Jobs and Growth

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Thursday 17th May 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

We have to have public sector pensions that are affordable. The truth is that people are living longer in retirement, which is a good thing, and that if we want to maintain generous pension provision for firefighters and others we have to make reforms that mean the country can afford that. So, the answer to the hon. Gentleman’s question is yes, and we have been in a long and good negotiation with the Fire Brigades Union and others on those reforms. As I have said, we seek to make public sector pensions affordable and it is pretty striking if the tone of interventions from the Opposition is going to be that we do not have support for this far-reaching reform that will put public service pensions on a sustainable footing. Opposition Members are going to have to ask themselves whether they speak in this House for their tax-paying constituents or for the unions that sponsor them.

We look forward to hearing, in the wind-ups, from the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (Mr Byrne), whom we welcome to his place. Perhaps he will tell us what Labour’s attitude to these Bills will be. We are sorry that he has been removed from his role as Labour’s policy chief. He is yet another Labour politician who has found that their career takes a knock when they try to tell their party some hard truths. He did extremely well in his new job of handing notes to the shadow Chancellor as he spoke today, but there was a time when he wrote his own notes rather than just handing them. There was the time when he wrote that note saying, “I’m sorry, there’s no money left”, but his party’s only message is to spend and borrow more. To be fair to him, he is the politician who tried to tell Labour to get serious about welfare reform and about dealing with the deficit. He was famous in my Department for the very precise memo he sent to civil servants on how to prepare his morning cappuccino and his afternoon espresso. How ironic that what did for him was his attempt to get Labour to wake up and smell the coffee. [Laughter.] I have to say that it was quite late last night when I thought of that one.

Who replaces the right hon. Gentleman as policy chief? The new policy chief for the Labour party is the hon. Member for Dagenham and Rainham (Jon Cruddas). We did some research on how he might approach the job and we found these illuminating remarks from a few weeks ago:

“What interests me is not policy as such; rather the search for political sentiment, voice and language; of general definition within a national story. Less ‘The Spirit Level’, more ‘What is England’.”

Well, that is clear then. Perhaps when the Opposition find out “What is England” they will let us all have the answer. The striking thing is that there is no policy from the Opposition at a time when tough decisions need to be taken about our country’s future and when far-reaching reforms need to be made to secure its prosperity.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

The Chancellor is back on politics, where he is happiest. He got through some parts of the Queen’s Speech in about three paragraphs or sentences, I think. On policy, why will he not listen for once and do what we are saying? Why will he not extend to all small companies taking on new workers the national insurance discount, which is nowhere near being taken up yet, instead of dismissing that suggestion? It is a good idea, so why does he not take it on? Why does he not extend his initial idea and make it effective for once?

[Mr Osborne]

First, as I have said, we have used the money available to us in the balanced Budget to cut the small companies tax rate, which the hon. Gentleman wanted to go up. [Interruption.] He says, “Additional to that”; Labour’s policy was to increase the small companies tax rate. We have not done that. We have cut national insurance across the board for low and middle-paid employees by getting rid of Labour’s jobs tax—that applies whether they are employed in small or larger companies—and we have frozen business rates for smaller companies. So, we have done all those things, but I completely agree that we need to do more to help smaller companies by reducing the red tape burden on them and by helping to get credit to them. That is what the national loan guarantee scheme that was launched at the end of March is doing right now.

IMF

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Monday 23rd April 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Yes, I can. IMF loans are repaid and they always have been in the past. No country has lost money giving resources to the IMF and such loans are repaid with interest. Indeed, if I can find the quotation—[Interruption.] It is worth waiting for, because it is from the shadow Chancellor. When the shadow Chancellor was in the Treasury, he said that IMF lending to

“countries is invariably repaid with interest.”

That is what he said in 2003. I can give my hon. Friend the assurance that loans to the IMF are made to the most creditworthy institution in the world and are repaid.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

Last summer, the Financial Secretary, I think, said that alongside a quota increase, contributions under the new agreement to borrow would be reduced. Can the Chancellor tell the House whether they have been?

