Autumn Statement

Lord Sassoon Excerpts

Wednesday 5th December 2012 Lords Chamber

[The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Sassoon)]

My Lords, your Lordships still have me here for a little longer; I am not retiring yet. I refer the House to the Autumn Statement made earlier in another place by my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, copies of which have been made available in the Printed Paper Office and the text of which will be printed in full in the Official Report. I commend my right honourable friend’s Statement to this House.

The following Statement was made earlier in the House of Commons.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, as my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer said earlier in another place, the British economy is healing. We are on the right track and turning back now would be a disaster. The deficit has already been cut by a quarter and is forecast to continue falling every year of the Parliament. I find it extraordinary that the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, questions the OBR’s explanation of this by saying that policy decisions are in some way fiddling the books. It is precisely because of the policy decisions that we took in the Budget and are taking again today that that deficit reduction continues to be on track at the same pace.

Since this Government took office, more than 1 million private sector jobs have been created and exports to emerging markets have doubled. In a tough global economic climate we are making progress. The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, referred to the growth forecast. The OBR’s growth forecast for the UK next year is that the economy will grow faster than, for example, that of France or Germany.

Let me remind your Lordships of a few examples of how the Government are protecting the economy, supporting growth and ensuring fairness, and of the measures that have been welcomed today. The Government have confirmed an extra £5.5 billion of additional infrastructure investment and support for businesses. That is in addition to the similar £5 billion switch from current to capital expenditure last year. The noble Lord may talk about drops in the ocean but the position now is that public and private infrastructure investment in this country is running at £33 billion a year. Under the previous Government, total average annual infrastructure spending was £29 billion. It is very important that we invest in the future of our infrastructure.

There will be a further 1% cut in the main rate of corporation tax from April 2014 to 21%, bringing it down to its lowest level—far lower than that of our most direct competitors and one of the lowest in the G20—and from this coming April the personal allowance will rise by a further £235 on top of the rise previously announced, making it the highest cash increase ever.

I shall now answer one or two of the other points made by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, on quantitative easing. First, the numbers are set out scrupulously transparently to show the effects before and after the transfer of cash on the income side from the APF to the Treasury. The numbers are completely clear. On his question about the contingency, the contingent liability on QE has been set out, and will continue to be set out in the notes to the whole of the Government’s accounts, as it should be. The OBR, in its document, points out, the effect of QE on its central case when it unwinds as being a significant reduction in debt.

Finally, the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, asks about the distributional effects of all of this. This is an important question, because he asks about transparency and the way we disclose the numbers. The previous Government never set out the distributional effects of their Budgets or Autumn Statements in their pre-Budget reports. We have published today on the Treasury website an 18-page document that goes further than even this Government have gone before in their distributional analysis, with several new tables that I warmly commend to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. These confirm, as at every stage in this Government’s deficit reduction plan, that those with the broadest shoulders bear the largest brunt. That is there in the document “Impact on households”.

So, as my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer said, the deficit is down, borrowing is down and jobs are being created. It is a hard road, but we are making progress and, in everything we do, we are helping those who want to work hard and get on.

[Baroness Garden of Frognal]

My Lords, perhaps I may remind noble Lords that Statements are a time for brief comments and questions. The briefer the questions the greater the number of noble Lords who will be able to contribute, so I urge everybody to be considerate.

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, this may be my only opportunity to pay tribute to My noble Friend Lord Sassoon before he steps down from the Front Bench, so let me do so. As any Minister, he will have expected fire from across the Chamber, but he has also had fire from over his right shoulder on occasion, and he has dealt with it extremely graciously. For many of us, the test of a Minister is how he and his team deal with Back-Benchers. Based on that test, he has been a superb Minister and we will miss him.

The Statement that the Chancellor presented to us today meets the test of being both tough and fair. It is remarkable that, despite the economic conditions that we face, the deficit is still reducing, which will have surprised many of the pundits but I am sure will have pleased this entire House.

