The Role and Capabilities of the UK Armed Forces, in the Light of Global and Domestic Threats to Stability and Security
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)
My Lords, I am very grateful for the opportunity to speak to your Lordships on this timely subject. Events of recent months, from terror on a Tunisian beach to the great migration precipitated, in part, by the fallout from the evil actions of ISIL in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, have reminded us once more that we live in a darker, more dangerous world. Yet global terror, whether from ISIL, Boko Haram or lone wolves, is far from the only problem facing us. When I last served in the Ministry of Defence 20 years ago, the Cold War was not long over. I could not have imagined that within two decades we would see Russia once more resurgent, threatening her neighbours and challenging our international rules-based order, almost as if the Berlin Wall had never come down.
All these issues pose direct and indirect threats to our national security and remind us of the importance of our Armed Forces. They underline that defence of the realm must always be a Government’s number one priority, and there can be no question—as some would have it—of the UK retreating to its goal line. On the contrary, we have to be more active than ever, levering our global influence and the strength of our Armed Forces to speak out and stand up to aggression wherever we find it. That is what our brave Armed Forces have been doing right around the globe.
They are doing so in the Mediterranean, where our ships are rescuing migrants; they are doing so in eastern Europe, where we are stepping up training of Ukrainian troops and where we have Typhoons patrolling Balkan airspace. Next year they will be back for the third year in a row. They are doing so in Iraq, where RAF Tornado and Reaper aircraft have now flown approximately 1,300 missions and conducted 288 strikes while our Tornados gather 60% of the coalition’s tactical reconnaissance. Are we making a difference? Yes. Thanks to this support, surrogate local forces have regained 25% of the territory ISIL held in Iraq after its advance last summer.
As the Prime Minister made clear in his Statement to the House of Commons last week, the Government will not hesitate to act in Syria, where ISIL’s command and control is based, or in Libya, should there be a direct threat to the British people. The recently successful precision strike against a UK national and two ISIL associates by an RAF remotely piloted vehicle shows our determination to take on and defeat the terrorists wherever they are hiding.
These are far from our only areas of activity. We are currently taking part in 21 joint operations in 19 countries—more than double the number of five years ago. The reason we have been able to maintain this impetus is because of the tough action we have taken over the last five years, ridding ourselves of a financial black hole of £38 billion, balancing the budget and reforming defence from top to bottom, so that we now have a more agile, better-equipped fighting force.
Yet the subtext of today’s debate is whether we will continue to have what it takes to address the ongoing threats of the future. Here, too, I believe we can answer in the affirmative for three reasons. First, we are investing in the capability we need for the future. One of the main results of our defence reform programme was that it enabled us to set aside a budget of £163 billion for equipment over 10 years. Consequently, we are now investing in the best capability money can buy, including Hunter Killer submarines, T26 global combat ships, fifth generation F35 fighters and the cutting-edge Scout vehicle, complete with a new cased telescope cannon.
Some of this kit is on display this week at the DSEI exhibition in Docklands. What you will not get the chance to see, because it is too big, is the first of our two 60,000 tonne Queen Elizabeth class carriers. These future flagships of our fleet are the most powerful vessels ever constructed in the UK. The fact that we are one of four countries in the world building carriers underscores our commitment to remain engaged in the world. Taken alongside our upgraded capabilities across all domains, it gives us a full-spectrum capability to be proud of.
My second point is that innovation is as much about tactics as about capability, and the tactics of our enemies are changing. They are using proxies to wage low-fi warfare and undermine other sovereign states; they are adept at cyberattacks, targeting not just military but civilian infrastructure such as banks and transport networks; and they are making increasing use of social media techniques to spread lies and misinformation, while luring impressionable minds into committing acts of terror against their own countries. To respond, we too must adapt, and we are doing so in a number of ways. We have the Army’s advance guard, 77 Brigade, working to become masters of the narrative and harness the internet to deliver a faster truth. We have the RAF working on a cyberstrategy and building cyber into the planning and execution of coalition missions. And when it comes to facing down terror, the Government are taking a full-spectrum response. We are publishing a comprehensive strategy to counter extremism that will improve our understanding of such fanaticism, introduce measures to promote our shared values and strengthen civil society to prevent extremism taking hold.
