Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [HL]

Lord Peston Excerpts

Wednesday 1st December 2010 Grand Committee

Moved by

[Lord Peston]

9: Schedule 1, page 11, line 13, at end insert “; and in making such nominations the Office will set out the role of the 2 or more members, including why they are needed.”

[Lord Peston]

Amendment 9 is grouped with Amendment 15, which my noble friend Lord Eatwell will speak to. I have discovered that the more work one does jointly, the more thoughts one has. Therefore, one or two things emerge from this amendment that had not occurred to me when I tabled it. I will mention what they are, but that does not necessarily mean that we should debate them today: we might save them for Report.

The amendment covers the role of the two or more other members. They are referred to in the Notes as non-experts. I had not thought through the implication, because the word is not used in the Bill, that the OBR people are the experts. At some point I shall try to find a way by which we can discuss the distinction between expert and non-expert. I assure the Minister that this is a probing amendment for elucidation. I am asking what the point is of having these people. Given that we have experts, what do they contribute? They cost money—I assume that they expect to be paid—and they will have to be serviced with briefings of all sorts. The point of the amendment is to ask generally why we need this class of member; and, secondly, if this is what the Bill intends and if we are to have them, to ask the OBR, which will want to appoint them: “Can you tell us why you need them in this broad category, and why you need these specific people?”. I was intrigued by the Notes saying explicitly that these people will not be experts.

My other point is that so far, the only thing that we have any practical experience of, given the operation of the OBR, is that these people are not experts in the sense that they are not economists. I assure the Committee that there are other experts in the world. One or two of my colleagues, particularly in the United States, believe that economics will develop into a universal science that will cover everything in the field of human knowledge. I do not hold that view. It seems to me that although the experts so far are economists, I can think of other areas of expertise that would class people as experts for the purposes of the Bill. I do not expect the Minister to talk about that today, but I will raise it on Report. Statisticians and businessmen have wide experience and could be classed as experts in this context. The point of this probing amendment is to seek enlightenment. I beg to move.

[Lord Eatwell]

My Lords, I want to speak to Amendment 15 in this group, which is tabled in my name and that of my noble friends Lord Davies and Lord Myners. The amendment seeks to provide a specific and important role for the non-expert members who, in the Explanatory Notes, are defined as non-executives. The role of the non-executives is very important indeed because, as we have already identified, the OBR is a strange beast. It is independent in an important way, or at least we hope it is, and yet it is an essential ingredient of policy-making within a particular department, mainly the Treasury. So it is not really a non-departmental public body as we know many independent bodies because it is very much part of the Treasury, and yet it is also very much not part of it. It is therefore important that we bolster the “not” side of that equation to ensure that not only is there the reality of independence in a way that I know the Government are seeking, but also the appearance of independence, which will be equally important, especially in more tempestuous political and economic times.

Amendment 15 seeks to clarify the role of the non-executives in a particular way. What is striking at the moment is that the non-executives have no role whatever except that of being involved in audit activity and the production of the annual report; otherwise, they simply make the tea for the experts. We want to give the non-executives a particular role, that of bolstering and supporting the independence side, let us call it, of the OBR. It will be done by requiring the office to include in its annual report an assessment of how the OBR and the Treasury have adhered to the terms of the OBR’s independence as set out in Clauses 5 and 6(2).

Noble Lords will recall that Clause 5 makes the particular point that not only does the OBR have “complete discretion” but, as set out in subsection (2):

“The Office must perform that duty objectively, transparently and impartially”.

One of the oddities of the draft charter is that it seeks to define the terms of Clause 5(2) which are perfectly well defined in the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon’s, favourite reference book, the Oxford English Dictionary. I do not see why we need any further definition, but we will come to that in a moment. The non-executives can comment on these provisions, but more especially they can comment on the provisions of Clause 6(2), which is the really crucial piece of independence in the Bill—the independence of method and of forecasting approach. That is because, as we discussed on Monday, the Treasury is to retain its own forecasting unit and the non-executives will have the responsibility of assessing whether the mutual influence between the two forecasting organisations compromises the OBR’s independence.

