Ukraine: UK Policy

Lord Empey Excerpts

Monday 17th March 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Empey (UUP)]

My Lords, in his opening remarks, the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, pointed to some truths. First, we as a country and Europe in general have been saying things that we cannot deliver. The fact is that we have run our defence down over decades and we have now been found out, and in the most brutal way possible.

In my opinion, the reason why problems have arisen in Ukraine is that red lines were drawn in Syria to which President Obama did not adhere. Putin took a message from that, dug himself in with a warm-water port in the Mediterranean and has moved on from there, because he knew that our bark was worse than our bite. American military intelligence would have been able to foresee the tanks lining up in Belarus for the invasion. If President Biden had acted at that stage, the war could probably have been prevented.

There is no historical reason why the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation should be enemies. Many British merchant seamen lost their lives in World War II as they resupplied the Russians during the fight against the Nazis. Sadly, Russia has become an aggressive and territorially acquisitive country, led by thugs who think nothing of eliminating their internal critics, whether poisoning residents in this country—which nobody seems to mention any more—or throwing their opponents out of high-rise buildings in Moscow. They are interfering and stirring up trouble in the Balkans and in Africa. They are interfering in eastern Europe, part of which they see as a relic of the former Soviet Empire.

I understand the argument, “Is NATO coming closer?” Then what are we going to do about Finland and Sweden? They are now on the front line. NATO is not threatening Russia in Africa or the Balkans, so we have to get away from this idea that these people are some kind of victims. They are not. But I accept that diplomacy has failed: we have been talking the talk, but not walking the walk.

There is one big lesson from this, which the noble Lord, Lord Banner, mentioned. The big lesson of the last three years of war is: if you have nuclear weapons, hold on to them; if you do not, acquire them. That is the message. Had Ukraine retained its nuclear weapons and territory after the collapse of the USSR, there would perhaps have been no invasion in 2022. This lesson has been learned by North Korea, after they saw what happened to Gaddafi, and it is now informing Iran’s thinking.

While I welcome President Trump’s desire to see an end to the fighting, I do not agree with the recent public treatment of President Zelensky. I fear that Donald Trump is being deceived. I do not believe that even a token pause in the fighting will be anything other than a pause in the Russian campaign to acquire the territory of its neighbours. For instance, as far as Russia is concerned, Ukraine does not exist. That is the starting point. We are not natural enemies, but sadly there is a regime in that country that does not recognise any standards with which your Lordships or I would identify.

It is fearfully clear that Ukraine does not have the military capability to push Russia back. It did not get the support that it needed at the very start. There were mixed messages and there still are, so I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, on that. However, Ukraine should not be forced to recognise its territory as part of Russia. It does not have the military capability, as I said, but annexation should not be rewarded by recognition, and nor should sanctions be removed from Russia. Ending the fighting is one thing, but giving recognition and reward is another.