Oral Answers to Questions

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Tuesday 6th March 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I have been very encouraged to hear about the success of companies in my hon. Friend’s constituency, including the two that he mentioned. We will provide further details later this year on the R and D “above the line” tax credit, on which we have listened to representations from industry and Members of Parliament. In the vicinity of my hon. Friend’s constituency, we also have the enterprise zone i54, which will start up in April. More generally, this is a week when 20,000 new jobs have been announced by Tesco and we have heard the great news that Nissan will produce a new car in the UK. There are some encouraging developments in the British economy.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

Is the Chancellor not aware that his measures are not working? In the last quarter for which we have figures, set against a 67,000 drop in public sector employment there was a welcome but very modest increase of only 5,000 jobs in the private sector. Why not do something bold and positive in the Budget, such as taking one of our proposals, rather than rejecting it out of pride, to expand the national insurance holiday to cover all small companies that take on new employees, rather than just the relatively small number of new small companies?

[Mr Osborne]

I have noticed in the Budget representations from Labour Members that they are always very good at suggesting things we can spend money on but never have any ideas about how to save money, despite leaving us with the largest budget deficit in our peacetime history. They are all over the place: one week it is a tax cut, the next it is a spending increase. The truth is that we need economic credibility. The budget deficit is coming down but it is still far too high. Of course, we will not have the unfunded giveaways that got this country into a mess under the previous Labour Government.

Financial Services Bill

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Monday 6th February 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

We can explore this at greater length in Committee, but I say to the right hon. Gentleman now that we are trying to avoid a situation in which different people in the Bank think they have a direct line to the Chancellor. We are trying to require the Bank to resolve its internal differences, and we are creating various committees, balancing the membership between external and internal members, but we absolutely see a central role for the Governor of the Bank—and I do not make any apologies for that.

I was not in the room when some of these conversations happened in recent years, but as far as I can see, and as has been reported since, it is clear that personal relations between the Bank Governor and some of the very senior members of the Government completely broke down. That is not a situation we want to see in the future, and I think that the person who does my job and the person who does the job of the Governor of the Bank of England have an obligation to get on with each other and maintain the personal relationship; that is a very important part of both our jobs. No amount of legislation or MOU—[Interruption.] The right hon. Member for Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls) says that it is not about getting on with each other. Frankly, it is about working at this very important relationship at the top of our financial system, and not getting into a situation in which those involved are not able to pick up the phone and talk to each other. Yes, of course we are institutionalising the arrangement, creating memorandums of understanding and so on, but I do not want to detract from the fact that there is also a personal responsibility for the Chancellor of the day and for the Bank of England Governor to ensure that they can work together in the national interest.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

I hate to intrude on this Socratic dialogue between the Chancellor and my right hon. Friend the Member for Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls), but can the Chancellor not see that in these critical decisions there will be differences? I do not draw a direct comparison with the military, where the Chief of the Defence Staff has a right of appeal or a direct line of communication with the Prime Minister, but in these critical decisions it is not enough for a hard-headed, narrow-minded or too-forceful Government to insist on a point of view. A release valve is needed to reach a balanced judgment, and the No. 2s in all the crucial areas should have the right to come straight to the Chancellor. Good foresight and good judgment are involved in that.

[Mr Osborne]

The other point that I would make—the Financial Secretary to the Treasury is reminding me of it—is that the Treasury sits on all those committees as a non-voting member. It is in on all the discussions, with a Treasury official sitting in on and understanding the debate.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ed Balls]

My very clear advice to the Chancellor is that when he gives people a clear statutory responsibility for a particular function and legislates for three deputy governors who are the heads of individual agencies, he should also design his crisis resolution and decision-making procedures so that his experts are in the room and he can hear the array of their views. The idea that it is better for the Chancellor to require the Bank to resolve such issues internally and come to him with one voice—one Governor, one decision maker—is a flawed structure of regulation. The point, however, is that that is not what the Bill intends. It intends for the FCA and PRA to be important institutions, in which case the Chancellor should get them in the room.

[Mr Robinson]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that the further decision to install the Governor for eight years will make the inherent difficulty of dealing with only one person more difficult?