It is important that the Government should realise that forecasting organisations influence each other to a considerable degree in respect of introducing new and different ideas, concepts, judgments and methodologies. Moreover, first-class forecasting units interact with one another. That is absolutely inevitable at any level of serious intellectual endeavour. For example, in economic forecasting, the very method used can have a significant influence on outcome, and unwarranted influence on the outcome can be exerted as much by a debate over method as over judgment.

The role of the non-execs is simply to stand there as defenders of the independent side of the OBR, and we could give them the responsibility of reporting on that independence in their annual report. They would then have a specific, valuable and important role.

I admit that Amendment 9, tabled by my noble friend, is cast in much more general terms, but I think that it is seeking to achieve the same ends. It is seeking to define a role for the non-executives. I suggest that the statutory role that we are suggesting—as guardians of the independence of the OBR—will be of enormous value to the Government, to Governments in future and to the organisation itself.

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[Lord Peston]

My Lords, will the Minister clarify one or two of his remarks? I got a bit lost. I think I am right that he is now saying that the real distinction is exec versus non-exec, not expert versus non-expert, so we have moved on from the Explanatory Notes on those clauses to something different. Do I therefore understand that the non-execs could include people who would be regarded as experts?

My second question, and I blame myself for this as I did not emphasise it in my opening remarks, concerns the rubric in the Bill, “two or more”. I meant to ask: what is the point of “or more”? Two seems a lot. Why have the Government not been able to make up their mind what they think the right number is? I was very puzzled by that. I would have thought that two, full stop, would be enough. Certainly, if I were doing this, I would say, “If we’re going to have to have these people, a couple of them are fine”, but I do not see where the “or more” comes in, unless we go along with my noble friend Lord Eatwell that the two that we have turn out not to be able to make tea and we need a third one for that purpose.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, in answer to the first question, to be clear again, it is certainly the case that there is a group which is executive and expert and then there is a second group, described at the moment in the Bill as “non-expert”, which is also non-executive. That second group could be experts, there is nothing to rule that out, but the point is that they do not have to be experts; they should, however, be sufficiently independently minded, supportive and challenging of the executive expert members.

We have put in “two or more” because at the moment we think that the remit of the OBR and the construct should be perfectly sufficient and workable for robust government arrangements. That is the minimum number. To have one non-exec would put that individual in an impossible position; two gets you to the minimum. If the OBR’s remit were somehow to develop in an unanticipated way, it might be appropriate to modestly expand the number of non-exec non-experts, but that is not the intention at the moment.

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[Lord Eatwell]

As I have said, I understand that; but when you are in the executive position, as the very distinguished people you have been lucky enough to attract to run the OBR are, it is very easy, because you have to get the report out and do things, to be so immersed in the incredible pressures that you slip across boundaries. If non-execs are there, like a non-executive chairman with a chief executive, they could help with guidance and prevent that slip happening. If we give the non-execs this particular role, it will not only bolster the appearance of independence of the OBR—which is valuable in itself—but provide an important check in reality. Including that duty in the Bill would be so serious that I do not think that serious people would treat it in a formulaic manner.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his clarifications, particularly in relation to the application of the exec versus non-exec issue. My noble friend Lord Eatwell has made a powerful case and I am glad that the Minister will at least reflect on how independence will work. Even though one felt very frustrated on Monday by the Minister’s refusal to give a much bigger role to the House of Lords, I can assure him that as long as I am alive, I and my noble friend Lord Barnett will find many a way of making sure that the OBR is subject to the kind of criticism that will ensure that, whatever else it is, it is definitely independent.

Having said that, I would like to come back to the question of expertise, but that can wait until Report. I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

Amendment 9 withdrawn.

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[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I am quite puzzled by this amendment because we are moving into unusual territory. We believe it absolutely right for the Treasury Committee to have a veto over the role of the chairman, but it is almost unprecedented for Parliament or parliamentary committees to have such roles at all, let alone over non-executive members. One of very few other appointments that is subject to a parliamentary veto of the sort provided for in this Bill is that of the Comptroller and Auditor-General.

