CPI/RPI Pensions Uprating

Harriett Baldwin Excerpts

Thursday 1st March 2012 Commons Chamber

[John McDonnell]

I am pleased that the National Pensioners Convention supports the quadruple lock, because that is what I have proposed in the House when we have debated this matter previously. It would come as a bit of a surprise if the NPC were to support the switch to CPI, given that a number of its members handcuffed themselves and blocked the road outside Parliament last week in protest against the measure. That is a form of direct action that I support.

The switch has had an impact on millions of people, as I have said. That is because, historically, the difference between CPI and RPI has been between 0.7% and 0.9 %. When the Government introduced their statutory instrument to force through the change, the Office for Budget Responsibility assessed that the difference would be 1.1%. Since then, in November, the OBR published a working paper that indicated that the gap would widen, and so increased its forecast for the long-run difference between CPI and RPI to 1.4%. What that means in practical terms for people’s pensions is that after 15 years a CPI-indexed pension would be 17.4% lower than an RPI-indexed pension, and after 20 years it would be between 23% to 25% less. That is a significant amount. That was confirmed by the much-cited Hutton report on pensions, which stated:

“This change in the indexation measure, from RPI to CPI, may have reduced the value of benefits to scheme members by around 15% on average. When this change is combined with other reforms to date across the major schemes the value to current members of reformed schemes with CPI indexation is, on average, around 25% less than pre-reform schemes with RPI indexation.”

Many hon. Members will have received representations from people working in different jobs about what the switch means to them. Let me cite some examples to give the House a flavour of why there is such depth of feeling out in the country on this issue. Let us take the case of Jim Singer himself, the creator of the e-petition. Jim has worked for the Department for Work and Pensions as a partnership development manager in the east of Scotland, based in Aberdeen. He has worked for the civil service for 35 years. He has just turned 60, and he will retire on a salary of £29,000.

As a result of the pay policy imposed by his Department and the Government, Jim has had a pay increase of only 3% in the last five years. That has had the effect of reducing the value of his final salary by around 25%, as against RPI inflation over the past five years. Even if his pay had kept pace with the Government’s favoured indicator, CPI, his final salary would have been 13% higher. That in turn means that his pension will start at a level of over £3,000 a year lower than if his pay had kept pace with RPI, and that his lump sum will be cut by over £9,500. So, he will have a £1,600 pension loss and a £4,960 lump sum under CPI. In addition, the switch from RPI to CPI is likely to cost Jim nearly £23,000 in pension over a normal retirement. Jim’s wife, Sheena, worked for British Telecom and has a pension which is also affected by the switch from RPI to CPI. She stands to lose £9,000 over a 20-year retirement.

[Harriett Baldwin (West Worcestershire) (Con)]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for giving us the range of examples. Is it his understanding that it is not his party’s policy to fight the next general election on a promise to revert to RPI?

[John McDonnell]

I scoured the Welfare Reform Bill Committee discussions on that point, and as I understand it, those on the Labour Front Bench made it clear that they were not going to write their manifesto in advance of 2015. The hon. Lady can be assured, however, that I shall be pressing for that policy to be adopted.

Let me press on with Jim’s example. The guide to his pension—the “principal civil service pension scheme, classic”, as it is called—was published by the civil service in 2009. It explained that his pension would be “index-linked”. On page 24, the guide explained that this index-linking meant that

“your pension is guaranteed to increase in line with inflation, as measured by the retail price index”.

When he heard that the Government had changed the index-linking of his pension to CPI, he wrote to the Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General, the right hon. Member for Horsham (Mr Maude). He received the following reply:

“In hindsight, because the Minister has the discretion to decide which indicator best reflects the general level of prices, perhaps the booklet should have been drafted differently”.

That gives no satisfaction to Jim, who has lost so much money. He worked for 35 years with a guarantee of RPI, then, within a year of reaching his 60th birthday, the Government reneged on that guarantee. Over his retirement, the switch from RPI to CPI will not just be a minor change to an inflation indicator. For him, the switch will cost thousands.

