Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [HL]

Lord Higgins Excerpts

Wednesday 1st December 2010 Grand Committee

[Lord Eatwell]

A peculiarity of Schedule 1 as drafted is that the members of the committee who are required to have the relevant skills we have talked about are also required to obtain the consent of the Treasury Committee of the other place, whereas the non-execs are not. This is peculiar and unfortunate because, while there is a clear template against which to measure the members of the committee—they must have a suitable professional status within the economics profession, and especially within economic forecasting—the non-execs require a wider skill set. It would be inappropriate to spell out a particular skill set—even though my noble friend Lord Peston wants it in the Bill—because that is best assessed by the Treasury Committee and, if we wish to add it, the Economic Affairs Committee of your Lordships’ House.

What kind of things do we want? We want independence, experience, commitment, a clear interest in the issues at hand and an understanding—although not necessarily a high level of expertise—of the strengths and weaknesses of economic forecasting. We also want political independence, or at least political balance, within the structure of the non-execs. The Treasury Committee, which covers a multitude of sins, has the expertise to evaluate that kind of skill set. That is why Amendment 10 seeks to apply the kind of rigour and general assessment to the appointment of the non-execs as is applied to the appointment of the committee. I beg to move.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, I am a little worried about the remark “covering a multitude of sins” as I was chairman of the Treasury Select Committee in the other place for about 14 years—in fact, probably for most of the time that it has been in existence.

[Lord Eatwell]

If the noble Lord and the right reverend Prelate will allow me to explain, I was using the term in the same way as the Church of England covers a multitude of sins.

[Lord Higgins]

It will be interesting to know the Minister’s view on that one. I support the noble Lord in the view he has expressed. I welcome the fact that sub-paragraphs 1(1)(a) and (b) of Schedule 1 both require the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons to be involved. As I said at Second Reading, I think it is true to say that this is the first time that a Treasury committee in this sort of role has ever appeared in legislation. But like the noble Lord who moved the amendment, I am puzzled as to why the Treasury Committee should be involved in the case of the first two groups and not in the case of the third. It seems appropriate that it should be involved in all three. It is certainly appropriate that it should be involved in the appointment of the chairman, because the chairman plays a crucial role between the parliamentary side of things and the Executive nowadays, so that is very good.

I also remain puzzled as to why, under sub-paragraph (c) of Schedule 1, the two members are to be nominated by the OBR and then appointed by the Chancellor, whereas those under sub-paragraphs (a) and (b) are simply appointed by the Chancellor. No doubt the Minister can explain why the OBR should be in the nomination of the third group.

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[Lord Desai]

I am sorry, my Lords, I did not speak in the Second Reading debate or on Monday. The point here is about trust. The Government have set up an institution that in its early days suffered from a bit of a problem of trust. I think that that was an accident, not the fault of the OBR itself. Whatever the Government can do to establish trust in the body would help them enormously. As my noble friend Lord Peston said, this is an innovation, a very good one, and perhaps it would strengthen it to do something, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell has suggested, to say that this is not like any other public sector body but is vital to the conduct of economic policy by the Government and to the perception of that policy. If the Minister can do something to assuage the trust deficit that we have here, it would be helpful.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, I agree with the point that has just been made. It is true, as the Minister has said, that we are breaking new ground here, but the other bodies to which he referred are very different from this one, which is unique. I would have thought that the case for having the whole board approved by the Treasury Select Committee gave greater weight to the committee’s authority and would certainly make the committee, which is going to be dealing with this whole issue a great deal, more acceptable to it in future proceedings. I am not clear why the Minister objects to adding this.

[The Lord Bishop of Chester]

My Lords, it would be a great mistake to regard being opposed to sin as the sole prerogative of the Church of England. I hope that the whole Committee is opposed to sin.

I have some sympathy with the Minister on this. My problem with this part of the schedule is that it feels too in-house to me—too much the same. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is involved in the appointments and perhaps the Select Committee will be involved. I should have thought that the office needs a certain amount of diversity; its independence requires a greater diversity. It strikes me that the schedule is too tightly constrained as it is and to constrain it further by saying that the Select Committee of the other place has to be involved each time feels odd. I would almost expect the Governor of the Bank of England to nominate a member. We need a greater sense of diversity and independence in what is supposed to be an arm’s-length body. This body is in danger of not being sufficiently arm’s length from government. On that ground alone, I support the Minister’s resistance. However, I have a problem in that the whole thing seems a bit too in-house as it is.

