Lord Mountevans Portrait Lord Mountevans (CB)
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I join in welcoming the noble Earl and in thanking the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, for her outstanding service. I join in celebrating the continuation of the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, on the Government Bench, and I congratulate the noble Lords, Lord Roberts and Lord Young, on their excellent maiden speeches.

Addressing foreign relations first, I make a plea for increased attention to Latin America—nobody has mentioned this—a region that typically in recent years has not gained the attention and resources it deserves. I declare my unremunerated interest as honorary president of Canning House. There is so much good will for the UK in South America and central America. These are countries typically enjoying higher growth rates than the UK, and in the meantime China is all over them like the proverbial cheap suit. The recent signature of the UK-central America association agreement has been warmly greeted by our central American friends, and we should be delighted by the flow of important delegations and visitors from the signatory countries. This is an opportunity we should grasp.

On international relationships and defence, in an increasingly contested world, Britain strives to be a force for good. The Government are to be congratulated on much that they have accomplished, but I think we can all recognise that additional investment is required now in defence. A key factor today is what might be called warning time. In the 2010 defence review, and I think the 2015 iteration, the belief was that Britain would have enough warning time to prepare in a conflict. In the last 18 months, we can see that this is no longer a valid assumption, if it ever was. Today, malign action could come out of an almost clear sky.

Putin’s annexation of Crimea was unexpected, and then we wanted to believe that he would not attack Ukraine, but he did. And now, to everyone’s surprise, Hamas has attacked Israel, with devastating consequences. We can all wonder if Putin had any input in this very calculated attack. We can be sure Iran did. We can see that major threats and attacks can come very rapidly—no 10-year preparation. We must be fully prepared with the right numbers of regulars and reserves, adequate kit and proper hardware for our gallant Armed Forces.

With the threat from China and Russia—and jointly in the far north—not forgetting threats to underwater infrastructure as well as to seaways, this is a maritime era. I say this as an honorary Royal Naval officer with an entire career in maritime. But we must also be prepared for land engagement in Europe, potentially in the Baltic, where Finland and hopefully Sweden will shortly be members of NATO. The Baltic becomes a choke point for Russian access to the North Sea and to the Atlantic, with the Black Sea also a potential choke point via the Bosphorus. Russia may see ocean access for its ships only in the far north and in the Pacific. We must urgently look at land forces.

Our reserves are now part of what is called the total force—with a revolving door—but what then of back-up? How does the Minister see back-up? In the stellar debate of the noble Lord, Lord Soames, a few weeks ago, the noble Lord, Lord Lancaster, had just returned from Poland where they were to increase their reserves by 100,000. Our reserve strength is around 30,000. We should do everything we can to increase the reserves.

My final point is of the utmost importance. For me, a real elephant in the room is the state of the union. Going back over centuries, the Scots and the Irish have made enormous contributions to Britain’s, Europe’s and international defence. Not enough of us are engaged in convincing those of our splendid Scots and gallant Irish friends who may seek independence rather than the benefits of a United Kingdom. We should embrace them more directly rather than standing back for fear of offending them. Scotland and Ireland are of the utmost importance for many reasons, including their remarkable contribution to our Armed Forces manpower, the role of Scotland in our warship construction, the array of ports across both Scotland and Northern Ireland as a base for the nuclear deterrent but also for access to the North Sea and the far north. A dismembered kingdom would not have the diplomatic voice or heft of a United Kingdom.