As a Liberal Democrat I am most pleased about the decision by the Government to lift the threshold of the starting rate of tax one more time to £9,440. It was utterly unexpected. When this Government came in, that threshold was £6,475. To its credit, the coalition committed to raising it to £10,000. We are only half way through a Parliament, but it is at this point only £560 below its target. The impact is something like £600 more in the pocket of ordinary working people and more than 2 million people taken out of income tax altogether. In this time of economic stress, that is a phenomenal achievement. The Government should be congratulated.

I was pleased that the welfare cuts were well below those that were anticipated; I can see I am being asked to move to a question very quickly, so I will ask one in this way. Growth, as we all know, is now the holy grail that we attempt to achieve for this economy. Does the Minister agree that it now utterly depends on access to credit for the businesses that make up our economy? Will he commit to making sure, when he talks to his Treasury team, that the restructuring of the banks allows a new competitive environment with new entrants and new players that can deliver the kind of credit we need to the small businesses that are the backbone of our economy?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I am very grateful to my noble friend for her generous remarks and for her support since she has been her party’s spokesperson on the economy. The two parties are joined at the hip when it comes to the key economic work and all the other work of the Government. Importantly, she reminds us of a critical part of the Autumn Statement: raising the tax threshold to the benefit of 25 million people. That is very important.

On credit and access to credit, I draw the attention of the House and my noble friend to the comments of the OBR today. Its judgment is that the funding for lending scheme will lower rates for credit but increase availability. I very much share my noble friend’s concern to see a more competitive banking landscape emerge. In that context, it is interesting to note that the funding for lending facility is being taken up and having a disproportionate effect on some of the new challenger banks. I hope that that continues and that they continue to be able to increase their lending responsibly off the back of that scheme.

[Lord Myners]

My Lords, perhaps I may add my personal congratulations to the Minister. He has always brought great skill, tact, humour and optimism to his role on the Front Bench. It is a shame that that optimism has not seen the prize delivered because today’s economic Statement is a lamentable one. Against the two principal, navigating stars that the Chancellor of the Exchequer set—the fiscal mandate and a supplementary objective—he has missed, and missed by a country mile. On the first, he has been required to push austerity even further into the next Parliament and, on the second one, he makes only a modest reduction in debt as a percentage of GDP in the year 2017-18, but it is still 3% higher than in the current year. The policy of austerity-led expansion is clearly not working. An extra 1% of GDP growth during the lifetime of this Parliament would have reduced by five percentage points the proportion of debt to GDP. Growth is the key to reducing the deficit.

There are things in the Chancellor’s Statement that I find very commendable, particularly the extension of the dual carriageway of the A30 in my beloved Cornwall. Whether the right honourable Michael Gove will appreciate the use of the word “dualling” as a verb in the Chancellor’s Statement is questionable and I wonder whether Mr Gove would appreciate the arithmetic error in the Chancellor’s Statement on the increase in the inheritance tax nil band.

The Chancellor makes some very good points about attacking tax havens. So my question relates to suggesting to the Minister that, when we chair the G8, we should seriously consider saying that no G8 bank can operate in an offshore centre with a subsidiary or a branch. If, in the future, the banks of the Channel Islands—Guernsey and Jersey—were domestic banks rather than branches of subsidiaries of the world’s leading banks, most of the attraction of using despicable offshore tax havens would fall away.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, that seemed to be a speech rather than a question. However, I am grateful for some of what the noble Lord, Lord Myners, had to say and I shall miss sparring with him. I remain an optimist. In less than three years since the previous election, the private sector in this country has created 1.8 million new jobs, which is twice what the OBR projected, and the OBR’s projection today for the period up to 2018 is that 2.4 million further new private sector jobs will be created at a time when it estimates that public sector employment will be reduced by 1.1 million. Times are difficult, but I remain optimistic about the underlying strength and vibrancy of the private sector in this economy.

