Royal Marines

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Tuesday 4th April 2017

(7 years, 1 month ago)

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Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, the Royal Marines are certainly not redundant. As the noble Baroness knows, they have a worldwide reputation as one of the world’s elite fighting forces. But at the same time it is important that we look at matching roles to tasks, and that lies at the nub of her Question.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, I do not think that the Minister is being completely clear when he talks about the growth in numbers. The 2010 SDSR led to a reduction of around 4,000 naval personnel, which was a ridiculous number, and only 400 were added five years later. There is a shortage of money in the Navy, and it is no good saying that the Navy makes the choice: it is having to make very hard decisions because it is underfunded. Does the Minister not agree that there is a lack of coherence in our amphibious capability, in that we are paying off HMS “Ocean” early, having spent £65 million on her; we have sold an LSD(A) to the Australians and have an LPD in reserve; and now we are talking about reducing the number of Royal Marines?

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, I do not accept the picture being painted by the noble Lord. As he knows, the annual budget cycle is our yearly process which allocates resources to defence spending requirements for the next 10 years. It focuses on ensuring that the programme is affordable and balances military and financial risk. The 2017 annual budget cycle is in fact still under way, but the process means that we continually reassess our financial position and prioritise accordingly.

Type 31 Frigate

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Monday 3rd April 2017

(7 years, 1 month ago)

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Asked by
Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead
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To ask Her Majesty’s Government when they will have to cut the first steel on the Type 31 frigate that will replace the last Type 23 when it pays off on its due date.

Earl Howe Portrait The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)
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My Lords, in the SDSR we committed to maintaining the Royal Navy’s frigate and destroyer fleet of 19 warships and to increasing it by the 2030s. This included our commitment to the Type 26 and Type 31E general purpose frigate. We will provide further detail on the plans for the Type 31E in the national shipbuilding strategy, which will be published in spring 2017.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, I thank the noble Earl for his Answer, but I am rather disappointed. It seems extraordinary that the noble Earl, whose illustrious ancestor raised the siege of Gibraltar, had not told his noble friend Lord Howard about the parlous state of our Armed Forces before his comments on Sunday. The noble Earl quite rightly said that the Government are committed to there being more frigates. I cannot see how that can occur by 2035, by which time the oldest of the Type 23s will be 35 years old. Does he agree that a steady drumbeat of orders is absolutely necessary, because we will then have sufficient escorts to do what is required by this nation? It will drive down costs and make those ships easier to buy and to sell abroad; we will have much greater capability, innovation and growth of skills within our industries.

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, all the latter points made by the noble Lord are well made and I agree with him. The steady drumbeat was a point emphasised by Sir John Parker in his advice to the Government. I hope the noble Lord will not have long to wait for the national shipbuilding strategy. It will provide further detail on how and when the Type 31 will be procured and how this will align with the Type 23 frigate replacement programme and the Type 26 build programme.

Armed Forces Act (Continuation) Order 2017

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Tuesday 21st March 2017

(7 years, 2 months ago)

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Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, I thank the Government for the opportunity for this debate, which is extremely timely. Indeed, there is so much going on at the moment that our nation and the Government seem to have lost sight of the growing threats to our security and, in the worst case, our very existence.

I draw noble Lords’ attention to my speech in the defence debate on 12 January when I articulated the perfect storm of threats and uncertainties threatening global security. I spoke in some detail of Russia, the Middle East and the countries there, terrorism, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, China and cyberthreats. Today, I am sure that many noble Lords will talk about the significance of cyber in all of our considerations. As the country’s first ever cybersecurity Minister who produced the nation’s first cybersecurity policy, I am well aware of that threat. However, I reiterate what I said in the last defence debate: spending on cybercapability is not an alternative to conventional defence spending, as some, particularly the Treasury, seem to think. It is necessary spending, but it is additional.

We are entering a hypercompetitive age in which illiberal power is growing and liberal power declining. It is a world made dangerous by Europe’s retreat from power and its wilful refusal until recently to invest in power. There are real dangers of an even more chaotic and highly dangerous world developing over the next decades, not least within the context of possibly irreversible climate change and an ever-increasing competition for resources of all kinds amidst a rapidly expanding world population. That population pressure is enormous and worrying. The dramatic rise in the numbers of migrants fleeing either war and persecution or economic hardship are a stark reflection of this.

Recent events have shown that the late 20th-century consensus that rested on the perception that the international system benefited both the US and global interests seems to be breaking down. We cannot be sure how much longer the US will be willing or able to bear the burdens of being the protector of last resort for the free world and will remain the ultimate guarantor of a rules-based international system. Nor can we assume that the idea of a multilateral rules-based world for diplomacy and economics will necessarily survive the population and resource pressures of the early decades of the 21st century. Our human record in circumstances of intense competition across all dimensions has not been good. Robust defence forces may prevent, contain or mitigate the consequences of a uniquely threatening combination of global and strategic risks.

Our nation, despite what the chattering classes may say, unlike most countries in Europe is a global power, and global stability is crucial to the wealth and security of our nation. Brexit, if anything, reinforces that fact. Our soft power, with the all-pervasive English language, the fact that the financial hub of London sits on the Greenwich meridian, the best universities in the world, the BBC World Service, a globally admired legal system and so on has great leverage—but, in many situations, it is as nothing without hard power to back it up.

In the face of the threats we face, what have the Government done? They have shown staggering complacency and self-delusion when it is quite clear to experts and laymen that defence needs more resources. When in coalition they reduced our military capability by 30% and our forces remain underfunded. Despite what the Defence Secretary says, there is minimal new money. It is, in theory, being produced by efficiencies. The HCDC has pointed out the creative accounting in the 2% figure, which has been mentioned by other speakers, for spending on defence. Spending on pensions does not win wars, and the 2% of GDP is not a target but the very minimum that any NATO nation should spend. Our nation should spend more.