In terms of the non-executives, I do not share the analysis of the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, in terms of expertise. I shall come back to the other constitutionally substantive point, which is that we are not talking about experts in this area in any sense but about those who will bring independence of mind and who will challenge and support. That is potentially a much wider field of candidates. So I think that such appointments would rest on the relatively narrow point about what the Treasury could bring to bear, and actually I do not think that it would have anything special to bring to this. The wider point to be made here is that we would be moving into new and extraordinarily different territory. To take one broadly similar example, the non-executive members of the board of the UK Statistics Authority are appointed by the Minister for the Cabinet Office after consulting with the chair of the UK Statistics Authority. So we are following a perfectly respectable precedent.

In answer to the question of why the names that are being considered for the non-expert, non-executive role should be nominated by the OBR, again we want to strike a balance between appointment by the responsible Minister, who is the Chancellor, while not leaving it entirely to the Chancellor and the Treasury to come up with names. So again there is a perfectly well precedented route by which the authority concerned has a role in identifying candidates. That would include the Debt Management Office, the Crown Estate Office, the museums, the Natural Environment Research Council—I could go on.

Our suggestion in the Bill for how this should work is well-worn territory; there is nothing so different about the role of these non-execs. We have already had some questions about how substantive the role is, but there is nothing that takes the roles of these non-execs into remotely different territory from the role of non-execs in a lot of other well functioning bodies in the broader public sector, and we have broadly followed the appointment processes in those other areas. I am genuinely puzzled by this amendment and do not believe that it would add anything to the strength of the OBR governance arrangements.

[Lord Peston]

Perhaps I may indicate one thought that has occurred to me, which the Minister might like to reflect on. It follows on from what my noble friend Lord Eatwell said: namely, that there is an enormous benefit to be gained if these people have been scrutinised. I do not believe that in practice it would occur very often, if at all, that the names brought forward were rejected, but a committee—which, one hopes, did not operate politically, such as the Treasury Select Committee; certainly the Economic Affairs of your Lordships’ House has never done so—might say, “We approve of these people; they’re just the people we need to help safeguard the independence”, which my noble friend Lord Eatwell has emphasised in this context and before. It is worth reflecting on whether that would be helpful in a body that is very different from any body that I can think of that has been set up in my time to consider economic policy-making.

There is an old adage, “Never do anything for the first time”, but that is what this body is doing, whether we think that that is good or bad. I would have thought that the Minister might like to reflect at least a little on the point that there would be positive benefits from going down the path that my noble friend suggests.

[Lord Desai]

I am sorry, my Lords, I did not speak in the Second Reading debate or on Monday. The point here is about trust. The Government have set up an institution that in its early days suffered from a bit of a problem of trust. I think that that was an accident, not the fault of the OBR itself. Whatever the Government can do to establish trust in the body would help them enormously. As my noble friend Lord Peston said, this is an innovation, a very good one, and perhaps it would strengthen it to do something, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell has suggested, to say that this is not like any other public sector body but is vital to the conduct of economic policy by the Government and to the perception of that policy. If the Minister can do something to assuage the trust deficit that we have here, it would be helpful.

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[Lord Myners]

I agree with those comments. However, the duties described in Clause 5(2) are subject to guidance given under Clause 6(1)(b), which slightly diminishes the confidence and reliance we can place on Clause 5(2).

I support the intention of this clause, but cannot bring myself to support the wording of the amendment. The majority of the staff of the OBR, certainly until quite recently, were former Treasury officials, and the majority are doing work that is very similar to the work that they were doing before the establishment of the interim OBR—work that they are now allowed to appear to criticise through the OBR. They are still in the Treasury building, they are still going to the excellent Treasury canteen for their subsidised lunches and they are still entitled to belong to the Treasury choir and the Treasury glee club. They have not left the Treasury. What we are seeking to achieve is appropriate distancing—but not at the cost of denying the OBR the best people to do the job. It is not unreasonable to assume that currently at least some of them will be working in the Treasury.