As to the observations of the noble Lord, Lord Myners, about offshore centres, some of the issues that he raises are certainly on the agenda, but it is inappropriate to talk about offshore centres and others. The key thing is to make sure that the so-called offshore centres are brought up to the standards of the best. Some of them have made huge strides; others need to. I take his points.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, does my noble friend not think it remarkable that the Official Opposition have no proposals for reducing the deficit by cutting public expenditure, and that there does not appear to be a scintilla of humility for the fact that they were running a deficit of some £70 billion at the height of the boom times? It was their irresponsible conduct over the economy that has got us into this mess. Should the Chancellor not be congratulated on not being more outraged at the response that he has had from the Opposition, in which former spokesmen are reduced to criticising the grammar of the Statement rather than its content? The truth is that they have nothing to offer the country to get us out of the mess that they created.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I am very grateful to my noble friend and agree with every word that he uttered.

[Lord Empey]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his personal courtesies to me since I have been a Member of your Lordships’ House.

I welcome the increased allowances for small businesses and the reductions in corporation tax. Will the further reductions in corporation tax dissuade the Minister’s right honourable friend the Prime Minister from considering devolving corporation tax-setting powers to the Northern Ireland Assembly? Secondly, will he consider once more a reduction of VAT to encourage the retrofitting of buildings so that they can not only be improved from an energy-efficiency point of view but benefit from a tax holiday on VAT for a small period of time, which would have limited dead-weight potential but would stimulate the construction sector? Will he give further consideration to those two points?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, the question of corporation tax in Northern Ireland continues to be considered. The key thing is that we are making the United Kingdom as a whole a more competitive place and in corporate tax terms the most competitive place to do business among our major competitors. Of course, the position in Northern Ireland will continue to be debated.

As far as the reduction in VAT is concerned, this is a case that is made regularly. We believe that what we have announced today—the two-year increase in the investment allowance—is a better way of targeting the limited resources that we have, in addition to what we have done on the basic rate of corporation tax.

[Baroness Wheatcroft]

My Lords, I add my congratulations to my noble friend on what he has achieved in his time in the House. I wish him well in whatever he chooses to do next. I agree that it is depressing that he has to leave us on the back of a Statement that shows the growth forecast having to be lowered.

It is worth noting that in the Blue Book the GDP fall in 2008-09 has been revisited and has come down by a massive 6.3%. Given that background, it is hardly surprising that the efforts to rebuild the economy are proving difficult. Nevertheless, in this Statement there are several things that will make a major contribution to improving the economy, and I congratulate my right honourable friend the Chancellor on the things he is doing to encourage investment and infrastructure investment.

Does my noble friend share my concerns and those that were voiced recently by Sir Mervyn King, the current Governor of the Bank of England, that one thing that is going to hold back growth in the economy is if the banks do not acknowledge the real state of their balance sheets and take the hits that they should?

[Lord Sassoon]

Again, I am grateful to my noble friend for her kind words. It is also important that the House recognises that the damage done by the fall in GDP as a consequence of the structural position and the mess left behind by the previous Government, combined with the financial crisis, continues to be assessed as worse and worse. As my noble friend said, it is now estimated to be a fall in GDP of an extraordinary 6.3%.

I also agree with my noble friend that it is important that the banks are realistic about the state of their balance sheets. Linking back to the debate on the Financial Services Bill that we had earlier this afternoon, it is important that the new Financial Policy Committee—up and running now for a period in shadow form—is beginning to get to grips with these issues. These sorts of things were never debated and put on the table by the authorities in the past, when the punchbowl should have been taken away. So my noble friend is completely right.

[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I also wish the Minister well for the future and add my concern to that expressed already about whether this mini-Budget will trigger the necessary growth. Specifically, with regard to the commitment in the Autumn Statement of £5.5 billion in additional infrastructure investment and the consequential £227 million additional capital funding available to the Welsh Government, will he confirm that that spending can be allocated as desired by the Welsh Government and does not need to follow the pattern of the £5.5 billion that has generated it? Will he also confirm that in the discussions that have taken place between the Treasury and the Welsh Government over recent weeks with regard to the enhanced capital allowance in enterprise zones, that is not assumed to be coming out of that money?

