Libya

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Monday 19th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We have already advised on the benefits of a democracy that allows full rights for voting for the Tuaregs and all Libyans; and we will continue to do so. As to the particular issue of Article 3, I cannot tell my noble friend whether we have raised that specific matter in dialogue with the Libyan Government, but I will seek to ensure that Article 3 is raised if it has not been already.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, I supported the action in Libya. It was the right thing to do. However, further to my noble friend Lord Judd’s Question, is there not an irresistible logic that if you go into countries—I am not saying Libya per se, but any country—to change a despotic regime that is massacring and killing its citizens, and I understand all the imperatives of that, if the regime that takes its place starts doing the same, we have to go back in again. Would the Minister agree that that is the case?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We are at the same point as we were a moment ago: it is different in different countries. I agree that certain responsibilities are required. If the outside world decides to intervene, whether for humanitarian reasons to prevent a massacre or because there is open, recognised and legally agreed international pressure to change a regime, those who intervene must have some responsibility for the regimes that follow. These are agonising decisions, which are different in every case. They are currently very prominent in Syria, where we see hideous atrocities unfolding. The question of how those who care for human life and want to uphold civilisation should best intervene is very difficult, as I know the noble Lord fully understands from his previous responsibilities.

Algeria

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Thursday 2nd February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

No, I do not think it does because the big export from Algeria to us is liquid natural gas. Algeria is a major exporter to Europe of LNG. It is developing that capacity vigorously. There are further huge areas to be licensed, explored and developed in Algeria and we hope that British firms will have a major involvement in that as the licensing system unfolds and improves. I do not think that my noble friend’s figures fully reflect the fact that I have just pointed out to him, that for our daily energy and for keeping the lights on we need good supplies of liquid natural gas as well as the natural gas that we get from the North Sea, Norway and other places.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, the Minister has clearly articulated the fact that AQ of the Maghreb are now concentrated in the south. Have we had success in convincing European nations that the paying of ransoms has been one of the reasons for AQIM increasing its power and that we really must not do that?

Iran

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 24th January 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We clearly hope so. That is the aim of the policy. At the moment it does not look like that. It may be in the next few days that, as has happened in the more distant past, the Iranian authorities will come forward and say, “Yes, let’s return to the negotiating table”. They may add all sorts of impossible conditions and qualifications that make that difficult, or they may see sense and, in the interests of the Iranian people—with whom we have certainly have no quarrel; I should have made that clear in answer to the noble Lord, Lord Kerr—they will begin discussions in a sensible, calm way on how we prevent the whole nuclear proliferation pattern running away into a horror story in the future for the Middle East.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, there is a very detailed calculation going on at the moment in the United States and elsewhere about the difference between the very bad impact of Iran having nuclear weapons, and about proliferation and so on, the impact of attacks on her nuclear system and what it is believed will be the short-term effects of these. Does the Minister agree that that is a very dangerous calculation, because the one absolute certainty is that when you embark on war, you have no idea where that will lead?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Lord is absolutely right. As Prince Turki, who we have already mentioned, said the other day, wars lead to more wars. Once we were in a pattern of violence and conflict—which might be reached by accident, which is a very terrifying prospect—there is no telling where the consequences would go. I think Prince Turki said that one consequence would be retaliation not just against the western powers but the entire Gulf state community and indeed all those who were deemed to have had any association with those who had done the attacking. Who knows where the consequences would lead? What we do know is that if we get to the point of violence, this policy will have failed and a new one will be required. That is something we are determined to avoid.

Falkland Islands

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 24th January 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We have had discussions with Chile of a thoroughly positive nature. It is one of the countries that has agreed to accept ships flying the British Red Ensign. I cannot comment on the ownership of some of these ships. I have seen rumours in the media but I have no further information on that matter.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, while jaw-jaw is better than war-war, as Churchill said—the great man died 47 years ago today—there is no doubt that the world is extremely dangerous. We have seen the events of the Arab spring and in Libya and tensions in the Falklands. Will the Government look at their reduction in defence spending bearing in mind these very serious risks?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The question of our capability and abilities to meet the world’s tensions are under constant review. Some of these involve military and others soft power deployments. However, the noble Lord is absolutely right that dangers are springing up. Later this afternoon this House will have to deal with another one that he did not mention—that is, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Cyprus: EU Presidency

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 20th December 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

First, I warmly endorse the noble Lord’s wishes for the happy birthday of my noble and learned friend Lord Howe of Aberavon. I think I can speak on behalf of Her Majesty's Government in presenting those congratulations to him on his 86th birthday. That is terrific.

