Report of the Iraq Inquiry

Lord Selkirk of Douglas Excerpts

Wednesday 6th July 2016 Lords Chamber

[Earl Howe]

The noble Lord, with his immense experience of the Middle East, draws attention to a particularly important message in Sir John’s report—the sheer complexity of the situation on the ground. That was not sufficiently appreciated by the Government of the day, although there were those who provided some good insights into what might happen post the conflict and the risks that were posed by intervening in what would undoubtedly prove to be a febrile situation. The noble Lord’s central point is well made.

[Lord Selkirk of Douglas (Con)]

With regard to the principle asserted in the Statement that,

“taking the country to war should always be a last resort and should only be done if all credible alternatives have been exhausted”,

can the Minister confirm that that principle should be endorsed and followed?

[Earl Howe]

Yes, undoubtedly so. It is perhaps one of Sir John’s most serious criticisms in the report that going to war in this instance was not the last resort and that there were diplomatic avenues still open at the time that the order was given to commence military action. I am sure that all noble Lords would agree that that should never happen again.

The Role and Capabilities of the UK Armed Forces, in the Light of Global and Domestic Threats to Stability and Security

Lord Selkirk of Douglas Excerpts

Tuesday 15th September 2015 Grand Committee

[Lord Selkirk of Douglas (Con)]

I, too, am very grateful to the noble Earl for giving us the opportunity to have this debate. It is a great pleasure to follow the noble and gallant Lord, whose wise counsel is always very welcome.

The 2010 strategic defence and security review was undertaken at a time when we faced the biggest budget deficit in our post-war history. There was a widespread feeling that it was Treasury-driven and much concern was expressed, not least in this House, about the swingeing reductions that it set out for our armed services. Ministers were increasingly being pressed to justify the ring-fencing and safeguarding of overseas aid, but not defence.

More recently, there was grave concern here at home and among our allies abroad, particularly the United States, when it appeared that the United Kingdom might be on course to fall below the recommended NATO defence spending target of 2% of GDP. As a result, the Chancellor’s announcement in the Budget that the UK would in fact meet the 2% NATO target for every year of this decade was very warmly welcomed by those of us who felt that the cutbacks had threatened to put our security—and perhaps even our place on the UN Security Council—at risk.

However, relieved as we were, it now seems clear that that promise should be subject to careful scrutiny. It has emerged that parts of the budget for our intelligence services could be included in defence spending, and even portions of the foreign aid budget. In view of this, the words of Dr Julian Lewis, the chairman of the Defence Select Committee in another place, should be taken very seriously. He commented:

“My concern throughout this process is that creative accounting should be avoided and that we should calculate the percentage of GDP spent on defence in the same way in the future as it has been in the past”.

In my 10 years as a Scotland Office Minister, I always dreaded receiving a letter from a Treasury Minister that concluded with the words, “We are not persuaded”, which is well-known Civil Service jargon for a most emphatic “no”. I suspect today that if the Government go too far down the road of creative accounting, many parliamentarians could well answer like the Treasury that, “We are not persuaded”.

It seems that decisions may have to be made against a background of competing priorities for apparently finite resources. On the difficult decisions which may take place, I wish the Minister every good fortune in his detailed discussions and say that we hope to have the outcome that will strike the most appropriate balance. But with the Government seeking a further £20 billion of cuts in departmental budgets over the next few years, it would be unwise indeed to assume that the MoD has nothing further to fear. Although there was a promise in the Budget that defence spending would rise in real terms by 0.5% above inflation each year during this Parliament, the MoD first has to find £500 million-worth of cuts this year as part of overall government spending plans. It has insisted that these cuts will not affect operations or manpower. It is greatly to be hoped that the latest SDSR, which is now under way, will be driven by the long-term needs of our armed services and not by preordained reductions on a Treasury balance sheet in Whitehall.

My noble friend Lord King of Bridgwater made the point very effectively that we need flexibility. We need flexible forward planning and, where necessary, additional resources based on an up-to-date assessment of the defence capabilities required to meet current threats confronting the United Kingdom and her allies. Among a number of commitments already made, the Prime Minister promised that the strength of the Army would not be allowed to fall below 82,000 service men and women—a reduction in numbers of 20,000 since 2010, which has already been reached three years early. This is a pledge which I hope and believe will be kept if we are to retain our international credibility.

