Lord Stirrup
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of prospects for progress towards an agreement between Israel and Palestine on a two-state solution.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, before we start, two speakers have scratched. This would allow us to stretch to four minutes for the other speakers, if that huge addition to the length of their speeches might please noble Lords.
Lord Stirrup (CB)
My Lords, I am most grateful for this opportunity to discuss the current status of the Middle East peace process, and I am particularly grateful that so many eminent and knowledgeable noble Lords will be lending their expertise to the subject over the next hour.
An hour is of course far too short a time in which to do justice to the importance and complexity of the issues involved. Nor would I expect the Minister to disclose the detailed nature and status of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, even if the UK was aware of them, which I rather doubt. We must trust that the US Secretary of State and his team will do their utmost to secure a successful outcome, recognising that we have little direct influence on the process.
However, if that is so, then what purpose might we set ourselves in this debate here today? We could, of course, remind ourselves of the many difficulties involved: the delineation of boundaries, the settlements, the status of Jerusalem, the right of return and so on. For my part, however, I will focus on three issues where I think we could and should go beyond just enthusiastic support for Secretary Kerry, where UK intellectual effort, advocacy and, in some cases, practical involvement might add value to the whole endeavour.
The first of these issues concerns the fundamental proposition that there should be a two-state solution. This has been questioned in the past, and there continue to be voices, perhaps increasing in number, arguing against it. The Foreign Secretary has himself suggested that time may be running out for a two-state solution. That must of course raise the question of what happens if time does indeed run out: what comes next? Some suggest that the time for such a solution is in fact long past—that some sort of single-state solution is the only realistic way forward. Many of these voices, although by no means all, are in Israel. But is it conceivable that an Israeli state that incorporated the present Occupied Territories could remain both Jewish and democratic?
If the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their previous homes is a device to undermine the state of Israel through demographics, as some would argue, then surely a one-state solution would achieve the same end, perhaps even more decisively. The UK Government remain committed to a negotiated two-state solution. This leads me to two conclusions. The first is that the UK needs to engage intellectually with those who argue against such a proposition. We should add our voices to a continuing international effort in this regard, rather than just assuming that the argument has been won for good and all. The second is that we need to do all we can to ensure that the window for a two-state solution remains open for as long as is necessary. While of course we want to engender a sense of urgency, we should be careful about suggesting the existence of cliff edges—or closed windows, if you prefer—lest we paint ourselves into an intellectual corner.
We all hope that something substantive emerges from the current negotiations, but long years of weary experience counsel us to rein in our expectations. In situations such as this, one has to combine long-term optimism with a grimly realistic short-term outlook. However, if the UK view is truly that the window for a two-state solution will soon close, then long-term optimism becomes Panglossian, and we should therefore be thinking now about alternatives, unpalatable though they might be. Is this truly the ground on which we wish to stand? I rather doubt it, and I certainly doubt the wisdom of even hinting at such a thing. The lessons of history suggest that, in cases such as this, one must never give up, never despair, no matter how dark the road might become.
The UK’s position, and therefore its message to others, should surely be that no matter how long it takes, no matter the setbacks, the international community must and will keep coming back to the issue, will keep bringing the parties back together, and will keep banging their heads against the brick wall until the wall one day starts to crumble.
The second issue that I want to raise concerns an important precondition for any enduring agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. In political negotiations such as these, it is not sufficient for the leaders to agree upon the terms of a solution. They have to be able to carry with them sufficient of their constituents to enable them to turn any agreement into political reality on the ground. They will never convince everyone, but they need sufficient popular support to sustain them through what will no doubt be difficult and controversial times.
Much of this task will of course fall to the politicians on either side, but I suspect that they will need all the help they can get. So we should think hard about which international actors could wield the kind of influence necessary to condition the debates within both Israel and Palestine. The United States certainly has a role to play here. However, it no longer, I suggest, has quite the economic and moral strength that in old days might have helped it move heaven and earth. The UK is certainly no better placed in terms of direct influence; but perhaps our influence with third parties might be of some use in such an endeavour.
