Prison Capacity: Annual Statement

Jake Richards Excerpts

Thursday 29th January 2026 Written Statements

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Justice (Jake Richards)]

Today, I am publishing the second annual statement on prison capacity. This marks the second annual statement delivering the Government commitment to transparency and accountability in the criminal justice system.

This annual statement sets out updated prison population projections and supply forecasts. It shows that, when the impact of sentencing reforms is factored in, supply is expected to keep pace with demand in the central scenario. This is a significant step forward, but there is no single quick fix. The prison estate remains under pressure, and we will continue to take bold action to protect the public and restore confidence in the criminal justice system.

This Government inherited a prison system on the brink of collapse. At one point in 2024, fewer than 100 places remained in the adult male estate. Had prisons overflowed, courts would have been forced to suspend trials, the police to halt arrests and public safety put at risk. That was the legacy of years of neglect, during which only 500 net places were added to the estate in over 14 years.

That is why we acted decisively. In December 2024, we published the 10-year prison capacity strategy, setting out plans for the largest expansion of the prison estate since the Victorian era. We committed up to £7 billion between 2024 to 2025 and 2029 to 2030 to deliver 14,000 new prison places by 2031. This year’s statement shows the significant progress we have made. We have already delivered over 2,900 places and around 5,000 more are under construction, meaning we are on track to meet our target.

However, prison building alone is not enough. Without further action, the prison population is projected to rise by an average of 3,000 annually, outpacing supply even with our build programme.

That is why we launched the independent sentencing review and will deliver reforms through the Sentencing Act 2026. These reforms—including a presumption to suspend short custodial sentences, the extension of suspended sentence orders, an earned progression model, tougher community-based sentences, changes to recall and remand, and earlier removal of foreign national offenders—are expected to reduce the prison population by around 7,500 places by 2028, while keeping the public safe and improving outcomes for victims.

The Probation Service is central to the safe and effective operation of the criminal justice system, to the delivery of the Sentencing Act 2026 and managing demand on the prison estate. The statement therefore outlines key information of probation capacity, including caseloads and workforce. It also sets out progress to date and the steps being taken to strengthen probation capacity over the coming years. This includes investment of up to £700 million in probation and community services by 2028 to 2029, continued recruitment, and ongoing digital transformation to free up capacity and improve performance.

The new Sentencing Act 2026 places a statutory duty on the Secretary of State to lay before Parliament and publish an annual report on prison capacity. This fulfils a promise made in the previous annual statement to commit to making publication a statutory requirement, to ensure future decisions on prison demand and supply are evidence based and transparent. These steps mark a turning point: increasing capacity, strengthening accountability, and building a safer, fairer system for the long term.

[HCWS1291]