Economic Update

Lindsay Hoyle Excerpts

Monday 17th October 2022 Commons Chamber

[The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Jeremy Hunt)]

Mr Speaker, the central responsibility of any Government is to do what is necessary for economic stability. Behind the decisions we take and the issues on which we vote are jobs that families depend on, mortgages that have to be paid, savings for pensioners, and businesses investing for the future. We are a country that funds our promises and pays our debts. When that is questioned, as it has been, the Government will take the difficult decisions necessary to ensure that there is trust and confidence in our national finances. That means decisions of eye-watering difficulty, but I give the House and the public this assurance: every single one of those decisions, whether reductions in spending or increases in tax, will be shaped through core compassionate Conservative values that will prioritise the needs of the most vulnerable. That is why I pay tribute to my predecessors for the energy price guarantee, for the furlough scheme and, indeed, for earlier decisions to protect the NHS budget in a period in which other budgets were being cut.

I want to be completely frank about the scale of the economic challenge that we face. We have had short-term difficulties, caused by the lack of a forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility alongside the mini-Budget, but there are also inflationary and interest pressures around the world. Russia’s unforgivable invasion of Ukraine has caused energy and food prices to spike. We cannot control what is happening in the rest of the world, but when the interest of economic stability means that the Government need to change course we will do so, and that is what I have come to the House to announce today.

In my first few days in the job, I have held extensive discussions with the Prime Minister, Cabinet colleagues, the Governor of the Bank of England, the OBR, the head of the Debt Management Office, Treasury officials and many others. The conclusion I have drawn from those conversations is that we need to do more more quickly to give certainty to the markets about our fiscal plans and to show through action and not just words that the United Kingdom can and always will pay our way in the world. We have therefore decided to make further changes to the mini-Budget immediately rather than waiting until the medium-term fiscal plan in two weeks’ time, in order to reduce unhelpful speculation about those plans.

I am very grateful for your agreement, Mr Speaker, about the need to give the markets an early brief summary this morning, and I welcome the opportunity to give this House details of those decisions now. We have decided on the following changes to support confidence and stability. First, the Prime Minister and I agreed yesterday to reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan three weeks ago that have not been legislated for in Parliament. We will continue with the abolition of the health and social care levy, changes to stamp duty, the increase in the annual investment allowance to £1 million and the wider reforms to investment taxes, but we will no longer be proceeding with the cuts to dividend tax rates, saving around £1 billion a year; the reversal of the off-payroll working reforms introduced in 2017 and 2021, saving around £2 billion a year; the new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors, saving a further £2 billion a year; or the freeze on alcohol duty rates, saving around £600 million a year. I will provide further details—[Interruption.]

[Mr Speaker]

Order. Let’s just sort this telephone out. Has it been switched off all right? It is off. I am sorry, Chancellor, carry on.

[Jeremy Hunt]

I will provide further details on how alcohol duty rates will be uprated shortly.

Secondly, the Government are currently committed to cutting the basic rate of income tax to 19% in April of 2023. It is a deeply held Conservative value, a value that I share, that people should keep more of the money they earn, which is why we have continued with the abolition of the health and social care levy. But at a time when markets are asking serious questions about our commitment to sound public finances, we cannot afford a permanent discretionary increase in borrowing worth £6 billion a year. I have decided that the basic rate of income tax will remain at 20%, and it will do so indefinitely until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut. Taken together with the decision not to cut corporation tax and restoring the top rate of income tax, the measures I have announced today will raise about £32 billion every year.

The third step I am taking today is to review the energy price guarantee. That was the biggest single expense in the growth plan and one of the most generous schemes in the world. It is a landmark policy for which I pay tribute to my predecessor, my right hon. Friend the Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng), and it will support millions of people through a difficult winter, reducing inflation by up to 5%. I confirm today that the support we are providing between now and April next year will not change, but beyond next April the Prime Minister and I have reluctantly agreed that it would not be responsible to continue to expose the public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices. I am announcing today a Treasury-led review into how we support energy bills beyond April of next year. The review’s objective is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned while ensuring enough support for those in need. Any support for businesses will be targeted at those most affected and a new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.