Others will speak about lack of Army numbers and the inability to generate a fighting division in a meaningful timescale, but I, as the noble Lord, Lord King, spotted, will focus on maritime, which I believe is crucial for global reach and stability, as well as the protection of our shipping and dependencies. The Defence Secretary himself called this year the Year of the Navy. The simple fact is that the Royal Navy has too few ships to do what the nation expects of it. It has been underfunded against its core programme by £250 million a year for the last three years. That is three-quarters of a billion pounds. It also took a forced reduction of 4,000 men in the dreadful 2010 SDSR, recovering only 400 in SDSR 2015. We must fully fund an uplift of people for the Navy, I believe by around 3,000 people, and we need to put that in the programme and ensure that we recruit to it. The combined effect of a lack of funding and lack of people, particularly engineers, is having a profound impact on our nation’s maritime capability.

Before looking at the Navy in more detail, it is worth reflecting on the very real problems that exist in our procurement world—although I know that the Government are trying to tackle those. Indeed, there are some interesting articles in the House magazine this week—I wrote one myself but there are some from other contributors as well—on this specific subject. Moving back to the Navy, the decision to proceed with the Successor programme is fundamental to the ultimate security of our nation and I compliment the Government on the fact that we are proceeding with it. However, Trident is not a war-fighting weapon. I remain convinced that the capital costs of the Vanguard replacement submarines should fall outside the defence vote and come from Treasury contingency funds. Such a move would remove the yawning cash black hole that is appearing in our defence programme.

Two new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers are being built and again I must congratulate the Government on recognising their importance. The future carrier battle group is the only conventional asset our nation will possess that has global strategic significance, and the US cannot wait for them to be operational. But it appears that there are problems. There seems to be no certainty about when sea trials will commence and there is a lack of transparency over whether the delay is being caused by a major technical problem or just the sort of snags one would expect from a highly complex programme of this type. Perhaps the noble Earl could update us on where the programme stands. The build-up of the Sea Lightning squadrons is crucial, as is the operational availability of the Crowsnest early warning system and the new solid support ships. When will all this come together to allow us to deploy a fully functioning carrier battle group? Perhaps the noble Earl could tell us when we will be able to do that with our own resources.

A carrier battle group, if facing a peer threat, needs a nuclear attack submarine, two Type 45 destroyers and two to three Type 26 frigates in company. At present our great maritime nation with its huge maritime history has in effect only 11 escorts fully capable of operations. When I joined the Navy it was 110. Today we have 19 altogether in our order of battle, which is a national disgrace—something I have said before. If five of the 19 are needed for the battle group, 14 are left to provide presence and stability in the south Atlantic, around the UK, around the Horn of Africa, in the Gulf, in the Mediterranean and the Far East. To provide one ship on task you need three, so simple arithmetic shows that we need 30, not 19—and there is no allowance in that for attrition.

In the Falklands we lost four escorts and 12 were badly damaged. When you fight, you have attrition. Delays in ordering the Type 26 frigate have resulted in cost rises and the initial plan to build 13 has been cut to eight. The much-vaunted Type 31 frigate is still a doodle on the drawing board and we await the much-heralded shipbuilding strategy with interest. It is difficult to see how the present Type 23s will be replaced one for one on their present planned disposal dates. Perhaps the Minister will let us know when we need to start cutting steel on the Type 31 frigates that will replace the last of the Type 23s.

Our amphibious force is about to take a major hit. Manpower and funding problems in the Navy have led to the decision to pay off HMS “Ocean” after a £65 million refit to run her on until 2025. The Government appear to be most complacent and have said that “Ocean’s” capability will be provided by other shipping. This is rubbish. I have commanded task groups and amphibious assault groups, and it is clear and well known that the only way of providing simultaneous two-company lift is to have a large deck with at least six spots that can be operated simultaneously and a hangar that can carry up to 12 or 14 helicopters. Anything else will not achieve it, and that amphibious capability is clearly laid out clearly in our doctrine. So we will lose our full amphibious capability until the “Prince of Wales” starts operating in the mid-2020s. I beg the noble Earl, as I have done before, in this highly dangerous world, the most chaotic I have known in my 50 years on the active list, to put “Ocean” in reserve in the way we are doing with “Bulwark”, so that if there is a crisis we can pull her out and use her.

Delays in ordering Type 26s have led to the ordering of extra, highly overpriced offshore patrol vessels to fill the Clyde yard—but any ship is of value and has utility. Hence I find the decision to pay off the relatively youthful batch 1 River class offshore patrol vessels, which are between 11 and 15 years old, slightly strange.

It is quite clear that there are insufficient maritime assets to ensure the security of UK inshore waters, particularly post Brexit, and there is a need for an urgent study into what craft are available, how many we need, and how command and control are to be executed and by whom. There may be a role for the RNR and batch 1 OPVs in this. Will a study be undertaken to look at this yawning gap in our nation’s maritime border security? Having robust defence forces makes a war involving our nation less likely. If Ministers get defence wrong, the nation will never forgive them. The costs in blood and treasure are enormous. It can be argued that the planned saving of £16 million by getting rid of HMS “Endurance” precipitated the Falklands War, at a final cost of 300 lives and £6.5 billion. The Government have a choice in whether to spend what is required to ensure the safety of our nation, dependencies and people, or not. At present, I believe that they are getting the choice wrong.

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Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, it is a mark of the experience that resides in this House that we have had the privilege of listening to so many well-informed, constructive and well-argued contributions to this debate today. It has been a truly memorable occasion in that sense. I begin by thanking most warmly all noble Lords and noble and gallant Lords who have spoken. In fulfilling the role that I occupy in government, I carry with me the reassurance that on all Benches in this House, without exception, there is unshakable support for the men and women of our Armed Forces and a passionate wish to ensure that they are led, equipped, trained and looked after to the highest standards in a way that enables them to fulfil, credibly and well, the tasks placed upon them by government. It is not surprising, with so many contributors and a Motion that is so deliberately broad in its scope, that the subject matter of your Lordships’ speeches should have been equally wide-ranging. I shall do my best, as I always do, to respond to as many noble Lords as I can in summing up. All questions asked of me will receive an answer, either today or in writing afterwards.