Unlike the SNP Government, I strongly support the welcome recent announcement by the Chancellor that more than £500 million is to be spent on upgrading the submarine base at Faslane. However, among the vital issues to which the SDSR must give a convincing response is: what is to be done to ensure the safety of our Trident nuclear fleet in view of the current gap in the United Kingdom’s maritime surveillance capabilities? This issue was raised by many of us today. The situation arose, as we well know, because of the scrapping of the £4 billion Nimrod fleet of aircraft in 2010. Earlier this year, the media were full of reports of how the MoD had been forced to call for help from US planes to track what was believed to be a Russian submarine, spotted off the coast of Scotland. In such situations, serious questions have been asked about our ability to protect the nuclear fleet at Faslane. This is a matter on which the Government, if I may say so, have a definite duty to act so that we have the capacity to respond to potential threats.

I welcome the commitments made by the Prime Minister over commissioning and deploying both the new aircraft carriers being built for the Royal Navy. We would like to be assured that the additional resources will be made available to maintain and protect both carriers. Perhaps the Minister call tell us, in the context of the SDSR, whether the armed services will be able to increase capabilities where there is a pressing need. Will the Government be consulting our NATO allies about the capabilities which the MoD should maintain and protect?

My final and possibly most important point is that the Government must be prepared to allocate sufficient resources not only to deter aggression but to meet unforeseen threats and hazards. My noble friend Lord King of Bridgwater made a point about the threat of the unexpected. That was also touched on by the noble Lord, Lord Dannatt, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Newnham. As a former MP, I remember vividly the recall of the House of Commons on that Saturday morning in 1982 when MPs were summoned after the invasion of the Falkland Islands, which the Government, headed by the then Prime Minister, Mrs Margaret Thatcher, had not altogether anticipated. Similarly, the attack on the twin towers in New York on 11 September 2001 came as a great shock and forced a change in global defence strategies.

The Prime Minister and the Defence Secretary have told us recently that you cannot have strong defence without a strong economy, and that for defence to be deliverable it has to be affordable. I agree, but surely the vital question is: now that the economy has recovered, how high a priority is to be given to the defence of the realm at a time of increased turbulence and turmoil in the world? I believe that it should be very high indeed, especially when it comes to allocating resources and protecting favoured budgets.

Defence: Budget

Lord Selkirk of Douglas Excerpts

Wednesday 17th June 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Selkirk of Douglas (Con)]

My Lords, our Prime Ministers have in the past often faced a dilemma over how much to spend on defence. Indeed, on 12 November 1936, Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin said during the debate on the Address:

“Supposing I had gone to the country and said that Germany was rearming and that we must rearm, does anybody think that this pacific democracy would have rallied to that cry at that moment? I cannot think of anything that would have made the loss of the election from my point of view more certain”.—[Official Report, Commons, 12/11/1936; col. 1144.]

The Prime Minister Winston Churchill took a very different view. He liked the Roman saying, “If you want peace, prepare for war”. The one who might give us the best clue as to what Governments should do today is Churchill. After all, he participated in more wars than any other world leader of the last century. Speaking in general terms, he was remarkably prescient. He said:

“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best’. You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary”.—[Official Report, Commons, 7/3/1916; col. 1427.]

By the way, I suspect that, as with us today, Stanley Baldwin would have liked to limit Churchill’s speeches on rearmament to no more than three minutes.

In the present situation, with the regular British Army at its smallest level for almost 200 years, the test of what is necessary should not be driven exclusively by Treasury considerations. There has to be significant recognition of strategic security requirements, and we subordinate these at our peril. When the President of the United States and the former Secretary-General of NATO both express grave concern at the possibility that Britain might fail to maintain defence spending at 2% of GDP, we can only hope that Ministers are listening to them and the concern of others who are Britain’s friends and allies—otherwise, I fear that the wrong signals will be given to those who do not wish us well. Just last weekend, former Chiefs of Staff revealed their concerns regarding further defence cuts. In the words of Admiral Sir Nigel Essenhigh:

“If the outcome of the Review is a further reduction in military expenditure and not a commitment to a sustained increase, then the Government will be neglecting its prime and overriding duty, the defence of the nation, by failing to halt the progressive decline of British military capability into penny packet numbers”.

He called on the Government to ensure that the forthcoming,

“Defence and Security Review does not degenerate into yet another cuts exercise”.

I note that the Secretary of State for Defence has recently warned in another place that,

“defence, to be deliverable, has to be affordable”.—[Official Report, Commons, 8/6/15; col. 885.]

My submission tonight is that affordability must not mean lowering our guard and losing the confidence of our allies.