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[Lord Sassoon]

I hope that I can be helpful on that point. The Government expect the appointment process for the BRC to match up to the high standards of public appointments. A bespoke appointment process has been put in place for the BRC executive members involving advertising, independent involvement in the interview process and so on, and that process has been designed to be open and transparent. It is up to the OBR to design the process for the non-executive members but we would also expect that to be open and in line with the principle of transparency. We have high expectations of the quality of the process and I hope that that gives the noble Lord some comfort.

[Lord Higgins]

Am I to understand that the Treasury Select Committee said that it wanted to be involved in the appointment of the chairman and executive members but that it did not want to be involved in the appointment of the non-executive members? If so, that seems a rather extraordinary position to take, but I will accept whatever the Minister says.

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Moved by

[Lord Higgins]

11: Schedule 1, page 13, line 21, at end insert—
“( ) The Office shall not be located in the Treasury.”

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, the theme running through all our proceedings has been that the OBR shall be seen to be independent. In that context, its forecasts in particular need to be independent. It would appear that, despite what may be a possible solution, the Treasury will continue to make forecasts at the same time as the OBR is making them, and it will be extremely difficult for everyone to believe that there has not been any degree of collusion if in fact the office is located in the Treasury itself.

This is a simple amendment. It may be that the Minister will happily say right away, “It’s clear anyway from the clause, since the OBR apparently owns property in the context of this amendment’s location. There is not the slightest question of it being located in the Treasury”—in which case we can let the matter rest. I hope that that is so. I beg to move.

[Lord Barnett]

My Lords, it is really all about perception. We all know Robert Chote, the chairman; I respect him and believe him to be truly independent. Being based in the Treasury, with everything that that means, would clearly be wrong, but on the other hand I read recently—I do not know whether this is right—that the OBR was looking for premises outside. It may already have found them, so this amendment may not be necessary. Perhaps the Minister can tell us.

[Lord Myners]

I do not think we can allow it to go unnoticed that the Minister, in his reference to “shoe leather”, assumed that the OBR would be called to the Treasury. I hope that the OBR will be sufficiently independent to call the Treasury to visit it at its own offices. I hope that the Minister is not conveying a subconscious message to us on that point.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, on one occasion when the Government that the late Iain Macleod was opposing accepted an amendment, his response was, “You don’t shoot Santa Claus”. Perhaps that is an appropriate reaction in this instance. I am delighted to hear what the Minister has said.

[Lord Eatwell]

Before the noble Lord finishes, I should like to comment. I really am having road-to-Damascus experiences today; I now think that this is rather important, although I did not when we started. Yes, the OBR is moving out, but the point is that this is a Bill to establish that body for the long term. The Minister has said that it is up to the OBR to decide where it goes. Let us suppose that it decided to go back. Would that be acceptable? The answer, of course, is no. Having felt that the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, had tabled an amendment that had been superseded by events, I now realise that he has spotted a rather important point.

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[Lord Brooke of Sutton Mandeville]

My Lords, I have not been provoked to rise by what the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, said about the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, in which I once had the privilege of serving as a Minister. I, too, had that experience with it after I left, so I know exactly what the noble Lord meant. On the other hand, when the Department for Culture, Media and Sport was set up and was given the job of handling listed building consent, the Department of the Environment, whence that function came, had to employ Chinese walls when both departments were deciding which building should be listed and were giving listed building consent for the alteration or destruction of buildings, and there was no question at all that it was an enormous plus to have matters dealt with in two different departments. Therefore, in that respect, I have some sympathy with the amendment moved by my noble friend Lord Higgins.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, as I indicated earlier, what the Minister has proposed seems to be in line with the intention behind the amendment—namely, that the OBR and Treasury staff should not mix together over coffee or whatever. Should the situation be reversed at some point in the future, that may or may not happen. In any event, I am satisfied with the Minister’s reply and beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

Amendment 11 withdrawn.

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[Lord Eatwell]

This is a tricky issue but the balance has been struck by a combination of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, and my noble friend Lord Myners. If the staff of the OBR is simply a rotating group of Treasury officials, the appearance of independence, which is so important to the OBR, will be endangered. We should remember especially the crucial independence of method set out in Clause 6(2). If it is a rotating group, it will carry with it the method that it brought from the Treasury. On the other hand, I recognise that we do not want to limit the career prospects of staff or the quality of staff; we want to get the best people we possibly can.