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[Harriett Baldwin (West Worcestershire) (Con)]

Thank you for allowing me to speak in this important debate, Madam Deputy Speaker. I congratulate the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) and the Backbench Business Committee on organising the provision of parliamentary time for discussion of this topic. Having been a professional pension fund manager myself, I leapt at the opportunity to speak today. It is not often that, on a Thursday afternoon, we experience the excitement of discussing the difference between the geometric and the arithmetic mean in indexing. I thought I would put in a few words, as I also represent a constituency that is inhabited by a higher than average number of pensioners.

As a former pension fund manager, I recall the days when Britain had a pension fund system that was the envy of the world. We had a terrific private sector-led system, and workers in the public sector were also in very good schemes. I believe that Britain’s leadership in that regard began to unravel in the first Labour Budget after the general election in 1997, when the then Chancellor imposed a tax on pension schemes. It was pretty apparent at the time that that would undermine a private sector pension system which, as I have said, used to be the envy of the world.

[Jeremy Corbyn]

I think the hon. Lady is in danger of misreading history. The Social Security Act 1986 promoted the destruction of occupational pension schemes, promoted personal private pension schemes, and eventually led to a gross mis-selling of pensions which had to be corrected by the incoming Government in 1997. I think the hon. Lady needs to take her historical narrative a little further back.

[Harriett Baldwin]

The hon. Gentleman has clearly forgotten the imposition of a tax on private pension schemes in that first Labour Budget of 1997, which I think many people realised at the time would be a recurrent year-on-year tax that would lead to the erosion of private pension funding over time. Private companies then acted very rationally. Many of them ceased to offer defined benefit pension schemes.

Let me give some figures which I take to be rough estimates. There are approximately 29 million people in Britain’s work force today, 23 million of whom are employed in the private sector. I was shocked to learn that only 3.2 million of those 23 million were currently active members of a pension scheme in which the employer makes any contribution. That contrasts with the position in the public sector, in which about 5.5 million of the 6 million employees are members of pension schemes. That is the proportion that we should aspire to in terms of pension provision throughout the work force. I know that our pensions Minister aspires very much towards movement in that direction.

[Andrea Leadsom]

Does my hon. Friend agree that, many years ago, public sector salaries were lower and therefore pension provision was always higher, but over the last decade or more salary levels have equalised, and in many cases the lowest-paid public sector worker now earns more than the lowest-paid private sector worker and has a pension that the private sector worker can only dream of?

[Harriett Baldwin]

Personally, I aspire to a future in which all Britain’s pensioners can rely on a secure retirement income, which will come from three main elements.

I welcome measures taken by the pensions Minister and the Chancellor to provide a triple-lock guarantee: the linking of the basic state pension, and increases in that pension, to CPI, average earnings or 2.5%, whichever is the highest. That, I think, is an extremely robust foundation. As the Minister knows, I look forward to the inclusion in the Queen’s Speech of further legislation simplifying the state pension system, eliminating the means-testing deterrent to saving and creating a stable, predictable and inflation-linked state pension that will be the foundation for a basic level of income in retirement.

Of course, we need to aspire to be a country where everyone has an additional employment-related pension. About 12 million people are already pensioners, and we welcome the fact that their inflation-linked increase will rise by over 5% this year: I believe that that is the largest cash increase in the history of the state pension. This Government’s budgeting decisions are therefore focusing on the needs of current pensioners, and for future pensioners the largest employers will from October start to auto-enrol their employees into employment-linked schemes. That measure enjoys cross-party support, and it will mark the beginning of a savings programme that is estimated to bring in a further 5 million to 8 million pension savers and add a substantial sum to the savings of this country. Otherwise, we will be woefully under-pensioned in future. We are currently a very under-pensioned country. It is tragic that our country has eroded its position in respect of pensions so much. In 1997, we were one of the leading pension countries in the world, but we now have a lot of catching up to do. I welcome all the steps the pensions Minister is putting in place to improve the situation.