The difficulty that I have with the drafting of the amendment is the reference to “transferred temporarily”. “Temporarily” assumes some knowledge of the future. I see a situation in which somebody may go from the Treasury to the OBR and later return to the Treasury without that necessarily having been planned. There must be clear severance in employment terms: it must be quite clear that staff have left the Treasury and are now employed by the OBR. The independent, non-executive directors should keep a particularly close focus on where people are recruited from and where they go afterwards, in order to make sure that the effectiveness and credibility of the body is not diminished by a greater flow between the Treasury and the OBR than common sense might justify. However, I cannot bring myself to support the amendment as it is drafted.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, I am not in the least concerned about the precise drafting of amendments, because all our proceedings in Committee are exploratory. The central point is that the staff of the OBR should be simply the staff of the OBR—end of story. It needs to be made clear that they are not other staff. The purpose of the amendment is to say categorically that these staff are now the staff of the OBR. I take it for granted that they will be full-time rather than part-time staff. This has nothing to do with the chairman or others choosing the best people; it is to do with the status of the staff. That is all the amendment is about. They should be the staff of the OBR and therefore, unless the law is changed, they will not be the staff of the Treasury or of anywhere else. My noble friend Lord Barnett and I would like a simple answer from the Minister. Are the staff the staff of the OBR? That can be answered with a yes or no.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, perhaps I may ask the noble Lord, Lord Peston, a quick question. Is he opposed to any staff going on secondment from the Treasury to the OBR?

[Lord Peston]

Yes, categorically. The Bill refers to them as the staff of the OBR. We can argue about language, but if somebody asks who my staff are, I say, “He works for me and so does he. They are on my budget and they are my staff”. Sorry, I should have said “she”. If someone said to me, “Actually, they are not, they are Treasury officials on secondment,” I would not regard that as a correct use of the words “my staff”. The Minister may agree with the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, that the point made by my noble friend Lord Barnett and me does not matter, and may be perfectly happy for them to be on secondment, work part time and so on. If that is the position, I would like to know. My position is that an independent body appoints its own staff, and they are its staff.

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[Lord Turnbull]

My Lords, I am amazed at the sheer unrealism of the proposition of the noble Lord, Lord Peston. If this is enacted, there will be a major crisis in the organisation. Around 20 people will have to take a decision whether to resign from the Treasury or quit the OBR and go back to the Treasury. That is something we could absolutely do without. The initial staff in large majority are secondees. We have not complained about their work. We did not say that the report produced last week was ineffective or that we did not trust it because the staff are seconded. The noble Lord is imposing something that will be damaging to the credibility of the organisation and will make it much more difficult to attract people of the quality it needs. As I have said, a major problem will be created immediately if such a proposition is enacted.

[Lord Peston]

I did not create this problem. I did not set this body up. Unlike all other noble Lords present, I do not happen to be much in favour of it, but that is another matter. The fact is that our duty in this House, when a piece of legislation is going through, is to make it better. That is our role. So this is not my responsibility, but my point is that if we are going to have such a body, whose essence is its independence, if it turns out that the staff are secondees, that undermines its independence. It will not be independent any more.

[Lord Burns]

I support my noble friend Lord Turnbull and the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes. This amendment is totally unrealistic. To imagine that one should bar secondees from this kind of activity is extraordinary. There can be no real career structure within the OBR. There are specific sets of jobs and there will be little potential for advancement. It is bound to provide activities that people will take on for a certain period, after which they will move on to do something else. Inevitably, they will wish to hold on to their employment in a department which actually offers them the possibility of a career structure.

I think that the noble Lord hugely underestimates the independent-mindedness of many civil servants. During my time in the Treasury, and I am sure subsequent to that, we had many secondees from other departments who would work in our expenditure divisions. They would work effectively in support of the Treasury by running, very often, the expenditure policies relating to the departments from which they had been seconded. I had no difficulty with this. Indeed, when I first joined the Treasury, my noble friend Lord Kerr was on secondment from the Foreign Office to the Treasury in order to carry out the expenditure work of the MoD. These are everyday, bread-and-butter activities for civil servants, and I am confident that they can work very effectively.

Clearly there would be a problem if the executive members of the OBR were on secondment from the Treasury, but I assume that that is not what is in mind and that the mechanisms which have been put in place in terms of their appointments will safeguard against that. However, we must be realistic about these arrangements. As long as the senior people in the OBR are appointed under the correct processes so that they are independent, it should be for them to recruit the people who they think can carry out the tasks most effectively. To surround that with lots of restrictions is not only unrealistic but, as my noble friend Lord Turnbull said, very damaging.

