Barnett consequences of HS2—I will mention those in a moment. I am sure we all look forward to his future contributions to debates in this Chamber. I also thank the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, for bringing this debate and giving us an opportunity from various angles to address aspects of the Barnett formula.

I am probably the only Member here who spoke in the Commons debate when the Barnett formula was introduced in 1978. I then warned that it would freeze the financial relationships between our four nations and ossify Wales into a dependency relationship in which the consequences of historic industrial and social patterns would place high demands on healthcare and housing budgets.

In opposition, Welsh Labour MPs called for a needs- based formula to replace Barnett, but when in government they failed to deliver. That was partly, I believe, because the Chancellor and then Prime Minister Gordon Brown was a Scottish MP and feared that a needs-based formula might penalise Scotland.

When the Barnett formula was introduced in 1978, Joel Barnett proposed it as a short-term measure. Four decades later, the then Lord Barnett described its continued application as an embarrassment. Its fundamental weakness for Wales is that it takes as its starting point the situation that existed in 1978. The Government have acknowledged that the baseline for Barnett is created by “rolling forward existing spending”. That assumes that the spending in 1978 was appropriate to Wales’s needs and that no fundamental change in the relationships between Wales and England has happened since. But there has been a dramatic differential change arising from the ending of the coal industry and hugely reduced employment in steel. The formula’s other central weakness is that adjustments to the base spending levels were not needs related. Subsequent editions relate to spending levels determined by Westminster as appropriate for England.

It is fair to say that over the period from 2000 until Brexit hit home, Wales benefited from European regional and social funds. We received that aid because the per capita GDP in 15 of Wales’s 22 counties was below 75% of the EU figure. Wales was accorded European funding in 1999 because of the failure of UK economic policy to regenerate the Welsh economy. EU aid was essentially a recognition of need.

The challenge was to raise the economic activity levels, which ran at six percentage points lower than England. There is some irony that the issue of lowered economic activity levels is now being experienced in England as well. I question whether successive Labour-led Governments in Cardiff used those European resources in a strategic manner to put right the underlying weaknesses of our economy. Money was given out to support worthy projects that were welcomed in local communities but often did not address the underlying problem. EU funding was intended to address these needs-based issues. The Barnett formula does not even try to do so.

The Barnett formula was reviewed by a House of Lords Select Committee in 2009 and by the Holtham commission in 2010. Both criticised the formula, principally because it is not needs related. To highlight one aspect of its deficiency, over recent years public expenditure per capita in Wales has been very close to that of London, notwithstanding the greater needs of Wales on a host of indicators. Analysis from 2022 showed that total identifiable public expenditure per capita in 2020-21 was £14,222 in Wales and £15,490 in London. If per capita expenditure had been the same in Wales as in London, Wales would have received an extra £4 billion.

I accept that only half of government expenditure in Wales comes through the Barnett formula and the rest is direct Treasury funding for non-devolved matters. But over the Covid period, London benefited disproportionately from central government spending, despite the costs of Covid being felt all around these islands and the health services being largely devolved.

Another glaring example relates to HS2, as we have heard. Normally, if such a project cost, say, £100 billion in England, the Barnett consequential for Wales would be about £5 billion. Instead, Wales receives nothing because HS2 is defined as an England and Wales project, despite not a single mile of it running through Wales. Will the Minister tell the House who made that decision? Not one mile of HS2 is in Wales; indeed, a KPMG study for HS2 Ltd shows that Wales would lose competitive advantage as a result of it. That report projects Scotland as gaining competitive advantage, yet Scotland gets a Barnett consequential from HS2 and Wales does not. In responding to this debate, the Minister should announce that Wales will get a full Barnett consequential from HS2, as demanded by the Conservative leader in the Senedd. If she fails to indicate government rethinking on this issue, many Tory MPs in Wales will pay the price.

In their response to the Select Committee report, Cm 7772, the Government promised to keep the operation of the Barnett formula under review. In responding to this debate, will the Minister tell the House exactly when it was last reviewed, what material evidence arose from any such review and when it was published?

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, at Question Time on 18 January, acknowledged that the Barnett formula was not serving Wales well and called for it to be scrapped and replaced by a needs-based formula. The Minister has repeatedly said, in this Chamber on 18 January and again this afternoon, that the Government have responded to the demands of the Holtham commission that Welsh funding should be decided on a needs basis. I say here, as emphatically as I can, that they have not.

The Holtham report contained three core demands. The first was to establish a Barnett floor to stop the ongoing systematic convergence of the Welsh allocation per capita with that of England. It would, in Holtham’s words, prevent even further underfunding of public services in Wales.

[Lord Harlech (Con)]

My Lords, I am sorry to interrupt the noble Lord—

[Lord Wigley (PC)]

I am winding up now. As I was saying, it does not do anything to put right the level of underfunding that Wales has systematically suffered and that is built into the present settlement. That is why Holtham recommended, crucially, that Barnett be replaced by a “needs-based” methodology to get financial provision in line with Wales’s needs. Please will the Minister confirm that case?