The Government cannot be complacent about this. The OBR will undoubtedly be under close scrutiny and it will not do for it to allow employment to be a revolving door connected to the Treasury. It is up to the Government to come up with an answer. If they want the OBR to have independence, they will have to find a solution to the staffing problem. I am afraid I do not have it; if I did I would offer it. Given its independent role under Clause 6(2), it is clearly a problem. However, I entirely agree that we should not in any way endanger the career prospects or the quality of the staff of the OBR.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, one could look worldwide and still fail to find better experts on the practical implications of this amendment than the noble Lords, Lord Burns and Lord Turnbull. There are obviously considerable practical problems and the Government have to face up to the fact that if these are insurmountable, then the argument that the previous arrangements on forecasting were biased and subject to ministerial interference and so on will be difficult to sustain if precisely the same people are making the forecasts now as were making them before.

The Minister shakes his head and I look forward to reassurance from him. However, one cannot simply let it rest and say that it does not matter because they are the same people. Given the overall intention of the creation of the OBR, one has the political problem that it should be seen to be independent.

[Lord Brooke of Sutton Mandeville]

My Lords, perhaps I may make an analogy which is completely separate from that that we have been discussing. The SAS is now one of the finest fighting forces in the world, frequently in much demand from the United States Army to work in conjunction with it. That organisation was founded in the desert in 1942 and people were asked to volunteer to join it. If they had been asked to resign all relationship with their previous regiment, I am not at all sure that they would have joined at that stage; nor that we would have had evolving out of 70 years of history the remarkable fighting force that we have.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, we need to step back and, in answer to the fundamental challenge of my noble friend Lord Higgins, remind ourselves of just what is going on here. We need to remember that the people who were making these forecasts under the old way of doing it were essentially Ministers and their advisers, who plucked out from the numbers that the fine Treasury officials were putting in front of them, in some non-transparent way, the forecasts and published them.

In the new construct of the BRC we have Robert Chote and his two fellow members as the body charged with producing the forecasts. We should not lose sight of the fact that that is where the fundamental responsibility for decision on the forecasts will be made. What is needed under the new model—as it was under the old model—is the best possible group of forecasting expertise. The Government recognise that, yes, it needs to be independent and expert. The principal guardians will be the three independent members of the OBR, who must be allowed to hire the best staff. The arguments put forward by the noble Lords, Lord Turnbull and Lord Burns, and my noble friends Lord Newby and Lady Noakes are very persuasive. We do not want in any way to constrain the OBR from hiring and firing whoever it wants to hire and fire. But if we were to exclude it taking civil servants because civil servants would have to resign from the Civil Service, with all the consequences that that might mean for their terms of employment, pension and so on, that would significantly reduce the pool of relatively talented people that the OBR should be able to employ.

Sir Alan Budd, in his advice on the permanent OBR, noted the benefits of the office being established as a Civil Service employer. The noble Lord, Lord Myners, makes an important point, which is that as well as the OBR having freedom, the non-executive directors will take on a role, which is to consider the overall mix of people. There is not remotely a question of complacency here, but we should not invent a problem where there is not one and significantly restrict the potential pool of relevant expertise on which the BRC will need to call.

In answer to some of the questions from the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, about the situation at present, the OBR has 13 full-time staff. They are Treasury employees on secondment because, for as long as it takes noble Lords in this House and Members in another place to pass the legislation, they cannot be employed by anyone else. As soon as the legislation is passed and we put the body on a statutory basis—the sooner, the better, I say—lots of things will be put on to their proper basis, because the OBR will under paragraph 8(1) of Schedule 1 become an employer in its own right. Under the well established terms for Civil Service employment, staff can be transferred, remain within the Civil Service and maintain their Civil Service terms and have the ability to move. They might not necessarily move back to the Treasury, but take a completely different direction in their career.

There are 13 staff now supporting the BRC. Of the three BRC members, Robert Chote is full time and Stephen Nickell and Graham Parker are working, on average, three days a week at the moment. There is no question about the non-execs, because they do not exist. That is how it is at the moment. As the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, indicated, the expectation is that the steady state of the OBR will be about 20 employees, but that is a matter for Robert Chote. He will make those decisions.

[Lord Higgins]

I intervene because I think that the Minister is winding up on this amendment. Why is it assumed that the staff of the OBR have to be people seconded from the Treasury? It is not as if the world is short of economic forecasters. One has only to look at the list of economic forecasters in the summary which the Treasury produces. Why do we feel that we have to second people from the Treasury rather than recruit them on a competitive basis?