We have already joined forces with internet companies to take down more than 90,000 pieces of extremist material. We have trained thousands of local government workers to identify and prevent radicalisation and we have excluded nearly 100 preachers of hate from entry into Britain—more than any other country. Meanwhile, we are using moderate voices across the Middle East, north Africa and in the UK itself to air a counternarrative. The terrorists need to know that we will stop at nothing to stop their poison taking hold, so we are changing our tactics—but we also need to augment our strategy. The conflicts we are facing are global in nature and generational in duration, so we have to forge strategic partnerships with global allies if we are to confront and solve these issues. That is why the UK is continuing to strengthen its network of friendships and alliances. At a bilateral level, we are proud of our ongoing special relationship with the United States, where we work together across the world from the Baltic to the Indian Ocean, and have a regular dialogue with our counterparts across the pond, and we will soon mark five years of the Lancaster House treaty, which has augmented our ties with France.
Next year, our combined Joint Expeditionary Force will take part in an exercise to bring it up to full operating capacity. However, we are not just working bilaterally but multilaterally, especially as part of NATO, the cornerstone of our defence. We have been a leading voice for NATO reform, and since last year’s summit hosted in Wales, we have upped our game. We have committed 1,000 personnel to each year of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. We have also increased the number in NATO training exercises, from 3,000 to 4,000, and this month we will be contributing an Army brigade HQ battle group, naval task force and RAF Typhoon aircraft to Exercise Trident Juncture, the largest live NATO exercise for over a decade.
Critically, following the Chancellor’s Budget announcement, we will now also be committing to NATO’s 2% target for the next five years—a move that President Obama praised as sending,
“a significant signal from their primary partner on the world stage”.
The Chancellor’s announcement on defence was significant in two other respects. By emphasising that the defence budget would now grow, he has allowed us to invest any future savings we make in the organisation into front-line capabilities, whether in the latest high-tech gear or in the talented personnel to operate it. The Prime Minister has already said that some of this money will be used to augment our intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance abilities and Special Forces.
A growing budget means that we now have essential breathing space to conduct our strategic defence and security review. We are not starting from scratch. SDSR 2010 provided the foundations for this review. It set the template for a far more agile and flexible force, able to meet the varied and multiple challenges of an uncertain age. Yet the reason we introduced regular five-year defence reviews was that we understood how much can change in a comparatively short space of time. With our major commitments in Afghanistan now delivered, this review presents an opportunity to refresh our thinking about the roles of defence, the way in which we direct defence activity and how we describe our outputs to the public.
Make no mistake: the review, now well under way, will be full and comprehensive. Led by the Cabinet Office in close consultation with relevant departments, it will be driven by our national security and foreign policy objectives. It will take a look at both traditional defence and security topics, as well as the complex risks we face in a rapidly changing world. It will also go further by creating a new framework for defence. That framework will ensure that we can maintain our operational and technological edge; recruit and retain the best people; forge stronger international relationships and stimulate trade and technology, as well as support industry; allow us to continue making strides on efficiency, since the more we do to reduce cost, the more we can put into the front line; and ensure that we maintain our reputation as a country with some of the best Armed Forces around—a country that is truly a global player. We will formally publish the national security strategy 2015 in late autumn. We anticipate that the SDSR will be closely aligned with the 2015 comprehensive spending review and should be published by the end of 2015.
