Finance (No. 4) Bill

Diana Johnson Excerpts

Wednesday 18th April 2012 Commons Chamber

[Alan Johnson]

My hon. Friend raises a crucial point. I say the following to those on the Treasury Bench: this was meant to be a Budget for manufacturing; it was meant to be a Budget for growth in the British economy; it was meant to be a Budget that ended some of the anomalies in the north-south divide.

How can we go ahead with this measure, given that hon. Members in all parts of the House know the effect it will have on jobs and British manufacturing, and know that the savings of about £40 million to £45 million set out in the Treasury’s own document will be far exceeded by the costs in unemployment, waste and redundancies throughout the country? How can the Treasury possibly decide, after 40 years of looking at this, that this is the year in which it needs to put the price of caravans up? Again, its own figures show that that will lead to a 30% reduction in demand, although the National Caravan Council says that the real figure will be more like 75% or 80%. I believe Treasury officials now understand that their own analysis was deeply flawed.

[Diana Johnson (Kingston upon Hull North) (Lab)]

As a Hull MP, I wish to stress that we are facing job losses in so many private sector businesses, from BAE Systems, Comet and P&O to many others across the city. It sounds as if we may end up with thousands more job losses as a result of this measure, and we really cannot afford to see that happen in our city.

[Alan Johnson]

My hon. Friend is right because, on the Treasury’s assessment, more than 1,000 jobs are going to be lost. Some 90% of this manufacturing industry is based in east Yorkshire. I say to those on the Treasury Bench that this is not an industry that has asked for help from the Government—indeed, in 2008-09, it had to pull itself up by its bootstraps. Having done that, this is not a question of its asking the Government for any help; it is about asking the Treasury and the Government not to inflict on that industry a possible death blow to a great British manufacturing success story.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden) (Con)]

I want to associate myself with the comments made by my right hon. Friend the Member for East Yorkshire (Mr Knight), by my hon. Friend the Member for Beverley and Holderness (Mr Stuart), and by my right hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (Alan Johnson); I embarrass him again by calling him that. The proposal for VAT on static caravans will have a seriously deleterious effect on all of east Yorkshire, including Hull, dramatically cutting employment in the area at a time when we are trying to encourage growth and to balance the books. This proposal will do neither; in fact, it will reverse both.

This is a Finance Bill; the aim is to raise money. The latest estimates of the employment impact of this measure are that it will result in 4,000 to 7,500 job losses, of which 1,500 to 2,000 will be in the vicinity of our constituencies. The effect of that in financial terms is pretty straightforward to calculate. The Government estimate that they will raise £30 million to £40 million in VAT from this change. They will lose between £32 million and £65 million in lost national insurance, lost inland revenue, and extra welfare costs. It will therefore do the opposite of what the Budget is attempting to do. When I put that point to the Treasury, people said to me: “We don’t calculate things in that way.” That might sound silly, but there is a substantive point behind it—as I am sure that the shadow Chancellor, who is smiling, will know. Usually when one introduces a tax change that leads to job losses, people will, in due course, find another job. In east Yorkshire, two of the three Hull seats have dramatically high unemployment levels already, and the ratio of jobs available to unemployed people seeking them is one of the highest in the country. As a result, the resulting unemployment will not be short term but is likely to last for more than five years. We should calculate the effects of the proposal in this way because, for the foreseeable future, it will cost more than it will raise.

[Diana Johnson]

The right hon. Gentleman is making an excellent speech. Has he seen today’s report that 43 people in my constituency are chasing every vacancy? I set that figure alongside the comments that he is making.

[Mr Davis]

The hon. Lady makes a powerful point that I am not unfamiliar with. We have all been in similar battles over job losses at BAE in Brough and, in my constituency, job losses to the tune of 1,700 have been announced in the past six months.

This proposal does not stand up, on the Government’s own criteria. Accordingly, I support new clause 6 and will vote for it when it is put to the test.