[Lord Sassoon]

It is simply a matter of fact at the moment, because the OBR is not yet constituted on a statutory basis, that the employing body has to be somewhere else and, at the moment, it is the Treasury. The staff do not have to come from the Treasury. Indeed, I understand that an advertisement is out now publicly before the OBR to recruit an economist. It can recruit from wherever it likes; it has the resources to do that. The OBR will recruit to have an appropriate mix of knowledge and expertise, but the critical thing is that that it should recruit from wherever it would like to without any unreasonable hindrance. All the recruitment will be led by the independent, externally recruited members of the BRC. Even though it is not a formal employer at the moment, it is getting on and doing all the recruitment, totally independently.

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[Lord Eatwell]

My Lords, a well known and effective method of controlling any nominally independent body is by controlling its budget. Under this Bill, the budget of the OBR is clearly controlled by the Treasury. In Schedule 1(15)(1), we are told:

“The Treasury may make to the Office such payments out of money provided by Parliament as the Treasury considers appropriate for the purpose of enabling the Office to meet its expenses”.

If the OBR were not behaving in a manner that suited the Government, perhaps by undertaking a number of extra studies that cast the implications of government policies in an unfortunate light, the easiest way to discipline those independent-minded souls without going into any fuss about independence would be to cut their budget, forcing them back to their core function. Control of the budget is an important means of controlling an organisation.

All that the amendment proposes is that the budget be published and made available for scrutiny by the Treasury Committee of another place. That would give the Treasury Committee the opportunity to have its say on whether any inappropriate limitations were being placed on the operations of the OBR. Amendment 16 provides the scope for the Treasury Committee to act as the financial champion and protector of the independence of the OBR.

Noble Lords may have noticed a theme running through the amendments that my noble friends and I have proposed. We are attempting to enhance the independence of the OBR, and I am surprised that the Minister is resisting that attempt. I beg to move.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, I presume that the Minister will confirm whether the budget is going to be published. If it is, clearly the Treasury Select Committee could have a look at it if it wished. It seems more likely, however, that it would be examined by the Public Accounts Committee rather than the Treasury Committee, having already been looked at by the Comptroller and Auditor-General.

[Lord Burns]

My Lords, I support the spirit of this amendment for the reasons put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. I am sure that no problems with the budget will arise during the early years of the existence of this body. Indeed, it has probably already been agreed in the present expenditure round. But if we are going to safeguard the OBR into the future, it is necessary to have a system of public accountability and the opportunity for the executive members and perhaps the non-executives to be questioned by the Treasury Select Committee whether they think the resources being made available to them are sufficient to do the job. On this occasion, I disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, because this is an issue that falls to the Treasury Select Committee as the body with oversight of the extent to which the OBR is doing its job effectively.

In most cases I suspect that these issues would arise naturally, without having to include them in the Bill, so I shall listen carefully to what the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, has to say in reply. As I said, however, the spirit that is captured in the amendment is an important safeguard in terms of the future of the OBR. That is because in five or 10 years’ time, the circumstances surrounding the body may be very different.

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[Lord Higgins]

Some years ago, the Comptroller and Auditor-General and the PAC agreed that the Comptroller and Auditor-General could carry out value-for-money examinations. So it could do that.

[Lord Eatwell]

Absolutely. I agree with value for money, but the issue that we are discussing is the independence of the OBR in the pursuit of its activities. It may have pursued a constrained raft of activities very efficiently, providing good value for money, but the issue is the constraint. The Treasury Committee would be sensitive to exactly that kind of issue. That is why I have incorporated the Treasury Committee into my amendment.

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Moved by

[Lord Higgins]

18: Clause 4, page 2, line 20, at end insert “on the basis of section 1(2)(a) and (b)”

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, Clause 4 states:

“It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances”.

The amendment proposes to insert at the end of that passage,

“on the basis of section 1(2)(a) and (b)”,

which, as we have already discovered, state that the charter should set out,

“the Treasury’s objectives in relation to fiscal policy and policy for the management of the National Debt”,

and the means by which the Treasury is going to achieve that. It is important to refer back to the earlier passage to be clear about how the OBR will carry out its duties.