We are living through what the Chinese might call interesting times. At such times, we are immensely grateful for the tireless work of our Armed Forces in defending our shores around the clock and we have spent the last few years making sure that they have the capabilities—despite financial constraints—to keep responding whenever the call comes. They have done us proud but the threats we face are constantly changing, so our review will help prepare us for what comes next. However, whatever the challenges to come, noble Lords should be clear that we are utterly unequivocal about one thing: the Government are determined to do everything in their power to keep our country safe and secure. I beg to move.
Earl Howe
My Lords, I think we would all agree that we have had a very constructive debate. I am exceedingly grateful for the contributions from all sides of the Chamber. I will try to deal with some of the points raised by noble Lords and noble and gallant Lords but I am conscious that I will probably be kept very busy writing letters for the next week or two as I do not think that I can answer in my closing speech every single question that has been put to me today.
The title of this debate asked us to take note,
“of the role and capabilities of the UK Armed Forces, in the light of global and domestic threats to stability and security”.
As all noble Lords are aware, that is a rather large field. We live in a world where, to use that almost eloquent Americanism, there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns. In looking at the ongoing strategic defence and security review, we are peering into a very dark glass indeed. However, we know for certain that this SDSR should be different from the last. Given the 2% commitment, it is certainly not about cuts. That enables me to start by addressing the defence budget.
My noble friends Lord King and Lady Fookes picked up on the sentence included in my opening speech which reinforced the Government’s recognition that defence must always be the Government’s number one priority. Lest there be any doubt on the matter, I re-emphasise that this is the view of government as a whole. The Summer Budget document published by the Treasury said:
“The first duty of government is to ensure the safety and security of the country and its people”.
That document formalised our commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence until 2020. My noble friend Lord King questioned whether that would be enough. However, I remind him that that same document also committed to raise the MoD budget by 0.5% per annum in real terms over this Parliament. There will also be an additional £1.5 billion a year by 2020-21 in a new joint security fund.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Newnham, took us to the issue of strategy and rightly challenged me on our thinking. The SDSR will be framed in the context of the national security strategy. The strategic context is fundamental to the work now under way. Our analysis suggests that the 2010 national security strategy judgment that we were entering an age of uncertainty, as the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, mentioned, has been thoroughly vindicated in the intervening period. We anticipated that international terrorism would remain a major challenge and expected to see a range of domestic resilience challenges. Our decision to configure our Armed Forces to be flexible and adaptable to evolving threats has been proven correct.
However, we recognise that we have moved beyond the era of uncertainty to a period characterised best by heightened competition, instability and insecurity. I can tell the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig, that resilience is very much a principle that we are factoring into our deliberations. In general, procurement levels are set to allow for operational losses and sufficient reliance. I take his specific point about the need for credible, conventional combat power in addition to the deterrent. We are confident that the deterrent itself remains capable and effective and that we maintain sufficient and capable conventional forces.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth and other noble Lords questioned whether it was the Government’s genuine aim for the UK to remain a major global player. We are clear that there will be no reduction in Britain’s influence overseas. Our military, security, diplomatic and development capabilities are respected globally. Our diplomatic network spans 268 posts in 168 countries and territories and nine multilateral organisations. The UK has world-leading intelligence agencies and Armed Forces, a strong police force and an impressive National Crime Agency. The UK led the EU’s response to the crises in Syria and Iraq, including responding to the threat from ISIL. The Government will continue to do more on forward defence, reducing the threats before they reach our borders.