There remain, I am afraid, many difficult decisions to be announced in the medium-term fiscal plan on 31 October when, I confirm, we will publish a credible, transparent and fully costed plan to get debt falling as a share of the economy over the medium term based on the judgment and economic forecasts of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. I would like to thank the OBR, whose director, Richard Hughes, I met this morning, and the Bank of England, whose Governor, Andrew Bailey, I have now met twice. I fully support the vital independent roles that both institutions play, which give markets, the public and the world confidence that our economic plans are credible and rightly hold us to account for delivering them.

I also want more independent expert advice as I start my journey as Chancellor, so today I am announcing the formation of a new economic advisory council to do just that. This council will advise the Government on economic policy, with four names announced today: Rupert Harrison, a former chief of staff to the Chancellor of the Exchequer; Gertjan Vlieghe from Element Capital; Sushil Wadhwani of Wadhwani Asset Management; and Karen Ward of J.P. Morgan.

We remain completely committed to our mission to go for growth, but growth requires confidence and stability, which is why we are taking many difficult decisions—starting today. But while we do need realism about the challenges ahead, we must never fall into the trap of pessimism. Despite all the adversity and challenge we face, there is enormous potential in this country, with some of the most talented people, three of the world’s top 10 universities, the most tech unicorns in Europe, one of the world’s great financial centres, and incredible strengths in the creative industries, science, research, engineering, manufacturing and innovation.

All that gives me genuine optimism about our long-term prospects for growth, but to achieve that, it is vital that we act now to create the stability on which future generations can build. The reason the United Kingdom has always succeeded is because, at big and difficult moments, we have taken tough decisions in the long-term interests of the country, and in a way that is consistent with compassionate Conservative values, that is what we will do now. I commend this statement to the House.

--- Later in debate ---

[Jeremy Hunt]

I thank the hon. Lady for her questions, and I am sorry that, given the speed with which things moved at the weekend, I have not had time to sit down with her one to one as would normally be the practice before parliamentary exchanges.

I understand the role Opposition parties play—I have stood at that Dispatch Box myself—but behind the rhetoric, and I was listening very carefully, I do not think the hon. Lady disagreed with a single one of the decisions I announced to Parliament, and that is important for the country and markets to know. I think there is also agreement on the process of policy making. I support the independence of the Bank of England, introduced by Gordon Brown, and I know the hon. Lady supports the independence of the Office for Budget Responsibility, set up by George Osborne. The whole Government support the independence of those two important institutions.

I fully accept—I do not think I could have been clearer—that we have had to change some decisions made in the last few weeks, but I reject wholeheartedly the hon. Lady’s broader narrative about Conservative economic management. Let me remind her that the UK’s unemployment rate is the lowest since 1974; it is lower than that of France, Italy, Canada, Belgium, Sweden, Spain and the Netherlands and is massively lower than in 2010. Let me remind her that since 2010 our growth rate has been the third highest in the G7 —[Interruption.] She may not want to hear this, but these are the economic facts. Our growth rate since this party came into power has been higher than that of Germany, France, Italy and Japan and has been faster than that of any G7 country this year. Looking to the future, we have the largest technology sector in Europe and more foreign direct investment than anywhere in Europe bar one country. That is a legacy to be proud of.

I was listening carefully for some questions about the measures I announced, but the hon. Lady did not ask any and I think she agrees with them. I will pick her up on one point, however. She talked about the NHS; let me tell her—[Interruption.] Maybe they do not want to listen about the NHS. She talked about the NHS: because of the global financial crisis, which happened on her party’s watch, the NHS went through one of its most difficult periods ever, yet this party protected the NHS budget, and then in 2017 we were able to give it its biggest single increase in funding, because of the difficult decisions we took and the hon. Lady’s party opposed.

In conclusion, we inherited the financial crisis, we dealt with the global pandemic, and we have led the world in support of Ukraine, all possible because of difficult decisions taken over the last 12 years, each and every one opposed by the party opposite. So if the hon. Lady is preaching today the need for fiscal credibility, which I warmly welcome, may I just tell her this: the true test will be in two weeks’ time, to see whether she supports public spending restraint? I have showed Conservatives can raise taxes; will she show Labour is willing to restrain spending?