As to the broader points made by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, he himself has played a significant part in trying to get the parties to take a more reasonable attitude to each other. He is right: the compromise that will emerge from the end of Cyprus’s tribulations can be achieved only if there is a more giving and revised attitude on both sides. Very hard lines have been taken up. There has to be compromise, there has to be movement, there has to be some revision of views between the two sides. Then we will make progress. What the noble Lord says must be right, and we have to work for it.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, can the Minister confirm that there is no intention to change the status of the sovereign base areas in Cyprus or the military facilities there?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I can confirm that. As the noble Lord knows, there was a recent review of the sovereign bases. A Statement was made to Parliament indicating that the review has been completed. It has not been fully published, but its broad conclusions are established, which are that the bases are vital and will certainly continue. There was, of course, already the view that in the event of a settlement and the unity of Cyprus, 50 per cent of the sovereign base area would be part of the settlement and would be available to help it. Generally, the commitment is as firm as it has always been that the sovereign bases are important and will remain.

Pakistan

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Thursday 1st December 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

No, I do not think it would be right to seek postponement of the Bonn meeting which is coming up, and we urge Pakistan to join. I know that in its dismay at this whole event it has thought about not joining, and in a sense that is understandable. But one looks for second thoughts and hopes that Pakistan will join the meeting. It is not a meeting organised by or about NATO, it is about the whole future of Afghanistan. Pakistani involvement would be valuable and we strongly encourage it. We stick to the timetable that has been planned.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, while I was Minister for Security for three years, the country of gravest concern to me globally was Pakistan. Notwithstanding the huge efforts, huge sacrifices and so forth that have been made in Pakistan, does the Minister not agree that one of the greatest risks to that country is violent, extremist terrorism within and around its borders and not threats from India? The fact that India is being looked at by some people within the ISI and the army as the greatest threat has diverted its efforts.

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Lord makes an extremely good point. Pakistan has many problems but very high on the list are the terrorist threat and its borders with Afghanistan, as we all know. As to relations with India, we notice that India and Pakistan have recently been talking. We greatly welcome and encourage their dialogue, which we hope will lead to a less tense development on that side and therefore less distraction from the main aims that the noble Lord has rightly identified.

Iran

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I hope that I can give as good an answer as the noble Lord did when I asked him the question. It might be even better. We are going to press for further sanctions but one has to be realistic, as I indicated in answering the noble Lord, Lord Luce. If the sanctions are undermined by trading activity and the import of products from China and other countries then they are bound to be limited in effect. However, we believe that sanctions of a financial kind can be tightened still further to make it ever harder for the mullahs and the Iranian Government to get the revenues for some of their oil and oil products. We also believe that more targeted sanctions can be developed and various loopholes can be closed. All these things can be done and probably will be done. However, the bigger issue is how the world unites as a whole to put pressure on the regime to cease to flout the non-proliferation regime and the rulings and the resolutions—six of them—of the UN Security Council.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, the elephant in the room seems to be the use of military force, as has been mentioned, though I quite understand why that has been left on the table. However, does the Minister agree that if you make a threat you have to have the willingness to carry it out? It seems to me that we are sleepwalking towards a situation where we may well find ourselves as a nation involved in military action the full implications of which we have not thought through. Does the Minister believe that that is a real risk?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The risks are there on all sides. The noble Lord says that we have not thought through the implications but one can think them through all too clearly. One has only to speculate for a moment on what would happen if Iran were to mine or threaten to mine the Straits of Hormuz: it would double the oil price straightaway. That is a major danger and there are many others as well. The implications have been thought through. As the noble Lord recognises, however, the message from Iran is that all options remain on the table. Meanwhile we concentrate on negotiations and ever tighter sanctions and we hope to achieve an effective outcome. However, the reality must be presented to Iran: the options, of all kinds, are on the table.

