Eurozone Crisis

Ian Paisley Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2011 Westminster Hall

[Mr Baron]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. There is a real danger that we underestimate the extent of the debt and the defaults that could happen. One is not joining the bandwagon of warning signals. The debt that has to be rolled over is quite clear for all to see, but I do not think the Government are acknowledging that. Simply to fall complacently back on the fact that no money ever loaned to the IMF has been lost is to miss the point completely.

[Ian Paisley (North Antrim) (DUP)]

I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on securing the debate. He mentioned a number of times the bilateral loan, which is of significant interest to my colleagues and me. He may be interested to know that last December, I wrote to the Chancellor to suggest that Her Majesty’s Government should hold the deeds of all properties in the United Kingdom that are in the possession of the National Asset Management Agency, the Irish state bank, so that it cannot disproportionately influence our market by the unilateral sale of those properties. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that that is one way of protecting ourselves and our own local market against NAMA?

[Mr Baron]

That is certainly one option that should be explored more thoroughly. I referred to the Irish loans because the Government line to date has been that our liability to the eurozone crisis stops at the bilateral loan to Ireland and at our existing £6.5 billion contingency liabilities to the EFSM. That is simply untrue, given the additional contributions through the IMF.

Will additional IMF funding work? That will simply reinforce existing eurozone policy, which is itself fundamentally flawed. The existing policy simply does not address the core causes of the crisis, which are a lack of competitiveness and Governments spending too much. Debt is the problem, as I have said, not demand. We have had 14 or perhaps even 15 gatherings, conferences and summits to save the euro, but each has failed to address the core reason for the problem, which is a fundamental lack of competitiveness. Where are the swathes of cuts to regulation? Where is the introduction of measures to improve competitiveness? They simply have not been there. All that has happened, and all the concern there has been, is to put together more debt to solve an existing debt crisis.

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[Mark Field]

I suspect that that says more about eurozone countries than about the fundamental health of the Argentinean economy, but if my hon. Friend will excuse me, I will continue.

With the failure of European leaders and Finance Ministers truly to grasp the nettle, the liquidity problems faced by Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are becoming ever more deep-seated. It is very difficult for Angela Merkel in Germany—as someone who has German blood running through his veins, I accept that. I appreciate that her domestic political position appears ever more precarious, because the EU’s economic powerhouse should have ceded control of the deepening crisis to the European Central Bank. The ECB’s mandate could, and perhaps should, be to provide market intervention to restore and maintain confidence on behalf of all solvent eurozone economies, but in her actions to date, Mrs Merkel has indicated that the politics are just too difficult for her nation, which remembers the days of hyperinflation during the early part of the Weimar Republic. Furthermore, all this requires, as ever within the EU, bypassing democratic safeguards, and it potentially involves unfathomably vast quantities of central bank support, with potentially hazardous medium-term economic consequences.

[Ian Paisley]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mark Field]

I hope that the hon. Gentleman will excuse me; I know that others want to speak.

The twin lessons of the economic depression in the 1930s are that avoiding catastrophe requires swift action and that once a process is under way we should not worry unduly about overkill. It is better to pump too much liquidity into the system, rather than inadequate amounts. A financial system in free fall requires active central bank intervention, however irrational the collapse of market confidence. Nevertheless, in the absence of a central bank for the 17-nation eurozone that has real political clout or, more important still, sufficient funds to provide comprehensive cover in a liquidity crisis, it is regrettable that the UK is now expected to stand ready to bolster the IMF. The IMF seems to be the only institution that can bail out countries that are close to default—Italy and Spain, for example. My hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay is absolutely right that there is disingenuous thinking and talking within the eurozone. The reality is that if Italy or Spain has a problem, the European Central Bank and the European financial stability facility cannot address it. Clearly, such a problem must be addressed by the IMF.

Without stable financial markets, there is little hope of the sustained growth essential to economic recovery. The UK economy is a global leader in the financial services sector, but it is especially prone as a consequence to the adverse impact of uncertainty on worldwide financial markets. No UK taxpayer will stand by and watch with any sense of satisfaction as unimaginably large sums of money or guarantees are given to bail out the banking system.