[Ed Balls]

I understand my hon. Friend’s point, but to be honest I do not have strong views on that. The reality is that there was not cross-party support or support more widely in civic society for Bank of England independence when we established it. The Conservatives voted against it. In those circumstances, it would have been difficult for the then Government to pass legislation for one eight-year term—there would have been a lot of opposition to the idea of giving one unelected individual such power for an eight-year term. This Bill moves us not only from a four-year to an eight-year term, but gives one individual massively more power than they ever had. That is what concerns me.

Oral Answers to Questions

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Tuesday 24th January 2012 Commons Chamber

[Miss Smith]

My hon. Friend is absolutely correct. Our policies have kept the UK ahead of the curve. He and others in our House need only look to the French downgrade last week to see the value of the credibility we have restored to the UK economy.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

Is not the Minister aware that the figures show the total failure of the Government’s economic policy—not only on the deficit, but on all the contributory factors? Employment is down, way below their target, and so are growth and private sector employment. On every key index, their policies have failed. They own this policy, they are failing—when will they change it?

[Miss Smith]

We have a plan A, to which we are sticking because it is working—unlike the policies proposed by the Opposition, which have yet to emerge in any credible detail whatsoever.

The Economy

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Tuesday 6th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills (Mr Edward Davey)]

I do not think anyone doubts the serious economic challenges facing the UK, Europe and the wider world. The serious tone of today’s debate reflects that. So it is important in such a crucial debate that we can agree on the economic and financial figures and forecasts, not least because in the past, Parliament, commentators and the markets have questioned Governments’ forecasts. In the past, Governments jealously guarded control of the forecasts and used that control to tweak, fiddle and fix the figures. As we can read in the previous Chancellor’s memoirs, the pressure to fiddle the figures is never greater than in the tough times. By giving responsibility for forecasts to the Office for Budget Responsibility, this Government have changed all that. The OBR figures are independent; the OBR figures tell it straight; so these figures command respect. I challenge Labour Members to say so now if they do not accept the OBR’s figures.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

It is not a question of not accepting the integrity of the Office for Budget Responsibility. The question is the reliability of the figures stemming from the credibility of the organisation. Why does it get everything so wrong all the time? Is it not up to the job? Does it have a lack of expertise, or is it just that it is being asked to fix figures that have no meaning in the real world?

[Mr Davey]

Given that that comes from a former Treasury Minister in a Government who often got their figures wrong, I do not think that the OBR needs to listen to that. It is absolutely clear that the Labour party is taking the OBR’s figures seriously. It is significant that we can at last have a debate without the numbers being the issue—without the spin and the game playing that so debased the House’s deliberations in the past. The Labour party’s acceptance—grudging or otherwise—of our or the OBR’s forecasts presents Labour Members with a problem. Why do they not accept the underlying explanation of the OBR’s forecasts?

This House has heard that the OBR’s forecasts changed not because the Government’s policy has gone wrong, but because of three reasons outside this Government’s control: imported inflation, with higher oil and commodity prices; the huge uncertainty caused by problems in the eurozone; and, finally, the boom and bust that Labour once arrogantly told us they had abolished, which was worse under Labour than anyone had previously thought. The Labour party has to face up to this reality, yet the shadow Chancellor did not. This Government have, and have made the difficult choices in doing so.

Our strategy of loose monetary policy and fiscal consolidation, backed with some of the most ambitious supply-side reforms in generations, was not just right when we first announced it after the election; it is right now. Indeed, recent events have given even stronger confirmation that it is right. That is why, despite the changed forecast, our interest rates remain so low while countries all around us have seen their credit rating slashed, downgraded or put on negative watch. The markets have shown their confidence in the UK with the interest on our debt falling to historic lows.

In what was probably the most remarkable part of today’s debate, the shadow Chancellor was astonishingly dismissive of the low interest rates and our achievements. Never mind that Italy and Spain have seen their rates shoot above 6% while ours have fallen towards 2%; never mind the benefit to mortgage holders, businesses and taxpayers of that achievement. The shadow Chancellor seems to believe that the UK is in a liquidity trap—despite the fact that we have a credible central bank, despite the fact that quantitative easing has been judged effective and despite the major credit easing announced in the autumn statement. In the early 1930s, ahead of Keynesian rearmament, a monetary expansion with low rates combined with fiscal consolidation produced a significant recovery. Is that not the lesson from history that the shadow Chancellor simply has not learned?

