High-Speed Rail

Craig Whittaker Excerpts

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Andrea Leadsom]

I am struggling to follow some of my hon. Friend’s numbers, because I think that he might be looking at the numbers from the original business case, not from the current one. I do not want to address his points specifically because those numbers do not quite register with me. I apologise for that.

Passenger forecasts are another major assumption in the business case, relying on a 216% rise in demand for train travel. That figure remains wildly optimistic, in spite of being downgraded from the original business case, in which growth of 267% was forecast. The Department for Transport’s own national travel survey shows that overall transport demand is no longer growing with GDP. Eurostar’s passenger numbers in 2009 had reached only 37% of the level that was forecast, as a result of building the HS1 link. The Public Accounts Committee took evidence from the Department for Transport on that point and was reassured by it that lessons had been learned and that any future major project would factor in more severe downside assumptions—that has clearly not been the case. The only comparable forecasts for long distance rail travel by 2036 are from Network Rail, which predicts a range of growth of 45% to 89%, versus that forecast by HS2 Ltd in its original business case of 133% growth by 2033. I urge the Department for Transport to look closely again at that assumption.

Of course, in cash terms HS2 will never pay for itself. Once built, only one third of the total claimed benefits will be captured through fares. The value of the net revenues once it has been built—with a presumption of fares of £14 billion, less operating costs of £6 billion over a 60-year project life—will cover only less than half of the capital costs. At a time when families up and down the country are feeling the pinch, we must make sure that infrastructure projects offer value for money. Many people would argue that not a penny will be spent until 2015 anyway, but between 2009 and 2015 the Department for Transport expects to spend around £1 billion just on preparing the way for high-speed rail.

Secondly, on the environmental impact, HS2 Ltd itself says that the project is, at best, carbon neutral. It predicts that 65% of passengers will either transfer from existing rail services, where faster trains inevitably increase carbon emissions, or are additional new journeys as a result of the faster trains, which will also increase emissions. The shorter journeys by air that will transfer to HS2, will ironically, as my hon. Friend the Member for North Warwickshire (Dan Byles) said, provide more capacity at our regional airports for cheaper long-haul flights. It is estimated that the modal shift from car to high-speed train will be approximately 7%. In fact, HS2 Ltd forecasts that the traffic volumes on the M1 will be reduced by only 2% as a result of HS2. So, it is not green. There will also be a significant environmental impact during construction, as well as permanently, to the English countryside, wildlife and historic sites.

Thirdly and fourthly, on the prospects for job creation and regeneration, the Department for Transport claims that HS2 will create 30,000 new jobs. Some 9,000 will be construction jobs and are likely to be temporary. The rest are skewed towards property development and retail near stations.

[Craig Whittaker (Calder Valley) (Con)]

It is not often that I am at odds with my hon. Friend and her point of view. However, only yesterday 90 business leaders from Yorkshire published an open letter in the Yorkshire Post, which sent a resounding message to the Government and said very clearly that high-speed rail is vital for Yorkshire’s success in the future. Who is right: the 90 business leaders in Yorkshire, or my hon. Friend?

[Andrea Leadsom]

I agree with my hon. Friend that it is very unusual for us to disagree. The reality is that we all share the same goal: to regenerate our economy and to provide good value for money to the taxpayer. What we are arguing about is how we achieve that. Surely my hon. Friend would agree that HS2 is not the only possible means by which to achieve that regeneration. We have to look at what gives us the best value for money.

Up to 70% of the new jobs created by HS2 will benefit London, where Old Oak Common is believed to be the best location for regeneration. I am sure that many hon. Members across the House do not feel that regeneration benefits to London represent good value for money. In fact, research on capital expenditure in the wider economy suggests that the cost of creating one job in the first phase is about four times the cost of capital expenditure in the wider economy. Again, I urge the Department for Transport to consider whether the project will create jobs. Would it be better to spend the money elsewhere and get four times the number of jobs in the wider economy?

--- Later in debate ---

[Dan Byles]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for making that point. The very fact that the Minister referred to indicative figures—they are out there in the public domain, are causing concern, and are often quoted—shows that we have not yet had sufficient discussion or debate about the impact. From a sedentary position, hon. Members have rubbished some of the claims for Rail Package 2, and say that work has been done and shows that some of our claims for it are simply not true. Where is that work? Why is it not being published? Why is the Department for Transport not addressing the questions that opponents of HS2 are asking? Instead, it is addressing motives, and using words such as “nimby” and so on instead of addressing arguments. The Department should address those questions, but it is not doing so adequately.

Of more concern is the fact that there is evidence from studies of existing high-speed rail services in other countries that, far from pushing economic growth from the centre to the regions, they may have the opposite effect. They may suck economic activity from the regions toward the centre. There is a real danger of economic growth draining away from, for example, Birmingham and the surrounding region towards London. The Research Institute of Applied Economics at the university of Barcelona studied existing high-speed rail networks in Japan, France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Its findings should cause policy makers in the UK to sit up and take notice. It suggested that smaller cities linked to larger cities by high-speed rail lines sometimes suffer from a negative agglomeration effect. That may take several forms, but the report is very clear about the risks for smaller cities such as Birmingham when linked to a larger city such as London.

I shall quote briefly from the report. It states:

“It is consistently reported that HSR does not generate any new activities nor does it attract new firms and investment, but rather it helps to consolidate and promote ongoing processes as well as to facilitate intra-organizational journeys for those firms and institutions for whom mobility is essential.”

It continues:

“In fact, for regions and cities whose economic conditions compare unfavorably with those of their neighbors, a connection to the HST line may even result in economic activities being drained away and an overall negative impact”

[Craig Whittaker]

The business people of Yorkshire are not particularly interested in rebalancing on a regional basis. All they want is a balanced playing field. It is unacceptable for Yorkshire businesses when competing in our capital in our country that it takes longer to get here than it takes the French and Belgians.

[Dan Byles]

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention. It sounds ideal to suggest that linking the two systems will benefit the regions, but the university of Barcelona looked at high-speed rail systems on the continent, and found that the benefits often flow the other way. Economic activity might drain away from the north towards the south.