The contribution of the Arab League nations, even when somewhat divided, was an important factor in the recent resumption of talks. They and other countries in the region will continue to be important in the development, and particularly in the acceptance, of any solution. We have many friends among these countries with whom we might constructively engage over the coming months, in support of both the peace process itself and the means by which any agreement might be implemented.
With regard to the Israelis, I regret that we have even less direct influence than with the Palestinians. We seem to have allowed relations between our two countries to enter a sort of limbo. Indeed, it took me most of my tenure as Chief of the Defence Staff to persuade the Foreign Office that I should be allowed even to visit my Israeli counterpart.
I am pleased to say that things have improved somewhat in recent years but we are still playing catch-up, and we are seeing today the difficulties that playing catch-up presents for us when we seek to influence invents within the world. We do, though, have many individuals in the UK who maintain important contacts within Israel. Perhaps we need to think about mobilising this community in support of the current process, and exploring how it might contribute to the debate in Israel. This is no doubt already happening in an ad hoc fashion, but is there not some way we can mobilise this important resource to make up, at least in part, for our lack of direct national influence?
The third issue that I want to touch on is the question of security. One does not have to be a military genius to understand that Israel’s pre-1967 borders were a strategic nightmare. If we were simply to return to this situation, give or take elements of land swap, without providing a greater degree of defensive depth for Israel, then we would be putting in place an inherently unstable arrangement—one that in time would be highly likely to fail. On the other hand, Israel’s demand to exercise unilateral control over Palestinian airspace and in the Jordan Valley does not sit comfortably with the notion of Palestinian sovereignty.
Some have suggested that the answer is to involve NATO. However, the Israelis are very sceptical about such an arrangement. They view with an understandably jaundiced eye the international community’s record in the Lebanon, and would be loath to put their security in the hands of such a force in the Jordan Valley. I believe that the question of airspace control can be worked out relatively easily. There are many examples of allies—which is what Israel and Palestine would have to be—pooling responsibility for air defence and putting in place the necessary arrangements for unified airspace.
With regard to the Jordan Valley, only a degree of international involvement is likely to soothe Palestinian sensitivities. However, international involvement has to be what the Israelis are prepared to accept, even if reluctantly. This is an issue on which General Allen, the previous Commander of US Central Command, is currently working for Secretary Kerry. It is also an issue in which the UK has great expertise and to which it might make a significant long-term contribution. With that in mind, has the Ministry of Defence undertaken any discussions on the subject with the Pentagon? Has the ministry begun any assessment of the likely contribution that the UK might make to an international force? Of course these are early days, and we would not want to get ahead of ourselves, let alone of the negotiations. However, it is an area where some preliminary analysis could be of value, and certainly it is an issue on which we should be liaising closely with the Americans.
There is much else to be said about the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, but I will close with a wider observation. We seem to be witnessing—finally—the unravelling of the San Remo decisions and of the other attempts to tidy away the detritus of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War. The UK played a major role in that process. Although we may now be somewhat diminished on the international stage, we have an obligation to do all in our power to help address the consequent problems. Practical support for a continuing and enduring effort to resolve the Israel-Palestine issue must surely be the cornerstone of such efforts.
Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)
My Lords, ever since President Obama’s new Secretary of State, John Kerry, began, as his top priority, to reassemble the well-worn components of that oxymoron known as the Middle East peace process, he has been subjected to a deluge of denigration, disparagement and weary cynicism from the serried ranks of pundits, many of whom have broken their teeth on that problem over the years. Now, with the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons and the convening of a Geneva 2 conference aimed at ending the Syrian civil war taking centre stage, that chorus is, if anything, louder. Is that disparagement justified as simple, common-sense realism, or is it a short-sighted unwillingness to recognise an opportunity where one really exists? I unhesitatingly argue the latter, which is why I welcome the noble and gallant Lord’s initiative in initiating this debate.
One reason for thinking that there is an opportunity, oddly, is because the Arab-Israeli dispute is not, for once, the focus of diplomatic preoccupations in the Middle East. That could be an advantage. In the past, excessive public focus on the issue has often led to the rhetorical radicalisation of the respective negotiating positions of the parties. Perhaps all concerned should reflect on whether they can be quite so sure that the outsiders on whom they rely will be ready to pull their chestnuts out of the fire in some future conflagration.