Of course, we could have opted for another growth policy—some call it plan B—involving unfunded tax cuts, more borrowing and more spending. The details of that are never clear, but the consequences are higher interest rates. [Interruption.] Labour positions itself as the party of high interest rates, although a 1% rise in market interest rates adds £10 billion to mortgage bills—meaning that the average family with a mortgage will pay £1,000 more—and increases business rates by £7 billion and taxpayers’ costs by £21 billion. That would be the price of Labour government. [Interruption.]

I have looked around Europe for Governments or mainstream political parties that have opted for a policy such as plan B, but they are in short supply. Other Governments are now having to address their budget deficits—[Interruption.]

Northern Rock

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Monday 21st November 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Order. There is extensive interest in this statement, which I am keen to accommodate, but I remind the House that there is another statement to follow. Therefore, brevity is of the essence.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

Is the Financial Secretary not aware that this is an appalling deal, and at quite the wrong time for the British taxpayer? Is he not aware that the European Commission cannot sanction the imposition of that date? The worst time to sell a company is when it is loss-making and when—as in this case—it has prospects of profits to come. He should have waited. It is the timing that is being opposed, and which has nothing to do with the European Union, but everything to do with the collapse of this Government’s economic policy.

[Mr Hoban]

The hon. Gentleman is well known for his business experience, but what we need is to get the best deal for the taxpayer and Northern Rock. The advice that we received from our independent advisers indicated that this was the best time. As I mentioned in my statement, we got a price-to-book ratio of about 0.8, which compares with other banks, which are currently trading on a price-to-book multiple of 0.5. That sounds to me like a good deal for the taxpayer.

Jobs and Growth

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Wednesday 12th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for South West Norfolk (Elizabeth Truss). Her points about competitiveness in the long term and the immediate future are valid. However, all of us who have been in industry know without a doubt that long periods of deflation, inactivity, insufficiency of demand and cuts hurt competitiveness. That is the trouble with the Government’s policy.

By sleight of hand and cleverness in debate, the Chancellor seems to have turned the debate from being about what the Government’s plan originally aimed to do into being about debt and interest rate management. We are all pleased that there has been some success in those areas, but at what cost has that success come? It has come at the cost of missing the central aim of the plan that the Chancellor set out when he came into office in June last year: to reduce the deficit within this Parliament. It is quite obvious that we are not getting anywhere near that. Indeed, every single indicator in the plan is going into reverse and being missed. The unemployment figures that came out today are disastrous and will make the plan cost a lot more. We are overshooting the borrowing requirement, which was meant to be reduced, by £46 billion before we even come on to the increased costs of higher unemployment and the benefits that go with it.

[Robert Flello]

Will my hon. Friend give way?

[Mr Robinson]

I will give way in a moment.

Inherent in the plan are further unnecessary deflation and cuts in the economy. The growth plan was essential to the original plan of stabilising and reducing the deficit. I agreed with that entirely, as I am sure did all Members, particularly the Government Members who speak about the private sector. However, it relied on the private sector getting going and increasing investment, output and net exports. Every one of those things is going into reverse.

After I have given way to my hon. Friend, I will come back to that point and deal with this week’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research report.

[Robert Flello]

My hon. Friend is making a very good point about growth in the private sector. His constituency, like mine, will have businesses that could export because they have order books for three years, but cannot because the banks will not lend them any money to solve their cash-flow issues. They cannot do the work or fulfil their contractual orders because they do not have the working capital to do so due to the nonsense that is going on.

[Mr Robinson]

I could not agree more with my hon. Friend. I will come to the problem of bank lending towards the end of the few minutes that I have.

To see the central failure of the plan and why it is so obviously not working, one must just look at what the NIESR has said about the progress of manufacturing, on which the plan relies:

“manufacturing output—the biggest contributor to industrial production—fell for the third month in a row, suggesting the engine of the economic recovery had shifted into reverse.”

I do not think that anybody can doubt that. The plan is not working, like it or not. Manufacturing output fell 0.3% between July and August, meaning that it has fallen for three months in a row. At the beginning of this year it was increasing by 6.1%, but that has dropped to 1% on an annual basis. We are looking at a catastrophe.