Let me start with some key aspects of the big picture and, first, the topic raised by a number of noble Lords: the UK’s defence budget. Not for the first time the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, raised questions around the 2% spending target. In particular, he cast doubt on whether we are genuinely spending 2%, a question echoed by the noble Baroness, Lady Crawley, and the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, who urged us to spend more, as did my noble friends Lord Sterling and Lord Robathan, the noble Earl, Lord Cork and Orrery, and the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham. Let me remind the House that we spend in excess of the NATO 2% minimum and are pledged to increase our defence spending in real terms year on year during this Parliament.

The noble Lords, Lord Rosser and Lord Touhig, accused the Government of creative accounting. As they would expect me to say, we do not accept those accusations. The House of Commons Defence Committee’s own report on the matter confirms that all UK spending on defence, including intelligence, cyber, war pensions and others, falls firmly within NATO’s guidelines. Given that defence spending will increase by £5 billion over this Parliament, it is nonsense to suggest that there is no new funding. Our plans will deliver more ships, more planes and more troops at readiness, better equipment for Special Forces and more on cyber, to help keep Britain safe.

However, I want to be fair. The question posed by a number of speakers is, essentially, whether 2% is enough for the UK to be spending. First, the noble Baroness, Lady Dean, rightly reminded us that 2% is a base figure. However, the commitment to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence came after a thorough examination of threats and risks, after which the Government decided on an appropriate level of funding. I acknowledge the honourable motives of noble Lords who urge us to spend substantially more. However, I challenge the Government’s critics to show how the strategic defence and security review failed to set out a clear and affordable strategy for delivering one of the most capable Armed Forces in the world. That was our aim, and the SDSR did that by including an expeditionary force of 50,000 by 2025, £1.9 billion for cyber investment, new capabilities for Special Forces and a commitment to spending more than £178 billion on equipment and equipment support, which is £12 billion more than in previous plans.

The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, and the noble Baroness, Lady Dean, referred to the drop in the exchange rate since last year. I can tell them that we built headroom into our forward plan to use in the SDSR, and that is what we did. We hold more than £5 billion of contingency in the equipment plan against an independently assessed financial risk of £4.8 billion. The forward purchase of foreign currency at agreed prices has provided cost stability in the early years of the programme. Longer-term challenges will, if necessary, be met through the normal planning process.

In addition, the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, rightly referred to the MoD’s efficiency target. We have a demanding target, as we should, given the Government’s objective to drive down the deficit. We are absolutely focused on delivering it.

The noble Lord, Lord Empey, questioned our commitment to spend 0.7% of GDP on overseas development aid. The rationale for this is to enable government to prioritise prevention and preparedness in fragile states and regions. By doing so we build stability and tackle the root causes of conflict as part of a whole-government approach to national security, alongside diplomatic, defence and law enforcement capabilities. That is particularly important for countries and regions at risk of instability. These strategies are co-ordinated and owned by the National Security Council. An expanded Conflict, Stability and Security Fund now exists to direct cross-departmental effort in fragile states, and the MoD is able to draw from that.

I was grateful to my noble friend Lord Attlee for his helpful comments on military capability. On that theme, let me address my noble friend Lord Sterling’s concerns about hollowing out and shortfalls in capability. No one in this debate has referred to the clear plan set out in the SDSR 2015 of Joint Force 2025. The key to understanding this concept is a simple proposition: it is to strengthen our Armed Forces while increasing their adaptability. Joint Force 2025 is designed to meet the more complex real-world challenges of today and to provide a greater ability to undertake the full range of different operations, including warfighting under NATO Article 5. It will enhance our ability to work alongside our key allies and partners, including providing a framework for the UK-led joint expeditionary force.

With the joint force, by 2025 we will be able to deploy a force of around 50,000 drawn from a maritime task group of around 10 to 25 ships and 4,000 to 10,000 personnel; an Army division of three brigades and supporting functions of around 30,000 to 40,000 personnel; an air group of around four to nine combat aircraft squadrons, six to 20 surveillance platforms and five to 15 transport aircraft, and 4,000 to 10,000 personnel; and joint forces, including enablers and headquarters, of around 2,000 to 6,000 personnel. This capability will allow us to meet the demands of multiple smaller and geographically dispersed operations, and to respond to the most significant challenges to national security, including a call to warfighting under NATO Article 5.

The large, sophisticated expeditionary force of around 50,000 at the centre of Joint Force 2025, combined with the development of our Special Forces, sends a powerful message to our adversaries and, I am sure, reassures our allies. While it is perfectly true that various capabilities announced through the SDSR 2015 will not come online until the 2020s, we have a significant equipment programme already delivering and we will be making improvements to our cyber and intelligence capabilities well before the next Parliament. Policy changes, particularly innovation and efficiency, will take root immediately, as will international by design.

Let me follow the latter theme. The noble Baroness, Lady Crawley, drew attention to the UK’s relationship with our most important ally, the United States. The UK and the US have the broadest, deepest, most advanced defence relationship of any two countries. Our collaboration extends across the full spectrum of defence, including intelligence and nuclear co-operation, scientific research and flagship capability programmes. This has continued under the new Administration. The Defence Secretary spoke to US Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, on his first day in office. They had a substantial bilateral in the margins of the February NATO Defence Ministers meeting and teams are looking at a future meeting in the next month. We have shared priorities. President Trump, Vice-President Pence and Secretary Mattis have all confirmed the US commitment to NATO. I am sure that will be welcomed by my noble friend Lord Jopling, whose speech I listened to with particular care and attention.