As has been pointed out, our Prime Minister and the Chancellor have repeatedly vowed that there will be no further bail-outs of the eurozone. However, in the event of a collapse in market confidence for Italy or Spain, the UK, as a founding member of the IMF, will almost certainly be expected to increase both its absolute funding and its guarantee facilities to the fund, which is an extremely unpalatable prospect. However, I also accept that a UK failure to act would not only have immediate, serious consequences for the global financial services sector, but amount to an abdication of our responsibilities as a mercantile nation in the international field of trade and commerce.

As MP for the City of London, I reluctantly accept that I have no choice but broadly to support the UK Government’s proposal to underwrite further funds to the IMF. Nevertheless, I regard that as a matter that must be addressed not by the Executive alone but also here in Parliament. If the UK taxpayer is to be further exposed to IMF loans and guarantees, that must happen only after a statement from the Prime Minister outlining why such a course of action is in the national interest, after a full parliamentary debate and as the consequence of an affirmative vote in Parliament. In my view, nothing less will do.

I know that many other Members want to speak. There is much more that I would like to say, but I will touch on a point that my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay made regarding the wisdom behind the UK Government’s enthusiastic promotion of a headlong move towards fiscal union in the eurozone. I say to the Minister that we should be extremely careful what we wish for. Such a development would embolden the eurozone, even in its apparent weakness, to embark on a rapid and radical political power grab throughout the EU. Alarm bells would ring in the City of London. It would be very bad news for this country, and we should not stand by and let it happen without ensuring that our national interests are properly served.

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[Mr Chope]

My hon. Friend makes a good point. We were told that the IMF would help Ireland and that we could help Ireland and influence its economic policy through the IMF. We were also told that we needed to give Ireland a £3 billion loan so that we could have even more influence, but I do not think that it is written in any agreement that to have yet more influence we need to reduce the interest below the rate agreed at the outset. The fact that the Irish have drawn down on the loan shows that they do not look a gift horse in the mouth. They realise that this is a great opportunity.

Let us consider the opportunities in Ireland. I got my assistant to research the interest rates available to small businesses in Ireland at the moment, so this information is from yesterday. Allied Irish Banks is offering loans of up to €100,000 to small businesses at a “competitive rate” of 4.4% variable. New and early-stage businesses under three years old can get that money. Now, I do not know what it is like for my hon. Friends, but in my constituency it is almost impossible for businesses to get a loan from the bank at a rate of 4.4%, if they can get one at all. We know that Allied Irish Banks is the beneficiary of a £3.5 billion bail-out. We are giving Ireland money that it is using to subsidise its banks, which in turn are subsidising its small businesses to compete unfavourably against ours.

[Ian Paisley]

I agree with the thrust of what the hon. Gentleman is saying. Does he agree that it is actually far worse? The Irish state bank, the National Asset Management Agency, holds £14 billion of property in this city, which it can dispose of any time it wants and put the money back into its own national coffers. Is it not time that we had a Select Committee inquiry into NAMA’s activities in the United Kingdom jurisdiction?

[Mr Chope]

That sounds to me like a good point. People should start selling their assets. That is what families must do if they get into difficulties. We have to think about selling assets, which is what countries in debt should be doing.

Another example is the Bank of Ireland, which received €5.2 billion in the banking bail-out, and which is offering interest rates of 5.24%. More than half of all loan decisions are made on the spot and 87% of applications are approved. Would that we had similar arrangements in the United Kingdom. By comparison, HSBC was offering small business loans yesterday with a starting interest rate of 7.9%, which is obviously only for the most favoured customers.

Can the Government explain why we are reducing the rate of interest on the Irish loan? When the Bill went through the House, I voted against it, but it passed on the basis that we would make a significant profit on the interest. Now that the Irish are drawing down on the loan, surely we should know what the interest rate is. Is there any other organisation that can go to the bank and get a loan while the bank manager says, “Don’t worry, we’ll agree the interest rate later”? It seems reckless in the extreme.

My final point deals with the treaty establishing the European stability mechanism. Most people do not realise that the European stability mechanism is a new international financial institution that will have international immunity, and that it will be funded by the 17 members of the European Union. What will Ireland pay? Its subscription will be €11.145 billion, which is about £10 billion. Another way of putting it is that we are lending money to Ireland so that Ireland can, in turn, pay its subscription to the European stability mechanism. It is a farce.