Queen’s Speech

Lord Cromwell Excerpts

Wednesday 11th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Cromwell (CB)]

My Lords, I left this House in 1999 along with a number of others, as I am sure noble Lords will recall. I am very honoured to have been invited back as the result of a Cross-Bench by-election. As I am on my second innings, I will let the cricketers among noble Lords decide whether I am now doing a maiden, a second maiden, or whether is just a question of “maiden over”;—I am not quite sure myself. Either way, I am very grateful to have this chance to contribute, as far as I can, to the debate today.

I have listened to the whole debate and have heard a range of views on Ukraine and Russia, which is the subject I will address. I declare an interest as a director of the British East-West Centre, which provided the UK contingent of election monitors for the recent elections in Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine are economically and strategically important to us for reasons which I do not have time or probably the necessity to go into with this audience. The events of the past few months seem to have brought their relationships with “the West”—the revival of that cold war term is telling in itself—to a new low.

Ukraine became an independent state in 1991. Russia retains definite strategic, economic and other interests there. The West has tried to draw Ukraine ever closer to political involvement with Europe, and the population of more than 45 million have their own interests, loyalties and history. Recent events suggest that the West, either by misadventure or deliberately, got itself into a tug-of-war with Russia over Ukraine. Each side—and they became sides—offered multi-billion dollar bids for the country, gave come-hither promises, and accused each other of covert interference. It is very unwise to get into a tug-of-war with somebody who is likely to pull out a gun.

As the tension escalated between the EU and Russia, two things happened. First, Russia simply annexed Crimea militarily. That completely illegal action has been rightly condemned, but it is of little surprise to anyone who knows the historical or strategic background to that relationship. President Putin’s subsequent swaggering contrasted sharply with western battle fatigue. I was reminded very much of that old playground cry, “Oh yeah? You and whose army?”. As a number of speakers have mentioned, that has not gone unnoticed in areas of the world such as the South China Sea. Earlier a noble Lord suggested that economic sanctions were the way to go. They are one of the tools in the box, but do we wish to economically destabilise a country that should be one of the guarantors of peace in Europe?

Secondly, Donetsk and Luhansk, the two eastern regions of the country, have descended effectively into warlordism. Beyond the reach of the proper authorities, roadblocks in and out of towns there are manned by well armed but ill trained men. Torture and disappearances are not uncommon. The new president, Mr Poroshenko, lost no time in declaring that the Crimea and eastern Ukraine would be, to use his phrase, “recovered”. The response from the separatists in those regions has been fairly dismissive. However, as we sit here tonight, firefights and shelling are going on, and large numbers of those soon to become refugees are beginning to pour out of the region. Are we facing a civil war? Possibly. Will Ukraine have a war with Russia? That is unlikely. My concern, however, is that this is a mess created by external actors which the new Administration in Ukraine will have to try to sort out.

I emphatically do not suggest that NATO should have escalated matters into a military conflict, nor that Russia’s actions are defensible, if understandable. I have worked for more than 20 years with that region, and a robust approach is usually the way to conduct negotiations. However, my overall concern is how we got into this situation in the first place.

The depth and subtlety of understanding that is found in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office consistently impresses me. However, it seems to have been brushed aside by our partners in their enthusiasm to grab hold of the western end of the rope and tug.

In conclusion, in seeking stable relations with Russia and Ukraine, we really must do all that we can to help and guide our western partners into a more nuanced recognition that mutual interest is what will solve this problem, not indulging in cold war rivalry, which will find a very ready echo in Moscow.