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[Lord Peston]

Perhaps I may interrupt the noble Lord. Do his numbers include secretaries, computer programmers and all the ancillary staff, or is he talking about frontline staff? I do not see how the OBR has managed to do any work at all if it does not have lots of ancillary staff. Am I wrong in that?

[Lord Sassoon]

No, the noble Lord is right. The figure is the total number of staff.

[Lord Peston]

That figure of 13 includes secretaries, PAs and computer programmers?

[Lord Sassoon]

I cannot give a breakdown of exactly what they all do, although it would be possible to do so. The office no doubt buys in all sorts of services, but that is the total number of staff. As I said, I believe that Robert Chote intends that when the office is totally established there will be about 20 full-time staff. That is the number that he believes will be needed.

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[Lord Peston]

My Lords, there are three amendments in the group, but I want first to say a brief word about the amendment spoken to by my noble friend Lord Barnett. I am intrigued by what is set out in the Bill: the setting up of a committee or sub-committee that may consist of or include persons who are neither members of the office nor members of the staff. I asked myself what this could possibly be about. The Minister decided that he did not like that by quoting the most trivial example he could have dreamed up, and went on to say that they might have set up a committee to deal with personnel matters and that that should not be known. I do not see why that should not be known; transparency means transparency, it does not mean “transparency but”. I want to know what serious argument the Minister could possibly put forward to explain why the office is not obliged to let us know if it sets up a committee. I had assumed that we were talking about a committee of experts on optimal forecasting methods and that sort of thing. We need a more serious response from the Minister.

A fortiori, the amendment tabled by my noble friend Lord Myners requires a serious reply. If you believe in transparency, would there be any circumstances why the minutes of the Budget Responsibility Committee should not only be published but be made available to the public at the same time as they are made available to the members of the committee? Both of those are matters of significance.

I come now to the third amendment in the group, just to say that it is also important. My noble friend Lord Barnett will enlarge on it in a moment, but again I hope that we are given a serious answer, rather than a trivial example to explain why the Minister does not like it.

[Lord Barnett]

I shall say a word about Amendment 34. It seeks to provide that:

“The Office will place in the public domain a record of all meetings with the Chancellor … and other ministers”.

When I tabled a Question for Written Answer on this matter for the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, he asked Robert Chote to answer it. Mr Chote has duly written to me and I shall quote from it:

“We will be publishing a list of contacts between the OBR and ministers, special advisers and their private offices shortly after each autumn and Budget forecast, beginning with our forthcoming forecast on November 29th”.

I do not know when the list is going to be published and I have not seen it, but it is clear that regular formal or informal meetings with the Chancellor and other Ministers are a very important matter for an independent forecaster, one that is not available to our other 50-odd forecasters. So I hope we will have an answer to this very soon. That is the whole purpose of Amendment 34.

I shall not add to my remarks because I am trying hard to curtail my contributions so that we get to the target figure of amendments that the Government want to see dealt with. But far be it from me to prevent Members of the Committee speaking.

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[Baroness Noakes]

Is this a letter that only the noble Lord has received from my noble friend the Minister?

[Lord Peston]

We have all been given one. They are over there.

[Lord Higgins]

Has my noble friend now got a copy?

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[Lord Peston]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, put his finger on the central issue that we debated at some length on Monday and on which I have since had a chance to reflect. The Government seem to be taking two positions. One is that it is possible to separate economic policymaking from economic forecasting. I used to lecture on this subject and I can say categorically that that is simply nonsense. I cannot believe that any serious economist would accept that the two can be separated. In fact, the correct position is entirely the opposite. The optimal macroeconomic policy and the optimal macroeconomic forecast are part and parcel of the same piece of economic analysis. That enables one to focus, first, on the major difference between some of us and the Government on this matter.

The second position, again echoing the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, is that however we define sustainability—several of us could try and I will have a go at it when we get to Report—the presumption that one should not make, and indeed economics tells us that exactly the reverse is the case, is that there is one unique state of government finances that is sustainable, rather than a multiplicity of such states. Therefore we must not make the error of assuming that there is only one sustainable policy, whatever the definition is.