Gibraltar

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 14th June 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I would not for a moment dare to disagree with such a distinguished former Governor of Gibraltar. We seek from the Spanish authorities, who are our friends and allies in many parts of the world, an understanding that these matters can be handled by the trilateral forum of dialogue process and that these incursions—this one has a higher profile because it involved the Spanish navy, whereas normally it is the Spanish Guardia Civil which causes these incursions—add nothing to the hopes for resolution. Every time this occurs, we respond with the utmost urgency and the strongest protest that this is not the way forward.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, I was commander-in-chief when the Royal Marines inadvertently invaded Spain, so I am aware of how complex the waters are around Gibraltar. The Gibraltar Squadron has been reduced to the absolute minimum to do the task that is asked of it. Will the Minister confirm that there will be no further reductions in the size and capability of that squadron?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

First, I note, along with your Lordships, that once again your Lordships’ House proves that it has massive expertise in every subject. We keep the naval response constantly under review. We will ensure that we have the means for an appropriate response, balanced with a diplomatic assessment of the situation, and we will make sure that that continues. There will be no question but that these incursions—if they have to continue, and I hope that they do not—will be responded to with the utmost speed both by the Royal Navy and by diplomatic means.

Libya

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Friday 1st April 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, I, too, thank the Minister for this opportunity for the debate and for his exposition of where we stand. It is clear that a large number of British people feel that we should not be involved in Libya. That is hardly surprising when one looks back and sees that, on balance, there is a general consensus that the invasion of Iraq was wrong. When one saw what was in Afghanistan by way of terrorist training camps, one felt that the initial invasion was correct, but I believe that the expansion of that role into Helmand was a mistake, which we have lived to regret. This has cost the nation a great deal in blood and treasure. Despite those experiences, I have to say that I very reluctantly accept that our involvement in Libya—the no-fly zone—was the right thing to do. I do not intend to rehearse all the arguments, but I have no doubt that it stopped effectively mass killings in Benghazi and it had a strong UN resolution.

There are a huge number of dangers now. I shall run through some of the things where I believe that risks exist. On civilian casualties, our people have done really well in terms of not causing any. I was very much involved in the targeting process when I was Chief of Defence Intelligence and I know the effort and care that is taken in that respect. However, we would be deluding ourselves if we believed that there would be no civilian casualties, particularly as the situation progresses. It will happen. It would be a nonsense to pretend that there will not be any. Indeed, there may have been one or two already of which we are not aware. That is just a fact of life. We need to harden our hearts to that and to make sure that we expose the fact that there is no moral equivalence between what we are doing and what Gaddafi is doing. Of course, if those things mount, there will be huge pressure from the Arab states and others, as well as a break-up of the coalition.

It is super that NATO has taken over and lovely that the coalition is getting bigger—we should expand it. But it is interesting that most of the fast jets going in are air-to-air, and there has been no air-to-air combat. We need ground-attack aircraft. Only the core players are doing ground attack. That is something that we should address.

There is a real danger of stalemate, which could lead to a division within the country and civil war. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, eloquently explained the military capability of the rebels. In my sailor’s language, I would say that in military terms the rebels are basically a rabble. They have got a long way to go to be able to do anything militarily. But arming them is extremely dangerous. For example, if rebel forces are fighting Gaddafi’s forces and no civilians are there, what exactly is the position for the NATO commander in terms of hitting forces? He is not protecting civilian forces. What should he do? The UN resolution does not cover that. What if the rebel forces in a town inadvertently kill some civilians? What does the NATO commando do about that? These are real difficulties which have to be confronted.

