Ukraine

Lord West of Spithead Excerpts

Friday 31st October 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords, it is inevitable that many speakers today will be covering the same ground, but I do not think that is important because the full impact of the war in Ukraine should be aired in this Chamber. I am delighted that this has been an opportunity to do that.

Putin’s “special operation” in Ukraine went wrong from the beginning. Five Eyes intelligence identified that it was about to happen, in great detail, and, very unusually, we actually promulgated that fact. That was quite a blow to Putin and his team. We know from our own intelligence what an impact it had. Of course, the Ukrainians resisted, and we saw the breathtaking incompetence of the Russian military. I have to say that, after many years watching Army intelligence try to work out what real threat the Russian army was, one did have to wonder slightly when it did so badly in that invasion. But all that is history.

The invasion of a nation state that Putin had categorically admitted was such—he had recognised that it was a nation state—showed him for what he had become. It is clear from his statements and writings that he believes Russia should have the same borders as the old Soviet Union, controlling vassal states within those borders. He went as far as to claim that Ukraine posed an existential threat to Russia.

The war has now been going on for three and a half years, as many speakers have mentioned. All of us, I think, reinforce what my noble friend the Minister and others have said: we must all admire the bravery, steadfastness and sacrifice of the Ukrainian people. What they have been through is quite incredible—there is nothing like having people shooting at you and having people around you dying to make you realise how appalling that can be. When it is civilians, it is incredibly impressive.

There is no doubt that our front line, as has been mentioned before, is in Ukraine, because already there is a grey zone war with Putin, which I will come back to. If Putin is successful in forcing Ukraine into defeat and surrender, he will be emboldened and will invade his next victim, be it Transnistria, South Ossetia, Moldova or maybe even the Kaliningrad corridor. We really have to stop him now.

There is no doubt that the Russian military is more competent than it was in the early days. It is doing better on the front line than it was in those days, and its drone attacks are putting Ukrainian forces under immense pressure. A number of speakers have talked about the huge pressure on Ukraine, which is extremely worrying. However, the Russians are suffering massive casualties, and there is no doubt that it is western support—weapons and other support—that allows Ukraine to continue to fight.

The Russian economy is weathering the storm better than we predicted, not least because of the huge Chinese financial and other support. Russia has also been helped by countries such as India—much to my surprise, given that we have done a lot to help India—and Iran, and by troops from North Korea. Putin told Xi Jinping about his “special operation” before he launched it, saying that it would be over in three weeks. This has fully confirmed the Chinese view of the unpredictable risk of wars, and China is very unimpressed by how it has gone. At present, the support of Putin suits Xi, as he wishes the established world order to be toppled, as was mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson. But he has no love for Putin, and I think Putin needs to look carefully, because he is supping with the devil in dealing so closely with him.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit held in Tianjin should be a wake-up call for the US and for us. I found it quite horrifying that that was happening. Basically, it is showing that it wants to dismantle and change the world order that we established, with the Americans, at the end of the Second World War, which has given huge security to the globe and increased the wealth of many parts of the world. This meeting really showed that. The fact that this world order is under threat stems from the Ukraine war and is very worrying. It all adds up to the importance of thwarting Putin in Ukraine.

Our primary object must be to keep Ukraine in the war until the damage to Putin, financially and militarily, makes him recognise that he must reach a peace accord. What exactly that comprises, how it is implemented and the European involvement is downstream work to that primary purpose. What is needed now is commitment to major arms supplies and long-range, in-depth weapons, the imposition of secondary sanctions, which will make China and India stop giving their support, and the use of the frozen assets in Belgium to purchase Ukrainian arms and help reconstruction.

The important message to Putin will be delivered through NATO increasing defence spending. Putin is a dangerous maverick. It is extraordinary that he is already conducting a war in the grey zone. There have been two WMD attacks in Britain. His lackeys are constantly attacking our cyber networks. They are conducting online work to destabilise our society. He has facilitated kinetic attacks on our CNI. He is threatening to carry out attacks on our underwater cables. He is regularly penetrating NATO airspace. We must succeed in thwarting Putin’s illegal and appalling attack on Ukraine, or events could gain a momentum of their own, leading, I believe, to a major world war.