I still have considerable problems in understanding how it is going to look into these matters without also examining the Government’s economic policy—a matter that we spent a long time on in the previous Committee sitting. In the mean time, however, we have received a letter from the Minister commenting on that aspect. It is closely written and very condensed, and it deserves careful study. I presume that it is being placed in the Library so that it will be generally available.

[Baroness Noakes]

Is this a letter that only the noble Lord has received from my noble friend the Minister?

[Lord Peston]

We have all been given one. They are over there.

[Lord Higgins]

Has my noble friend now got a copy?

[Baroness Noakes]

Yes. This is an unorthodox way of distributing letters to Peers.

[Lord Higgins]

I presume that the Minister was seeking to be helpful to the Committee so that we should have it in advance of our discussion.

[Lord Sassoon]

The letter was intended to be helpful in advance of our discussion. It was sent around by e-mail earlier today, but noble Lords may not have seen it. I do not know who received it and I am not sure exactly what time it went out. Hard copies are available here in the Moses Room and it is now, or soon will be, on the Bill’s website. We tried to distribute it in as wide a way as we could.

[Lord Higgins]

In fact, as my noble friend has discovered, the letter was also available to the Committee today. In it, this complicated issue has been very condensed, and we will no doubt wish to return to it later.

As I say, I still have problems in believing that the OBR will carry out its duty in the terms that I quoted earlier unless it can take into account the Government’s general economic policy, which is one of the means in subsection (2)(b) by which the Treasury intends to achieve its fiscal policy, otherwise known as the fiscal mandate. In any event, it seems to clarify the situation if we accept the wording in the amendment.

Amendment 27, proposed by the noble Lords opposite, is, rightly, linked with this amendment. It raises an important point: what is meant by sustainability? The essence of what I understand that the OBR is going to do is report on whether the fiscal policies—and, I thought, the economic policies—are sustainable. At this stage, so that we have some idea what we are talking about, we need a clear definition from the Minister of what is meant by “sustainability”. One problem, of course, is that one can sustain the finances at various levels. Without knowing what the economic policy is, it will be difficult to know at what level it is proposed to sustain the financial side of the Government’s operations. We need to know, since it is in the Bill and it is important, what “sustainability” means.

[Lord Barnett]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, has referred to Amendment 27 in the name of my noble friend Lord Peston and myself. The amendment itself says:

“In any report on the sustainability of the public finances, ‘sustainability’ must be defined”.

I have tried hard to obtain some kind of definition of “sustainability” in the sense in which the Minister has used it—I have tried to elicit information on many of the words that he has used, as he knows—but that word, in some of the contexts that it is used, is a little difficult, to say the least. That is why we tabled the amendment; we need to know what is being talked about here.

Again, I have tried to be helpful and brief. I would like the Minister to explain briefly what is meant by “sustainability”.

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[Lord Sassoon]

Indeed. The question is: what is appropriate to put in the legislation? There is an element here of risking treating the OBR inappropriately by telling it to do things that are clearly already self-evident to the OBR, in that it has already started to make significant comments on sustainability but is not rushing to final conclusions or making it the subject of a separate major piece of work. Therefore I am absolutely sympathetic to the principle but I am not sure that we should get into the game of writing down everything that the OBR is to do. The question this provokes in my mind is whether anything more should be said about this point in the charter. If there is any more to be said, it should be in the charter, and it is in that context that I should like to reflect on the substance of Amendment 27.

Amendment 18 makes an explicit link between the OBR and the Treasury’s objectives and mandate. I absolutely agree that it is important for the OBR to work in the context of these objectives and the mandate. Therefore, the purpose behind my noble friend’s amendment is entirely appropriate but I am a little concerned that, taken particularly with Amendment 30, it would not provide sufficient protection to keep the OBR out of what could become broader and politicised debates about policy scenarios.

I have thought about this carefully. I believe that the current design achieves a balance for the broad remit for the OBR with a sufficiently clear focus on government policy, and any amendment in this area would need to ensure that that careful balance was protected. I am worried that the amendment might challenge that. As I said, I believe that the substance of what is intended is already in the Bill. I very much took to heart the words of noble Lords on this area at Second Reading, including those of the noble Lord, Lord Burns, who noted the importance of the OBR not being drawn into wider political debates and not opining on alternative policy options. We have to keep the OBR focused on the fact that its forecast has to be of the economic policies that have been decided by the Government. However, we should not through inappropriate drafting risk taking the OBR into debates about the policy itself.