[Lord Sassoon]

I believe that I can confirm both points. The allocation will be for the Welsh Administration in the normal way. I believe that the noble Lord’s understanding on the second point is correct. If it is not, I will correct that understanding.

[Lord Flight]

My Lords, I add my own appreciation of the Minister’s work and success. He has always shown patience, attention to detail, wit and great courtesy and I, too, wish him success and fulfilment in whatever he does next.

The national plan has identified £200 billion of infrastructure investment in transport and communications and about another £200 billion for the energy sector. The financing of that is fairly readily available. For the sovereign wealth funds of the world, it is an attractive investment. I was amazed to find that even the Agricultural Bank of China is setting up in London and is dead keen to put up loan finance. Indeed, it is putting up the loan finance for the improvements to the main road between Edinburgh and Glasgow.

There are also pension funds—who wants to buy gilts at present yields when you might get 4%, 5% or 6% on an infrastructure project? The funding is there, but when I asked the Financial Secretary to the Treasury how much was likely to happen over the next three years, he could not give an answer. There are still delays caused by the way that the planning system works and because of environmental requirements. Now is just the time when this country needs to make those infrastructure investments and get a move on with them. Will the Government look at further measures that they can take to delay these bureaucratic constraints on the infrastructure investment getting going?

[Lord Sassoon]

I could spend the rest of the three minutes and a lot longer on this but I will be brief. Again, I am grateful to my noble friend for his remarks.

On how the infrastructure is funded, there is still a need for a large debt component in many of the projects, and the debt markets continue to be very difficult. My noble friend is completely right about the appetite of the sovereign wealth funds and I will be going to the Gulf again to visit a number of them next week. But the debt component remains difficult.

As to whether the investment is flowing through, total private and public investment in infrastructure is now running at £33 billion per year compared to an average of £29 billion per year under the previous Government—even with all the investment in social infrastructure that went on. While there is more to be done, that is an important number.

There are other areas, yes, where we need to make more progress. I draw my noble friend’s attention to the policy decisions on energy over the last week, which should now enable the energy markets and investors to invest in a broad sweep of nuclear, renewable and gas assets.

[Lord Hollick]

My Lords, I add my congratulations to the Minister. Optimistic he may be, but what remarkable chutzpah he and the Chancellor have shown on a day when they have missed all their key targets.

I wonder if he could help me with just a couple of points in the blizzard of information that we have had today. Is there any increasing demand as a result of the measures announced? As the Minister knows, demand is absolutely essential if we are to have growth and it would appear that the OBR has taken into account all the measures but has still downgraded significantly the growth over the next five years.

Secondly, in Annex B.1 of the Treasury document, the suggestion is that the bottom three deciles of the population will bear about three-quarters of the burden of the fiscal consolidation. In 2015-16, 96% of the reduction will be borne by cuts in welfare and public spending; only 4% will come from tax increases. That is rather different from the 80:20 the Chancellor talked about.

Finally, on the question of interesting accounting, the Autumn Statement includes receipt in the current financial year of £3.5 billion from the auction of the 4G spectrum, which is yet to take place. This receipt is apparently used in the current year to reduce the debt, but appears then to be used in the following financial year to finance spending plans. How can that be?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, first, the test of increase in demand will ultimately be the growth numbers. The OBR has set out its forecast of growth numbers and—I can only repeat—it is forecasting higher growth next year for the UK compared to countries such as France and Germany.

On the question of the distribution, I draw the attention of the noble Lord, Lord Hollick, to the new chart on the overall level of benefit and public spending receipts in the supplementary document, which shows that, contrary to what the noble Lord is saying, the overall result is significantly progressive across the quintiles.

The deficit reduction plan will continue to be on a 80:20 basis; in other words, with 80% of the deficit consolidation coming from spending reductions and only 20% from tax—just as it was before today. That has not changed. As far as the spectrum auction is concerned, the £3.5 billion has been certified by the OBR as its central estimate of the money that will be coming in this tax year.