Having mentioned the triple lock and auto-enrolment, I shall now make a few points about the difference between CPI and RPI. We all know that inflation is the big enemy of the pensioner, as nothing erodes retirement income more. Lower inflation results in less erosion of retirement income, of course, but all pensioners must understand that they need to protect their fixed retirement income from inflation.

CPI is the inflation measure that we have instructed the Bank of England to target and to average out over time. I therefore think the Bank of England should, perhaps, consider moving its own pension scheme on to a CPI link. That scheme is currently linked to RPI, but it would increase everybody’s confidence in the Bank’s long-term ability to meet its CPI target if it were to adopt that measure for its pensions. That is a cheeky aside, however.

Neither the RPI nor the CPI measure will ever accurately reflect the inflation that pensioners experience. We have talked about the fact that mortgage interest is not included in the RPI basket. Interest rates fell dramatically in 2008 and that led to the RPI being negative in 2009—it was minus 1.4%. Do we want to follow an index that results in people having reduced income in some years? In that instance, we decided that we did not want that so we maintained a zero rate, but people still complained to me that their pension had not increased that year.

[Mr John Leech (Manchester, Withington) (LD)]

Does the hon. Lady agree that people might have more confidence in the Government’s decision to move to CPI if we were to use CPI for all other calculations, such as train fare increases?

[Harriett Baldwin]

I do not think that either the CPI or the RPI basket accurately represents inflation as experienced by pensioners. Most of them will have paid off their mortgage by the time they retire. Also, the CPI basket does not include council tax. Following the 100% increase in council tax under the previous Government, many council taxes have been frozen for the past few years. That is helpful for pensioners, as council tax represents a substantial proportion of their outgoings.

Food also represents a significant element of pensioners’ costs, and food inflation has been very high recently. Over the past 20 or 30 years, however, it has been largely on a downward trend, and food now represents a smaller proportion of overall costs than it did in the past. The cost of fuel and of heating the home is also an important factor for pensioners. That has also been rising sharply. Neither CPI nor RPI accurately represent pensioners’ experience of inflation.

[Grahame M. Morris (Easington) (Lab)]

Does the hon. Lady therefore support the GMB proposal for a bespoke pensions index that more truly reflects the cost of living of pensioners? As my hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) said, they are not generally active shoppers who can readily switch between electricity and gas supply companies, for instance.

[Harriett Baldwin]

I certainly accept the point that CPI implies that people are active shoppers. Most of the pensioners I have come across are extremely good active shoppers, however.

Every individual faces a unique rate of inflation. We have given the Bank of England the task of managing the CPI rate. It is therefore sensible to use that measure for assessing pension increases.

We have talked about the high proportion of Britons who do not have any pension savings for retirement, the fact that many private companies have closed down their pension schemes, and the fact that Britain has become woefully under-pensioned. Giving private sector companies the flexibility to shift their index and linking pensions to CPI are both wise policies. They serve to put the overall public sector pension liability on a more sustainable footing, which is important for all future public sector workers. They also make the bargain between those with no pension provision and those who enjoy final salary, inflation-linked pensions fairer.

The Chancellor and the pensions Minister have faced a series of difficult choices, and they have made the right decisions. I believe the new measures will lead to more people across the work force saving for a comfortable retirement, which is an objective we all want to achieve.

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[Gregg McClymont (Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East) (Lab)]

The debate has been interesting so far, with the temperature raised a little at the end by the hon. Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb). [Interruption.] My pronunciation of the hon. Gentleman’s constituency is almost as good as the attempt by the hon. Member for Gloucester (Richard Graham) to pronounce Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

I pay tribute to my hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) for securing the debate, which has covered several matters. I want to touch on four in particular. The first is the notion of a broken promise, which was mentioned by my hon. Friend, as well as by my hon. Friends the Members for Easington (Grahame M. Morris) and for Bolton North East (Mr Crausby).