Similarly, no one can listen to the noble Lord, Lord Hennessy, without paying careful attention to his advice. I listened to the noble Lord’s reflections about the UK’s place in the world with great interest and I noted with care the rationale he advanced for establishing a royal commission. However, although eloquently argued, I cannot agree with his characterisation of the UK as a destabiliser nation. Our exit from the EU does not equate to a retreat from the world stage—quite the reverse. The policies that we committed to in the last SDSR will bring us into closer co-operation with a wider range of allies and partners. Brexit does not change that. It reinvigorates—it does not diminish—our capacity to bring stability to the vexing world that he describes.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Walker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Crawley, asked about our defence and security relationship with the EU after Brexit. The negotiations with the EU Commission, of course, are yet to commence, but we want to use our tools and privileged position in international affairs to continue to work with the EU on foreign, security and defence policy. Defining the specifics of the UK’s future foreign and security policy relationship with the EU will be an important consideration as we leave.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Walker, asked about the effect on defence were Scotland to vote for independence after Brexit. I hope he will not be disappointed by the answer I am about to give. The people of Scotland have already voted to remain in the UK. The UK Government continue to be strongly committed to Scotland remaining in the UK, so the MoD is not making any plans for Scottish independence. I can, however, say that the Government are firmly committed to the future of defence in Scotland and its continued vital role in defence. Scotland is home to military bases that provide essential capabilities for the defence of the UK as a whole. It benefits from billions of pounds of MoD contracts placed directly and indirectly with companies which sustain hundreds of jobs and careers.

On the subject of Brexit, I am led to the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Wallace of Saltaire, who referred to our bilateral defence links in Europe, as did the noble Baroness, Lady Crawley. The noble Lord asked about Germany. The UK is committed to strengthening its defence and security ties with Germany. Germany is a key ally for us, as recognised in the SDSR, in which Germany was elevated to a tier 1 defence relationship alongside the US and France. Germany has since reciprocated in the publication of its own 2016 defence review. We are enhancing our bilateral co-operation with Germany in the areas of operations, training and equipment. We are seeking to enhance our interoperability as well. We are driving towards closer joint working on innovation and equipment projects—which should, in the case of common aircraft such as Typhoon and A400M, for example, reduce support costs—improving our information sharing and working more closely in other areas such as cyber and capacity-building in countries outside Europe.

Our bilateral links in Europe will grow in importance, as I have said. The UK and France have been bound by mutual security commitments for over 100 years and we are now building an ever closer bilateral defence and security relationship through the 2010 Lancaster House treaties. These recognise that our history, interests, values, challenges and capabilities are so closely aligned and so deeply interlinked that it is the right strategic choice, and plain common sense, to work together to address the security challenges that we face.

As I expected, the noble Lord, Lord West, challenged the Government on the size of the Royal Navy. I entirely understand his perspective—as I do that of the noble Baroness, Lady Crawley, who spoke on a similar theme—but I do not share it. Not only is our fleet set to grow for the first time since World War II but its high-end technological capabilities will allow it to provide a better contribution and to retain a first-class Navy up to 2040 and beyond.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead
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I asked the noble Earl whether there would be more ships in the Navy by 2025 or fewer and, after a dialogue, we decided it would be one fewer. So it might be growing in weight but not in numbers.

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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It is certainly growing in weight but our ambition is for it to grow in numbers once the Type 31E destroyer comes on stream. We will maintain a destroyer and frigate fleet of at least 19 ships and we will look to increase that number by the 2030s. The Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers will be coming into service and the fleet will also be supported by a capable and renewed tanker fleet, with four new fleet tankers to add to our existing new fast fleet tankers in the short term and three new fleet solid support ships in the longer term. A fleet of up to five offshore patrol vessels will support our destroyers and frigates in delivering routine tasks and enhance our contribution to maritime security and fisheries protection.

The noble Lord, Lord West, asked about carrier capability. The first of our carriers, HMS “Queen Elizabeth”, will enter service in 2018, after which she will conduct flying trials. As he knows, in relation to the situation currently, where he asked about technical issues, there have been a number of issues associated with bringing the ship’s systems on line, but there is sufficient flexibility within the programme to allow us to complete the schedule on time. We still expect HMS “Queen Elizabeth” sea trials to commence in the summer of 2017.

I welcome the remarks of the noble Baroness, Lady Crawley, and the noble Lords, Lord Touhig and Lord West, on the Dreadnought programme. I can tell them that the construction of the first new Dreadnought-class submarines is under way following the contract award announced by the Defence Secretary on 1 October. On 20 December we published the 2016 annual report that updated Parliament on the United Kingdom’s future nuclear deterrent. This was the fifth update and, as with previous reports, it detailed the progress that we have made on the programme and its governance since the last update in the 2015 SDSR.

Also as set out in the SDSR, we are creating a new submarine delivery body for the procurement and in-service support of all nuclear submarines, to stand up in April 2017. I recognise that the noble Lord, Lord Levene, has concerns about this delivery model. The establishment of the submarine delivery body reflects the Government’s commitment to the nuclear enterprise and the unique scale, complexity and importance of this national endeavour. Its establishment reflects lessons learned from successful capital programmes found elsewhere in government which demonstrate that a dedicated organisation with a single focus can make a major contribution to successful delivery. It will also enable targeted investment to further enhance our performance on procurement and support, building on work taken forward under DE&S transformation.

As an executive agency, the submarine delivery body will have a clear cultural focus on delivering submarine procurement and support, time, cost and quality, and be the sole organisation responsible within the MoD for doing so. That provides for clear lines of accountability and allows us to create a closer relationship between the delivery body and its customers.

I depart from those noble Lords who argue that the deterrent should not feature in the defence vote. If the budget for the deterrent lay elsewhere, it is certain that the MoD budget would go down. However, it surely is right that the MoD pays for the nuclear deterrent as the Royal Navy is responsible for delivering it 24/7, all the year round, and has done so without rest for nearly 50 years.

The noble Lord, Lord Judd, asked what we were doing to promote nuclear disarmament. In February 2016 the UK proposed a programme of work at the conference on disarmament in Geneva with the aim of reinvigorating the conference’s work. The P5 process initiated by the UK brings together nuclear weapon states to build trust and confidence to help develop the conditions which would enable disarmament. Over the coming year we will continue to press for key steps towards multilateral disarmament, including the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and successful negotiations on a fissile material cut-off treaty in the conference on disarmament.