That thought could concentrate the minds of the Israelis, whose US backers seem increasingly dubious about any direct military involvement in the Middle East. It could also concentrate the minds of the Palestinians, whose Arab backers are focusing their efforts on other problems—domestic in the case of Egypt, and international in the case of Saudi Arabia. It could also influence Hamas, which is increasingly bereft of external support. If those trends get the direct parties to the dispute to focus on their own negotiating positions, and on compromises that they will need to strike if a peace deal is to be achieved, the prospects for progress could be improved.
Then there are more classical arguments for giving this renewed effort to reach a negotiated solution a real chance. We should not delude ourselves; the fact that the Arab-Israeli dispute is not currently centre stage does not mean that it has lost any of its explosive potential. Indeed, the fact that we almost certainly face several decades of instability in the Middle East, as the aftershocks of the Arab awakening work themselves out, only increases that potential. Meanwhile the continued Israeli settlement building on the West Bank inevitably pushes the situation towards insolubility and drives Israel towards something that it is no hyperbole to call an apartheid regime. These outcomes must surely be avoided if they possibly can be.
Are there any new elements that could usefully be injected into the process without destabilising it? One such idea might be to give more serious consideration to the guarantees that could be entrenched, both for Jewish minorities in a future Palestinian state, and for Arab minorities in Israel. This aspect has been neglected for far too long. Does it really make sense to think that every single Jewish settler will need to be removed—by force if necessary—from the territory of the Palestinian state, and that the substantial Arab population of Israel should be treated for ever as second-class citizens? I doubt it. That said, the logic of the situation is that outsiders—influential as they inevitably are and will be, and necessary as effective supporters and perhaps guarantors of any negotiated solution—should be less prominent than they have been in the negotiating process. Rather than negotiating, they should be talking with all those who will need to be party to any settlement. I urge—as I have done an awful lot of times—that we should be ready to talk to anyone who is prepared to operate within the scope of the Arab peace initiative. That should include Hamas.
It will be interesting to hear the Government’s views on this, and I hope that we will not remain, as we were in the past, too chained to the axle of American policy. The US is in a different position from us and I hope that we will be able, with our European partners, to play an active role in the months ahead.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, we are very tight on time. If noble Lords could be very strict in sitting down as soon as they see the four minutes come up, I should be grateful.
The Senior Minister of State, Department for Communities and Local Government & Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Warsi) (Con)
My Lords, I would like to begin by thanking the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, for giving us the opportunity to debate this subject. I know that the Middle East peace process is a subject of deep interest to those here today and to the House generally. I would also like to thank the noble and gallant Lord for leading the UK delegation with Sir John Scarlett at the recent UK-Israel security seminar held at Wilton Park. This is important work that enables us to better understand Israel’s security concerns and explore how these could be resolved in the context of the Middle East peace process. We look forward to the next conference in January of next year.
As my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary has made clear, progress towards peace through the two-state solution is needed urgently. The ongoing events in the Middle East that have so consistently dominated world media continue to focus all of our minds on the need for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We therefore warmly welcome the resumption of talks between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Washington on 30 July, and the resumption of formal negotiations on 14 August, with a view to resolving all final status issues.
The UK firmly supports a negotiated settlement leading to a safe and secure Israel living alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state based on 1967 borders with agreed land swaps, Jerusalem as the shared capital of both states, and a just, fair and agreed settlement for refugees. This is the only way to secure a sustainable end to the conflict, and it has wide support in this House and across the world. We strongly believe that achieving such a solution is in the interests of Israel, the Palestinians and the wider region. Of course I note the worries of the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, and the concerns voiced by the noble Lord, Lord Williams, but as I said earlier this year, this is a decisive year; this is the best chance in a decade—and perhaps the last chance—of ending this conflict. Britain will be there every step of the way. I hear the concerns of the noble and gallant Lord, but as the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate, it is increasingly clear that time to achieve a two-state solution is now running out.
It is with this in mind that the American Administration have carefully set out the foundations for negotiations to begin. Secretary Kerry worked hard with both parties leading into the resumption of negotiations, emphasising the difficult choices that lie ahead. We do not underestimate the challenges involved, a point that we have made clear to both parties. We continue to applaud the commitment Secretary Kerry has made. I echo the words of the noble Lord, Lord Triesman, on Secretary Kerry: his passion, determination and commitment were obvious for all to see when he spoke at the United Nations General Assembly.