Who exactly are the rebels? I hope that the Government are clear on who they are because I am not clear at all. Clearly, the composition of Libya after this is up to the Libyans. It is nothing to do with us. But we need to think carefully about arming the rebels. I have not seen anything clear about where that is going. Mission creep from the UN resolution to regime change is dangerous. We need to go back to the UN and ask whether it wants regime change. I have heard a lot of what has been said about that. Clearly, all of us would like Gaddafi to go. He is a murderous, deranged thug and we would love to have him out of the way, but the legality of doing that is difficult. Similarly, we would have to go back to the UN to talk about the legality of arming the rebels. In addition, there is the danger of pressure to use land forces. Air power is not decisive, as was shown in Kosovo; it took the threat of invasion in Kosovo to change the game. We need to be aware of pressures for that.

I am sure that we have learnt many lessons. I shall pick one. I believe that the Government have to run the rule over the SDSR. For example, notwithstanding many attempts to show otherwise, there is no doubt that a carrier and air group would have been invaluable at all stages of this operation, particularly early on. On that point, I should like to wish the Royal Air Force a happy birthday, as it was formed 93 years ago today. The Royal Navy gave 2,500 aircraft and 55,000 men to help to form the new RAF. Is it not interesting that today the SDSR has got rid of all of our maritime fixed-wing aircraft? “Invincible” is being towed past Libya for scrap and “Ark Royal” is on eBay for sale. That is something that we need to ponder.

We should have real concern about all these changes. The Minister touched on this. I believe that al-Qaeda has been caught out by what has happened. There are opportunities for us. We should do some detailed risk analysis work. The impact of events from Algeria to Oman and the issues within Bahrain and Yemen et cetera are very real. I believe that blithely to ignore these real-world events in terms of the SDSR would be worthy of today’s date. We need to do something about it.

What next? We need to keep hitting Gaddafi’s forces when he is killing civilians, for example, in Misrata. There is no doubt about that whatever. As many speakers have said, we need to use every lever, because we need to do this politically. One hopes that Moussa Koussa is the first of many people who will come over, although we cannot necessarily bank on it. We need pressure on assets. We need to tighten up the arms and wider embargoes. We need to use the contact group to the maximum extent and to redouble our aid efforts, but we really need to ensure that the truth of what we are doing gets out to the wider Muslim world. This is very important. We have seen before how there can be radicalisation if that does not happen. There is no moral equivalence between what Gaddafi is doing—abusing human rights and killing and torturing his own people—and our careful, measured response. That message needs to get out. The World Service is good at that. We need to make sure that we get the message out wherever we possibly can, because it is very important.

We all hope otherwise but, notwithstanding the latest defection and the prospect that there may be others, this may be a long haul. As a number of speakers have said, this will not end until Gaddafi goes, although we have no legal cover for regime change. We have to be absolutely resolute in opposing mission creep or the breaking of any of the UN resolutions. If there were any move towards the use of land forces, I believe that we should immediately leave the coalition.

Yemen

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Tuesday 29th March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The danger is quite high. There is a danger of all kinds of elements, including the al-Qaeda franchise, other jihadists and the rebel groups that have been present for many years—there is nothing new in some of the matters that we are discussing—taking over and replacing the present unsatisfactory pattern with something equally unsatisfactory. We have to be realistic about this. All the progress throughout the Arab world will not automatically lead to a new dawn of liberal democracy, much as we hope it will.

[Lord West of Spithead]

My Lords, have the Government assessed whether al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula within Yemen and al-Qaeda more widely have been caught out by this huge change across what I think Glubb Pasha called the “hinge of the world” from Tunisia through to Oman? It seems to me that they might have been and that, if we are quick on our feet, there is a real opportunity to use this to our advantage. I should be interested to hear the Minister’s thoughts on that.

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

When the situation is so fluid, it is very difficult to make these assessments, and I suspect that they vary vastly from country to country. We are talking here about the Yemen. Al-Qaeda is not the only threat to Yemen’s present stability; all kinds of different tribal gatherings and pressures are undermining the situation. It could be that al-Qaeda has not been at the forefront of many of these uprisings, protests and rebellions. On the other hand, we must have no illusions but that, where it sees trouble, it will seize every opportunity to intensify it and make it worse. As to our opportunity in this area, we have to move in a very agile and clever way, making sure that we combine the support of the western world and the whole comity of responsible nations in trying to encourage a sensible transition to democracy and a move away from all forms of extremism.