I agree with much of what the noble Lord, Lord Levene, said about the principles underpinning our approach to defence procurement, and the same applies to the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Stamford. The noble Lord, Lord Davies, spoke about the propulsion issues affecting the Type 45 class. There is good news on that front about which I will write to him, and I will write to the noble Lord, Lord West, about Type 31E. The noble Baroness, Lady Crawley, asked about Plymouth Devonport. The naval service is developing a strategy that will focus on centres of specialisation. This includes an amphibious centre of specialisation in the south-west based around Devonport.

My noble friend Lord Robathan spoke about the importance of maintaining our efforts to recruit into the Armed Forces, in particular into the Regulars, and I agree entirely with his sentiments. I will write to him to flesh out the picture that we are now experiencing, which is on the whole positive as official statistics indicate that intake levels are showing a steady increase. The noble Baroness, Lady Dean, asked in particular about recruiting into the Reserves. We remain committed to reaching our target of 35,060 trained reservists by 2019 and we are moving fast in that direction. Central to that is an improved offer, including better training, equipment and remuneration along with an improved experience for reservists.

The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leeds and the noble Baroness, Lady Jolly, reminded us compellingly of the threat posed by Russia. Russia is seeking to re-establish itself as a great power. In doing so it has become more aggressive, authoritarian and nationalist, and its risk appetite to take action in pursuing its interests has increased, hence the decisions taken by NATO at the Cardiff and Warsaw summits. My noble friend Lord Jopling asked about our enhanced forward presence in Estonia. The UK will deploy an enhanced forward presence HQ commanded by a colonel and an armoured infantry battle group to Estonia from early next month on an enduring basis. The battle group advance party deployed on 19 March and the main body will deploy in early April. The UK will also deploy a light cavalry squadron to Poland, and that deployment too will be completed next month.

My noble friends Lord King and Lord Robathan and the noble Lords, Lord Ramsbotham and Lord Touhig, referred to the importance of cyber. In 2014, GCHQ dealt with 100 cyber national security incidents per month. In 2015 the figure had risen to 200 a month. Each of these attacks damages companies, their customers and the public’s trust in our collective ability to keep their data and privacy safe. The Government recognise that we must take steps to defend our national security in cyberspace as we do in any other domain. We have a substantial budget for this across government and, to co-ordinate properly this whole-nation effort, the Government created the Cyber and Government Security Directorate in the Cabinet Office, which runs the national cyber security programme. We have also announced the creation of a national cyber centre to provide a unified platform to handle cyber incidents.

I cannot do full justice to the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, to whom I listened with great respect, but I will write to him. He asked whether we will remain committed to the agreement with Iran. We do remain committed to the full implementation of the joint comprehensive plan of action, often known as the Iran nuclear deal. We will continue to work with the United States on ensuring its implementation. As regards the UK’s contribution to UN deployments, we are increasing our support for UN peacekeeping efforts and we will continue to do so. As the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, will know, we have current deployments in South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and Cyprus, where we have been patrolling the green line for 50 years.

The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig of Radley, spoke about combat immunity, and I thank him for his constructive comments and for his continued and long-standing interest in this matter. As he will be aware, we have said that we will be bringing forward our proposals on combat immunity shortly. We are considering the responses to the Government’s recently concluded consultation, which did not propose specific drafting terms for achieving a policy. He will understand that I cannot pre-empt the process or anticipate what the Queen’s Speech may say, but I can assure him that we share his desire to provide greater clarity on this matter.

My noble friend Lord Astor, in a powerful speech, mentioned Northern Ireland and the issue of investigations currently under way in relation to incidents that took place during the Troubles. There are many of his remarks with which I and the Government, and I am sure many others present on these Benches, would wish to associate themselves. Against that background I can understand his questioning the justice of pursuing criminal cases against members of the military over events that may have taken place more than 40 years ago. It is a matter that concerns the Ministry of Defence, as it concerns him, but I hope he will understand the limitations over what I can say in response to his comments about the specific case he raised of Corporal Major Dennis Hutchings. I understand that the local magistrate in Armagh has today decided not to commit on the charge of attempted murder, but he has committed Corporal Major Hutchings to be tried in the Crown Court on a charge of grievous bodily harm. The case is now before the court and is clearly subject to a process that is independent of the Ministry of Defence and indeed of the Government. That specific case aside, I accept absolutely what my noble friend said about the need for the whole issue of criminal inquiries into conduct during the Troubles to be balanced and that many perceive this currently not to be the case, a point also made by the noble Lord, Lord Empey. My right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Defence has previously undertaken to work with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to ensure that in any proposals he brings forward to deal with legacy matters, there is a fair, balanced and proportionate approach to investigating the past.

The noble Lord, Lord Burnett, asked me a number of questions. I am being reminded that I have overshot the expected time but with the leave of the House I will continue for another couple of minutes. He asked about Sergeant Blackman and what monitoring and assistance is given to a defendant charged with serious offences, such as those Sergeant Blackman faced, at the start of the process. Ensuring that those facing legal proceedings have the appropriate welfare and legal support is a responsibility that the MoD takes extremely seriously. A wide range of welfare support is available to both current and former personnel and these policies are kept under review. For suspects, legal funding for service personnel and veterans facing criminal allegations is provided through the Armed Forces Criminal Legal Aid Authority.

We understand that neither the prosecution nor Sergeant Blackman’s original defence team obtained psychiatric evidence before the start of his court martial, and that no psychiatric evidence was called during the trial itself. The defence did obtain a psychiatric assessment for the purposes of sentencing. In the recent CMAC judgment the court stated:

“If the expert evidence of the psychiatrists and other evidence set out fully at paragraphs 86 to 106 below had been before the court martial, we are in no doubt but that the defence of diminished responsibility would have had to have been left to the Board and that it could have affected their decision to convict”.


The Government have been successful in establishing, both in the European Court of Human Rights and in the civilian courts, that the court-martial system is in principle safe, independent and impartial. The current system of majority verdicts has been considered twice by the Court Martial Appeal Court in the last five years and was on both occasions held to be fair and safe. The Court Martial Appeal Court, which is made up of the same judges as sit in the civilian Court of Appeal, has held that there is no ground for deciding that a verdict by simple majority of the lay members of a court martial is inherently unfair or unsafe.