Finally, since Monday I have had a chance to read the Economic and fiscal outlook. It reminds me of a debate that has been going on in economics for about 100 years, which is normally encapsulated in the phrase “measurement without theory”. The great Nobel prizewinning economist attacked the founders of the National Bureau of Economic Research because they were great believers in measuring, but in doing so without theory. I am in a tiny minority here because I do not think much of this report as a piece of economics. It is an example of economic forecasting without theory, and that is really not the way to do it. So my intervention is to make it clear that we need some clarification from the Government, and what we need to accept that there are many possible policies that might be pursued, along with many sustainable positions.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I regard the question of sustainability as very important, so much so that although I will give a brief definition, because I have been asked what the Government mean by it, the critical issue for the OBR is concerned is that it should have an unfettered ability to look at sustainability in its broadest sense. I see that the noble Lord, Lord Peston, is nodding in agreement. The main objective here is not to constrain the OBR by giving it some sort of government laid-down definition of sustainability—there is more nodding, for which I am grateful—so while I can give my own overview definition of sustainability, that rather misses the point. Sustainability is part of the Treasury’s overall fiscal policy objectives, and to the Government, the sustainability of the public finances means putting them on a footing from which they can withstand shocks. It means keeping the deficit down so that debt does not spiral out of control. That is the fundamental of it, and it is the Treasury’s responsibility to make policy that supports sustainable public finances. That would be my overview of where we start.

The important point is that the OBR should take this matter away. It seems to have indicated that this is not an easy thing to do, and has already made that clear in its remarks both in the Pre-Budget forecast earlier this year and in the November document, the Economic and fiscal outlook. The OBR talks about what it has done, and critically it says that it will examine the issue of sustainability in detail in the fiscal sustainability report due next summer. That is at paragraph 5.25 on page 140 of the latest document. There is a section on sustainability and, indeed, a chapter on fiscal sustainability, including, on page 55 of the pre-Budget forecast document, lots of complicated equations that are beyond my grasp of economics. The OBR is already, quite rightly, beginning to analyse this. It recognises that a lot more analysis is to be done, including looking at the implications of a number of relevant government policy areas and reviews. It has set all that out. The critical thing here is that we make sure that the OBR is allowed to do that unfettered.

I would not necessarily want to constrain the OBR in the way suggested by Amendment 27. I am sympathetic to the principle, because I think that it absolutely has to explain the context of any work that it does on sustainability.

[Lord Peston]

The amendment is not meant to constrain the OBR; it simply asks it to tell us what it has in mind, which I think is what the Minister is saying.

[Lord Sassoon]

Indeed. The question is: what is appropriate to put in the legislation? There is an element here of risking treating the OBR inappropriately by telling it to do things that are clearly already self-evident to the OBR, in that it has already started to make significant comments on sustainability but is not rushing to final conclusions or making it the subject of a separate major piece of work. Therefore I am absolutely sympathetic to the principle but I am not sure that we should get into the game of writing down everything that the OBR is to do. The question this provokes in my mind is whether anything more should be said about this point in the charter. If there is any more to be said, it should be in the charter, and it is in that context that I should like to reflect on the substance of Amendment 27.

Amendment 18 makes an explicit link between the OBR and the Treasury’s objectives and mandate. I absolutely agree that it is important for the OBR to work in the context of these objectives and the mandate. Therefore, the purpose behind my noble friend’s amendment is entirely appropriate but I am a little concerned that, taken particularly with Amendment 30, it would not provide sufficient protection to keep the OBR out of what could become broader and politicised debates about policy scenarios.

I have thought about this carefully. I believe that the current design achieves a balance for the broad remit for the OBR with a sufficiently clear focus on government policy, and any amendment in this area would need to ensure that that careful balance was protected. I am worried that the amendment might challenge that. As I said, I believe that the substance of what is intended is already in the Bill. I very much took to heart the words of noble Lords on this area at Second Reading, including those of the noble Lord, Lord Burns, who noted the importance of the OBR not being drawn into wider political debates and not opining on alternative policy options. We have to keep the OBR focused on the fact that its forecast has to be of the economic policies that have been decided by the Government. However, we should not through inappropriate drafting risk taking the OBR into debates about the policy itself.

I shall continue to think carefully about whether we have got the balance right, but I hope my noble friend understands that we may risk drawing the OBR into something wider than I suspect he intends. I ask him to withdraw the amendment.