Barnett Formula

Lord Peston Excerpts

Monday 3rd November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, as the noble Lord knows, a very significant review of funding in Wales was undertaken by Gerry Holtham, which suggested that Wales would be getting a fair degree of funding if it was approximately 114% of that in England or more—I believe that that is the right figure. I believe that, certainly this year and next year, that figure will be met.

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend for his Question, with which I know for a fact that my noble friend Lord Barnett was in total agreement. I also thank the Minister for his kind remarks, because he might be forgiven for thinking that one of Lord Barnett’s missions in life was to make his life a total misery. Lord Barnett will be remembered for his formula, but those of us in this House will surely remember that he contributed to a vast number of other topics and therefore deserves to be remembered for all that as well. I think we all agree that he will be missed much more than, perhaps, some of us when our time comes.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I absolutely agree with the noble Lord that Lord Barnett was a formidable parliamentarian across a range of subjects.

Bank of England

Lord Peston Excerpts

Thursday 30th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

Quite, my Lords. The Financial Services Act gave the Bank of England new powers in this area. It is conducting an investigation to see what happened in that unfortunate case and what lessons can be learned for the future.

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

I congratulate my noble friend for raising this Question, but I am sorry to say that I disagree with him. Changing the name of the Bank of England would be economically very damaging to our country. Is the Minister aware that there is a lesson to be drawn from this? It is mainly that making constitutional changes on the hoof is not the right way to do this sort of thing. The next time he sees his right honourable friend the Prime Minister, will he tell him that the way to go on in this area is to think before you speak and not the other way round?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, whatever one can say about the history of constitutional change in the UK, it has not been characterised by great speed. While there is now considerable urgency in dealing with consequential constitutional change in both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom, it will require a commitment by many people across all parties to bring that about—which in the past has been conspicuously lacking.

Tax: Aggressive Tax Avoidance

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Wednesday 9th July 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Barnett]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their definition of aggressive tax avoidance; and what specific examples they can instance.

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

My Lords, on behalf of my noble friend Lord Barnett, and at his request, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in his name on the Order Paper.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, the Government have taken a wide range of actions to tackle all forms of tax avoidance. The general anti-abuse rule, which this Government introduced, specifically seeks to tackle abusive tax-avoidance schemes. HMRC has provided examples of the arrangements that will be captured under this rule in its very detailed published guidance. A further example of aggressive tax avoidance is detailed on the front page of today’s Times.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, the reason that your Lordships are stuck with me and not my noble friend is that he is very ill indeed, and I know that all noble Lords will wish to send wishes that he recovers quickly.

[Noble Lords]

Hear, hear.

[Lord Peston]

In particular so that he can occupy his usual place and ask some really difficult questions.

In so far as I understand this subject at all, is it not the case that aggressive tax avoidance leaves companies making enormous sums of money and millionaires paying lower rates of tax than those with average or around average incomes? Does this not bring the whole tax system in our country into disrepute? How urgently are the Government trying to deal with aggressive tax avoidance, with a view to punishing those who do it?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, first of all I ask the noble Lord to pass on my good wishes and, I am sure, those of the whole House to his noble friend.

The Government take this issue extremely seriously. We have invested additionally in this area more than £1 billion over the spending review period, and taken on another 2,500 staff to work on it. The compliance yield that flowed from this work in the past year was £23.9 billion—the highest ever—and we have increased the number of people being prosecuted for tax crime to 2,600 in this Parliament, which has resulted in 2,700 years of jail sentences.

Economy: Interest Rates

Lord Peston Excerpts

Wednesday 18th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, that is an important point. As I said in answer to the earlier question, any increase in interest rates is likely to be gradual and to reach a new equilibrium that is lower than it was in the past. It is worth saying that mortgage payments are at a historically low level in terms of proportion of income, and that rates would have to rise by 4% to get to the 2007 proportion of income. Nobody, I think, whether it is the Bank of England or independent experts, has suggested that interest rates are likely to rise by that much in the foreseeable future.

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

My Lords, to place this important Question in context, is it the Government’s view that there are two possible aims of economic policy: the first is that we should maintain as high a rate of real, sustainable growth as is feasible, and the second is that we should maintain a stable, low inflation rate? Bearing in mind that those two objectives are not always compatible, what is the Government’s view of what the policymakers ought to be doing at the moment?

Finance: Interest Rates

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 18th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

No, my Lords, I do not think it is. You cannot control both. One of the interesting things about the large depreciation in the pound is that it did not have the impact on the balance of payments that people expected. The rate of exchange is only one of many variables that determine how competitive and successful exports are. All the evidence is that it is not quite as important a determinant as used to be thought.

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

My Lords, as background to this Question, we should remember that when we were debating the 1998 Act the Minister went to great lengths to emphasise that the activities of the Monetary Policy Committee would be scrutinised not only by other place but also by this House. Certainly, when I was chairman of the Economic Affairs Committee—a committee I invented, as the Minister is well aware—we used to see the Governor of the Bank of England regularly. All that is background to a very simple question: when was the last time that the Governor of the Bank of England went to the Economic Affairs Committee and was scrutinised by it?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I am afraid that I do not read the papers of the Economic Affairs Committee as assiduously as I should, and I cannot quite remember. My recollection from reading them from time to time is that the governor still goes, although not as frequently as when the noble Lord set up the committee. The committee was established specifically to review the workings of the Monetary Policy Committee; it was not an Economic Affairs Committee—I had the honour of sitting on it with the noble Lord. Although the governor does not come to the committee as frequently as he used to, he still does come—but I shall write to the noble Lord to tell him when the last time was.