The Government attempt to blame all this on the previous Labour Government, as if we created the world crisis, which we did not. We have to find a way of yanking them out of that mindset. It is quite clear to anybody looking at the situation as we go into the second year of their plan that they own this economic policy. It is their economic policy and their plan that are on trial, not what the Labour Government did or did not do five, six, seven or eight years ago. It is their plan that is not working. I do not know why everybody on the Government Benches cannot see that that is a simple fact. Whether we did the right thing is totally irrelevant to the present situation. The question is: is the Government’s plan working? It is quite clear that it is not. I will willingly give way to the Chief Secretary if he wants to intervene on that point. Realising that, the Government are trying to move the debate to another issue, which is not the central issue.

The Government are also trying to introduce some measures that will help, and they have gone for monetary easing and credit easing. The trouble is, the history of monetary easing does not suggest that it gets into the real economy. Indeed, when the Governor of the Bank of England gave that remarkable interview to two economic journalists following the announcement of the £75 billion increase in monetary easing, he could not say that it would get into the real economy. He said, “That’s none of my business,” but of course it is. He said, “I will lend it to the banks, what they do with it is up to them.” We know as a fact from previous experience that it does not get to the high street or into the real economy. Unless measures are taken to direct that money effectively in some way or another, against the Governor’s explicit policy of not interfering in capital markets at all, it will not work. We know that Project Merlin similarly failed.

The Chancellor has now come up with a great plan for credit easing, but who is going to administer it and dress up the bonds involved? Will there be a composite element of different companies? Who will decide who gets the money and who does not? Perhaps the Chief Secretary will enlighten us when he winds up the debate, but there is nothing concrete about the plan. It is just an idea that has been floated, like Merlin or monetary easing. It sounds good—if we could get small companies in my constituency and that of my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent South (Robert Flello) back working with money, it would be great. We would all back it, as we are in principle.

It is no good the Government believing that they cannot embark on capital investment right throughout the economy. Of course the plans will take time to introduce, although if they had been started a year and a half ago, when we pointed out to the Government what they should be doing, they would be ready now. Every time we have gone to the Treasury we have been told, “Oh, that won’t have any effect immediately.” That argument just puts off the day on which plans are implemented. The Government’s plan is not working, and we can put forward plans that would get the country back to work and also help to reduce the deficit much more effectively than the Government’s failed plans are.

Oral Answers to Questions

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Tuesday 6th September 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hoban]

In our first Budget we were able to reduce corporation tax and set out a clear path to reduce it over the lifetime of this Parliament. We were also able to reverse Labour’s damaging jobs tax.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

Will the Minister draw to the attention of the Chancellor the fact that economic credibility affects all Treasury Ministers in due course, and that in his case it is affecting him rather earlier than he might have thought? Can he not see that, with a lack of growth, he will not hit his deficit reduction target? Without hitting that target, he will not realise his plan, and without his plan—which is already in shreds—he will lack credibility, too.

[Mr Hoban]

I wonder whether the hon. Gentleman’s remarks about the loss of credibility for Treasury Ministers reflect his own experience.

Global Economy

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Thursday 11th August 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

The right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right that we are taking more than 1 million low-paid people out of tax altogether, implementing the policy that the Liberal Democrats put forward at the general election. I also agree that what he describes is a vindication not just of the economic decisions we took, but of the political decisions we took. Let us reflect on the fact that a year ago we had a hung Parliament—the first time since the 1970s—and we formed a coalition Government. That was a difficult decision for both political parties involved, but given the political weakness in some other countries, which is driving a lot of the market concern about those countries, the political strength of the Government in Britain is a tribute to both those political parties, which set aside their political differences and came together in the national interest.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

Will the Chancellor—who persists in this bewildering implausibility that his plan is working—please tell the House by how much this financial year he will fall short of his target for deficit reduction?

[Mr Osborne]

The important difference between the hon. Gentleman's time in the Treasury and my time in the Treasury now is that we have the independent Office for Budget Responsibility making those announcements. It is not the Chancellor who makes those announcements from the Dispatch Box, for the very simple reason that by the end of the last Government, those Treasury pronouncements were so discredited that they were believed by absolutely no one. One of the important early decisions that we took to restore credibility in British public finances was the creation of the independent OBR, which makes those announcements.