I shall continue to think carefully about whether we have got the balance right, but I hope my noble friend understands that we may risk drawing the OBR into something wider than I suspect he intends. I ask him to withdraw the amendment.

[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, we are in danger of getting involved in metaphysics rather than econometrics. The absolutely central thing in the Bill is that the main duty of the office is to examine and report on sustainability. To say, “Oh well, the OBR itself will decide what is meant by that” when it is in the Bill is not a satisfactory situation. We have to have some idea of what is meant by it.

As far as the individual is concerned, it is fairly clear: if your expenditure is more than your income, the position is not sustainable—except, of course, that you can delay the proceedings by borrowing and so on. The same is not totally untrue as far as the Government are concerned. In the light of the earlier clauses to which I referred, is the OBR going to say, “The way the Government are going will not work. Their fiscal objective”—in the simple terms I have just outlined for an individual——“is not sustainable”? The same would have been true if the OBR had been reporting earlier on the position of the Irish Government. It could have said, “This is not sustainable. You will either default, have to be bailed out—which may or may not be a sustainable position—get out of the euro, or whatever”. Is the OBR going to say, as perhaps it might have said to the previous Government, “What you are doing is not sustainable”?

We have taken the clear position as an incoming Government that what the previous Government were doing was not sustainable; in short, they were going to go bust unless they could continue borrowing enough to stay afloat. Is this what is meant by sustainability? It probably is but, if so, we at least need confirmation from the Government—not from the OBR—that it means, “You cannot go on doing this without various other consequences following”.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I tried to make clear in summary what the Government understand by “sustainability”. It encompasses the thinking of my noble friend, which is the bare minimum that anyone would understand by “sustainability”. I want to allow the OBR to interpret it further. The noble Lord, Lord Peston, shakes his head. I say it is the bare minimum but I want to give the OBR the freedom to interpret “sustainability” in as wide a way as it thinks appropriate. Of course the OBR can and should say that the public finances are not sustainable if it considers that to be the case. It has written on sustainability already and will do a lot more work. I do not want to constrain it with a government definition that people may criticise. Having said that, there is a need for further consideration to ascertain whether the matter of sustainability can be reflected in the charter. However, it should not be done in a way that lays down a government definition of it.

[Lord Higgins]

That is a very helpful reply, if I may say so, but we cannot go along with the main object of the whole thing not being more clearly defined. Could my noble friend discuss it with the OBR and, before Report, get some idea of the answer?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, as I have said, I am happy to discuss it with the OBR again, but it clearly believes that this is a very difficult issue, which is why it has made some opening comments, if you like, on sustainability in both its June and its November documents. It will make it the subject of a self-standing report—I assume, a significant one—next year, which is in its programme. It has already said that sustainability in its full richness cannot and should not be rushed or reduced to a simple formula. It wants to lay its thinking out in detail, and we should allow it to do that.

[Lord Higgins]

I beg leave to withdraw the amendment, but as the noble Lord has kindly produced a letter on the earlier part, perhaps he might try, before Report, to produce a letter on this issue.

Amendment 18 withdrawn.

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[Lord Sassoon]

Again, I am advised that the drafting of the amendment would not necessarily achieve that end. If we include “in the light of economic policies”, even if it was widely interpreted, does that mean we should refer also to other aspects of sustainability, such as, for example, the impact of external shocks? I believe that the subsection works, even as drafted. We absolutely agree with both noble Lords in terms of what we expect to be taken into account, but we do not consider that the amendment will help. Its drafting does not do the trick and, I am advised, aims at something which is not necessary because we have it in Clause 5(3).

[Lord Higgins]

I have, in fact, tabled an amendment to Clause 5(3)—Amendment 30, which we shall come to in due course. However, long experience in these matters suggests that occasionally when one is discussing a Bill, it becomes apparent at what stage the parliamentary draftsman had a nervous breakdown. If the advice given by the parliamentary draftsman is that in some way Clause 5(3) is helpful in defining the point that we are discussing, I find that very surprising.

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[Lord Higgins]

My Lords, Clause 5(3) on page 3 of the Bill is the subject of Amendment 30. However, I entirely agree with what the noble Lord said a moment ago: one cannot conceivably construe that subsection as in some way qualifying the issue that we are now debating. If that is the advice that my noble friend is getting from the parliamentary draftsmen, who of course are paid far more than anyone else in the Civil Service, it is an extraordinary answer.