The right reverend Prelate and the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, raised the issue of the SDSR process itself. In developing the NSS and SDSR, the Ministry of Defence, alongside the Cabinet Office, the FCO, DfID and the Home Office, has engaged with a broad range of internal and external stakeholders. We have met groups of external experts; hosted academic engagement sessions across the UK; participated in meetings with NGOs and industry round tables; we have briefed Back-Bench MPs, the House of Commons Defence Committee, interested Peers and the devolved Administrations. In total, we have discussed the review with more than 100 experts from nearly 40 different organisations and institutions. I can tell my noble friend Lord Selkirk that we have also engaged with international allies and partners and welcomed the public to write in with their thoughts. The right reverend Prelate, in particular, will wish to take note of the online poll that was conducted recently. We are serious about open policy-making. We have sought comments over the summer, as this gives us the time to analyse the results and feed them into the review process in a meaningful way. The poll is only one of several ways of engagement and offers the public another avenue for comment.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, my noble friend Lord Selkirk, the right reverend Prelate and other noble Lords spoke about the capabilities that we are reviewing in the SDSR. The SDSR is clearly an opportunity to re-examine our capability choices. In 2010, we highlighted that we would return to some questions in this review. Maritime patrol aircraft, ballistic missile defence and future combat aircraft fit into that category and they will all be considered. We also committed to considering NATO’s capability shortfalls and which ones we could help to mitigate. I am afraid it is too early to discuss options and decisions in detail, although I will comment on particular questions that noble Lords have raised in a second. The noble Lord, Lord Dannatt, asked whether defence engagement would become a formal military task. The framework by which defence activity is directed is currently being revised as part of the review. Defence engagement is clearly a very important defence function and is likely to be very prominent in the future framework for defence. I am afraid that is as far as I can go at the moment, but I hope he will take comfort from the fact that it is in our sights.
The noble Lord also asked me about army basing. The army basing programme enables the Army to reorganise into its new Army 2020 structures, and delivers the Government’s 2010 SDSR commitment to bring all UK military units back from Germany by 2020. The programme has been delivered jointly by the Defence Infrastructure Organisation and the Army. Although some units have already withdrawn from Germany to the UK, the majority of the 30 moves or re-roles conducted in 2013-14 were inside the UK. In the summer of this year, some 5,200 service personnel and their families, totalling 10,000 people, will have returned from Germany to the UK.
The final phase of the army basing programme involves the remaining units in Germany, principally 20th Armoured Infantry Brigade based in Paderborn, and completes a number of residual internal UK moves. The whole programme is still scheduled to complete by 2020. There are sufficient funds to complete the programme and it is on track. We were considering bringing it forward but have decided instead to leave the plans in place. There are no plans to leave any units or force elements in Germany.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, posed the question of why we are in Iraq and whether it was just because we had been invited by that country to provide assistance. Let me make it clear: ISIL threatens the people of the Middle East and poses a threat to our own national security. Defeating ISIL will take time and patience but it is a fight that we must win. The UK is part of a global coalition of over 60 countries, including Iraq, Arab nations, European partners and the United States, united to defeat ISIL. The UK contribution to the coalition effort is significant. We provide capability across the full spectrum of air power, including niche and highly advanced intelligence surveillance, reconnaissance and airstrike capabilities, and in many other areas. ISIL, as has been said, cannot just be defeated by military action. The underlying causes must also be addressed, which is why we are supporting inclusive governance in Iraq and political transition in Syria.
My noble friend Lord King rightly emphasised the importance of maintaining NATO as a strong and credible alliance to deter and face down any possible aggression. As I am sure he knows, the UK has made a significant contribution to NATO’s reassurance exercises since they came into being in May last year. NATO’s readiness action plan provides a comprehensive package of measures, including the development of the very high readiness joint task force and assurance measures to respond to changes in the security environment on NATO’s borders, including challenges posed by Russia. In my opening speech I mentioned the contribution that we were making and will continue to make in future. However, it is fair to say that the NATO summit in Wales in September last year demonstrated alliance solidarity at a time of tension on NATO’s borders, a tension that continues. It saw agreement on a number of key objectives, including NATO’s readiness action plan, which seeks to increase the responsiveness of allies through the development of the very high readiness joint task force, and by conducting assurance measures, particularly exercises in the eastern and Baltic states. Those exercises of course provide valuable training opportunities as well as contributing to the reassurance of Eastern allies.