The rules regarding membership of the court martial focus on and recognise the importance of experience of command and the exercise of service discipline at a sufficiently high level to enable lay members to assess the actions of those who appear before them in the court martial in the appropriate command and disciplinary context. We have seen no evidence that a member of the panel allegedly sent a message to the effect that they had come under intense political pressure to convict. We respect the court’s latest judgment in relation to Sergeant Blackman, which found no basis to criticise the original court martial and indicated that the issues raised at the time were dealt with in an entirely fair and proper manner.

In closing, I thank noble Lords once again for taking part in today’s debate. The message conveyed by noble Lords will not be lost on the Government. As ever, it has been a valuable discussion around some of the most demanding challenges that face our nation today. I am struck by the fact that we all appear to agree on the reality and nature of those challenges. They are the same ones that the Government wrote about in the SDSR 2015. We believe that to meet these challenges we need to strengthen the bonds of co-operation that underpin the rules-based international order. I do not believe that any noble Lord would wish to divert us from that aim. We are doing more to lead and reform NATO; we are intensifying our collaboration with allies and partners in pursuit of our shared objectives; and we are integrating the levers of power across government, so that the UK is more effective in these endeavours. Through Joint Force 2025 we are making defence’s principal contribution to the levers of government —the Armed Forces—more capable, versatile and deployable than ever before. Those programmes, when put together, make a reality of the UK’s vision of being an outward-looking, global force for good, promoting stability, security and prosperity around the world. I beg to move.

HMS “Queen Elizabeth”

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Thursday 2nd March 2017

(7 years, 2 months ago)

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Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, I cannot give the noble Lord that precise assurance. I say that because we are clear—and I am sure that most noble Lords in this House are clear—that NATO must remain the cornerstone of this country’s defence and the defence of western Europe. It is very important that we remind ourselves of the significance of NATO in that context.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, the first thing to say is that we should be extremely proud of these carriers. They are going to be a force for stability and good all around the world. They are the only conventional capability we have with true strategic global significance, and that is why the Americans are so keen that we should have them. My question is similar to that of the noble Baroness. We last lost an aircraft carrier in 1942, and she did not have her air group with her. It is actually very difficult to find and kill an aircraft carrier, but she did not have an air group. When HMS “Queen Elizabeth” sails on her first operational deployment, particularly if it is east of Suez, will she have a full air group of Sea Lightnings, Crowsnest and the supporting ships—frigates, destroyers and nuclear submarine—which make a carrier battle group? The group I took to Hong Kong had 14 ships. Will we be able to do that, looking at the pressure on resources at the moment?

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, the initial operating capability for carrier strike, which is scheduled for no later than December 2020, will consist of one carrier, one squadron of Lightnings and Crowsnest. As the noble Lord will know, the carriers will operate as part of a maritime task group which will be tailored to meet the required task, so the precise number and mix of vessels deployed will have to depend on the operational circumstances of the time. We will be able to draw from a range of modern and highly capable vessels to support the carriers, such as the Type 45 destroyers, Type 23 frigates, Astute class submarines and, in the longer term, Type 26 frigates.

Defence: Industrial Strategy

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Monday 27th February 2017

(7 years, 3 months ago)

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Asked by
Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead
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To ask Her Majesty’s Government, in the light of their plans for a national shipbuilding strategy and significant investment in the United Kingdom defence nuclear enterprise, whether they intend to develop an overall defence industrial strategy.

Earl Howe Portrait The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)
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My Lords, the Ministry of Defence is actively involved in the cross-government work on an industrial strategy. Many of the themes in this apply to defence, and we do not plan a separate defence industrial strategy. A substantial amount of work is already under way to encourage the growth and competitiveness of UK industry, including as part of the commitment in the strategic defence and security review to refresh defence industrial policy.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, although I like the cut of the noble Earl’s jib, which is not surprising considering his naval pedigree, I am disappointed by the Answer. There is a complete absence of analysis of the defence industrial base and no proper study of its real costs. These were identified in the King’s College study instigated by the noble Lord, Lord Sterling, but nothing seems to have been done to focus on them. We know very well the value for this nation of things such as the agile supply cycle, but we also know their value in terms of jobs, through not having to pay welfare payments or unemployment benefit. There are all these benefits, yet we do a simple calculation of costs, which does not make sense. Does the Minister not agree that we have to look very closely at the real cost of equipment and weapons before we decide to buy from abroad, with a loss of jobs, a loss of agility and a loss of ability to keep running our systems here, and that we really must get the balance right rather than taking the simplistic approach of saying, “This costs £4 there and £5 here”?

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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I agree with the central thrust of the noble Lord’s proposition. As I said, many of the industrial strategy themes, particularly around removing barriers for UK companies to do business with government are well aligned with our refreshment of defence industrial policy. It is all about updating our terms of trade with industry to continue to deliver the best equipment for the Armed Forces at the best value for money, but in a way that supports UK industry to grow and compete successfully. That is the balance we are trying to strike.

NATO: Eastern Flank

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Monday 30th January 2017

(7 years, 3 months ago)

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Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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The noble and gallant Lord will know that there is a NATO operation currently in train in the Aegean in which the UK is playing a leading role. As to a wider involvement in the eastern Mediterranean, I will write to him if I can find out any more plans which can be disclosed. What I can say is that we are conscious of the need to defend NATO’s southern border as well as its eastern borders, and that is why we are deploying RAF aircraft for southern air policing later this year.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, it is quite clear that we are not spending enough on defence, but that is not my question. I am delighted that we are showing support for our eastern allies in NATO, but I am wary of military involvement within Ukraine. Does the noble Earl agree that we must keep open at all levels every line of communication we can with the Putin Administration so that any incident does not actually become something far more serious? We are dealing with someone where things could become very nasty indeed.

