Israel and Palestine

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, according to the polls, most people in Israel and Palestinian territories strongly believe that a peaceful two-state solution is highly desirable and, although expectations are very low, there may be one or two reasons to be slightly less pessimistic. First, talks are going on in secrecy and so far there have been no significant leaks, so that gives no one an opportunity to start sniping. Secondly, expectations are very low so no one will be too surprised at failure. Thirdly, the Arab League seems keen to see some resolution to the terrible impasse that has bedevilled Middle East politics for so long. Fourthly, Hamas might be in a less strong position to undermine any peace deal as they have been significantly weakened by the recent actions by the Egyptians to block their arms-smuggling tunnels.

However, there are very many problems, of which I shall mention just a few: Israel is distracted by the greater danger to its survival from Iran and Syria and may not be giving these negotiations their full priority. It is also painfully aware that its experience of withdrawal from Gaza was not a complete success. Its demands for security on its eastern border with a new Palestine will be very tough—they may indeed be too hard for the Palestinians to swallow. Withdrawal from the settlements and re-housing of huge numbers of settlers will not be a trivial task. Optimism in Israel is not running high.

On the Palestinian side, they are in an even more difficult position. The population desperately needs peace and a land of its own, but the leadership has not always shown willingness to accept a Jewish state. Its rhetoric in the state media has been all about a return to the whole of the land occupied by Israel as well as the West Bank. Perhaps significantly, it cannot be unaware of the impact that a peace deal with Israel would have on its relations with its Arab neighbours to the north. All those regard Israel as the sworn enemy that they seek to remove from the map of the Middle East. Mahmoud Abbas must know how dangerous a peace deal would be to him personally as he remembers the assassination of Sadat when Egypt signed a peace deal with Israel. Hamas is unlikely to make life comfortable for him even in its weakened state.

Against this pessimistic background, what might the UK usefully do in support of a two-state solution? We are of course very limited, but there are some things that are worth our effort. First, we should exert what influence we can on the Arab League to support Abbas and convince him that it will stand by him if he strikes a deal—here, I echo the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup. Abbas desperately needs that support, and we have some influence with those countries.

Secondly, we should encourage the USA to keep at it despite its Syrian and Iranian distractions, and make sure that it impresses on the Israelis how important it feels it is that they should do a deal now. It should explain that America’s interest in the Middle East may not be so strong in the future as it becomes less dependent on its oil. The opportunity for American support for Israel may not last all that long. Meanwhile, we should refrain from levelling unhelpful criticism at either side while they are in this tricky phase of discussion. We need to think carefully about whether the criticism will help or hinder the discussions.

These negotiations give little room for optimism, but the fact that they are going on at all is vastly better than a continuing stand-off. Meanwhile, we should use what limited resources we have to help both sides.