The noble Lord, Lord Davies of Stamford, took me somewhat to task on several matters, including the so-called funding black hole in the MoD budget. I have no wish to irritate the noble Lord in the slightest. First, I readily acknowledge that many of the programmes that we are currently pursuing were initiated by the previous Labour Government. Ministers in that Government would perhaps not have been exposed to the £38 billion number, as it became apparent only during SDSR 2010 costing. The Government reported to the House of Commons Defence Committee on the figure of £38 billion in 2012. I am happy to write to the noble Lord with the figures that we provided to the committee at that time.
My noble friend Lord Attlee asked how we would ensure that no black hole would occur in the future. It is the job of Ministers to ensure that the MoD budget is in balance with its spending programme. The public spending envelope across government is now so strict and disciplined that it cannot be otherwise. It is our duty to report regularly and transparently to the Treasury and to account for our spending and our spending plans. Of course, we receive the benefit of its close oversight.
The noble Lord, Lord Davies, my noble friend Lord Selkirk of Douglas, and the noble Baroness, Lady Jolly, spoke about maritime patrol aircraft. We have acknowledged that we have a maritime surveillance capability gap following the decision not to bring the Nimrod MRA4 into service. However, we have also made it clear that it is one that we have chosen to accept. We have not sought to pretend otherwise. It is a gap that we have been able to mitigate through the employment of other assets, as noble Lords have mentioned, particularly also through co-operation with our allies who have deployed maritime patrol aircraft on several occasions.
We are conscious that this issue is in the sights of many people. It is very much in ours. It has been the subject of recent studies by the Ministry of Defence. We have received representations from a number of industrial organisations and those have allowed us to understand better the nature of the platforms currently in existence, as well as the timeframe in which novel technologies are likely to mature. I mentioned the support of our allies. Incidentally, that is not a one-way street. We supply support to our allies in return, such as air-to-air refuelling, surveillance and transport.
The noble Lord, Lord Davies, mentioned the F35 joint strike fighter. That is the world’s largest single defence programme. We have played an important role in the system design and demonstration phase, as he knows, resulting in significant contracts and jobs for UK industry. To date, we have taken delivery of three F35B aircraft. A further five for the UK are in production and are scheduled to be delivered in 2016 and early 2017. UK F35 initial operating capability is scheduled for 2018 and remains on track.
Earl Howe
I am coming to that. The F35 programme has been established as an incremental acquisition programme with production contracts being led initially on an annual basis. We will order sufficient lightning aircraft to build up our initial carrier strike capability, but the overall number of joint strike fighter aircraft to be purchased will not be determined before the strategic defence and security review at the earliest.
The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Boyce, referred to the Type 26 global combat ship, which will progressively replace Type 23 frigates from 2022 onwards. We are implementing an incremental approach to approvals and commitment on the T26 global combat ship programme, with separate approvals covering demonstration and manufacture phases. On current planning and subject to a main gate decision, the manufacture phase will begin in 2016. He asked about the national shipbuilding strategy. The strategy announced by the Chancellor on 30 January this year is progressing well and its conclusions will form part of the forthcoming strategic defence and security review later this year. The aim of that strategy is to help deliver world-class ships for the Royal Navy while ensuring the best value for money for the taxpayer. It will also ensure that the Navy continues to have the capability that it needs to protect our nation’s interests and ensure continued investment in UK warship production.
The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, referred to cyber. I readily agree that, in defence, cyber is essential to preserve our freedom to operate despite cyber threats and to achieve military effects through and in cyberspace. The whole of the defence supply chain also faces cyber threats. In 2013, the Defence Cyber Protection Partnership was launched as a joint government/industry initiative to increase the resilience of the defence sector. Our Armed Forces depend on equipment and services provided by industry. In government we face similar challenges, and we believe that that partnership will be of considerable value; indeed, it is already proving to be.
I will write to the noble Lord, Lord Dannatt, on the issues around industrial policy because they are very important. I would simply mention in particular the Defence Growth Partnership, which I believe will see us achieve a more thriving defence sector in the UK underpinned by work to improve international competitiveness and to target research investment more efficiently and effectively.