[Mr Speaker]

I call the Chair of the Treasury Committee.

[Mel Stride (Central Devon) (Con)]

I welcome my right hon. Friend’s statement. It was both frank and bold, and it appears—in the very short term, at least—to have steadied the markets. One point that he raised at the Dispatch Box—although it was absent from his statement earlier today—was his renewed commitment to our financial institutions, and in particular the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility. He has also brought forward the economic advisory council, a number of whose members have appeared before the Treasury Committee; I think that he has chosen well. Will he reassure the House that the economic advisory council will not in any way conflict with the Bank of England, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority or any of our institutions and that it will be there to complement and not work against any of them?

[Jeremy Hunt]

I thank my right hon. Friend, who in recent weeks has spoken wisely about the difficult issues that we face. I can absolutely give him that assurance. I want, to be frank, to ensure that I am getting advice from fantastic institutions such as the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, but also advice that is independent of those institutions, because that is how we will get the best result. Rupert Harrison in particular has enormous experience of running the Treasury under George Osborne over many years, and I think that he will make an important contribution, as will his colleagues on the council.

With respect to the markets, my right hon. Friend is absolutely right to be cautious about what happens. They go up as well as they go down, and no Government can—or should seek to—control the markets. What we can do is the thing that is within our power, which is a very firm and clear commitment to fiscal responsibility.

[Mr Speaker]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Alison Thewliss (Glasgow Central) (SNP)]

Thank you, Mr Speaker—[Interruption.] I see that the Prime Minister has urgently run off to something else rather than stay to listen.

When the previous Chancellor came to give his mini Budget three long weeks ago, I called it economic chaos. What an understatement that turned out to be. I am not sure that words have yet been invented to describe the scale of unmitigated disaster which the Prime Minister and her Chancellors have created in the past 24 days. We are back where we started but significantly worse off due to Tory incompetence. Is it not just as well that, in Scotland, the Scottish Government did not take Tory MPs’ advice to copy and paste from here before Government Front Benchers delete all? People will be paying the price for many years to come through higher interest and borrowing rates. Will the Chancellor apologise for the increased costs that his colleagues have inflicted on people? He has not been clear at all, so will he confirm the status of the bankers’ bonus cap—has it been scrapped or not?

There is little by way of detail from the current Chancellor about doubling down on austerity and what that will mean for people. However, the Institute for Government and the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy have been clear that there is no fat left to cut after a lost decade for public services under the Tories. Where does the current Chancellor expect to make these cuts or “efficiency savings”? We know what he means when he says that. We already know the terrible price of austerity, because the Glasgow Centre for Population Health has attributed 330,000 excess deaths to Tory austerity policies: an unacceptable human cost. Again and again, the Tories bring forward harmful policies that they never feel the consequences of.

We know that guarantees mean nothing under the Tories, either. The so-called energy price guarantee turns out to be for six months, not two years, with a cliff edge looming next April. National Energy Action has said:

“Many vulnerable people were holding on by their fingertips. Government has to be very, very careful it doesn’t prise them away.”

Will the Chancellor tell us exactly what will happen for households in April? The scale of increases makes almost everybody vulnerable—except, perhaps, his banker pals. What will happen to the most vulnerable when inflation soars as a result of the return of spiralling energy costs?

The previous Chancellor never got round to telling me what will happen to businesses’ energy costs at the end of their six-month reprieve. Will the current Chancellor tell me what support businesses signing impossibly expensive contracts as we speak can expect? Will he, as the former, former, former Chancellor did, commit to uprating benefits with the rate of inflation? Will he also increase support for those languishing in the asylum system and end the punishing “no recourse to public funds” regime? Will he cancel the benefit cap and scrap the two-child limit, which is trapping so many children in poverty? Where is his compassion for them?

Will the Chancellor invest in renewables, carbon capture and storage, and a comprehensive energy-efficiency and insulation package? Does he really understand, when looking at broken Britain, the chaos that the Tories have wreaked and the prospect of a bleak Brexit future under both Labour and the Tories, that more and more of Scotland’s people are looking at the comprehensive independence prospectus set out by the First Minister today and moving towards the vision of a fairer, greener, more prosperous Scotland back in the heart of Europe where we belong?