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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The noble Lord makes an extremely good series of points. NATO’s renewed focus on deterrence and defence is, we believe, a proportionate response by NATO allies to the changed security environment in eastern Europe as demonstrated by Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. However, that does not change our approach to bilateral relations with Russia. Despite the challenges I have referred to, we will continue to engage where necessary in areas of shared interest, and engage in dialogue as well through the channels we have available to us, such as the NATO-Russia Council.

Trident Missile Test

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Monday 23rd January 2017

(7 years, 4 months ago)

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Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, the most important assurance is the one that I have already given: this is a system in which we have absolute confidence. It has never been the practice of government to give Parliament details of submarine operations or of the systems and subsystems that are tested during a demonstration and shakedown operation. But I hope I have said enough to reassure noble Lords about our deterrent and its reliability.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, in naval parlance, this is a complete pot mess. A very successful DASO, which proved that “Vengeance” and her crew are well capable of being part of the CASD rotation, was carried out, but because of the way it was handled it has failed to reassure us all. I have spent my life fighting for Trident and I understand all the complexities and all the security issues. For 20 years, we have shot and sent out films of every single DASO and made an announcement about it. We did not do it this time, and consequently we are in a position where we have embarrassed our own Prime Minister—which is not very clever—and have given succour to those people who do not like the deterrent, do not understand why we need it and want to find some way of attacking it. That is what we have achieved. Does the Minister not agree that our failure to handle this openly has caused huge problems? It has given succour to those who do not like the deterrent, which our nation needs, and has embarrassed our Prime Minister. It has made a complete mess and was handled badly.

A159 Wildcat Helicopter

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Monday 9th January 2017

(7 years, 4 months ago)

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Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, I am sure the noble Lord will recognise that decisions on aircraft procurement, as indeed procurement across the defence piece, have to represent best value for the UK taxpayer. On the Wildcat issue, I think the noble Lord will accept that there is no requirement or pressing need for the Government to make a decision yet because no export orders have been received by Leonardo helicopters. However, we clearly have an interest in this. We are working with the company to ensure that UK work content is maintained, and I hope enhanced, for any export orders. The decision on whether to allow the jigs and tools to be relocated offshore will be based on a balanced assessment focused on what is best for UK prosperity.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, does the Minister believe there is a strategic requirement for our nation to have the ability to develop, design and build complex fast jets, and to do exactly the same for helicopters and warships, or is there no strategic requirement for this? Has this issue been considered by the National Security Council?

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, the Government are committed to keeping the UK as a leading aerospace nation. We are fully engaged with Leonardo on future helicopter work in that region. For example, we have signed a 10-year strategic partnership agreement with Leonardo, which of course is key to maintaining cost effectiveness, driving exports and innovation. The Aerospace Growth Partnership, which is being managed by my colleagues in BEIS, will undoubtedly be of benefit in the long term to the UK aerospace industry.

Brexit: Armed Forces and Diplomatic Service

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Thursday 8th December 2016

(7 years, 5 months ago)

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Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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My Lords, we will all have seen the Prime Minister aboard HMS “Ocean” earlier this week in Bahrain. Did she know, as she spoke to the assembled ship’s company about the Navy and the importance of its global role post-Brexit, that that ship will be paid off in 2018, after a recent £65 million refit, with nothing to replace her? It is yet another cut to our perilously reduced fleet.

We inhabit a dangerous world in which illiberal power is growing and liberal power declining. It is a world made dangerous by Europe’s retreat from power and its wilful refusal to invest in power. The Brexit decision compounds the problems relating to the UK’s defence and security. The dramatic rise in numbers of migrants either fleeing war and persecution or economic hardship is a stark reflection of all these pressures. In addition, we cannot be sure how much longer the United States will remain the ultimate guarantor of a rules-based international system. Russia is a particular concern, after events in the Crimea and Ukraine, cyberattacks across Europe and threats to the Baltic states. What is it doing? President Putin is a revisionist. He believes in areas of control and he understands and respects power.

In this highly dangerous world, we also have responsibilities for our 14 dependencies and for global shipping run from London. Post-Brexit, we will have to enforce our sea borders and exclusive economic zone much more fully than in the past. We have five Border Force vessels for about 8,000 miles of coastline. To give an example, the Netherlands has 16 for 280 miles of coastline. Perhaps we have got it wrong.

Faced with these global challenges, what are the Government doing? SDSR 2010 cut our military capability by 30%, as has been mentioned, and it has not recovered from that. It is no use pretending otherwise. There is not enough money in the defence budget. In particular, the Navy has too few ships and men, and is having to make incoherent cuts to keep within its budget; for example, paying off “Diligence” and “Ocean” and not having any surface-to-surface missiles. Far from increasing in numbers, as was stated by both the Prime Minister and the Defence Secretary in 2015—they said it would increase in numbers by 2035—the Navy is actually shrinking. I fear the Royal Navy is not capable of doing what our nation expects it to do.

We have only 19 escorts, which is a national disgrace, as I have said before. Two of these are tied up alongside because of lack of manpower due to the cuts made by the coalition in 2010. Of the 17 remaining ships, five destroyers have major intercooler problems and there is no rapid programme fixed for exactly when they will be repaired. The reality is that we have 12 escorts fully capable of operations, of which at least one will be in major repair. These 12 are Type 23 frigates. The oldest is 25 years old and the youngest 14; the ships were designed for an 18-year life. The Ministry of Defence has yet to explain how it will replace these ships, which are due to leave service at the rate of one per year from 2023 onwards, let alone increase the total number of escorts by the 2030s, which the noble Earl kindly confirmed is the Government’s aim.

Our forces are underfunded. There is no new money—it is, in theory, being produced by efficiencies. These efficiencies are impacting on the lives of our sailors, soldiers and airmen. I was given a recent example of an Army football team which could not go to a match because there was no bus because of the efficiency measures. This is unacceptable for a nation such as ours.

The Royal Navy has ensured the survival and wealth of our nation over several hundred years. We need to wake up to the fact that successive cuts have gone too far. No matter how stalwart the people—and, my goodness me, they are stalwart—or their professionalism, and we have the most professional forces in the world, without sufficient ships, it is as nothing. We are taking risk upon risk and suddenly, quite unexpectedly—because that is what happens in this chaotic and nasty world—it may affect our nation’s survival.