I cannot finish without referring to personnel issues, which my noble friend Lady Hodgson and the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, among others, emphasised with considerable persuasiveness. The Armed Forces are changing to meet the Future Force 2020 structure, which requires reductions in some capabilities and the growth of others. They are actively recruiting to sustain manning balance across all skill sets, preserve future operational capability and support regular and reserve manning ratios. Recruitment continues to be supported by significant marketing activity in the current financial year. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Jolly, that we need to increase attraction rates for a number of key trades such as medics and cyber engineers, nuclear, maritime and aviation. These are a particular issue due to national skills shortages. The latter issue is being explored in collaboration with other government departments. A joint team with industry has now been established and is undertaking a pathfinder project to allow the movement of skilled people across the defence sector.
With regard to the reserves, the new employment model that emerged from the 2010 SDSR aims to produce a modernised offer that reflects modern society. This is a wide-ranging review of the terms and conditions of service for service personnel, both regular and reserves, covering four broad policy areas: pay and allowances, accommodation, training and education, and career structures and career management. I will write further on where we are on recruitment and retention but I believe, as a result of a short brief I received this morning, that we are heading in the right direction.
With time moving on, with the leave of noble Lords I will cover just a few more issues. The right reverend Prelate raised the matter of women in ground close combat roles. That is not strictly an SDSR issue, as I expect he knows, but, following a review of the exclusion of women from ground close combat roles, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Defence announced at the end of last year that defence welcomes the prospect of opening ground close combat roles to women subject to the outcome of further physiological research before a final decision is taken in 2016.
The noble Lord, Lord Burnett, referred to the much discussed case of Sergeant Alexander Blackman, and I listened carefully to all that he said. There is a proper limit to what I can say in my ministerial capacity, as I know he recognises. But it is common knowledge that Sergeant Blackman appealed to the Court Martial Appeal Court, which incidentally is a wholly civilian court made up of the same judges who sit in the civilian Court of Appeal. The fairness and objectivity of that process was reflected by the decision on 22 May last year by the Court Martial Appeal Court, chaired by the Lord Chief Justice himself, which decided not to overturn the conviction of a life sentence. The court did reduce the minimum term Mr Blackman must serve from 10 to eight years. The full reasoning behind that judgment was published on the Ministry of Justice website, and it was based on the consideration of a range of factors that I will not go into. The MoD has, and can have, no view on Sergeant Blackman’s guilt or innocence. It would be improper for us to express a view. There is a legal process to determine that question. The MoD will however of course fully co-operate with the judicial process.
The noble Lord, Lord Dannatt, referred to the issue of Afghan interpreters and locally employed civilians. Our policy offers a redundancy relocation option that does not require local staff to prove that they are at risk. The policies of other NATO nations are largely based on asylum criteria. I would just say that the way that the Government’s policy and the implementation of that policy have been portrayed in the press has been wrong and misleading. We are the only nation with a permanent team of trained investigation officers in-country to investigate claims of intimidation. These experts have provided support to over 200 former local staff. A total of 500 local staff are eligible for relocation to the UK under the redundancy scheme, out of whom 170 have already moved to the UK along with their families, bringing the current total to 400. I am happy to write further to the noble Lord but I would add that the intimidation policy, which is quite separate from the ex gratia redundancy policy, allows for all current and former local staff members, regardless of dates or length of employment, whose safety has been threatened to approach us to consider relocation.
I have been advised that I have overshot my time. I will write to noble Lords about the other subjects that I have not been able to cover, notably the Armed Forces covenant. I listened very carefully to the comments from my noble friend Lady Buscombe on the Border Force command and listed buildings in Portsmouth.
I am conscious that I am in danger of exhausting the Committee’s patience, if I have not done so already, so I conclude by thanking all those noble Lords and noble and gallant Lords who have taken part in the debate. I look forward to writing to them over the next few days.