It is also the courageous leadership shown by both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas, and the commitment of negotiators on both sides, that has enabled these negotiations to resume. In this regard, we welcome the decision taken by Israel on 28 July to release 26 Palestinian prisoners in advance of talks. The noble Lord, Lord Weidenfeld, referred to this. The negotiating parties have been disciplined in maintaining a coherent single-track model of negotiation. They have been meeting regularly. At the negotiator level, they have had several rounds of direct bilateral talks, and the US special envoy has been party to a number of these. At the same time, information about the discussions has been well protected from release to the outside world, which we believe is both positive and necessary to reduce the risk of disruption to the process. We continue to support the aims and objectives of the quartet, which we believe are aligned with UK interests.
The noble Lord, Lord Turnberg, asked about the Arab League. The UK is working closely with the Arab League countries in support of the peace process. We agree on the importance of working with all international partners to achieve a successful deal and it is clear that the Arab states have an important role to play. We warmly welcome the Arab League’s decision earlier this year to reaffirm the Arab peace initiative and its contribution to the resumption of talks. We are closely engaged with Arab partners and others in the international community to support efforts to achieve a just and sustainable peace.
Looking ahead, it is clear that determined leadership from the United States will remain critical in the months to come. I note the practical suggestions of the noble Lord, Lord Judd. Britain will do all it can to support the parties and the US in their efforts to achieve a negotiated peace, and we have already played an active role. In September, President Abbas visited London for meetings with my right honourable friends the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister. In both cases, the Middle East peace process was at the very top of the agenda. President Abbas also met my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary and Secretary Kerry. In his subsequent statement, my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary reiterated to President Abbas that Britain is committed to supporting,
“the Palestinians, Israelis and the United States to achieve this agreement and the lasting peace that the people of the region need and deserve”.
We will continue to work with all our international partners, including the quartet, the Arab League and the European Union, to support efforts to achieve a just and sustainable peace. Of course, we know the path ahead will be difficult. As Secretary Kerry has noted:
“There is no shortage of passionate sceptics”.
So the immediate political focus between the Israelis and the Palestinians should be on building trust as they take forward the negotiations. Reaching agreement on final status issues necessarily involves detailed discussion about refugees, Jerusalem, borders, security arrangements and Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. These issues, especially that of refugees in Jerusalem, are complex, and making progress on them will require difficult choices to be made by both sides.
To avoid drift, Secretary Kerry has explicitly required negotiations to be concluded within nine months, and maintaining the momentum is crucial to meeting this deadline. We therefore welcome Secretary Kerry’s recent announcement that talks are due to intensify in the coming weeks. We will continue to support Palestinian state-building efforts ahead of a deal, including by fostering private sector-led, sustainable economic growth in the West Bank. We also welcome the steps taken by Israel referred to by my noble friend Lord Palmer and the noble Lord, Lord Weidenfeld. These steps are positive and we look forward to further progress in the days and months ahead, including on some of the issues to which noble Lords referred, such as the rights of minorities, which were mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay.
I conclude by thanking noble Lords again for their participation in this debate. We will take every opportunity to promote a peaceful two-state solution, which is important not just for the security of the immediate region but of the UK too. The groundwork has been laid, so we now look to President Abbas and Prime Minister Netanyahu to continue their strong political leadership, and we will provide support wherever necessary. In parallel, we will continue to call on the European Union, the Arab League and other international partners to unite behind Secretary Kerry’s efforts and do everything possible to support decisive moves for peace.
We are at a critical juncture. Either there is a movement towards peace with strong regional and international support or all of us face an uncertain and potentially dangerous future. Developments since the Arab spring have made progress even more pressing, not least in light of the threat posed by the conflict in Syria and the current events in Egypt. Maintaining the status quo is neither desirable nor practical. The Government therefore remain committed to supporting the efforts of the parties and their shared commitment to reaching a permanent status agreement within the agreed goal of nine months. We firmly believe that if both parties continue to show bold leadership, peace via a two-state solution is achievable.