--- Later in debate ---
Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon Portrait Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon (LD)
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My Lords, it is a privilege and a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Robertson. I look back with great affection and gratitude at the work that we did together and the way he helped me when he was Secretary-General of NATO and I was the high representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

One thing seems crystal clear: having taken the decision to Brexit, Britain is now much more alone and our defence choices are far starker than they were in the hours before President Trump was elected one month and one week ago. Before, during the Brexit debate, we argued that we did not need the European Union because we had NATO, but we will now have an isolationist American President who has made it perfectly clear in his speeches that he does not much believe in NATO and would not even mind seeing it unstitched.

I have a suspicion that in the next few weeks words will be dragged out of Mr Trump’s mouth, saying he did not really mean that and that he does believe in NATO, but NATO and alliances do not depend as much on words as they do on will. No one can doubt that the will of an isolationist American President who admires President Putin will not be the same as the will we have experienced before from our partners across the Atlantic by any measure. The reliance we have placed on NATO in its present form has to be weaker than it was before.

We are left with two very stark choices: either we find a means to work with our European partners to integrate as far as we can; alternatively we will have to be more dependent on the United States, led by a President in favour of isolationism. The effect of his election, and that decision, and the effect of Brexit, taken to improve our independence, has, on the contrary, made us more dependent on the United States. Is that what we really want? Do we believe that that is right?

There is a way round this, of course. The Government can declare that while we will follow through with the Brexit decision and withdraw from political and economic co-operation in Europe, we will nevertheless deepen our integration on defence. If the Minister says that, I will feel comforted, but I do not believe for a moment that that is a spirit of the Government or that they will say that. In that case, we will be increasingly dependent on America led by an isolationist President, whose relationship with Britain might well be judged from the fact that he now believes he can appoint our ambassador in Washington. That does not seem to be any other than a relationship that in its end will turn out to be one of subservience, if not something worse, for our country. I do not believe that that is the right way to go, and I do not believe anyone else can either.

Let me widen the debate a little to a second issue which now confronts us, which depends on us having friends and contacts. Here is a little bit of history. When the Wright brothers turned up in London and sought to sell to the Admiralty their new invention—the design for their aeroplane—the Admiralty was somewhat shocked and perplexed and had an inquiry The inquiry went on far too long—it took two years—and on 7 March 1907, the First Lord of the Admiralty wrote to the Wright brothers, saying,

“I have consulted my expert advisers with regard to your suggestion as to the employment of aeroplanes, and I regret to have to tell you, after the careful consideration of my Board, that the Admiralty … are of the opinion that they would not be of any practical use to the Naval Service”.

That was a mistake and we soon recognised it. But we then made a second mistake, which was that we believed that these were add-ons that we could put on to the Army and the Navy.

Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon Portrait Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon
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The time is limited. I know that the noble Lord wants to defend the Admiralty.

We discovered during the Second World War that they were not add-ons but an entire new theatre of war—not only a theatre of war but the vital ground in winning a war. In the first 3,000 years, the winner was who won on the land; for the next 100 years from Trafalgar, the winner was who won on the sea; since Guernica to the present day, who wins in the air wins the war. Now I believe that he who wins in cyberspace wins.

We have to recognise that this is not just an add-on; it is not just a gadget. We have to recognise it as the new theatre of war. Unless we do, dedicate a service to that and commit resources to it we will not be able to succeed where we need to in any future conflict. Unless we look at it in that synoptic fashion, in that same way that we understood about air, then I fear that if our Armed Forces are weak in that arm, however strong they are in all other arms, we will find ourselves crucially weakened. The whole point about winning in cyberspace is that we have to have a policy that crosses borders, links up with others, and which cannot be conducted in isolation because our enemy is now inside the gates as well as outside. That means that if you deliberately remove yourself from a framework for active co-operation with your neighbours and with those who share your interests, you are bound to diminish and weaken your own nation’s defence. The consequence of Brexit, by removing that possibility with our European partners, and with a NATO now weakened by an isolationist US President, cannot other than mean that the long-term defence of this country will be weakened. The measure of the modern age is that what you do is less important than what you can do with others, and we have just deliberately decided that what we can do with others is less than it was previously—and for that I fear we shall pay a very heavy price.

Royal Navy: Frigates

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts
Thursday 8th December 2016

(7 years, 5 months ago)

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Asked by
Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead
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To ask Her Majesty’s Government, in the light of the publication of the National Shipbuilding Strategy, when they intend to replace the Type 23 Frigates.

Earl Howe Portrait The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)
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My Lords, eight Type 26 global combat ships will be built to replace the current eight anti-submarine warfare Type 23 frigates on a one-for-one basis. The build schedule for the Type 26 is being addressed as part of ongoing contractual negotiations. As announced in the SDSR, the general purpose Type 23 frigates will be replaced by a new class of lighter, flexible, exportable general purpose frigates. This project is in its pre-concept phase.

Lord West of Spithead Portrait Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
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I thank the noble Earl for his Answer. He has told me on the Floor of this House on at least two occasions that a report on shipbuilding would come out this autumn which would lay down a steady drum beat of orders. Sir John Parker’s report has no financial basis—there is no detail there of a drum beat of orders—and now, as I understand it, the shipbuilding report will come out next spring. I know from my time in government that spring can be as late as July. Is it still our Government’s intention to increase frigate numbers by the 2030s, which is not far away in shipbuilding terms, and how will they achieve that with regard to these general purpose frigates? How quickly will they need to be built to achieve that figure?

Earl Howe Portrait Earl Howe
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My Lords, yes, it is the Government’s intention to increase the size of the fleet through the general purpose frigate. We are talking now in the long term, but that is our intention. As the noble Lord is aware, we published Sir John Parker’s report on 29 November. It contains 34 detailed recommendations, and it is not unreasonable that the Government should take a little while to give those recommendations due thought. Some of them are pretty adventurous, but all of them are designed to ensure that we can in the long term deliver growth to the fleet, which we all want.