Economic Inequality

Lord Peston Excerpts

Monday 10th February 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

My Lords, I must apologise to your Lordships for being an economist and for allowing some economics to get into an economics question. Is the Minister aware of the research evidence on these matters, which is that we need some inequality in our society in order to provide a proper incentive system? However, it is possible—and it is almost certainly the case in our country—that we have far too much inequality, which is a disincentive to economic growth. The Government do not seem to understand that, but when the Labour Government take over next year they will understand it and will deal with the matter.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, that is no doubt why we inherited such rosy economic circumstances.

Bank of England: Monetary Policy Committee

Lord Peston Excerpts

Monday 14th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

As the noble Lord says, the governor is now looking at unemployment in terms of when interest rates might change, but there is no iron rule that the moment unemployment rates hit 7%, interest rates will go up. There are three potential arguments which would mitigate against that, of which by far the most important is if the outlook for inflation was higher. As to when we might reach 7%, in August when the Bank of England published its report suggesting this, it thought it would be in the third quarter of 2016. The good news is that since then the economy has grown more quickly, and the consensus is now settling around summer 2015.

[Lord Peston (Lab)]

My Lords, will the Minister cast his mind back to when your Lordships debated what is now the Bank of England Act? My noble friend Lord Barnett and I put down an amendment precisely to achieve the flexibility which is in this command paper. We were not told that the flexibility was already there, which is what the command paper says. We were told that we were idiots, and that the remit of the Monetary Policy Committee was to hit the inflation target—only after that could it look at anything else. The Government have produced a sleight of hand here. I favour it, let me add, but it is a sleight of hand.

Will the noble Lord consider the central question which arises in this context, bearing in mind that the two greatest liberal thinkers of the 20th century, Lord Beveridge and Maynard Keynes, both placed the attainment of full employment at the centre of government macroeconomic policy? Can the noble Lord tell us whether under the new regimen that we are now offered, there is any hope within my lifetime—younger Members may have something more to look forward to—that we shall at last get back to what those two great thinkers said: full employment is a must?

Economy: GDP Forecast

Lord Peston Excerpts

Monday 29th July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, it is worth reminding the House that in the financial year 2011-12 the net debt was £1,106 billion. On current plans, by 2017-18, when the percentage of GDP starts to fall, it will be £1,637 billion, so the noble Lord makes a valid point.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that research evidence shows categorically that if you want to get the debt to GDP ratio down, the vital ingredient is to increase the rate of growth of GDP? That is the way to do it. Measures such as raising taxes or cutting the deficit by cutting large chunks of public expenditure simply do not work. Overall, the lesson we have to learn is that an austerity package is not required; a package concentrating on raising GDP is the correct policy.

[Lord Newby]

I am sure that the noble Lord will therefore have been very pleased to have seen the growth figures last week. I point out to the House that a key factor in growth is the level of interest that people have to pay and that, as a result of the Government’s decisive action in 2010, interest rates have fallen compared with the forecast, as a result of which we will, by 2015-16, have paid £31 billion less in interest payments than was expected in 2010-11.

G8: Eurozone and UK Growth

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 2nd July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

I am extremely grateful to my noble friend for that suggestion, which I shall pass on to my ministerial colleagues in the Treasury.

[Lord Peston]

I know I do not have to tell the noble Lord not to count chickens, and I know I do not have to remind him that good news may be good news but let us wait for things actually to happen. However, to be serious about this subject, surely what is needed is for Britain to get back on to its long-term sustainable rate of growth and, better still, to raise that long-term sustainable rate of growth. Neither of those things can possibly happen for the next three years, despite what the noble Lord opposite said about supporting current policies. Would it not be a good thing if, instead of the individual countries of Europe all going their own separate ways, we at long last had, as was intended when we set up the Common Market, a joint European economic policy? I think that that would lead to major growth throughout this continent.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Government support the efforts being made within the eurozone to develop closer economic co-ordination and they obviously also support some of the measures announced at the last EU summit, which will, to a limited extent, support the combating of youth unemployment.

Sterling: Exchange Rate

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 25th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

The UK exchange rate has fallen by about 20% since 2007. It was hoped that that would give a big stimulus to exports; it has given some, but not as much as we would have liked. On China, our trade to China over the past three years has increased by 76%. In April, for the first time, trade in goods to China reached £1 billion in a month. The access to China is proving rather better than the access to some other countries.

[Lord Peston]

I congratulate the noble Lord on his answer, which seems to me for once to be entirely right. The exchange rate did collapse but it had no noticeable effect on improving the balance of payments, as he said, because the supply side of our economy has not been able to respond. Apart from that—theoretically—we do not know whether it is the balance of payments that affects the exchange rate, the exchange rate that affects the balance of payments, or whether it is the two interacting. In other words, we do not know very much about this at all. A sensible Government will therefore concentrate on trying to improve the supply side of the economy and leave the exchange rate to go where it will.