High-Speed Rail

Debate between David Mowat and Frank Dobson

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Frank Dobson]

I know the Minister is an optimist, but if she thinks I am going to leap to the defence of Lord Adonis, she is a super-optimist. There was no connection—oh dear, the great strategists clean forgot. Now they have bodged a connection. There will be a third bore—if hon. Members will excuse the term—from Old Oak Common, coming out at Primrose Hill. The tunnel will be bored in parallel with the other two tunnels coming into Euston, and will proceed along the North London line to connect to HS1. So far, no one has explained whether it will connect to HS1 through the HS1 line, or by going into the HS1 part of St Pancras station. Perhaps the Minister can elucidate, but I doubt it because I do not think the people at HS2 quite know what they are talking about. Something else that did not appear in the announcement is that the proposal is for that tunnel, and the bit on the North London line, to proceed only at conventional speed. It will be HS2, then a slow bit, then HS1—and we are still supposed to regard the people who came up with that proposition as a set of railway strategists.

When HS1 was being built, I recall that the people from Bechtel looked at the possibility of using the North London line as the route into St Pancras. They decided that the cuttings, embankments and bridges along that line were so lousy that it would be cheaper to bore through to St Pancras, which was a considerable distance. When I pointed that out to someone from HS2, they were unaware of that small and apparently irrelevant fact.

If we talk of strategy, we must look at the promises made for the high-speed rail network. People have been told that it will be a great network, and that we will continue it further north. Under the strategy, the line will split at Birmingham and part of it will go to Manchester and eventually to Glasgow. In the east it will go first to Leeds and then to Newcastle and Edinburgh. The proposal is for the line to get as far as Birmingham by 2026. I, however, am confident enough to make two forecasts of my own about the London to Birmingham line. First, it will not be in operation by 2026, and secondly it will cost more than the present estimate. I am willing to take bets from any hon. Members present at the end of the debate. If I lose, they will no doubt have to pursue my grandchildren for the debt.

I do not pay attention to the prognostications, if there are any, about the likely weight of traffic on the route, or what the scheme is likely to bring in. As my hon. Friend the Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson) said, if the Office for Budget Responsibility cannot come up with a suggestion for what is likely to happen at the end of the current year, there are slim chances of anyone—whether for, against or doubtful about the project—coming up with an accurate prognostication about what will happen in 2025-26 or, in the case of Leeds and Manchester, 2035 or 2040. Then there are Glasgow and Edinburgh. My grandchildren, who now reappear in this story, are likely to go on the train from London to Glasgow using their senior railcards; that is the time scale we are talking about.

[David Mowat]

The right hon. Gentleman speaks well about the difficulties in forecasting, particularly far into the future. That is why it is extremely important that the business case for the scheme is based on a conservative estimate. Does he admit that while long-distance rail travel has increased by 5% per annum over the past 15 years, in its business case, the Department for Transport has put that increase at 1.4% over the next decade or so? That is pretty conservative.

[Frank Dobson]

I do not wish to be rude, but the only thing to add to the hon. Gentleman’s contribution is, “Or I will eat my hat.” I do not have the faintest idea which of those estimates is true, and the odds are that neither will prove true. He knows that as well as I do. We should not be whacking in all this money on the basis of estimates that nobody can back up. All we are really faced with is the proposition that we should support a fast shuttle between Birmingham and London.

High Speed 2

Debate between David Mowat and Frank Dobson

Tuesday 23rd November 2010 Westminster Hall

[David Mowat]

I accept that. Indeed, where we have areas of high unemployment, the ability of people who live there to enjoy their environment is much less than it would be otherwise. The Government also have a duty to take into account the impact on prosperity and employment throughout the country.

I want to make a couple of slightly more detailed points. It is important that whatever we build is linked to Heathrow. Those are probably the Government’s plans, but it seems to be absolute nonsense to build a high-speed rail link to the north and not to link properly Manchester airport and Heathrow, so as to see some of the traffic from Heathrow move.

I am of the view that the line needs to go to Euston and should not stop and link to Crossrail. I am not an expert, but Euston seems to be close to the business centres of London, so the impact of achieving that would be substantial.

I would like to see a spur to Warrington and Preston as soon as possibly, but I realise that the Minister might not think that that is her highest priority.

With reference to an earlier point, not linking High Speed 2 with High Speed 1 would be absurd. In my understanding of the initial business case for High Speed 1, the reason why we went into St Pancras in the first place was to allow that line, eventually, to go north. We are now building a High Speed 2 line to the north, so it ought to be linked.

Finally, it is very important that the Government maintain their commitment to the plan and realise that they are the Government for the entire country, and the entire country needs this.

[Frank Dobson]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[David Mowat]

I have finished now, so I will not give way.