Before the general election, the then shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, the right hon. Member for Runnymede and Weybridge (Mr Hammond), stated in a letter on 27 April 2010 that the Conservative party

“has no plans to change the current index-linking of public sector pensions in payment. We agree with the view that the right to indexation of pensions already accrued is part of the accrued pension rights and those rights will be protected.”

That is at the heart of the debate and of the legal challenge by the trade unions. My hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington emphasised that point and also the cost to 16 million pensioners—12 million in the public sector and 4 million in the private sector. He rightly paid tribute to Mr Jim Singer, who played such a big part in pushing the e-petition. I note that Mr Singer’s pensions booklet referred to indexing by RPI and that, according to my hon. Friend, he is likely over the course of a normal retirement to lose up to £23,000. Clearly, that is a lot of money, and it shows why there is such interest in the matter.

Much of the debate revolves around whether CPI is an accurate measure of inflation for pensioners. The subject was debated as recently as last week and the Minister made it clear that the Government view CPI as the most appropriate measure of price inflation for the purpose.

[Harriett Baldwin]

Will the hon. Gentleman confirm my understanding that it is not the Opposition’s current policy to restore the link to RPI?

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[Gregg McClymont]

Alas, the hon. Gentleman must wait for the next Labour party manifesto to satisfy his curiosity.

Clearly, the issue is whether CPI is an accurate measure of inflation. The Government and the Minister are clear that it is, but some important authorities, including the Royal Statistical Society, have emphasised that CPI fails to reflect the spending patterns of pensioners and the rising costs they face, especially housing costs, which were mentioned by some of my hon. Friends. The UK Statistics Authority has indicated that it does not believe that CPI should become the primary measure of data inflation until housing costs are included.

I know from our previous discussions that the Minister will look closely at the consumer prices advisory committee proposals on adding housing costs to CPI. We await that with great interest. Heating, which was also mentioned by a number of my hon. Friends, is also important in that context. Heating costs have been rising fast, which could mean that pensioners face higher inflation on average than other groups in society, which is significant given the removal of £100 from the winter fuel allowance.

In the end, this is a political decision. The UK Statistics Authority observed last year:

“Questions about compensation, who to compensate and what for, are straightforwardly political questions, not for statisticians.”

We cannot support adopting that approach in the long term. In just five of the last 20 years has RPI been lower than CPI. As was mentioned by my hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington, the Office for Budget Responsibility November economic and fiscal outlook states that the long-run difference between RPI and CPI is likely to be 1.4% rather than the current 0.7%.

[Harriett Baldwin]

On the hon. Gentleman’s last point, can I therefore clarify that it is a 2015 Labour manifesto pledge to restore the link to RPI?

[Gregg McClymont]

The hon. Lady’s desire to write the Labour party manifesto three years before a likely general election is admirable, but I cannot advance on the answer I gave to the hon. Member for Gloucester.

Whether CPI is an accurate measure of inflation is an issue—the hon. Lady made important points on heating and housing—but in the few minutes remaining, I want to raise some broader questions. We can talk about CPI or RPI pensions uprating in isolation. The uprating of the state pension using CPI, which happened for the first time this year, is one thing, but as was indicated in the debate, the flat-rate, single-tier state pension, to which the Minister is committed, is important to the debate, as is the future of NEST.

I do not want to misquote the hon. Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin), but I believe she said that she was looking forward in the Queen’s Speech to legislation on a single-tier, flat-rate state pension. The Opposition are hopeful that the Minister can move in that direction quickly. I wonder whether the Treasury has a significant role in that. Perhaps negotiations must continue before we can get there. The Opposition will be keen to consider very closely such proposals when they come to the House.

NEST, which has been mentioned throughout the debate, has a huge role to play in moving towards a more sustainable pension system. The Opposition are disappointed at the delay in the staging dates for the move to auto-enrolment. It is not just a question of the companies: contributions from both the Treasury and employers will be lost for those saving into a pension for the first time.

Finally, the hon. Member for Aberconwy emphasised the private pension system. Both he and the hon. Member for West Worcestershire suggested that all the difficulties in the private pensions world have arrived since 1997.