[Lord Sassoon]

Perhaps I may try again. Under Clause 4(1) it is the duty of the office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances. For the reasons explained by the noble Lord, Lord Burns, it would be difficult to report on the sustainability of the public finances without having regard to a lot of things, including—critically and at the centre—government economic policy. That links to what is laid out in the charter. If there is any doubt about whether the office will take account of government economic policies, as opposed to any other economic policies, we should look at Clause 5 for guidance on how the main duty is to be performed. The first point, which is important, is that the office has complete discretion, subject to certain subsections. Therefore, there will be a raft of approaches and other considerations that it can bring in if it considers them to be relevant.

We may then go on to subsection (3), having established that the OBR could not exercise its main duty without having regard to economic policies. Clause 5(3) makes it abundantly clear that when it looks at economic and other policies, it must have regard to any relevant government policies—not just economic policies, or economic policies defined in the widest sense by the noble Lord, Lord Burns. Under Clause 4, the office must have regard to economic policy; otherwise, how on earth would it start to look at sustainability? Clause 5(3) makes it clear that the policies that it must have regard to are not alternative policies but the policies of the Government. It is clear if one follows it through.

[Lord Eatwell]

Absolutely. We have just heard clarity provided from this incredibly obscurantist piece of drafting. This subsection is a negative. It says:

“Where any Government policies are relevant … the Office may not consider”.

You are taken to the negative. The verb with operational significance in that sentence is “may not”. The noble Lord, Lord Newby, has hit the nail on the head. If one really wants to achieve what we are all trying to achieve, this subsection should be split into two with Clause 5(3) saying, “Take these things into account” and a new Clause 5(4) saying, “Don’t mess around looking at other people’s policies”.

[Lord Higgins]

When we consider my amendment which refers to Clause 5(3), I shall make a quite separate point. The noble Lord, Lord Newby, has essentially encapsulated what he wants to say. The problem for the Government is that we are saying that the OBR has to take into account the Government’s economic policy, whereas the noble Lord’s letter—and the debate on that lasted for an hour and 20 minutes on our first day in Committee—was concerned with saying that we must not under any circumstances allow the OBR to look at economic policy.

[Lord Burns]

There is an issue with the drafting of Clause 5 and I wonder whether we are trying to make subsection (3) work too hard for its living. I had assumed that it was there to make sure that the OBR did not get dragged into a political debate and would not be called upon by anyone to cost opposition policies—which, as we know, has become a bit of a habit over the past 25 years—or by a Select Committee to insist that it compared the outcome of the Government’s policies with that of another set of policies. That would inevitably draw the OBR into a political debate. I had assumed that that was the purpose of this subsection, and it may be working it too hard to say that it should also do the job suggested by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. I think that the noble Lord, Lord Newby, has captured the spirit of what a number of us have been concerned about.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Sassoon]

Do not push me, because I can sit down now. All the notes say “Resist”, but there is “resist” with a smiling face and there is another kind. If this discussion is intended to reopen the debate around Clause 1, which would have the effect of getting the OBR into the business of commenting on government economic policy and conceivably alternative economic policies, then I am not going to suggest looking at clarifying the drafting to achieve that. My starting point, like that of the noble Lord, Lord Burns, is that it would not be possible to carry out the measure set out in Clause 4(1). How could you conceivably do that if it were not based on the Government’s economic policies as widely defined, including thinking about the potential for external shocks and so on? The very important point is that Clause 5(3) stipulates that the context is only one of government policies, not alternative versions. Therefore, when the OBR carries out its analysis, it should look at only the government policies that have been announced.

[Lord Higgins]

I am trying to be helpful; this is clearly rather more complicated than we may have thought a little time ago. Could my noble friend simply say that he will look to see whether the intention of the Government has been encapsulated by the draftsmen and that, if not, he will table a more suitable amendment, because I do not think that we can leave it as it is?

[Lord Sassoon]

I was going to make two points. There is a further important consideration here, which is that we have the draft charter in front of us. It is worth bearing in mind that paragraph 4.12 of the draft charter, at page 13, states:

“The OBR’s published forecasts shall be based on all Government decisions and all other circumstances that may have a material impact on the fiscal outlook”.

So it is quite clear from that paragraph that the published forecasts shall be based on all government decisions. It continues, in the first bullet point, or tiret, as the Treasury used to call it—I do not know whether it still does since the departure of the noble Lord, Lord Burns; I fear that it now calls them “bullets”. Anyway, in the first blob—